Market to Market - Market Analysis

USDA reported bigger stocks in corn and a smaller 2021 wheat crop. For the week, December wheat added 32 cents while the nearby corn contract improved 15 cents. A soybean sell-off came after the larger stocks number fed the bears. The November soybean contract lost 39 cents. December meal shed $12.10 per ton. December cotton skyrocketed $8.54 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, November Class III milk futures jumped higher $1.28 or nearly 8 percent. A very mixed week in the livestock sector. December cattle dropped $2.95. November feeders weakened $5.68.

Combine yield monitors appear to be across the board as harvest pressure and Russian rumors of rationing quotas on exports influenced the trade. For the week, December wheat added 15 cents while the nearby corn contract lost a penny. Harvest weather looked good as combines gobbled up acres while still looking for a fully reopened gulf to ship their product. The November soybean contract weakened 1 cent. December meal shed $3.20 per ton. December cotton strengthened $3.66 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, October Class III milk futures improved 16 cents.

Harvest lows appeared to be set early in the week while a post USDA report rally and the run-on milling week push the trade higher for the week. December wheat added 20 cents, while the nearby corn contract improved a dime. Two geopolitical alliances, one with one without China is pressuring American allies in the trade arena and the soy complex reflected the news first. The November soybean contract dropped 3 cents December meal lost 30 cents per ton, December cotton subtracted, a $1.17 per hundred weight. Over in the dairy parlor, October class three milk futures fell 15 cents.

John Roach discusses the commodity markets.

USDA announced a change in their September Crop Production report that could ultimately update planted and harvest acreage estimates. The market is moving ahead of next week’s report and also digesting ample rain and shipping problems in Louisiana. For the week, December wheat subtracted six cents while the nearby corn contract declined 30 cents. Timely rains has some saying it could help fill pods, but others contend it is too little too late. The November soybean contract shed 31 cents. December meal lost $11.40 per ton. December cotton fell 82 cents per hundredweight.

The U.S. dollar weakened following the Fed’s announcement they will more likely than not begin tapering bond purchases. The lower dollar helped some of the commodities this week, as did a hot and dry weather pattern for much of the Grain Belt. For the week, December wheat added four cents while the nearby corn contract improved 17 cents. China’s interest and purchases in the soy complex were enough to overcome Friday’s trade lower. The November soybean contract expanded 33 cents. December meal lost $2.50 cents per ton. December cotton increased $1.70 per hundredweight.

Widespread rain chances and a private estimate of a larger crop pressured the commodity markets. For the week, September wheat fell 48 cents while the nearby corn contract dropped 30 cents. An increased crop size prediction was not enough to off-set sales to China in the soy complex. The September soybean contract declined 79 cents. September meal shed $4.30 per ton. December cotton declined $1.18 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, September Class III milk lost 49 cents. An up week in the livestock sector. October cattle gained 92 cents. September feeders added $2.42.

After a several days of chopping around, a bullish WASDE and sales to China moved the commodity markets higher by the final session. For the week, September wheat jumped 43 cents while the nearby corn contract gained 13 cents. Bullish yield and ending stocks news in the report lit a fire under the soy complex as the September soybean contract moved 29 cents higher. September meal gained $1.80 per ton. December cotton added $2.62 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, September Class III milk gained $1.13. More mixed news in the livestock sector. October cattle gained a quarter.

Chinese buying, private predictions of lower yields, and chances for rainy weather made for a mixed finish in the commodity markets. For the week, September wheat gained 15 cents as the nearby corn contract added 8 cents. Soybeans had a volatile week as the soy complex battled the same factors which pushed the September contract lower by 11 cents. September meal gained $4.50 per ton. December cotton added $2.31 per hundredweight. In the dairy parlor, September Class III milk gained 13 cents. Another mixed week in the livestock sector as October cattle gained 68 cents.

Rumors of renewed buying by China and weather made for mixed markets. For the week, September wheat gained 11 cents while the nearby corn contract fell 9 cents. A large purchase of soybeans scheduled for an unknown destination and a dry 10-day forecast left the September contract flat by the final session. September meal dropped $1.80 per ton. December cotton lost 54 cents per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, September Class III milk fell 58 cents. A mixed week in the livestock sector. October cattle gained a nickel. September feeders shed 73 cents.

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A smaller global wheat crop fueled a rally even as timely rains fell in portions of the Corn Belt. For the week, September wheat rocketed higher by 78 cents or nearly 13 percent while the nearby corn contract added 27 cents. Technical buying coupled with less rain than forecast exacerbated the tight supply situation in the soy complex. For the week, the August contract expanded 76 cents. August meal improved $9.10 per ton. December cotton enlarged $2.22 per hundredweight. In the dairy parlor, August Class III milk lost 78 cents.

Good wheat harvest yields along with rain in the current and extended forecasts sent many bulls to the exits as the corn crop entered pollination. For the holiday-shortened week, September wheat dropped 38 cents while the nearby corn contract plummeted 63 cents or more than 10 percent. If rain makes grain, precipitation ends participation by those looking for long positions in the soy complex. For the week, the August contract dropped 54 cents. August meal decreased $27.40 per ton. December cotton improved 74 cents per hundredweight.

The excitement from a bullish acreage report faded at week’s end as an appeals court vacated an EPA rule on selling E15 year-round. For the week, September wheat added 12 cents while the nearby corn contract jumped 62 cents or nearly 12 percent. The soy complex responded with substantial moves higher on an unchanged acreage report before giving way to some profit taking. For the week, the August contract gained $1.31. August meal increased $32.60 per ton. December cotton shed 21 cents per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, August Class III milk added 11 cents.

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