Market to Market - Market Analysis

Algorithms and speculators made headlines while weather and policy debates factored into the trade. For the week, July wheat lost 18 cents while the nearby corn contract shed 29 cents. A record day for soybeans, lower, as the biggest one-day fall on the contract happened Thursday. For the week, the July contract plummeted $1.13. July meal fell $9.90 per ton. December cotton decreased by $2.74 per hundredweight. In the dairy parlor, July Class III milk weakened by 82 cents. A mixed week in the livestock sector. August cattle improved $1.52. August feeders added $3.85.

A wheat belt tour revealed the potential for a large bounty while China made major U.S. corn purchases. For the week, July wheat fell another 33 cents while the nearby corn contract added 16 cents. Big China sales, more acreage and rainfall weighed on the soy complex. The July contract dropped by 60 cents. July meal lost $19.60 per ton. July cotton expanded by 39 cents per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, June Class III milk decreased by $1.27. An up week in the livestock sector. June cattle increased $2.38. August feeders put on $2.55. And the June lean hog contract gained $5.50.

Another volatile week of dramatic price swings on weather and USDA reports which may have sent the longs to the exits with dramatic sell-offs three of five days this week. For the week, July wheat fell 55 cents while the nearby corn contract plummeted 89 cents or 12 percent. Beans remain in the teens but predictions of near-trend line yields and rain in the U.S. dropped the July contract by 4 cents. July meal lost $23.30. July cotton shrank by $7.23 per hundredweight. In the dairy parlor, June Class III milk gained 44 cents. A mixed week in the livestock sector.

The grains again shook off poor export news and traded at levels not experienced since 2013. The move higher was aided by concerns over weather in both North and South America. For the week, July wheat added 27 cents while the nearby corn contract jumped up 59 cents. China is still in the market for soybeans and the supply risk remains. July soybeans improved 56 cents. July meal gained $15.70. July cotton expanded by $1.58 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, May Class III milk fell 40 cents. A mixed week in the livestock sector as June cattle dropped 55 cents.

Grains traded in 8 year highs as the same components of weather, demand and China stayed fused. For the week, July wheat added 23 cents while the nearby corn contract leaped 41 cents higher or 6 percent. It is not clear if the bulls have pulled an “Irish Goodbye” in the soybean complex, but the technicals spent part of the week possibly signaling their quiet departure. July soybeans improved 19 cents. July meal added 30 cents. July cotton shrank by 72 cents per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, May Class III milk rose 31 cents.

Weather is going to be a factor the next few weeks. The U.S. and South American drought stories are expanding while cold weather slowed work in the Grain Belt. For the week, July wheat added 57 cents while the nearby corn contract skyrocketed 59 cents or 10 percent. The soy oil market flourished while the July contract flirted with levels not traded since 2014. July soybeans improved 94 cents. July meal increased $19.40. July cotton expanded by $3.77 per hundredweight.

Market to Market is everywhere you are! Subscribe to Market to Market on YouTube, find us on the PBS Video App to stream on-demand and add our three podcasts on your favorite podcasting app.

Yeager: For the week, May wheat jumped 28 cents while the nearby corn contract added 18 cents. The soybean complex is looking for a story to break out of the range trade. May soybeans gained a penny. May meal lost $9. May cotton expanded by $4.45 per hundredweight. In the dairy parlor, May Class III milk futures widened by $1.01. A green week in the livestock sector. June cattle expanded 3 cents. May feeders put on 40 cents. And the June lean hog contract increased $2.62. In the currency markets, the U.S. Dollar index declined 78 ticks. May crude oil shed $1.96 per barrel.

A report from USDA that shocked traders, jolted the market higher as the prospective plantings report came in way below expectations. For the week, May wheat lost 2 cents while the nearby corn contract added 7 cents. A limit up move on Wednesday was fueled by fewer than predicted acres and a lower than expected carryout. It was barely enough to keep the shortened trading week in the green. May soybeans gained 2 cents. May meal improved $6.20. May cotton shrank by $2.43 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, May Class III milk futures expanded 88 cents.

The trade moved sideways as positions are starting to solidify ahead of next week’s planting intentions report. For the week, May wheat lost 14 cents while the nearby corn contract dropped a nickel. A break in crude oil spilled over into the soybean complex. May soybeans shed 16 cents. May meal dropped $3.90. May cotton shrank by $4.30 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, April Class III milk futures added 4 cents. An up week in the livestock sector, June cattle gained $3.10. May feeders rose $5.20. And the June lean hog contract jumped $5. In the currency markets, the U.S.

China booked nearly 121 million bushels in U.S. corn this week while meeting with U.S. officials in Alaska. Diplomats offered sharply different and pointed views of one another in the first meeting since Joe Biden took office. For the week, May wheat lost 12 cents while the nearby corn contract jumped 19 cents. Better weather in South America and China’s pledge to cut back on meal in their feed rations weighed on the soy complex. Nearby soybeans needed a 24 cent gain in the last session to improve 3 cents on the week. May soybean meal added $7.20 per ton.

A government report was again met with volatile swings as exports and weather were traded for much of the week. May wheat lost 15 cents while the nearby corn contract fell a penny. Soy oil pushed the complex higher as meal struggled to keep pace as the scope of the African swine fever outbreak in China continues to grow. Nearby soybeans declined 9 cents.  May soybean meal dropped $14.70 per ton. May cotton expanded by 36 cents per hundredweight. In the dairy parlor, March Class III milk futures added 15 cents. A green week in the livestock sector. April cattle improved 17 cents.

Weather in South America, rumors of buying by China, and positioning before next week’s WASDE made for volatile markets. For the week, as of noon on Friday, May wheat lost 7 cents while the nearby corn contract fell 8 cents. Renewed Chinese buying and a lack of rain in Argentina made for a late week surge in the soy complex. Nearby soybeans improved 18 cents.  May soybean meal dropped $6 per ton. May cotton shrank $1.63 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, April Class III milk futures gained 15 cents. It was all down arrows in the livestock sector. April cattle fell $1.17.

Export sales reports took the wind out of many markets this week as lower totals sent some long contract holders for the exits. For the week, May wheat gained a nickel while the nearby corn contract added six cents. Another large outbreak of African swine fever in China is likely going to curtail the demand for U.S. soybeans. Nearby soybeans improved 24 cents.  May soybean meal dropped $2.20 per ton. May cotton shrank by $1.65 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, March Class III milk futures declined 5 cents. A mixed week in the livestock sector, April cattle fell $3.68.

Weather caused different problems domestically and globally this week impacting the trade. March wheat improved 14 cents while the nearby corn contract added four cents. The Chinese returned from holiday, but the full buying spree did not. Nearby soybeans gained a nickel.  March soybean meal dropped $2.90 per ton. May cotton expanded by $1.82 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, March Class III milk futures declined 19 cents. Red in the livestock sector, April cattle shed $1.50. March feeders fell $1.72. And the April lean hog contract lost 70 cents.