Peterson Perspectives: Interviews on Current Issues

Soumaya Keynes of The Economist and PIIE Senior Fellow Chad P. Bown discuss the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), the program rich countries use to offer lower tariffs to exporters in developing countries. They discuss a variety of programs—the now expired US GSP scheme, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), as well as differences with the European Union’s GSP, GSP+ and Everything But Arms (EBA) policies. They speak with Emily Blanchard (Tuck School at Dartmouth College) and Kimberly Ann Elliott (Center for Global Development) about the design flaws of one-way trade preferences and research on their impact on developing countries.

Gary Clyde Hufbauer argues that the criticism of the procedure set up in trade agreements to settle disputes between multinational corporations and states in which they invest is largely unwarranted. There is room for improvements in its procedures and processes, however.

Soumaya Keynes (The Economist) and PIIE Senior Fellow Chad P. Bown speak with Professor Meredith Crowley (University of Cambridge) about her Brexit research. Crowley describes results from her use of information on product-level UK exports and trade policies to identify the key sectoral risks of Britain exiting the European Union without a new trade deal. She also explains the uncertainty associated with UK exports to the EU facing tariff-rate quotas for agriculture, as well as trade defense instruments (anti-dumping and anti-subsidy policies) that threaten sectors like steel. They discuss the British government’s progress to date in providing sectoral analysis and the benefits to using economic models and impact assessments to identify areas of vulnerability to the British economy, including in sectors like autos.

PIIE Senior Fellow Chad P. Bown and Soumaya Keynes of The Economist focus on the December 2017 World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial meeting in Buenos Aires. They describe the contentious negotiations over India’s public stockholding program, fishing subsidies, and electronic commerce. They interview author Paul Blustein about his book “Misadventures of the Most Favored Nations: Clashing Egos, Inflated Ambitions, and the Great Shambles of the World Trade System,” including the Battle in Seattle and the Doha Development Agenda. Finally, they discuss the hold-up problem facing WTO negotiations, as well as a potential path forward through plurilateral deals.

PIIE Senior Fellow Chad P. Bown and Soumaya Keynes of The Economist survey listeners and conduct interviews from the WTO ministerial meeting in Buenos Aires, to describe some of the more bizarre—and fascinating—barriers to international trade found in human history. They analyze the economics of policies applied in countries around the world that affect bicycles and skis, the Internet, video cassette recorders and pirated movies, as well as alcohol, chocolate, and tobacco.

PIIE Senior Fellow Chad P. Bown and Soumaya Keynes of The Economist focus on a huge WTO dispute in which China is suing the European Union and the United States over their refusal to treat it as a market economy, meaning they will not put lower duties on Chinese exports. They discuss how China’s economy has evolved over time and how to define a "market economy." Special features include Keynes’s interview with European Commissioner for Trade, Cecilia Malmström, and conversations about the issues with PIIE Senior Fellow Nicholas R. Lardy and Harvard Law School Professor Mark Wu. Bown and Keynes ultimately explain the dispute's political, economic, and legal implications for the future of the entire multilateral trading system.

Soumaya Keynes of The Economist and PIIE Senior Fellow Chad P. Bown talk with PIIE Senior Fellow Marcus Noland about his research on implementing trade sanctions on North Korea. First up is his recent book with Stephan Haggard (PIIE) “Hard Target: Sanctions, Inducements, and the Case of North Korea” and the evidence behind the effectiveness of using trade policy to bring about change in North Korea. They discuss the implications of North Korea’s periods of autarky, and the commitment and coordination challenges facing countries that seek to implement trade sanctions in the modern economy, even when motivated by geopolitical concerns and the nuclear threat posed by the North Korean regime.

Soumaya Keynes of The Economist and PIIE Senior Fellow Chad P. Bown talk with PIIE Senior Fellow Caroline Freund about her research on big firms, billionaires, international trade, and economic development. First up is her recent book "Rich People Poor Countries: The Rise of Emerging-Market Tycoons and Their Mega Firms" and the evidence behind the importance of being big in international trade. They also probe the downside of unproductive wealth, the rise of inefficient behemoths in the form of state-owned enterprises, and implications for global concentration. Finally, they debate what policymakers should do to address the good and bad of big firms and the ultra rich.

PIIE Senior Fellow Chad P. Bown and Soumaya Keynes of The Economist examine the new Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). They discuss how 11 persistent countries pulled the original TPP deal from President Trump's dustbin and pushed toward agreement by suspending certain important elements. They also speak with PIIE Senior Fellow Jeffrey J. Schott about the motivation behind the agreement for countries like Japan, Australia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Mexico, and Canada and what the United States stands to lose economically from the president's choice to pull out of the Pacific deal.

PIIE Senior Fellow Chad P. Bown and Soumaya Keynes of the Economist examine the impact of international trade on economic activity within developing countries like India, Vietnam, and Brazil. They talk with Professor Nina Pavcnik of Dartmouth College about her research on how trade liberalization has impacted workers and firms, what affects their ability to adjust, and the implications for poverty reduction and inequality. They also discuss the challenges and domestic policy implications of the pockets of nonadjustment that are found—not only in America—but even in the developing world.

Monica de Bolle argues that Venezuela is giving higher priority to paying its foreign creditors than to the Venezuelan people.

Daniel Heller and Martin Chorzempa believe that policymakers need to create a regulatory framework for initial coin offerings.

PIIE Senior Fellow Chad P. Bown and Soumaya Keynes of The Economist examine what a no-deal Brexit would look like, or the economic implications if Britain were to split from the European Union without a new trade deal. They talk with Professor Swati Dhingra of the London School of Economics about her research on what reverting to World Trade Organization (WTO) tariffs would mean for the United Kingdom. They also discuss looming nontariff barriers to trade in sectors like pharmaceuticals, aviation, and financial services.

On the occasion of its 70th anniversary, PIIE Senior Fellow Chad P. Bown and Soumaya Keynes of The Economist focus on the origins of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, or GATT. They speak with the authors of "The Genesis of the GATT" (Cambridge University Press)—Professors Douglas Irwin, Petros Mavroidis, and Alan Sykes—about the gripping lead-up to the signing of the transformative trade agreement on October 30, 1947. The American Smoot-Hawley tariffs, British Imperial Preferences, World War II, Lend-Lease Act, John Maynard Keynes, James Meade, the Lacock Scholars, and many others all show up to ultimately shape the deal that governed the multilateral system over the next 70 years.

At a recent CNN town hall debate between Senators Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz, Jacob Funk Kirkegaard questioned the validity of Senator Sanders’ policy proposals to spend like a Scandinavian country while only raising taxes on the wealthiest citizens. In this Peterson Perspectives interview, Kirkegaard discusses Denmark’s effective tax rate where middle class citizens are taxed nearly 50 percent of their income.