Macro Musings

(REBROADCAST EPISODE) In this week’s special episode, David discusses the economics of Christmas with Laura Birg, a post-doctoral researcher at the University of Goettingen, and Anna Goeddke, a professor of economics at the ESB Business School at Reutlingen University. Topics include the dead-weight loss of gift-giving, Christmas’ effects on seasonal GDP, increases in alcohol consumption, and the effect of secularization on Christmas celebrations. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ David’s Twitter: @davidbeckworth Original episode: https://soundcloud.com/macro-musings/birggoeddeke Anna’s VoxEU profile: voxeu.org/users/annagoeddeke0 Anna’s Twitter: @annagoeddeke Laura’s University of Goettingen profile: www.uni-goettingen.de/en/362254.html Related links: “Christmas Economics – A Sleigh Ride” by Laura Birg and Anna Goeddke (2014) papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?a…stract_id=2526055 “The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle” by Robert Barsky and Jeffrey Miron (1988) www.nber.org/papers/w2688 “The Business Cycle Effects of Christmas” by YI Wen (2001) www.discuto.io/sites/default/fil…christmas2010.pdf We Wish you a Merry Christmas Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 License creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

Ricardo J. Caballero is a professor of economics at MIT and is widely published in the fields of macroeconomics and international economics. Today, he joins the show to discuss his work on the “Safe Assets Shortage Conundrum” and why this is important to macroeconomic growth and stability. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Ricardo Caballero’s MIT profile: https://economics.mit.edu/faculty/caball “The Safe Asset Shortage Conundrum” by Ricardo J. Caballero, Emmanuel Farhi, and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas http://www.jstor.org/stable/44321278?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents “Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand” by Ricardo J. Caballero, Emmanuel Farhi, and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20161108 “On the Macroeconomics of Asset Shortages” by Ricardo J. Caballero http://www.nber.org/papers/w12753

Stephen Williamson is a professor of economics at the University of Western Ontario and formerly served as a vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Today, Steve joins the show to discuss his work on “New Monetarism,” a research agenda emerging out of the monetarist tradition associated with Milton Friedman. David and Steve also discuss “Neo-Fisherism,” a counterintuitive view that higher interest rates may actually lead to higher inflation. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Stephen Williamson’s University of Western Ontario profile: http://economics.uwo.ca/people/faculty/williamson.html Stephen Williamson’s blog “New Monetarism”: http://newmonetarism.blogspot.com/ Stephen Williamson’s Twitter: @1954swilliamson Related links: “New Monetarist Economics: Models* by Stephen D. Williamson and Randall Wright https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr443.pdf “Neo-Fisherism: A Radical Idea, or the Most Obvious Solution to the Low-Inflation Problem?” by Stephen D. Williamson https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/july-2016/neo-fisherism-a-radical-idea-or-the-most-obvious-solution-to-the-low-inflation-problem *Macroeconomics* by Stephen D. Williamson https://www.amazon.com/Macroeconomics-5th-Stephen-D-Williamson/dp/0132991330

William A. Barnett is the Oswald Distinguished Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Kansas and Director of the Center for Financial Stability. Today, Bill joins the show to discuss his work on better measurement of monetary aggregates in the economy. David and Bill also discuss Bill’s book *Getting It Wrong,* which argues that old simple-sum aggregates of the money supply are obsolete and that more sophisticated aggregates (called Divisia aggregates) are more appropriate in making decisions related to monetary policy. In Bill’s view, better financial data and better measurement of monetary aggregates would have averted the recent financial crisis. Finally, Bill also explains how he went from being a rocket scientist to a macroeconomist! David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth William Barnett’s University of Kansas profile: https://economics.ku.edu/william-barnett The Center for Financial Stability homepage: http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/ *Getting It Wrong: How Faulty Monetary Statistics Undermine the Fed, the Financial System, and the Economy* by William Barnett https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/getting-it-wrong

Caroline Baum is an economics columnist at MarketWatch and formerly was a writer for Bloomberg and Dow Jones. Today, she joins the show to discuss how she became a financial journalist as a non-economics major as well as her recent columns on monetary policy and what Treasury bond yields are predicting about the future. She also shares her thoughts on why the debt ceiling should be abolished. Finally, Caroline and David discuss Jerome Powell and Fed leadership in the age of Trump. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Caroline Baum’s MarketWatch archive: https://www.marketwatch.com/topics/journalists/caroline-baum Caroline Baum’s Twitter: @cabaum1 Related links: “Bonds are from Venus; Stocks are from Mars” by Caroline Baum https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bonds-are-from-venus-stocks-are-from-mars-2017-11-14?mg=prod/accounts-mw “It’s Time to Get Rid of the Debt Ceiling” by Caroline Baum https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-to-get-rid-of-the-debt-ceiling-2017-09-07 “Fed Flunks Econ 101: Understanding Inflation” by Caroline Baum https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-flunks-econ-101-understanding-inflation-2017-10-18 “The Federal Reserve is Peddling ‘Tinkering Economics’ " by Caroline Baum https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-federal-reserve-is-peddling-tinker-bell-economics-2017-09-19

Nicholas Bloom is a professor of economics at Stanford University and is the co-director of the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship program at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Today, Nick joins the show to discuss his work on the causes and effects of economic uncertainty as well as how to measure uncertainty in an economy. David and Nick also discuss why productivity has slowed down in recent decades and why Nick is not especially optimistic that productivity will really improve anytime soon. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Nick Bloom’s Stanford University profile: https://people.stanford.edu/nbloom/ Related links: The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index http://www.policyuncertainty.com/ “Fluctuations in Uncertainty” by Nicholas Bloom http://www.nber.org/papers/w19714.pdf “Why has US Policy Uncertainty Risen since 1960?” by Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Brandice Canes-Wrone, Steven J. Davis, and Jonathan Rodden https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.104.5.56

Jeffrey Rogers Hummel is a professor of economics at San Jose State University and writes on macroeconomics and economic history. Today, Jeff joins the show to discuss his work on the Fed’s interventions during the Great Recession. He also dispels some myths about the extent to which the Fed really influences interest rates. Finally, he explains why he believes that cash plays an important role in society and why recent proposals to abolish cash are misguided. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Jeff Hummel’s San Jose State University profile: http://www.sjsu.edu/economics/faculty/jeff.hummel.html Related links: “Central Bank Control over Interest Rates: The Myth and the Reality” by Jeffery Rogers Hummel https://www.mercatus.org/publications/central-bank-control-interest-rates “Ben Bernanke vs. Milton Friedman: The Federal Reserve’s Emergence as the U.S. Economy’s Central Planner” by Jeffrey Rogers Hummel http://www.independent.org/publications/tir/article.asp?a=824 “The War on Cash: A Review of Kenneth Rogoff’s *The Curse of Cash*” by Jeffrey Rogers Hummel https://econjwatch.org/articles/the-war-on-cash-a-review-of-kenneth-rogoff-s-the-curse-of-cash

Douglas Irwin is a professor of economics at Dartmouth College and a leading expert on trade economics. Today, he joins the show to discuss his new book, *Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy,* which examines the history of American trade policy from the late 1700s to the present. Doug explains how US attitudes toward trade evolved over time and how free trade became the postwar consensus. Specifically, Doug argues that the history of US trade policy has been guided by the “three R’s: revenue, restriction, and reciprocity.” Finally, David and Doug discuss some of Doug’s work on the gold standard and the Great Depression. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Douglas Irwin’s homepage: www.dartmouth.edu/~dirwin/ Douglas Irwin’s Twitter: @D_A_Irwin Related links: *Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy* by Douglas A. Irwin http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo24475328.html “Steve Bannon’s Bad History” by Douglas A. Irwin https://www.wsj.com/articles/steve-bannons-bad-history-1505861920 The Truth About Trade: What Critics Get Wrong About the Global Economy” (Foreign Affairs) by Douglas A. Irwin www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2016…h-about-trade *Free Trade Under Fire (Princeton University Press, fourth edition 2015)* by Douglas A. Irwin www.amazon.com/Free-Trade-under-…rth/dp/0691166250

Norbert Michel is the director of the Center for Data Analysis at the Heritage Foundation. Today, Norbert joins the show to discuss a new book of collected essays, which he edited, titled *Prosperity Unleashed: Smarter Financial Regulation.* Norbert pushes back against the narrative that deregulation caused the 2008 financial crisis and argues that excessive regulation hinders growth and actually makes the financial system less safe. He and David discuss policy recommendations made in the book, including reforming the Federal Reserve’s last-resort lending practices, converting the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) into a commission, and more. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Norbert Michel’s Heritage profile: http://www.heritage.org/staff/norbert-michel Norbert Michel’s Twitter: @norbertjmichel Related links: *Prosperity Unleashed: Smarter Financial Regulation* edited by Norbert J. Michel http://www.heritage.org/prosperity-unleashed “Reforming Last-Resort Lending: The Flexible Open-Market Alternative” by George Selgin http://www.heritage.org/markets-and-finance/report/reforming-last-resort-lending-the-flexible-open-market-alternative “Reforming the Financial Regulators” by Mark Calabria, Norbert Michel, and Hester Peirce http://www.heritage.org/markets-and-finance/report/reforming-the-financial-regulators “Money and Banking Provisions in the Financial CHOICE Act: A Major Step in the Right Direction” by Norbert Michel http://www.heritage.org/markets-and-finance/report/money-and-banking-provisions-the-financial-choice-act-major-step-the

Karl Smith is the director of economic research at the Niskanen Center. He joins the show to discuss his thoughts on increasing market power (the ability of firms to influence prices) in the United States. Karl argues that this is at least partially due to what he calls the “Great Variation,” the desire many Americans have had for more individualized consumer goods since the 1960s. Finally, Karl also shares his thoughts on some of President Trump’s choices for Federal Reserve chair. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Karl Smith’s Niskanen profile: https://niskanencenter.org/blog/staff/chief-economist/ Karl Smith’s Twitter: @karlbykarlsmith “Modeled Behavior”: https://www.forbes.com/sites/modeledbehavior/#661385b4a824 Related links: “Mark-Ups and Market Power” by Karl Smith https://niskanencenter.org/blog/markups-market-power/ “The Great Variation” by Karl Smith https://niskanencenter.org/blog/notes/the-great-variation/ https://niskanencenter.org/blog/notes/just-say-no-kevin-warsh/

Binyamin Appelbaum is an award-winning correspondent for the New York Times and covers the Federal Reserve and other aspects of economic policy. Today, he joins the show to discuss his work on covering the Fed and some ideas to improve Fed transparency. Binyamin also shares his thoughts on who President Trump may choose to fill vacancies on the Federal Reserve. Finally, Binyamin and David discuss what Trump’s trade policies may mean an increasingly globalized world. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Binyamin Appelbaum’s New York Times archive: https://www.nytimes.com/by/binyamin-appelbaum Binyamin’s Twitter: @BCAppelbaum Related links: “U.S. Inflation Remains Low and that’s a Problem” by Binyamin Appelbaum https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/24/us/politics/us-inflation-remains-low-and-thats-a-problem.html “Yellen and Cohn to Be on Shortlist to Lead Federal Reserve” by Binyamin Appelbaum https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/23/business/yellen-and-cohn-said-to-be-on-shortlist-for-new-head-of-the-fed.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fbinyamin-appelbaum&mtrref=www.nytimes.com&gwh=92BA8BF1D73950AA0455B7DF58B5E2FB&gwt=pay “A Look at Airbus’s Epic Assembly Line” by Binyamin Appelbaum and Christopher Payne https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/03/magazine/a-look-inside-airbuss-epic-assembly-line.html “American Companies Still Make Aluminum. In Iceland” by Binyamin Appelbaum https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/01/us/politics/american-companies-still-make-aluminum-in-iceland.html “Minorities Seen More Likely to Pay High Mortgage Rates” by Binyamin Appelbaum and Ted Millnik http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2005-09-03/news/0509030121_1_rates-for-mortgage-loans-interest-rates-lending-process

Olivier Blanchard is the C. Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the former Director of Research at the International Monetary Fund. Today, he joins the show to discuss working at the IMF in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession. He also shares his thoughts on the limitations of current-day macroeconomic models as well as some suggestions to improve them. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Olivier Blanchard’s MIT profile: https://economics.mit.edu/faculty/blanchar Olivier Blanchard’s PIIE profile: https://piie.com/experts/senior-research-staff/olivier-blanchard Olivier Blanchard’s Twitter: @ojblanchard1 Related links: “Do DSGE Models Have a Future?” by Olivier Blanchard https://piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/do-dsge-models-have-future “On the Need for (At Least) Five Classes of Macro Models” by Olivier Blanchard https://piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/need-least-five-classes-macro-models “Will Interest Rates Lead to Fiscal Crisis?” by Olivier Blanchard https://piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/will-rising-interest-rates-lead-fiscal-crises “Getting Serious About Wage Inflation in Japan” by Olivier Blanchard and Adam Posen https://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints-archive/Viewpoints/Getting-serious-about-wage-inflation-in-Japan “Monetary Policy: Science or Art?” by Olivier Blanchard https://economics.mit.edu/files/742

JW Mason is an assistant professor of economics at John Jay College and a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute. Today, he joins the show to discuss his recent paper, “What Recovery? The Case for Continued Expansionary Policy at the Fed?” JW argues that the recovery from the Great Recession was unusually weak. Furthermore, the American economy is still not at full employment, and, as a result, potential GDP is continually underestimated. In order to get the economy back to full employment, JW argues greater monetary expansion is needed. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth JW Mason’s website: http://jwmason.org/ JW’s Twitter: @JWMason1 “What Recovery? The Case for Continued Expansionary Policy at the Fed?” http://rooseveltinstitute.org/what-recovery/

Caroline Freund is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). Previously, she served as the chief economist for the Middle East and North Africa at the World Bank. She joins the show to discuss her career in trade policy and her work on the slowdown in global trade since the Great Recession. Finally, she also shares her thought on President Trump’s trade policies. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Caroline’s PIIE profile: https://piie.com/experts/senior-research-staff/caroline-freund?author_id=906 Caroline’s Bloomberg archive: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/contributors/AQnL_eq2K8M/caroline-freund Caroline’s Twitter: @CarolineFreund Related links: *Rich People, Poor Countries: The Rise of Emerging-Market Tycoons and Their Mega Firms* by Caroline Freund (assisted by Sarah Oliver) https://piie.com/bookstore/rich-people-poor-countries-rise-emerging-market-tycoons-and-their-mega-firms “The Global Trade Slowdown and Secular Stagnation” by Caroline Freund https://piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/global-trade-slowdown-and-secular-stagnation “Invest in minds, not miners” by Caroline Freund and Christine McDaniel https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-06/the-u-s-needs-to-invest-in-minds-not-miners “U.S. Needs Trade Deals, Not ‘Remedies’” by Caroline Freund https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-14/u-s-needs-china-trade-deals-not-remedies “The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade” by David H. Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson http://www.nber.org/papers/w21906 "Trump's Trade Pullout Roils Rural America" by Adam Behsudi http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/07/trump-tpp-deal-withdrawal-trade-effects-215459

Lawrence Summers is the Charles W. Eliot University Professor and President Emeritus of Harvard University. Previously, he served as U.S. Treasury Secretary under President Bill Clinton and Director of the National Economic Council under President Obama. In today’s episode, he joins the show to discuss his work as both an academic and a policymaker. He also shares his thoughts on monetary and fiscal policy since the recent financial crisis and Great Recession. Finally, he explains why he has recently become more open to nominal GDP targeting. You can read the transcript to the full interview here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/sya7syeqgjp1gxq/Summers_transcript.doc?dl=0 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Lawrence Summers’ website: http://larrysummers.com/ Larry Summers’ Washington post archive: https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/lawrence-summers/?utm_term=.2cf6f67e2ce9 Larry Summers’ Twitter: @LHSummers Related links: “Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications” by Olivier Blanchard, Eugenio Cerutti, and Lawrence Summers https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15230.pdf “The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidation” by Antonio Fatas and Larry Summers http://www.nber.org/papers/w22374 “5 Reasons Why the Fed Might Be Making a Mistake” by Larry Summers https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/06/14/larry-summers-5-reasons-why-the-fed-may-be-making-a-mistake/?utm_term=.3e48ce5bd142 *** [Also, be sure to subscribe to Mercatus’ “Conversations with Tyler” podcast, hosted by Tyler Cowen. Tyler also interviewed Larry Summers and discussed a wide range of topics, including trade policy, immigration, asset-pricing, monopolies, and even table tennis. You can listen to that conversation here: https://soundcloud.com/conversationswithtyler/28-larry-summers-on-macroeconomics-mentorship-and-avoiding-complacency You can also find previous episodes of “Conversations with Tyler” at https://medium.com/conversations-with-tyler]