Market to Market - Market Analysis

Even with weather, potential sales to Asia and a weaker dollar the commodity markets were relatively quiet. For the week, December wheat lost 2 cents, while the nearby corn contract gained 3 cents. Dry weather in Brazil and potential sales to China did little to fire up the soy complex as the January contract closed two cents higher. December meal improved 60 cents per ton. December cotton dropped 67 cents per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, November Class III milk futures increased 68 cents, to a 5-year high.

Drier conditions hampered one crop, while helping the harvest of another. For the week, December wheat lost 15 cents, the first weekly loss in 12 weeks, while the nearby corn contract fell 4 cents. The soy complex dealt with China/U.S. trade talks. The result was a 14 cent loss in the November contract. December meal shed $5.20 per ton. December cotton declined 26 cents per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, November Class III milk futures gained 92 cents. The livestock sector finished mixed as the December cattle contract added $2.45. November feeders improved $2.53.

The market wrestled with weather in South America, a stronger dollar, and Chinese purchases from other markets. For the week, December wheat soared 24 cents while the nearby corn contract fell 7 cents. The soy complex cooled off in light of a more expensive dollar and a threat by China to retaliate if the U.S. passed a bill supporting Hong Kong protestors. The result was a 2 cent loss in the November contract. December meal cut $2.30 per ton. December cotton gained $1.28 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, November Class III milk futures lost 20 cents.

Weather, optimism over a potential trade deal and Thursday’s WASDE report moved the commodity market. For the week, December wheat jumped 18 cents while the nearby corn contract rocketed 13 cents. Good export numbers, a friendly report and potential sales to China bumped the November soybean contract 20 cents. December meal rose $7.10 per ton. December cotton gained $2.21 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, November Class III milk futures improved 68 cents.

Hello, I’m Delaney Howell. The USDA has been the subject of scorn and mockery over the 2019 crop but, at the end of the day, the commodity market still chews on the information the government provides. We’ve assembled our Fall Roundtable to breakdown the most recent numbers. Joining me is Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing. Elaine Kub, author of Mastering the Grain Markets. Ted Seifried of the Zaner Group. And Darin Newsom of Darin Newsom Analysis. Everyone, welcome. But before we get to that, let's look at what happened this week.

Dry weather coupled with pre-report positioning off-set dramatic movement in the markets. For the week, December wheat improved 3 cents while the nearby corn contract gained a penny. Near-perfect weather to finish the soybean crop limited the soy complex as the November soybean contract was even. December meal increased a dime per ton. December cotton rose 38 cents per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, October Class III milk futures lost 50 cents. Trade news bolstered the livestock sector as December cattle jumped $11.23. November feeders put on $3.78.

The commodity markets were mostly steady as demand bears pushed back against supply bulls. For the week, December wheat was flat while the nearby corn contract gained 2 cents. As the threat of a September freeze fades and Chinese trade negotiators backed out of a U.S. farm tour the November soybean contract fell back 16 cents. December meal lost $6.50 per ton. December cotton dropped $1.76 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, October Class III milk futures lost 50 cents. The livestock sector ended mixed as October cattle added $1.27. October feeders put on $4.62.

The trade fed on goodwill gestures between China and the United States, a USDA report, and drier weather conditions. For the week, December wheat was up 20 cents while the nearby corn contract gained 13 cents. China’s removal of a 30 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans helped extend a rally in the soy complex. The November soybean contract rocketed higher 41 cents. December meal added $8.50 per ton. December cotton improved $3.70 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, October Class III milk futures gained $1.44. The livestock sector ended in the green as October cattle improved $3.20.

The markets reacted in different ways to this week’s trade war news. Stocks went up and commodities went down. For the week, December wheat was flat while the nearby corn contract fell 14 cents. Weather and news of October trade talks with China did little to interest traders as the November soybean contract fell 11 cents. December meal dropped $2.30 per ton. December cotton lost a quarter per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, October Class III milk futures gained ten cents. The livestock sector ended mixed as October cattle shed $4.05. October feeders put on a dime.

Cool weather and a presidential promise prevented some commodities from adding to last week’s losses. For the week, December wheat lost 15 cents while the nearby corn contract was 2 cents higher. The potential for renewed U.S.-China negotiations was combined with questions about the length of the growing season to give the November soybean contract a 13 cent bump. December meal lost a dime per ton. December cotton added 62 cents per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, October Class III milk futures gained 22 cents. The livestock sector remained mixed as October cattle shed 47 cents.

Results from the U.S. crop tour were eclipsed by new Chinese tariff fears and President Trump’s order for all U.S. companies to immediately look for an alternative to China. For the week, September wheat gained a nickel while the nearby corn contract fell 11 cents. Renewed threats of higher tariffs compounded losses in the soybean market as the September soybean contract dropped 24 cents. September meal lost $5.00 per ton. December cotton dropped $1.92 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, September Class III milk futures lost 41 cents.

The August WASDE set fire to the trade as the funds liquidated positions crushing commodity prices. All three major commodities managed to rebound from weekly lows. For the week, September wheat nosedived 29 cents while the nearby corn contract plunged 39 cents. The WASDE combined with good weather across the Upper Midwest sent the soy complex plummeting. The September soybean contract was able to claw its way back for a 12 cent loss.       September meal lost $3.60 per ton. December cotton expanded $1.23 per hundredweight.

Dry weather, a planned trade meeting and anticipation of Monday’s report helped the commodity markets with a strong finish. For the week, September wheat gained 9 cents while the nearby corn contract rose 11 cents. Prospects for a meeting between President’s Trump and Xi and short-covering before Monday’s WASDE pushed the September soybean contract 23 cents higher. September meal climbed $4 per ton. December cotton declined 52 cents per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, September Class III milk futures added a dime. The livestock sector was mixed. October cattle cut $1.08.

President Trump’s announcement of increased tariffs and growing weather across the country pressured the commodity markets lower. For the week, September wheat fell a nickel while the nearby corn contract plummeted 15 cents. The President’s threat to enact tariffs on another set of Chinese goods on September 1st sent the September soybean market on a 33 cent tumble. September meal fell $10.40 per ton. December cotton declined a $5.12 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, September Class III milk futures fell 20 cents. The livestock sector took it on the chin.

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