Market to Market - Market Analysis

A perceived bearish USDA report and cancelled orders sent the grains downward and almost like clockwork buying returned on the price breaks. March wheat dropped 5 cents while the nearby corn contract fell by a dime. Even with the Chinese on holiday, buyers saw value in a price drop of 60 cents in 50 hours. Nearby soybeans gained a nickel.  March soybean meal declined $3.30 per ton. May cotton expanded by $4.64 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, March Class III milk futures shed 17 cents. Green in the livestock sector, April cattle added $1.40. March feeders improved $2.57.

The export totals for U.S. corn set a record, keeping the bulls somewhat fed as part of the trade. For the week, March wheat dropped 22 cents while the nearby corn contract gained 2 cents. Soybeans stayed near recent highs as the weather turned wetter in South America and export news kept moving on the ticker. Nearby soybeans fell 3 cents.  March soybean meal declined 50 cents per ton. March cotton expanded by $2.10 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, March Class III milk futures gained 6 cents. In the livestock sector, April cattle improved $1.93. March feeders added 55 cents.

China keeps buying U.S. grain and volatility reigns supreme in the commodity markets. March wheat gained 29 cents while the nearby corn contract skyrocketed 47 cents or 9 percent. The rains have returned to South America while U.S. soybeans are still selling to export locations. Nearby soybeans improved 58 cents.  March soybean meal rose $9.40 per ton. March cotton shrank by 92 cents per hundredweight. More losses in the dairy parlor as February Class III milk futures dropped $1.06. A mixed week in the livestock sector. April cattle fell 68 cents. March feeders dropped $6.42.

South American rains, profit taking and fund adjustment pulled the market lower this week. March wheat lost 41 cents while the nearby corn contract dropped 31 cents. The big sell off happened in the soy complex. Nearby soybeans plummeted $1.05.  March soybean meal went down $41.60 per ton. March cotton expanded 86 cents per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, February Class III milk futures gave back last week’s gains and then some with a $2.72 sell off or a drop of 14 percent. A course reversal in the livestock sector. February cattle gained $3.95. March feeders jumped $8.32.

Hello, I’m Paul Yeager. A blizzard of news this week as a storm blew across the nation’s midsection and President Trump was impeached for a second time. The economy as a whole gave another indication of its direction and if inflation is on the horizon. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4 percent as a hike in gasoline prices fueled the increase. Wholesale prices measured in the Producer Price Index gained 0.3 percent, again, driven higher by energy. Retail sales fell for the third straight month. The mark declined 0.7 percent.

Grain traders had an epiphany of sorts this week as 2021 picked up where the old year left off. Continued drier weather in South America was paired with the release of private estimates just ahead of a stack of USDA reports. March wheat lost 2 cents while the nearby corn contract added 12 cents. There was more investment in the soy complex, even as China cancelled some of its sales. Nearby soybeans jumped 64 cents.  March soybean meal went up $10.20 per ton. March cotton expanded $1.65 per hundredweight. In the dairy parlor, February Class III milk futures skyrocketed $2.18 or 13 percent.

Yeager: 

We are producing this program on Wednesday and the grains were lifted by an extension of the run up in soybeans in this holiday-shortened week. March wheat gained 22 cents while the nearby corn contract added a dime. Until further notice, it appears the soy complex is stuck in a loop of South American weather and Chinese buying fundamentals. Nearby soybeans improved 39 cents.  January soybean meal went up $15.70 per ton. March cotton shrank 90 cents per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, January Class III milk futures increased $1.40. A mixed week in the livestock sector.

Exports picked up and took the corn market with it. March wheat lost six cents while the nearby corn contract added 14 cents. An Argentine worker strike combined with dry weather and a run on soy oil pushed soybeans through the $12 resistance threshold resulting in a 60 cent gain. January soybean meal skyrocketed $25.20 per ton. March cotton expanded $2.96 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, January Class III milk futures shed 68 cents. An up week in the livestock sector. February cattle improved $1.55. January feeders added 67 cents.

Grain Markets were mixed overnight as traders continue to adjust to yesterday's USDA numbers. In light of the report, many are focusing on South American weather, demand headlines, and the holidays. March wheat skyrocketed the last two days of trade to finish higher for the week by 39 cents while the nearby corn contract added 3 cents. The weather report took the wind from the January soybean sails, resulting in a 3 cent loss. January soybean meal declined $5.20 per ton. March cotton expanded $2.53 per hundredweight. In the dairy parlor, January Class III milk futures improved 59 cents.

China kept buying grain, just not from the U.S., as the lack of action weighed on the trade. March wheat plummeted 31 cents while the nearby corn contract dropped 13 cents. A wetter trend in Brazil watered down the soy complex. The January soybean contract fell 29 cents. January soybean meal declined $10.80 per ton. March cotton shrank $1.69 per hundredweight. In the dairy parlor, January Class III milk futures declined 59 cents. A down week in the livestock sector. February cattle fell 85 cents. January feeders weakened a nickel. And the February lean hog contract shed 67 cents.

This program is being produced on Tuesday ahead of two trading days. So we're going to give you the closes for two days, March wheat gained 18 cents on the week while the nearby corn contract added 4 cents. South American weather remained dry earlier in the week, fueling a rally that at one point touched $12. The January soybean contract increased 10 cents, January soybean meal, expanded $2.20 per ton. March cotton gained 2 cents per hundred weight.

The return of curfews and shutdowns for Main Street businesses to stem COVID-19 spread weighed on the trade. For the week, December wheat dropped a quarter cent while the nearby corn contract added 13 cents. The South American weather report turning wetter tempered some of this week’s soybean rally. The January soybean contract jumped 33 cents. December soybean meal increased $5.60 per ton. March cotton gained $2.56 per hundredweight. In the dairy parlor, December Class III milk futures declined $1.70. A mixed week in the livestock sector. February cattle lost $1.58.

The USDA confirmed what many in the Grain Belt believed - there was less crop in the fields and in the bins. The bulls mostly loved the news. For the week, December wheat dropped 9 cents while the nearby corn contract improved 4 cents. Rationing entered the soybean market lexicon as higher export numbers lightened the stocks-to-use ratio. The January soybean contract jumped 47 cents. December soybean meal increased $5.70 per ton. December cotton contracted 16 cents per hundredweight. In the dairy parlor, December Class III milk futures declined 97 cents.

Naomi Blohm discusses the commodity markets.