Peterson Perspectives: Interviews on Current Issues

Keynes and Bown talk with Stephen Redding (Princeton University) about his research on the border between East and West Germany erected in the mid-20th century. They discuss the loss of market access for cities near the border, and how being cut off from one's neighbors affected the local economy. Spoiler: It wasn't pretty.

Keynes and Bown talk about trade with best-selling author and Pulitzer Prize–winning investigative journalist Bob Woodward about his latest book "Fear: Trump in the White House." Woodward's reporting sheds light on the White House's lurching policies, with telling anecdotes about snatching trade agreement withdrawal letters off the president's desk and impromptu Oval Office meetings with steel company CEOs.

Soumaya Keynes and Chad Bown describe key elements of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, or USMCA, announced on October 1, 2018. Beneath the spin, they analyze what the deal really does, including where new market access has been granted, and where new rules have been written. Will the new deal generate American jobs in car manufacturing? Will it strengthen Mexico's labor standards? Will it stop Canada from signing a future trade deal with China?

Keynes and Bown speak with Bruce Stokes (Pew Research Center) about recent poll results on public attitudes toward trade. They discuss how Americans feel about trade and trade agreements, China, differences between self-identified Democrats and Republicans, as well as attitudes in other countries toward the United States.

Keynes and Bown speak with Arvind Subramanian (PIIE, Harvard Kennedy School) about the massive changes in India’s trade policy since the 1980s. They examine the scope and impact of India’s trade liberalization; the importance of its manufacturing, agriculture, and services trade; its controversies within the WTO, and its own complex relationship with China. They also discuss Arvind’s time as chief economic adviser to the government of India and some of the challenges now confronting the country.

Keynes and Bown examine the legal arguments surrounding President Trump’s threats to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement and World Trade Organization. They speak with legal experts Gary Hufbauer (PIIE), Rachel Brewster (Duke Law School), and Joel Trachtman (Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy) about what constitutional arguments and legal precedent might—and might not—constrain a president from taking such an action without the approval of Congress.

Keynes and Bown examine Canada's talks with the Trump administration over the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement. They speak with Meredith Lilly (Carleton University) and Madelaine Drohan (The Economist) about Canada's dairy supply management system, cultural exemptions, intellectual property for biologics, dispute resolution, and diversifying exports to lessen dependence on an unreliable US market.

Keynes and Bown examine the still murky details on autos and a potential sunset clause for the Mexico–United States trade agreement—which the Trump administration says is designed to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). They also discuss what’s next for the negotiations with Canada as well as how economists would evaluate whether any final deal is actually a good one.

Soumaya Keynes and Chad Bown have a conversation with Jason Furman (PIIE, Harvard Kennedy School)—a former senior economic adviser of the Obama administration—about American economic policy. They ask Furman about economic and trade policy during the Great Recession, supporting displaced workers, US trade policy toward China, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and President Trump’s approach.

Soumaya Keynes and Chad Bown explore the aluminum industry: how to make it, changes in North American production over the past few decades, and the industry's real complaints. They discuss the Trump administration’s tariffs on imported aluminum with Heidi Brock of the American Aluminum Association, and Delphine Dahan-Kocher of Constellium.

Soumaya Keynes and Chad Bown describe how the Trump administration’s quotas imposed on steel imports from South Korea, Brazil, and Argentina are different from the simple application of tariffs. They speak with Ambassador Jennifer Hillman—former administrator of US quotas for textiles and apparel in the 1990s—and Aaron Padilla (American Petroleum Institute) to explain the structure of Trump’s quotas, the perverse economic incentives and unintended consequences they create, and the new difficulties facing American businesses.

Soumaya Keynes and Chad Bown explain the US government decision to offer up to $12 billion of subsidies to farmers adversely affected by trade retaliation stemming from President Trump’s tariffs on steel, aluminum, and China. They speak with Joe Glauber (IFPRI, former USDA) about US farm subsidies past and present, including the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter Act, as well as America’s legal commitments under the WTO to limit agricultural payouts.

Keynes and Bown detail an emerging approach for the European Union, Japan, China—and the Trump administration—to resolve the conflict over subsidies, one of the most pressing challenges confronting the World Trade Organization. They explain the fight over industrial subsidies and analyze the EU-Japan-US approach to tackling problems of notifications, state-owned enterprises, excess capacity, and public bodies.

Keynes and Bown compare President Donald Trump’s tariffs imposed to date—on solar panels, washing machines, steel, aluminum, and Chinese imports—with other major American protectionist episodes. They speak to economic historian Douglas A. Irwin (PIIE) about the Reagan administration’s protectionism in the 1980s, the 1971 Nixon shock, the 1960s US-Europe chicken war, and the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariff.

Soumaya Keynes (The Economist) and Chad P. Bown (PIIE) explain the outsized importance of “zeroing”—a technical, yet politically controversial method the United States uses to calculate antidumping tariffs. They speak to Thomas Prusa (Rutgers University) about zeroing’s contentious negotiating history, how it works in practice, who is in favor of it, and how much trade is affected by it. They also discuss how the dozens of WTO disputes the United States has lost over this issue set up the current showdown facing the WTO Appellate Body and the future of the trading system.