Macro Musings

Ioana Marinescu is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Pennsylvania and a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Today she joins the show to highlight her work on the concept of a Universal Basic Income (UBI). David and Ioana discuss how a UBI would work and how it compares and contrasts with Milton Friedman’s related negative income tax proposal. They also discuss the economic and social effects of a UBI, some experimental evidence of the policy, and the political feasibility of such a program. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Ioana’s Twitter: @mioana Ioana’s website: http://www.marinescu.eu/ Related Links: *No Strings Attached: The Behavioral Effects of U.S. Unconditional Cash Transfer Programs* by Ioana Marinescu http://www.marinescu.eu/Marinescu_UBI_review_2017.pdf *The Labor Market Impacts of Universal and Permanent Cash Transfers: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund* by Damon Jones and Ioana Marinescu http://home.uchicago.edu/~j1s/Jones_Alaska.pdf

Macro Musings is celebrating its 100th episode, and for this special occasion, we have an all-star panel of guests joining the show! Heather Long is an economics correspondent for the Washington Post and formerly was a senior reporter at CNN. Ryan Avent is a columnist for the Economist Magazine and author of several books including his most recent work, *The Wealth of Humans: Work, Power, and Status in the Twenty-first Century*. Cardiff Garcia is the co-host of NPR’s The Indicator from Planet Money and was formerly with the Financial Times. Today, they join the show to discuss the top economic issues and lessons in last 10 years since the Great Recession, and what predictions they’ve made that haven’t come true. They also discuss the current trends of stagnant wage growth, the economic insecurity of the American workforce, and the dramatic change in the structure of labor markets. [To sign-up for Mercatus’ NGDP prediction market, go to get.mercatus.org/ngdppredictions/. Just answer a few simple questions, and you’ll receive an email invitation to start forecasting!] David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Ryan’s Twitter: @ryanavent Ryan’s Economist profile: http://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/ryan-avent/ Ryan on a previous Macro Musings: https://soundcloud.com/macro-musings/ryanavent Cardiff’s Twitter: @CardiffGarcia Cardiff’s NPR profile: https://www.npr.org/people/567164716/cardiff-garcia Cardiff on a previous Macro Musings: https://soundcloud.com/macro-musings/cardiffgarcia Heather’s Twitter: @byHeatherLong Heather’s Washington Post profile: https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/heather-long/?utm_term=.26c78de4a68e

Ed Nelson is a senior advisor at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and formerly worked at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank and the Bank of England. Today, he joins the show to discuss his research on the role of money in business cycles. David and Ed also discuss nominal income targeting, Milton’s Friedman’s influence on monetary economics, and Australia’s successful monetary policy performance. [To sign-up for Mercatus’ NGDP prediction market, go to get.mercatus.org/ngdppredictions/. Just answer a few simple questions, and you’ll receive an email invitation to start forecasting!] David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Ed’s Federal Reserve profile: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/edward-nelson.htm Related Links: *Tobin’s Imperfect Asset Substitution in Optimizing General Equilibrium* by Javier Andrés, J. David López-Salido, and Edward Nelson https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/46d3/a4a1f1b5a6b08158f06edd6c7122fbc23c7f.pdf *Nominal GDP Targeting and the Taylor Rule on an Even Playing Field* by David Beckworth and Josh Hendrickson https://www.mercatus.org/publications/nominal-GDP-targeting-taylor-rule

Daniel Griswold is a Mercatus Center Senior Research Fellow and Co-Director of the Program on the American Economy and Globalization at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He joins the show to discuss the theory of trade, dating back to Adam Smith, and his work on current US trade policy. Daniel and David discuss some of the misconceptions surrounding trade and why Americans should embrace free trade instead of protectionism. This episode was originally aired on May 1, 2017. [To sign-up for Mercatus’ NGDP prediction market, go to get.mercatus.org/ngdppredictions/. Just answer a few simple questions, and you’ll receive an email invitation to start forecasting!] David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Daniel Griswold’s blog: madabouttrade.com/ David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Daniel Griswold’s Twitter: @DanielGriswold Related links: “Plumbing America’s Balance of Trade” by Daniel Griswold www.mercatus.org/publications/ame…balance-of-trade *Mad About Trade: Why Main Street America Should Embrace Globalization* by Daniel Griswold www.amazon.com/Mad-About-Trade-A…ion/dp/193530819X “The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade” by David Autor, David Dorn, & Gordon Hanson www.ddorn.net/papers/Autor-Dorn-…son-ChinaShock.pdf

Noah Smith is a Bloomberg View columnist and formerly a professor of finance at Stony Brook University. Today, he joins the show to talk about his journey into the economics blogosphere and some of his recent work on immigration into the United States. . David and Noah discuss some of the false narratives surrounding immigration as well as the impact of immigration on native workers’ wages, labor markets, and the broader economy. [To sign-up for Mercatus’ NGDP prediction market, go to https://get.mercatus.org/ngdppredictions/. Just answer a few simple questions, and you’ll receive an email invitation to start forecasting!] David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Noah’s Bloomberg View archive: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/contributors/AR3OYuAmvcU/noah-smith Noah’s blog: http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/ Noah’s Twitter: @Noahpinion "The Economics and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration," National Academy of Science https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23550/the-economic-and-fiscal-consequences-of-immigration

Kevin Hassett is the chair of President Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, a former scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a professor at Columbia University, and a Fed Economist. Kevin has also advised John McCain, George W. Bush, and Mitt Romney on their presidential campaigns. Today, he joins the show today to outline some of the big issues of the past and present facing the U.S. economy. Kevin argues that Obama administration policies exacerbated the sluggish nature of the recovery from the Great Recession and explains how he thinks President Trump’s policies on taxes, deregulation, and infrastructure will lead to stronger economic growth. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Kevin’s AEI profile: https://www.aei.org/profile/kevin-a-hassett/ Kevin’s White House profile: https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/staff/ Related Links: *2018 Economic Report of the President* https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/growing-american-economy-economic-report-president/ *Obama Inconsistent on Pace of Economic Recovery* by Kevin Hassett and Glenn Hubbard https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-inconsistent-on-pace-of-economic-recovery/2012/08/14/45533a3c-e627-11e1-936a-b801f1abab19_story.html?utm_term=.684bf28b0d63

Brink Lindsey is the Vice President and Director of the Open Society Project at the Niskanen Center, and Steven Teles is a Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University and a Senior Fellow at the Niskanen Center. Today, they join the show to discuss their new book, *The Captured Economy: How the Powerful Enrich Themselves, Slow Down Growth, and Increase Inequality.* For Lindsey and Teles, slow growth and inequality are “twin melees” that are harming the economy. They discuss some of the issues at the root of these problems, including excessive occupational licensing laws and zoning regulations, as well as some ways to fix them. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Brink’s Twitter: @lindsey_brink Brink’s Niskanen profile: https://niskanencenter.org/blog/staff/brink-lindsey/ Steven’s Niskanen profile: https://niskanencenter.org/blog/staff/brink-lindsey/ Related links: *The Captured Economy: How the Powerful Enrich Themselves, Slow Down Growth, and Increase Inequality* by Brink Lindsey and Steven Teles https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-captured-economy-9780190627768?cc=us&lang=en&

George Selgin is the Director of the Cato Institute Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives and Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Georgia. Today, George joins the show to discuss the shrinking of the Fed’s balance sheet, the difference between corridor and floor systems in monetary policy, and the Fed’s practice of paying interest on excess reserves. David and George also discuss the issues of legality surrounding interest on reserves as well as why the Fed prefers a floor system to a corridor system and why George doesn’t! David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth George’s Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George’s Alt-M Archive: https://www.alt-m.org/author/selgin/

Mike Konczal is a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute where he works on financial reform, unemployment, inequality, and a progressive vision of the economy. He has also recently co-authored a paper with J.W. Mason titled, “A New Direction for the Federal Reserve: Expanding the Monetary Policy Toolkit.” Today, Mike joins the show to discuss the progress of financial regulation, the Federal Reserve’s performance over the past decade, and new tools the Fed could utilize to better stabilize the economy in the present and future. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Mike Konczal’s Twitter: @rortybomb Mike Konczal and J.W. Mason’s Paper: http://rooseveltinstitute.org/expanding-monetary-policy-toolkit/

Neel Kashkari is President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, and Ron Feldman is the first vice president and chief operating officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Today, they join the show to describe the Minneapolis Plan to End Too Big to Fail, the Minneapolis Fed’s proposal to end the problem of systemic risk to the economy posed by excessively large financial institutions. Neel also shares his thoughts on improving Fed transparency and monetary policy. Disclaimer: Unfortunately, we had some audio problems during the recording, but because this conversation is so important and interesting we wanted to bring it you anyway. And, if you prefer, we’ve also made a transcript, which is linked to below. Transcript of today’s conversation https://www.mercatus.org/podcasts/neel-kashkari-ron-feldman-minneapolis-plan-monetary-policy-reform *The Minneapolis Plan to End Too Big to Fail* https://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications/special-studies/endingtbtf Neel Kashkari’s Twitter: @neelkashkari Ron Feldman’s Twiiter: @ronjfeldman Minneapolis Fed’s Twitter: @MinneapolisFed Neel Kashkari’s Medium: https://medium.com/@neelkashkari David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Ángel Ubide is a Managing Director at Goldman Sachs and formerly was a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Today, he joins the show to discuss his new book *The Paradox of Risk: Leaving the Monetary Policy Comfort Zone.* Ángel argues that the Federal Reserve has become too afraid to take risks when implementing new policies. Instead, he offers alternative proposals aimed to move monetary policy out of its comfort zone. David and Ángel also discuss the Eurozone crisis, the ECB, and using more effective communication, accountability, and greater transparency to minimize biases within monetary policy. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Ángel Ubide’s Twitter: @AngelUbide Ángel Ubide’s book: https://cup.columbia.edu/book/the-paradox-of-risk/9780881327199 “The Latest Central Bank Fad: Asymmetric Inflation Targeting” by David Beckworth(Bull’s Eye images of symmetric and asymmetric targets) http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2016/01/the-latest-central-bank-fad-asymmetric.html

Jesse Eisinger is a senior reporter and editor at ProPublica as well as a Pulitzer Prize winner. Today, he joins the show to discuss his new book *The Chickenshit Club: Why the Justice Department Fails to Prosecute Executives.* Jesse argues that in recent years, the U.S. Justice Department has become excessively timid in prosecuting white collar crime on Wall Street and in the financial sector. David and Jesse discuss why this is a problem for the rule of law as well as some ways to reform the system. [To rate and review this podcast, go to: itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/macro…d1099277290?mt=2 Then, leave your information at: www.mercatus.org/macromusings ] David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Jesse Eisinger’s Pro Publica Profile: https://www.propublica.org/people/jesse-eisinger Jesse Eisinger’s Twitter: @eisingerj Related links: *The Chickenshit Club: Why the Justice Department Fails to Prosecute Executives* http://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Chickenshit-Club/Jesse-Eisinger/9781501121364

Sarah Binder is a professor of Political Science at George Washington University and a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. She research focuses on Congress, Congressional development, and political parties. Mark is the founder and chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital LLC, and formerly was with the World Bank. Today, they join the show to discuss the history and politics behind the creation of the Fed as well as their new book, *The Myth of Independence: How Congress Governs the Federal Reserve.* [To rate an review this podcast, go to: itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/macro…d1099277290?mt=2 Then, leave your information at: www.mercatus.org/macromusings ] David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Sarah Binder's Brookings profile: https://www.brookings.edu/experts/sarah-a-binder/ Sarah Binder's Twitter: @bindersab Mark Spindel's Twitter: @potomac Related links: *The Myth of Independence: How Congress Governs the Federal Reserve* by Sarah Binder and Mark Spindel https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11123.html

Mike Bird is a reporter for *The Wall Street Journal* and covers global economics and markets from the Journal’s London office. Today, he joins the show to discuss recent developments in central banking across the world. David and Mike discuss how the Eurozone has dealt with some of the serious turmoil it has faced in recent years as well as Japan’s “Abenomics” program geared toward raising inflation and implementing structural reforms. Finally, Mike shares his thoughts on the Fed’s plan to reduce its balance sheet and what impact that will have on the global economy. [To rate an review this podcast, go to: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/macro-musings/id1099277290?mt=2 Then, leave your information at: https://www.mercatus.org/macromusings ] David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Mike Bird’s WSJ archive: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/8326 Mike Bird’s Twitter: @Birdyword Related links: “ECB Taper Promises to Set Off Ripples Across Many Markets” by Mike Bird https://www.wsj.com/articles/ecb-stimulus-unwind-could-have-broad-knock-on-effect-1508670002 “A Decade After the Crisis, King Dollar is the World’s Tyrant” by Mike Bird https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-decade-after-the-crisis-king-dollar-is-the-worlds-tyrant-1511697601

(REBROADCAST EPISODE) In this week’s special episode, David compares and contrasts the economics of the Star Wars and Star Trek universes. He is joined by Zachary Feinstein, an Assistant Professor at Washington University in St. Louis, and Manu Saadia, author of *Trekonomics.* Topics include the economic fallout from the destruction of the Death Star, the absence of money in Star Trek, and whether a universe can really eliminate scarcity. Original episode: https://soundcloud.com/macro-musings/feinsteinsaadia David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @davidbeckworth Manu’s *Trekonomics* website: trekonomics.tumblr.com/ (you can order the book, *Trekonomics,* here as well) Manu’s Twitter: @trekonomics Zach’s faculty profile: sites.wustl.edu/fictionomics/ Zach’s Twitter: @FictionomicsWU Related links: “It’s a Trap: Emperor Palpatine’s Poison Pill” by Zachary Feinstein arxiv.org/pdf/1511.09054.pdf “The Case for the Empire” by Jonathan Last www.weeklystandard.com/the-case-for-…/article/2540