The Science of Success

In this episode we discuss the errors people make in their reasoning and how to correct them, we explain a number of statistical principles to help sharpen your thinking and make you a better decision maker, why every $1 spent on a “scared straight” program creates $400 of cost for the criminal justice system, the illusion of objectivity, why you should NOT rely on your intuition and much more with Dr. Richard Nisbett.    Dr. Richard Nisbett is a professor of psychology at the University of Michigan. He has been awarded the Distinguished Scientific Contribution Award of the American Psychology Association, the William James Fellow Award for Distinguished Scientific Achievements, and the Donald T. Campbell Award for Distinguished Research in Social Psychology, among others. He is the author of the recent book Mindware, as well as The Geography of Thought, Think Differently, and Intelligence and How To Get It. The errors people make in their reasoning and how to correct them How to apply the lessons of statistics to making better decisions Is your intelligence fixed and unchangeable? How the industrial revolution massively transformed the way people think We discuss the skills, not on an IQ test, that you must have to be able to function effectively in today’s age Why job interviews are totally useless and have almost no correlation to job performance  How misunderstanding the law of large numbers can lead you to make huge mistakes Why does the rookie of the year almost always have a worse performance the following year? Understanding regression to the mean and how it creates extremely counterintuitive conclusions Why Performance = Skill + Luck  Why deterministic thinking can drastically mislead you in finding the root cause of a phenomena We explain a number of statistical principles to help sharpen your thinking and make you a better decision maker The concept of "base rates" and how they can transform how you think about reality We walk through a number of concrete examples of how misunderstanding statistics can cause people to make terrible decisions If you’re like most people, then like most people, you think you’re not like most people (but you are) Why every $1 spent on a “scared straight” program creates $400 of cost in criminal and incarceration costs  Why the “head start” program is a massive failure and what we could have done about it  How you can use the experimental method to make data driven experiments in your life The illusion of objectivity - Why you should NOT rely on your intuition  How we massively distort our perception of reality and why our perceptual apparatus can easily mislead us How many of the structures we use to understand the world are highly error prone Why we are amazing at pattern detection but horrible at "covariation detection” Why the traditional rorschach test is bogus and doesn't actually produce any results Why you are likely are “horrendously miscalibrated” in your assessments of people’s personalities If you want to make better decisions - listen to this episode! 

In this episode we discuss the radical mismatch between your intuitive sense of risk and the actual risks you face. We look at why most experts and forecasters are less accurate than dart throwing monkeys. We talk about how to simply and easily dramatically reduce your risk of most major dangers in your life. We explore the results from the “good judgment project” study of more than 20,000 forecasts. We talk about what superforecasters are and how they beat prediction markets, intelligence analysts with classified information, and software algorithms to make the best possible forecasts and MUCH more with Dan Gardner.   Dan Gardner is a New York Times best-selling author and a senior fellow at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs. His latest book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, which he co-authored with Philip Tetlock. Superforecasting was chosen as one of the best books of 2015 by The Economist, Bloomberg, and Amazon. Dan is also the author of Future Babble and Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear and previously worked as a policy advisor to the Premier of Ontario and a journalist with the Ottawa Citizen.  How and why people make flawed judgements about risk The radical mismatch between our intuitive sense of risk and the actual risks we face Why we are the safest, healthiest, wealthiest people to live on planet earth (and we don't realize it) Why we focus on vivid, dramatic risks, and ignore the real dangers in our lives How to simply and easily dramatically reduce your risk of most major dangers in your life The power of “meta cognition,” what it is, and why it’s so important Lessons you can learn from the mega successful investor George Soros Why most forecasters are less accurate than monkeys throwing darts The difference between foxes and hedgehogs (and why you never want to be one of them) The inverse correlation between fame and prediction accuracy What cancer diagnosis shows about how averse people are to uncertainty The universal principles of good judgement The importance of intellectual humility and intellectual curiosity Why certainty is an illusion and nothing is ever certain Why everything is a question of degrees of maybe (probabilistic thinking) The results from the “good judgement project” study of more than 20,000 forecasts What superforecasters are and how they beat prediction markets, intelligence analysts with classified information, and software algorithms  to make the best possible forecasts The differences between these “superforecasters” and regular forecasters The importance of being “actively open minded" Why you should unpack smaller questions & looking things like base rates How to use “fermi estimates” to solve tough and challenging problems Why the growth mindset had a huge impact on positive ability to forecast Need to do some planning for next year? Listen to this episode!

In this episode we discuss why the “happiness” movement has done us a disservice and sometimes makes things worse, how perfectionism creates an illusion of control and distorts your reality, how to become aware of the critical inner voice at the root of your pain and unhealthy habits, the incredible power of self compassion, and much more with Megan Bruneau.   Megan Bruneau is a psychotherapist, wellness coach, writer, podcast host and creator of oneshrinksperspective.com After years of perfectionism-fueled depression, anxiety, and eating disorders, she discovered how to like herself, take risks, and find success without beating herself up to get there.    Why Megan advocates a holistic approach to mental health Why the “happiness” movement has done us a disservice and sometimes makes things worse How to become aware of the critical inner voice at the roof of your pain and unhealthy habits What your “secondary emotions" are and why its so important to pay close attention to them How you internalize self judgement from your childhood experiences You can have expectations about mood not just performance and that can create suffering The importance of giving yourself permission to feel feelings even when they are uncomfortable What your physiological symptoms look like when you experience a fight or flight response How to build tolerance and grow your “emotional muscle” The tools you can use (with a concrete example) to stop a downward spiral of anxiety Things you might do that actually make a negative emotional response worse The importance of making space for difficult feelings ( through mindfulness ) How to have deep self compassion and treat yourself with kindness What exactly to say to yourself when you’re dealing with difficult emotions Why you should treat yourself like a dear friend who is suffering How the “self esteem” movement screwed you up and created many of your emotional challenges What happens when your self worth is dependent on being better than other people How Megan defines perfectionism (and why you might be a perfectionist without even realizing it) The critical importance of self compassion and how you can practice it The importance of understanding the concept of "common humanity" We define mindfulness and its core components, and discuss how to practice it Why painful feelings don't make you broken, but are a natural part of the human experience The huge downsides of having your self worth tied to your achievements Why your fear of difficult and uncomfortable emotions is the roof of your suffering The exact internal dialogue you should use if you constantly put too much pressure on yourself The massive danger of “globalizing” negative experiences Why giving up high expectations actually enhances your performance Why you should change for your focus from being productive to focusing on what’s meaningful How you can “become friends” with difficult emotions And MUCH more!   If you are frustrated, suffering, or struggling with uncomfortable emotions, listen to this episode!

In this episode we discuss lessons from 25 years of studying the evolution of human emotion, examine whether the Machiavellian concept of power still works, explore the surprising scientific data on how you can acquire power, and look closely at the foundation of enduring power from studies of military units on how to achieve and maintain power with Dr. Dacher Keltner.   Dr. Dacher Keltner is the founding director of the Greater Good Science Center and a professor of psychology at UC Berkeley. He is also the author of The Power Paradox: How We Gain and Lose Influence and Born to Be Good, and a co-editor of The Compassionate Instinct. Lessons from 25 years of studying the evolution of human emotion What the hard science says about the powerful impact of gratitude Why you’re interpretation of “survival of the fittest” is totally wrong Why emotion is not something to “remove” or rid ourselves of How emotions guide social behaviors in many very important ways Does the Machveiallian conception of power still work? Studies in military organizations, schools, show about how to effectively wield power The surprising scientific data on how you can acquire and maintain power  We discuss in depth if power is given or if power is seized  What are the foundations of enduring power? importance of empathy and building strong social ties rather than serving your narrow self interest The power paradox and why the more powerful you get, the harder it is to stay powerful The importance of focusing on other people How do we create organizations and societies that prevent the abuses of power? We review and share resources for practical steps to implement all of these lessons The massive impact and power of touch to communicate emotions The shocking science of how half a second of touch can communicate almost every major emotion The hilarious gender differences in Dr. Keltner’s emotional touch research How to cultivate gratitude and awe The simple power of just saying thank you The new collaborative definition of power and how its radically different from what you may think of when you think of power And much more!

In this episode we discuss one of the most interesting results ever found in the psychological research of education, why pleasure maximization is a flawed model for human understanding, we go deep into a number of research examples, discuss the massive (and counterintuitive) difference between motivating top performers and bottom performers, and much more with Dr. Dan Ariely!   Dan Ariely is the James B. Duke Professor of Psychology and Behavioral Economics at  Duke University and is the founder of The Center for Advanced Hindsight and also the co-founder of BEworks. Dan's talks on TED have been watched over 7.8 million times. He is the author of Predictably Irrational and The Upside of Irrationality, both of which became New York Times best sellers, and he has a newly released book Payoff: The Hidden Logic That Shapes Our Motivations.  How being badly burned and spending 3 years in the hospital radically changed Dr. Dan Ariely's life How good intentions can go terribly wrong in changing behavior The two flawed models of motivation and why neither works I get interviewed by Dr Dan Ariely - he turns the mic on me and starts grilling me! The difference between momentary joy and lasting purpose Why motivation is not about YOU The critical importance of creating, meaning, improvement, and having an impact How money can demotivate and skew your motivation We get into the weeds on some fascinating experiments Dr. Dan Ariely has conducted about how money (doesn’t) motivate us Why bonuses don’t actually work The massive (and counterintuitive) difference between motivating top performers and bottom performers Why it’s much better to analyze the BARRIERS to good performance and remove them One of the most interesting results ever found in the psychological research of education Why pleasure maximization is a flawed model for human understanding We dig into the the science of motivation itself The difference between social norms and market norms (and why it’s important) Why you would rather move a couch for free, than get paid $5 to do it Ideas for how we can use psychology to change America’s education system Why suicide rate among physicians are climbing rapidly  The Crazy Day Care Story (and why its important)  How effort and complexity create affinity for things you work on Why Dr. Dan Ariely and I both love legos!  We go through half a dozen hilarious and very counter-intuitive findings from Dr. Dan Ariely's research We discuss the quest for symbolic immortality (and why it matters to you)   If you want to deeply understand how motivation really works - listen to this episode!

In this episode we discuss how our guest went from being “wildly unsuccessful”, sleeping in a used van, to launching a massive brand, the power of simple gratitude during the toughest challenges of our lives, the transformational superpowers that can change your life, the massive perspective shift you can grain from two simple words, and much more with John Jacobs.   John is the co-founder and chief creative optimist for Life is Good as well as the author of Life Is Good: The Book. He and his company have previously been featured on CNN, CNBC, Nightline, Today, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal,and much more.   The ten superpowers that can change your life What drove John to find a way to combine art and business to launch an amazing company How Life is Good went from being “wildly unsuccessful”, sleeping in a used van, to launching a massive brand Why its often the people that face the biggest adversity and trauma that embrace the real meaning of “life is good" How Life is Good takes a stand against the negativity in the news media  The incredible power of simple gratitude during the toughest challenges of our lives How to focus on optimism without ignoring the negative experiences in your life How the story of one person can transform your experience  The Amazing story of how one act of hate created a wave of love How John embarks on his mission to “spread the power of optimism" Even when facing hardest adversity - you can consciously shift your mind to the positive and grow good instead of being consumed by the negative The incredible power of optimism and strategies to become more optimistic Why you should never say you “have to” do something (and what you should say instead) Incredible, simple perspective shift you can get by changing a SINGLE WORD when you find yourself complaining The Rule of “Yes, And,” how it can have a huge impact on your life & unleash your creativity The real depth behind the concept of “life is good”and why its OK to acknowledge the painful parts of your life The importance of taking a few moments to connect with someone Why fun is “part of the main course” and not your dessert How to find simple ways to weave joy into your life

In this episode we look at the single biggest factor that impacts your performance at work, the 7 major catalysts for creating progress in your life, we dig deep into the data to look closely at the correlations between mental states and actual performance in terms of creativity, technical skill, productivity and much more with Dr. Teresa Amabile. Dr. Amabile is a Professor and Director of Research at Harvard Business School. She received her Ph.D. in psychology from Stanford. Her research investigates how life inside organizations can influence people and their performance. She has published over 100 articles in top scholarly journal and is the co-author of The Progress Principle: Using Small Wins to Ignite Joy, Engagement, and Creativity at Work, as well as Creativity in Context and Growing up Creative. We discuss: How offering a reward can undermine people’s intrinsic motivation to do something We dig deep into the nearly 12,000 daily diary entries from over 200 professionals inside organizations that formed the foundation of Teresa’s research We look closely at the correlations between mental states and actual performance in terms of creativity, technical skill, productivity and more  How positive and negative work environments arise within organizations  Your “inner work life” and why its so important (and you may not even be aware of it) How external motivators can accidentally wipe out your true motive for working and achieving your goals Why “Making Progress on Meaningful Work” is the single biggest factor impacting performance An important and powerful tool that managers can use to help people do better in their work and have better experiences every day The "intrinsic motivation principle of creativity” and why it matters to you!  The largest disconnect between what managers think motivates their employees and what the research actually shows that motivates them The 7 catalysts to creating progress in your life The importance of having clear goals (what you’re doing and why it matters) Why creating a culture where people learn from problems, failures, and mistakes is vital to success The importance of control and autonomy in your work

In this episode we explore how you can learn from dating mistakes to make better financial choices, the most expensive words in investing (and how you can avoid them), why highly qualified experts are wrong more than 94% of the time, the importance of focusing on process vs outcome and much more with Dr. Daniel Crosby. Dr. Crosby is a psychologist and behavioral finance expert as well the author of New York Times Best-Seller "Personal Benchmark: Integrating Behavioral Finance and Investment Management” as well as “Laws of Wealth: Psychology  and the secret to investing success.” He was named named one of the “12 Thinkers to Watch” by Monster.com, a “Financial Blogger You Should Be Reading” by AARP and listed on the Top 40 Under 40 by Investment News.com.  We discuss: How Daniel works to integrate the messiness of human psychology into fields like economics and finance How your emotional state colors your perception of risk How you can learn from dating mistakes to make better financial choices The most expensive words in investing (and how you can avoid them)  The insane “tulip” craze and what it says about financial markets Why in our efforts to manage risk we often create the outcomes we are trying to avoid How you control what matters most (often without realizing it) The importance of focusing on process vs outcome Why “you are not special” and how that advice can save you a lot of money!  Why experts are wrong 94% of the time Why really successful people automate their day and free up their cognitive power for more important tasks How to be aware of the biases impacting our thinking and get a second opinion The importance of being “not stupid” instead of being smart Existential boundary experiences and how they can transform you How to break out of the glorified business of our daily lives and embrace the inevitability of our own mortality 2 simple and actionable steps you can take right now to improve your personal finance and investment knowledge And much more!

In this episode we discuss the secret lessons hostage negotiators around the world use to win the day, how to understand and influence people’s emotional drivers, the two words that can transform any negotiation, the biggest hallmarks of powerful master negotiators and much more with the FBI’s former lead international kidnapping negotiator Chris Voss. Chris Voss is the founder and CEO of the Black Swan Group, an adjunct professor at Georgetown and University of Southern California. During his 24 year term with the FBI where he most recently served as the FBI’s lead international kidnapping negotiator, Voss worked approximately 150 kidnappings worldwide, from the Middle East to Haiti including a number of high-profile kidnappings. Voss has been trained by the FBI, Scotland Yard and Harvard in the art of negotiation and negotiated with likes of terrorists, hostage takers, and bank robbers. We discuss: FBI’s behvaioral change stairway they use to negotiate with terrorists and hostage takers Why emotional intelligence is at the forefront of business success today How to leverage “tactical empathy” in your life to achieve the results you want How to create leverage to influence anyone in the world by understanding their emotional drivers Why you should never be mean to someone who could hurt you by doing nothing Why understanding is NOT the same as agreement and why that is important The biggest barrier to negotiation success is not complexity - its overcoming the awkwardness How repeating the last 1-3 words someone said can have a huge impact Why winning in a negotiation is not the same as beating the other side The incredible importance of listening and how you can cultivate “active listening" The power and importance of open ended and clarifying questions How to draw out the hidden cards from the other side of a negotiation The secrets hostage negotiators AROUND THE WORLD use regardless of cultural dynamics The two most important words in any negotiation The three different types of negotiator and the strengths and weaknesses of each How changing one question totally transformed the kidnapping negotiation for Jose Escobar  Why Chris would “never lie to anyone he’s not going to kill" Why Chris hates compromise in any negotiation The “F Word” in negotiations and why you should be careful with it One of the biggest hallmarks of powerful negotiators  And much more! 

In this episode we talk about execution, how to break down big goals into actionable steps, how and why Neil hired a “mama” for himself, the “ten minute rule” that could help you achieve big productivity gains and how to optimize your life to free up huge amounts of time with entrepreneur Neil Patel. Neil is the co-founder of Crazy Egg, Hello Bar and KISSmetrics. The Wall Street Journal calls him a top influencer on the web, Forbes says he is one of the top 10 online marketers, and Entrepreneur Magazine says he created one of the 100 most brilliant companies in the world. He was recognized as a top 100 entrepreneur under the age of 30 by President Obama and one of the top 100 entrepreneurs under the age of 35 by the United Nations. Neil has also been awarded Congressional Recognition from the United States House of Representatives. We discuss: How to break huge goals into small bite sized tasks that you can quickly and easily execute How Neil defines success and why money wont make you happy The "10 minute rule" and how it can help you achieve big results “Hacks” that Neil recommends for those who want to climb the corporate ladder How to go from A to Z by skipping B, C, D etc and getting straight to the result Why you don’t have to take the traditional path the everyone else does to get what you want in life The strategy Neil uses to pitch huge deals to corporate executives How to optimize your life to save time and free your time up The rules that Neil uses to improve and use his time more efficiently How Neil hired a “mom” to cook him breakfast and do his laundry (and why!) How to manufacture and generate luck for yourself Why shouldn’t “rent your dreams" How to take action on the things that matter and actually create results, so you can stop spinning your wheels And much more!

In this episode we explore the link between trauma, mental health, learning disabilities and genius, look at a number of historical figures and how they harnessed challenges like depression and ADHD to achieve world-changing results, and examine the practical steps you can take to overcome struggles today with Dr. Gail Saltz. Dr. Gail Saltz is a Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry at the New York Presbyterian Hospital Weill Cornell School of medicine and a psychoanalyst with the New York Psychoanalytic Institute. She is a columnist, bestselling author, podcast host and television commentator and one of the nation’s foremost go-to experts on a variety of psychological and mental health issues, having appeared on Good Morning America, Dr. Oz, The View, Dateline, 20/20, Primetime, Today, CNN, CBS This Morning, MSNBC, The Oprah Winfrey Show and more. We discuss: How people like Vincent Van Gogh and Abraham Lincoln harnessed their mental issues to achieve success Deconstructing the “psychobiographies” of some of the greatest achievers in the world (DaVinci, Einstein, Lincoln, etc) Close to half of Americans struggle with some sort of mental health issue What people who are embarrassed about seeking help can do Why “mental illness” is often a STRENGTH and the greatest achievements are a often a DIRECT RESULT of struggles with issues like dyslexia, anxiety, depression, etc How Abraham Lincoln struggled his whole life with depression and why it gave him the empathy to reshape history How Einstein overcome crippling ADHD to change physics Practical steps that someone can take who is struggling with anxiety and depression right now How to hone-in on your strengths and leverage them How we get caught in defeating stories that we tell ourselves How to identify and “re-write” self-defeating stories that we tell ourselves A few actionable insights into how to improve and build relationships from one of the best sex and relationships experts in the world How to LISTEN better, improve communication, and build better relationships And more! If you think you have a challenge you can’t overcome - listen to this episode! 

In this episode we discuss how to create evil in a research laboratory, what makes people “turn evil”, we examine the definition of heroism, dig into the famous Stanford Prison Experiment, explore time paradoxes, and much more with the legendary Dr. Philip Zimbardo.  Dr. Zimbardo is an internationally recognized scholar, educator, researcher and media personality, winning numerous awards and honors in each of these domains. He has been a Stanford University professor since 1968, where he conducted the famous Stanford Prison Experiment. His career is noted for giving psychology away to the public through his popular PBS-TV series, Discovering Psychology, along with many text and trade books, among his 500+ publications. He was recently president of the American Psychological Association. We discuss: How to create evil in a research laboratory The different kinds of evil Is there a fixed line between good and evil? What is the definition of heroism (and how its distinct from altruism) How Dr. Z defines evil (and why thats important) What happens when you put only good people in a really bad situation? The inside take on the famous Stanford Prison Experiment How a situation can create an emotional breakdown in a normal, healthy, smart person in less than 36 hours The social processes that can grease the slippery slope of evil How normal people can transform into monsters The substantial risks of dehumanization The power of the heroic imagination How teachers can bring the best out in their students The time paradox and how we live with vastly different time perspectives  How conflicts derive from people’s differing time perspectives If you want to hear from a titan of psychology about the inner workings of the human mind - listen to this episode! 

In this episode we discuss the intersection between neuroscience and game theory, ask whether you are smarter than a Chimpanzee, examine how simple mental judgments can be massively wrong, explain the basics of game theory, and dig deep into strategic thinking with Dr. Colin Camerer.  Colin is the Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Finance and Economics at the California Institute of Technology. A former child prodigy Colin received his B.A in quantitative studies from John Hopkins University at the age of 17, followed by an M.B.A. in finance from the University of Chicago at the age of 19, and finally a Ph.D in behavioral decision theory from the University of Chicago at the age of 21. Colin research is focused on the interface between cognitive psychology and economics.  We discuss:  How to out-think (and think one level ahead of) your competition How we make simple mental judgments that go wrong The fundamentals of game theory and how you can practically apply it to your life Are you smarter than a chimpanzee? (the answer may surprise you) The psychological limits on strategic thinking How game theory cuts across multiple disciplines of knowledge from evolution to corporate auctions The concept of a nash equilibrium and why its important The fascinating intersections between psychology and game theory The game theory behind rock paper scissors (and the optimal strategy) Why people don’t think strategically (and why it matters) Discover if you re you a level zero thinker or a “Level K” thinker Why working memory has a strong correlation between making strategic decisions and cognitive flexibility The fascinating results behind the “false belief test" How to make strategic inferences from the knowledge that other minds have And much more!  If you want to make better decisions or have always been fascinated by game theory - listen to this episode!

In this episode we discuss how to escape the feedback loop from hell, the paradoxical idea of embracing negative experiences, why struggle creates meaning, how discover the false values underpinning your worldview, and how to cultivate the ability to sustain and handle adversity with Mark Manson. Mark is a blogger, author and entrepreneur. Most well-known for his site markmanson.net, where he writes personal development advice that doesn't suck. He also wrote a book called The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck. It doesn't suck, either. We discuss: Alan Watt’s Backwards Law (and why its so important) How to escape the Feedback Loop From Hell The paradoxical idea of embracing negative experiences How your mind invents problems for you every day Why Mark gives the advice “don’t try" How to release the judgement of your own emotions  The difference between indifference and “not giving a f*ck" The biggest “false values” you cling to that create unhappiness in your life Why "entitlement" is the idea that you deserve happiness and don’t have to struggle for it (and how that causes suffering) How to cultivate the ability to sustain and handle adversity Why the key question to living a better life is NOT “what do I want out of life?" Why struggle creates meaning and its important to feel bad sometimes What champions and world class performers focus on every day Why you should listen to Disappointment Panda Why pain is required for growth And much more! If you are dealing with a challenge and can't figure out what to do next - listen to this episode!  Warning this episode has some profanity! 

In this episode we explore the mental game of world champion performers, examine the emotional issues preventing you from achieving what you want to achieve, how those issues happen in predictable patterns that you can discover and solve, look at why people choke under pressure, and discuss how to build mental toughness with mental game coach Jared Tendler. Jared is an internationally recognized mental game coach. His clients include world champion poker players, the #1 ranked pool player in the world, professional golfers and financial traders. He is the author of two highly acclaimed books, The Mental Game of Poker 1 & 2, and host of the popular podcast “The Mental Game.” We discuss: -The emotional issues preventing you from achieving what you want are happening in predictable patterns, and you can discover them!  -Why people choke (and what to do about it) -How to cultivate mental toughness over time -Why the typical sports psychology advice doesn’t work -Lessons from 500+ of the best poker players in the world of dealing with mental game -How high expectations create self sabotage -Why emotions are the messengers and not the root cause of performance issues -Why mistakes are an inevitable and important part of the learnign process -The yin and yang of performance and learning -The characteristics of peak mental performers -How to deal with “tilt" in poker and the different kinds of “tilt" -How to use confidence intervals to deal with uncertainty  -And much more!