Peterson Perspectives: Interviews on Current Issues

The World Trade Organization authorizes new US retaliatory tariffs on EU imports in one of its biggest and longest-running formal disputes in history. Former WTO Appellate Member Jennifer Hillman (Council on Foreign Relations) joins to explain the complexity of the case and what happens next. They discuss WTO rules on subsidies, upcoming US retaliatory tariffs on imported airplanes, billions of dollars of imported European cheeses, alcohol, and other consumer products, as well as the products the United States left off this round of retaliation.

A strengthening dollar reignites a recurring debate about how to hit back against countries that deliberately weaken the value of their currencies. Joseph Gagnon (PIIE) and Maury Obstfeld (PIIE, Berkeley) join to discuss two recent and controversial policies proposed to attack that problem. The first is retaliatory tariffs under US countervailing duty law. The second is to give the US Treasury and Federal Reserve new access to hundreds of billions of dollars to use as countervailing currency intervention.

Erin Ennis and Jake Parker (US-China Business Council) join to explain results from the USCBC’s annual survey of its members of American companies doing business in China. They describe the original purpose and nearly 20-year history of the survey, as well as the latest findings about what worries American companies in China. They also discuss how companies miscommunicate with both the US and Chinese governments, how they feel about the Section 301 investigation and the tariffs, and how they are being treated during the trade war.

Nicholas Lardy joins to provide an update on Chinese economic performance over the year since the summer 2018 outset of the trade war. They assess a number of President Trump’s recent statements by examining data on China’s economic growth, exports, unemployment, and foreign investment taking place in the Chinese economy.

Yuan Yang (Financial Times) joins to explain the allegations and complications surrounding Chinese telecom equipment maker Huawei. They discuss alleged risks to national security, IP theft, unfair trade, sanctions violations, export controls, the entity list, and more.

Anand Menon (The UK in a Changing Europe) joins Keynes and Bown to provide an update on political developments, as well as the shifting timeline, for Britain to depart from the European Union with or without a trade agreement. They also discuss shortages, contingency planning, and the expected initial economic impact if no deal were to arrive.

Kadee Russ (University of California Davis) joins Keynes and Bown to discuss her research on why Korea’s trade surplus grew so widely after the Korea-US (KORUS) Free Trade Agreement went into effect in 2012. They explain the role of trade diversion, or US imports from South Korea displacing imports previously coming in from other countries like China and Mexico. They also discuss contributions due to differences in US and South Korean rates of economic growth, and the right way to think about trade deficits.

Jeromin Zettelmeyer (Peterson Institute for International Economics) joins Keynes and Bown to explain the growth of Germany’s trade and current account surplus, and the puzzle behind why it has not gone away. They discuss the role of the Europe Union, the value of the Euro, ways German policymakers could tackle the surplus, as well as worries over the return of economic nationalism.

Sophie Richardson (Human Rights Watch) joins Keynes and Bown in a wide-ranging conversation about human rights in China. They begin with basic human rights before turning to recent Chinese government efforts to surveil, detain and politically re-educate hundreds of thousands of Uighurs – the minority Turkic and Muslim community – in Xinjiang province. They also describe the concerns driving the Hong Kong protests, how countries and the United Nations Human Rights Council could hold the Chinese government accountable, as well as linkages between external efforts to improve human rights and the connection between the Chinese and the rest of the world’s economies.

Keynes and Bown discuss the Trump administration’s announcement to impose new tariffs totaling $300 billion of Chinese imports split across September 1 and December 15, 2019. Each tariff list targets a different set of consumer goods for the first time, and yet their rollout also avoids import surges associated with peak American shopping seasons. They also describe new evidence of heightening concerns of conditions in the US and global economy.

Keynes and Bown discuss the Trump administration’s decision to name China a currency manipulator. They are joined by former IMF Chief Economist Maury Obstfeld (PIIE, University of California, Berkeley), Joseph Gagnon (PIIE), and Alice Fulwood (The Economist), who help explain what affects the value of the US dollar, the history of Chinese currency manipulation, the challenge of identifying a country as a currency manipulator, and the implications of the Trump administration’s actions today.

Keynes and Bown discuss the Trump administration’s decision to name China a currency manipulator. They are joined by former IMF Chief Economist Maury Obstfeld (PIIE), Joseph Gagnon (PIIE), and Alice Fulwood (The Economist), who help explain what affects the value of the US dollar, the history of Chinese currency manipulation, the challenge of identifying a country as a currency manipulator, and the implications of the Trump administration’s actions today.

Adam Posen (Peterson Institute for International Economics) joins Keynes and Bown to discuss the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in 10 years. They describe the uncertainty facing central bankers, the impact of the global economy on their decision-making, and whether there is a relationship between their actions and President Trump’s tariffs.

Adam Posen (Peterson Institute for International Economics) joins Keynes and Bown to discuss the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in 10 years. They describe the uncertainty facing central bankers, the impact of the global economy on their decision-making, and whether there is a relationship between their actions and President Trump’s tariffs.

Former United States Trade Representative Michael Froman* joins Keynes and Bown to discuss the Obama administration’s approach toward China and the World Trade Organization. On China, they describe the challenge of relying on allies and US companies when using WTO dispute settlement, the utility of the US-China bilateral investment treaty negotiations, and the links between trade and national security. On the WTO, they discuss the deals that were agreed, the decision to end the Doha Round of negotiations, and the Obama administration’s frustrations with the Appellate Body.