Macro Musings

Ashoka Mody is a professor of international economic policy at Princeton University and formerly worked at the IMF and the World Bank. He joins the show today to discuss his new book, *EuroTragedy: A Drama in Nine Acts*. David and Ashoka also delve deep into the history of the Euro, as they discuss its complicated political origins and why its creation may have been a mistake. Ashoka’s Twitter: @AshokaMody Ashoka’s Princeton profile: https://scholar.princeton.edu/amody/home Related Links: *EuroTragedy: A Drama in Nine Acts* by Ashoka Mody https://global.oup.com/academic/product/eurotragedy-9780199351381?cc=us&lang=en& *EMU and International Conflict* by Martin Feldstein https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/europe/1997-11-01/emu-and-international-conflict David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Monica de Bolle is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and an associate professor at Johns Hopkins University. Monica is published widely on the subject of Latin American economies, and she joins the show today to explain some of the recent financial and economic developments in Argentina and Venezuela. David and Monica also analyze the political atmosphere and policy environment that led to Argentina’s current economic hardships and discuss where the country might be if they had not pursued such policies. Monica’s Twitter: @bollemdb Monica’s PIIE profile: https://piie.com/experts/senior-research-staff/monica-de-bolle Related Links: *Argentina: Back to the Brink* by Monica de Bolle https://piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/argentina-back-brink David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Mark Copelovitch is an associate professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and studies the politics of international trade, money, and finance. He joins the show today to discuss the politics of the global recession and the Eurozone Crisis. David and Mark dive deep into these topics, as they examine how policymakers failed during the Great Recession, and how effects of the Eurozone crisis varied across Europe. They also discuss whether the recent Italian elections can be viewed as a consequence of Eurozone failures. Mark’s Twitter: @mcopelov Mark’s University of Wisconsin-Madison profile: https://polisci.wisc.edu/people/faculty/mark-copelovitch Related Links: *This Time Should Have Been Different: The Causes and Consequences of Macroeconomic Policy Failure in the Great Recession* by Mark Copelovitch https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3059991 *The Monetary Policy Origins of the Eurozone Crisis* by David Beckworth https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/Beckworth-Eurozone-Crisis-v1.pdf *A Plan to Save the Euro* by Jeffry Frieden https://voxeu.org/article/plan-save-euro *Going to Extremes: Politics After Financial Crises, 1870–2014* by Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292116300587 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Dan Griswold is a research fellow and co-director for the Program on the American Economy and Globalization at the Mercatus Center. He is a nationally recognized expert on trade and immigration and is a previous guest on Macro Musings. He joins the show today to discuss his recent policy brief, *The Benefits of Immigration: Addressing the Key Myths* in addition to some of his other work on the issue. Some of the topics Dan and David explore include immigration’s positive effects on economic growth, the importance of immigrants in maintaining demographic stability, and other false narratives surrounding their perceived fiscal impact. Dan’s Twitter: @DanielGriswold Dan’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/daniel-griswold Related Links: *The Benefits of Immigration: Addressing the Key Myths* by Dan Griswold https://www.mercatus.org/publications/benefits-of-immigration-key-myths *The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration* by the National Academies of Sciences https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23550/the-economic-and-fiscal-consequences-of-immigration *The Integration of Immigrants into American Society* by the National Academies of Sciences https://www.nap.edu/catalog/21746/the-integration-of-immigrants-into-american-society *Reforming the U.S. Immigration System to Promote Growth* by Dan Griswold https://www.mercatus.org/publications/reforming-us-immigration-system-economic-growth *Immigrants and Conservatives are Cut from the Same Cloth* by Dan Griswold https://townhall.com/columnists/danielgriswold/2018/04/25/immigrants-and-conservatives-are-cut-from-the-same-cloth-n2474499 *What the June Rate Hikes Mean for the Future of the Fed* by David Beckworth https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/06262018/what-june-rate-hikes-mean-future-fed?utm_source=soundcloud&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=macromusings David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Larry Ball is a professor and department chair of economics at Johns Hopkins University. He is published widely in the field of macroeconomics and joins the show today to discuss his new book, *The Fed and Lehman Brothers: Setting the Record Straight on a Financial Disaster* and its implications for potential future crises. David and Larry also dive deep into the events leading up to the Lehman collapse, the effects it had on the broader economy, and the lessons that can be learned from the fallout ten years later. Larry’s Johns Hopkins profile: http://econ.jhu.edu/directory/laurence-m-ball/ Larry’s NBER archive: http://www.nber.org/people/laurence_ball Related Links: *The Fed and Lehman Brothers: Setting the Record Straight on a Financial Disaster* by Laurence Ball https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/fed-and-lehman-brothers/14BE6C2AD579DC4782EC27F2A6AF2FA6 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Nick Timiraos is a national economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal and covers topics relating to the Federal Reserve. He also covered the housing bust and the government’s response to the mortgage crisis during the Great Recession as well as the government-sponsored enterprises, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Nick joins the show today to discuss the long and controversial history surrounding the two GSEs on the 10 year anniversary of their conservatorship. David and Nick also discuss the evolution of the U.S. housing market as well as the advent and characteristics of securitization. Nick’s Twitter: @NickTimiraos Nick’s Wall Street Journal profile: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/5585 Related Links: *The U.S. Mortgage Market: Chart Edition* by David Beckworth (includes the market share chart referenced at 25:20 during the episode.) http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2018/05/the-us-mortgage-market-chart-edition.html David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Brian Blackstone is a Switzerland bureau chief for the Wall Street Journal and previously covered the European Central Bank from the Wall Street Journal’s Frankfurt office as well as the Federal Reserve during the financial crisis. He joins the show today to talk about the Swiss referendum on sovereign money in addition to his insights on the European Central Bank. David and Brian also discuss the effects of an enlarged balance sheet at the Swiss National Bank, whether they should be the only national entity in control of money creation, and how the Swiss economy has fared since the Great Recession. Brian’s Twitter: @Blackstonebrian Brian’s WSJ profile: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/7515 Related Links: *How Switzerland Lost a Currency Battle, but Won the War* by Brian Blackstone and Pat Minczeski https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-switzerland-lost-a-currency-battle-but-won-the-war-1524216601 *Why Italy is Flirting with Euro Exit and Spain Isn’t* by Greg Ip https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-italy-is-flirting-with-euro-exit-and-spain-isnt-1528040526 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Christine McDaniel is a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center with the Program on the American Economy and Globalization. Christine previously held several positions within the U.S. government including deputy assistant secretary at the Treasury Department and senior trade economist in the White House Council of Economic Advisors. She joins the show today to talk about the issues of intellectual property and trade. David and Christine also discuss the importance of reviving the Trans-Pacific Partnership, problems with patent systems across the globe, and the history and current scale of intellectual property theft. Christine’s Twitter: @christinemcdan Christine’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/christine-mcdaniel David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Sam Hammond is a poverty and welfare policy analyst for the Niskanen Center and has recently published a new paper titled, *The Free-Market Welfare State: Preserving Dynamism in a Volatile World*. He joins the show today to discuss the paper along with some of his other research. Sam and David also discuss the repercussions of the China shock, how to reform America’s welfare system, and the design characteristics that would define an ideal social insurance state. Sam’s Twitter: @hamandcheese Sam’s Medium profile: https://medium.com/@hamandcheese Related Links: *The Free-Market Welfare State: Preserving Dynamism in a Volatile World* by Sam Hammond https://niskanencenter.org/blog/the-free-market-welfare-state-preserving-dynamism-in-a-volatile-world/ *From Tiananmen to Outsourcing: the Effect of rising Import Competition on Congressional Voting Towards China* by John Seungmin Kuk, Deborah Seligsohn, & Jiakun Jack Zhang https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10670564.2017.1363024?journalCode=cjcc20 *Populism and the Economics of Globalization* by Dani Rodrik https://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rodrik/files/populism_and_the_economics_of_globalization.pdf *Food Stamp Entrepreneurs* by Gareth Olds https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Publication%20Files/16-143_2cf7ba14-5bfa-4c34-85d9-0edc0ddc7ce6.pdf *If You Want to Rebuild Civil Society, Don’t Abolish Welfare – Decentralize it* by Sam Hammond https://niskanencenter.org/blog/rebuild-american-community/ *Diversity and Crowd-Out: A Theory of Cold-glow Giving* by Daniel M. Hungerman http://www.nber.org/papers/w13348.pdf *It Takes a Nation* by Rebecca Blank https://www.amazon.com/Takes-Nation-Rebecca-M-Blank/dp/0691004013 *Filthy Lucre: Economics for People Who Hate Capitalism* by Joseph Heath https://www.amazon.com/Filthy-Lucre-Economics-People-Capitalism-ebook/dp/B0058DTHNU David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Michael Darda is a chief economist and market strategist at MKM Partners. Michael is also a frequent guest on financial television and radio and is routinely quoted in “The Wall Street Journal”, “The New York Times”, “Barron’s”, and other financial publications. He joins the show today to talk about his work conducting macroeconomic market research as well as his views on the market itself. David and Michael also discuss his shift from supply-side economics to market monetarism, the Fed’s performance during and after the Great Recession, and the potential effects of a flattening Treasury yield curve. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Michael’s MKM Partners profile: http://www.mkmpartners.com/research/ Michael’s Bloomberg profile: https://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/private/person.asp?personId=48822180&privcapId=40334090

Razeen Sally is an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore and formerly taught at the London School of Economics. He is also the Chairman of the Institute of Policy Studies, the main economic policy think tank in Sri Lanka and a senior advisor to Sri Lanka’s Minister of Finance. Today, he joins the show to discuss the state of international economic affairs and how it specifically relates to Asia. Razeen explains why he believes the U.S. should stay engaged within Asia and also shares his thoughts on China’s demographic problem as well as the effects of the Trump administration’s increased protectionism. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Razeen’s Lee Kuan Yew profile: http://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/our-people/our-faculty/faculty-profile/razeen-sally Razeen’s Twitter: @razeensally Related Links: *Why Global Order Still Needs America in Asia* by Razeen Sally http://ecipe.org/app/uploads/2017/07/Razeen-Sally-Quadrant-July-2017.pdf

David is the Vice President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, and has published widely in the field of monetary economics. He also writes for his blog, MacroMania, where he covers a multitude of economic topics. David joins the show today to discuss the economics behind the Phillips Curve, and to help provide a greater understanding of the debate surrounding it. They also discuss the mystery of low inflation in the United States, the excess money demand problem, and the important role debt plays within international monetary policy. David Beckworth’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David Andolfatto’s Twitter: @dandolfa David Andolfatto’s blog: andolfatto.blogspot.com

Jim Hamilton is a professor of economics at the University of California-San Diego and the author of *Time Series Analysis,* a popular graduate-level econometrics textbook. Today, Jim joins the show to discuss his work in econometrics as well as his research on the role oil plays in the U.S. economy. He also shares his thoughts on how oil will continue to shape the economy in light of the rise of clean energy. David and Jim also discuss recent U.S. monetary policy and why interest rates have been so very low. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Jim Hamilton’s UC San Diego profile: http://econweb.ucsd.edu/~jhamilton/ Jim Hamilton’s Twitter: @JHamilton _UCSD Jim Hamilton's blog: http://econbrowser.com/ *Time Series Analysis* by James Hamilton https://www.amazon.com/Time-Analysis-James-Douglas-Hamilton/dp/0691042896

Daniela Gabor is a professor of economics and finance at the University of West England at Bristol and a monetary economist. She specializes in shadow banking, capital markets, and transnational banking. Today, she joins the show to discuss her new paper, *Chasing Unicorns: The European Single Safe Asset Project*. David and Daniela also discuss merits of equity-based banking, elements of the shadow banking system, and Europe’s quest for a safe asset. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Daniela’s Twitter: @DanielaGabor Daniela’s UWE Bristol profile: https://people.uwe.ac.uk/Person/DanielaGabor Related Links: *Chasing Unicorns: The European Single Safe Asset Project* by Daniela Gabor http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1024529418759638 *Inside Safe Assets* by Anna Gelpern and Erik Gerding https://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/facpub/1831/ *The Growth of Financial Banking* by Anna Youngman https://www.jstor.org/stable/1817326?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents *The Repo and Reverse Markets* by Marcia Stigum https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Repo_and_Reverse_Markets.html?id=wJ6OZlHFYDoC *The New York Money Market: Origins and Development* and *The New York Money Market: Uses of Funds* by Margaret Myers et al. https://books.google.com/books/about/The_New_York_Money_Market_Origins_and_de.html?id=InFaAAAAYAAJ https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/The_New_York_Money_Market_Uses_of_funds.html?id=cXVaAAAAYAAJ&redir_esc=y

Morgan Ricks is a law professor at Vanderbilt University. Previously, he was a senior policy advisor and financial restructuring expert at the U.S. Treasury Department where he focused primarily on financial stability initiatives and capital market policy in response to the financial crisis. Today, he joins the show to discuss his new paper, *Money as Infrastructure* where he contrasts what he calls the “intermediation paradigm” of banking and the “money paradigm.” Morgan also shares his thoughts on the government’s role in money, the history of free banking, and current-day banking regulation. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Morgan’s Twitter: @MorganRicks1 Morgan’s Vanderbilt profile: https://law.vanderbilt.edu/bio/morgan-ricks Related Links: *Money as Infrastructure* by Morgan Ricks https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3070270 *The Money Problem* by Morgan Ricks http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/M/bo22438821.html