Asia's Developing Future

The International Monetary Fund learned a thing or two from the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which helped it respond better to the 2008 global financial crisis. Thanks to IMF assistance, troubled countries were in a better position to weather the global crisis. The IMF provided financing to more than 30 countries that saw investors and capital flee financial markets. On average, IMF financing after the global crisis was larger than after the Asian crisis by more than 3 percentage points of gross domestic product. The IMF lent to countries beyond normal limits and increased the size of assistance in several instances when the initial amount wasn’t enough to curb capital outflow and stabilize exchange rates. The bigger financing packages and other innovations it introduced from 2008 to 2011 showed the IMF had learned its lesson from the Asian financial crisis, when inadequate financing contributed to the failure of IMF programs to stop capital outflows and currency free-falls. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2uiB0JC Read the working paper https://www.adb.org/publications/assessing-effectiveness-imf-programs-following-global-financial-crisis About the authors Carlos De Resende is a senior economist at the Institute for Capacity Development of the International Monetary Fund. Shinji Takagi is professor emeritus of economics at Osaka University and visiting research professor at the Asian Growth Research Institute, Fukuoka, Japan. Know more about ADBI’s work on the global financial crisis https://bit.ly/2m8OSlL https://bit.ly/2J6XC5e

Strong and consistent incentives and greater policy stability and coordination between levels of government are needed to engender green energy financing in New Zealand and Australia, according to the Asian Development Bank Institute. New Zealand, on the face of it, looks impressive with a generating mix of over 80% renewables, but this is largely the legacy of state intervention in decades past and masks high per-capita greenhouse gas emission due to intensive agriculture. Much more could be done to encourage distributed generation (such as houses with rooftop solar panels) and electrification of transport. Australia, however, still has a system dominated by coal, and although it has had more policies to promote renewables, their effect has been muted: renewables’ contribution stands at just 17%. The reasons: political instability and policy fragmentation between state and federal administrations. Commitment to energy transition is lacking across all parties and regulators. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2L0ZNsB Read the working paper https://www.adb.org/publications/green-energy-finance-australia-and-new-zealand About the authors Ivan Diaz-Rainey is co-director at the Otago Energy Research Centre and associate professor of finance at the Department of Accountancy and Finance, University of Otago, New Zealand. Greg Sise is managing director at Energy Link in Dunedin, New Zealand. Know more about ADBI’s work on green energy https://bit.ly/2KNcWtz https://bit.ly/2u6kZXF

One of India’s major exports can readily be seen in computer science faculties, at information technology events, or among programmers and developers in most parts of the world—the IT professional. India is a major global supplier of IT professionals, especially to Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member countries, but stricter immigration policies in countries, including the US and the UK in the wake of Brexit, may dent their job prospects, forcing an increased focus on the People’s Republic of China and Japan. An Asian Development Bank Institute report by Anthony D’Costa of the University of Melbourne found the entire Indian IT industry is estimated to employ directly 2.5 million to 3 million people, with another 10 million or so indirectly in low-wage services. But with much of the domestic industry focused on the lower end of the market, going abroad is one of the few attractive options for upward mobility. Restrictive immigration policies mean this is not always feasible. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2KLIz2v Read the report https://www.adb.org/publications/labor-migration-asia About the author Anthony P. D’Costa is chair and professor, Contemporary Indian Studies Director, Development Studies Program, University of Melbourne, Australia. Know more about ADBI’s work on labor https://bit.ly/2LYGzF5 https://bit.ly/2LYGKQL

China’s financial system is developing rapidly, swelling the country’s bank assets to become the largest in the world, and there are worrying similarities with the global dominance of Japan’s banks in the late 1980s. Japan’s experience ended in tears with the bursting of a domestic and international financial and real asset bubble, heralding the economy’s descent into on-and-off recessions for the next 3 decades and stubborn deflation. Research done for the Asian Development Bank Institute found that, despite the rapid development of capital markets since the 1990s, China’s financial system continues to be dominated by bank lending. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2z8u1sp Read the working paper https://www.adb.org/publications/development-and-transformation-prc-financial-system About the authors Damian Tobin is a lecturer on Chinese business and management at the School of Finance and Management, SOAS University of London. Ulrich Volz is head of the Department of Economics at the same institution. Know more about ADBI’s work on the People’s Republic of China’s financial system: https://bit.ly/2KuB9o4 https://bit.ly/2lUj0BD

Developing economies often lack sophisticated equity markets, meaning that firms that are focused on innovation must rely on bank lending. But tight bank policies can undermine the culture of innovation that is essential to growth. Research conducted for the Asian Development Bank Institute concludes that deregulation creates a dynamic banking sector that, depending on the development stage, can either aid or hinder innovation. The gradual deregulation of US banks over 20 years since 1970 is particularly instructive. During this period, some US banks responded to deregulation by making credit more available to out-of-state firms. Others consolidated locally by opening new regional branches. Comparing the two patterns shows how extending credit markets aided innovation, while regional expansion generally hindered it. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2lAx1Uw Read the report https://www.adb.org/publications/banking-and-innovation-review About the authors Chen Lin is a professor at the University of Hong Kong. Sibo Liu is a PhD candidate at the University of Hong Kong. Lai Wei is an assistant professor at Lingnan University, Hong Kong, China. Know more about ADBI’s work on banking https://bit.ly/2K8n5AH https://bit.ly/2K8ncfB

Central banks and regulators should be on the frontline of fighting the carbon emissions driving climate change, and a more proactive approach can address the visible side effects in Asia, such as the annual choking smoke haze that envelops parts of the region. Authorities should take account of climate risks as part of their duties of oversight, and “green finance” should play a major role in ensuring the investments needed to promote development are conducted in a sustainable fashion, says Ulrich Volz of the SOAS University of London. Green finance is defined as all forms of investment or lending that consider environmental factors. This is particularly important in Asian economies, including the Peoples’ Republic of China, where pollution and carbon emissions have been a significant brake on growth due to issues ranging from water and air pollution to higher healthcare costs. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2MoSr2A Listen to the entire presentation https://bit.ly/2tsls6y About the author Ulrich Volz is head of the Department of Economics, SOAS University of London. Know more about ADBI’s work on climate change https://bit.ly/2MX4CVi https://bit.ly/2Kl4xck

With aging becoming a pressing issue in many countries, especially in Asia, governments need better indicators that track the well-being of the elderly to craft policies to better meet the needs of the aged. Many countries do not have the data needed for sound policy making, planning, and investment targeting, which leads to piecemeal public policies with little sense of priority. The People’s Republic of China, Thailand, and Viet Nam are just some of the countries relatively unprepared to deal with their rapidly aging societies. Multilateral and nongovernment organizations have developed several global aging indexes that focus on various aspects of aging and well-being. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2K4HQwe Read the blog post https://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/2018/03/piecemeal-policy-approaches-to-aging-societies-can-they-be-avoided-with-proper-data-on-well-being/ About the author Claude Bodart is an international advisor at the Center for Ageing at the Beijing Normal University Know more about ADBI’s work on aging in China https://bit.ly/2JRrsQg

Businesses around the world need to pay closer attention to technology, design, branding, and other forms of intangible assets, if they want an edge over their competitors in keeping customers interested. About a third of the value of goods manufactured globally comes from intangible capital, highlighting the need for businesses to protect the intellectual property of these types of assets to stay competitive. This is among the findings of a new study from the World Intellectual Property Organization, titled 2017 World Intellectual Property Report—Intangible Capital in Global Value Chains. The report looks at the role of intangible capital in global value chains, the range of activities needed to manufacture a product and deliver it to consumers. Carsten Fink, chief economist of the World Intellectual Property Organization, says the study shows that the value of intangible capital amounted to $5.9 trillion in 2014, contributing twice as much as tangible capital. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2tk9qeh Watch the presentation https://bit.ly/2K0hect About the speaker Carsten Fink is chief economist of the World Intellectual Property Organization, Geneva, Switzerland Know more about ADBI’s work on intellectual property https://bit.ly/2MEu2Hc https://bit.ly/2JW4Tpr

Fintech or, more fully, financial technology, is the buzz word in the startup world. But while the winners in this revolution are entrepreneurs and investors, there are clear benefits for the developing world. According to a new book from the Asian Development Bank Institute, Labor Migration in Asia: Increasing the Development Impact of Migration through Finance and Technology, lowering the cost of remittances for Asian workers employed in other parts of the world will improve the overall socioeconomic outcomes of their countries of origin. The research on the benefits of remittances is clear. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development says a 10% rise in remittances—that is, money sent home to the region by its expatriate workers—could lead to a 3.5% fall in the number of people living in poverty. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2JJJ0wZ Read the report https://www.adb.org/publications/labor-migration-asia About the event organizers and report editors Aladdin Rillo was with ADBI at the time of the event and organized the event. He worked with Jean-Christophe Dumont and Jonathan Chaloff, from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and Nilim Baruah, from the International Labour Organization. Know more about ADBI’s work on labor https://bit.ly/2LYGzF5 https://bit.ly/2LYGKQL

World oil price volatility affects the economies of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as well as their non-OPEC counterparts, but little attention is paid to non-OPEC economies, which don’t have a formal bloc to lobby for them. But non-OPEC energy exporters have taken a more significant role as oil demand has increased since the late 1990s. OPEC is no longer the main exporter, and the increased demand for oil, due in part to the rapid economic development of India and the People’s Republic of China, has led to a greater diversification of suppliers. Research by the Asian Development Bank Institute looks at one of the largest non-OPEC oil-exporting countries, the Russian Federation. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2JB3Wmn Read the report https://www.adb.org/publications/impact-world-oil-prices-energy-exporting-economy-including-monetary-policy About the authors Victoriia Alekhina is a PhD candidate of economics at Keio University, Tokyo. Naoyuki Yoshino is dean of the Asian Development Bank Institute. Know more about ADBI’s work on oil https://bit.ly/2MkPn8z

As parts of the developed world tighten foreign worker laws and maintain a hostile rhetoric against “immigrants” and “refugees,” a new report shows Asian migrant workers add economic value to their new countries. US President Donald Trump is sending troops to the Mexican border to clamp down on unauthorized arrivals, and European leaders face a backlash for liberal migration policies, but Asian Development Bank Institute research debunks the myth that new migrants are a drain on the government’s coffers through welfare payments. It suggests new arrivals in countries, including Australia, Canada, the US, and New Zealand, do integrate into society by finding jobs at no cost to established residents. The report does not differentiate between the types of migrants, whether they be skilled, unskilled, or refugees, and focuses only on those born in Asia. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2Ln5Ash Read the report https://www.adb.org/publications/labor-migration-asia About the event organizers and report editors Aladdin Rillo was with ADBI at the time of the event and organized the event. He worked with Jean-Christophe Dumont and Jonathan Chaloff, from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and Nilim Baruah, from the International Labour Organization. Know more about ADBI’s work on labor https://bit.ly/2LYGzF5 https://bit.ly/2LYGKQL

Headlines about the rebirth of a trans-Pacific trade pact in Santiago, Chile in March have concentrated on the absence of the United States from the 11-nation agreement, or the trade gains expected for each of its signatories. But those aren’t the only issues at stake in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP-11, signed among Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Viet Nam. Other areas that may prove important include the aspects of the pact that deal with infrastructure investment and rules on capital flows and foreign investment. Grant Stillman, legal advisor to the Asian Development Bank Institute, explains what is at stake. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2sHpAy3 Read the blog post https://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/2018/03/next-generation-of-quality-development-and-investment-in-the-new-pacific-trade-pact/ About the speaker Grant Stillman is legal advisor to the Asian Development Bank Institute. Know more about ADBI’s work on the Trans-Pacific Partnership https://bit.ly/2JisyAr

Ghost cities full of empty apartment blocks are evidence of the central government’s failure to slow booming house construction in the People’s Republic of China. Conflicting incentives for local government officials, and a lack of alternative investments in China, have meant even the toughest of restrictions haven’t been able to stop developers building ever more houses. The housing industry is a big part of China’s economy. Real estate accounts for one-sixth of its GDP, a quarter of total fixed asset investment, 14% of urban employment, and 20% of bank loans. Research done for the Asian Development Bank Institute finds that the central government has maintained a firm hand on the sector for the 20 years or so since widespread property ownership was first permitted. Xiaping Cao of Lingnan College, Sun Yat-sen University, Bihong Huang of the Asian Development Bank Institute, and Rose Neng Lai of the University of Macau argued such a policy loosens or tightens various control measures depending on whether the government wants more or less growth in the sector. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2GXTvrb Read the report https://www.adb.org/publications/impact-exogenous-demand-shock-housing-market-evidence-prc About the authors Xiaping Cao is associate professor of finance at Lingnan College, Sun Yat-sen University. Bihong Huang is a research fellow at the Asian Development Bank Institute. Rose Neng Lai is a professor of finance at the University of Macau. Know more about ADBI’s work on housing https://www.adb.org/adbi/research/housing-policy https://bit.ly/2seqsuK

A growth slowdown in the People’s Republic of China causing a decline in trade would be felt across Asia, with commodity exporters and trade partners closest to the country hit hardest. Although the region’s dependence on trade with China has been expanding fast, the effects of such a slowdown would not be catastrophic, says a new book published by the Asian Development Bank Institute. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2x7Fyau Read the book https://www.adb.org/publications/slowdown-prc-structural-factors-and-implications-asia About the authors Peter Morgan is co-chair of ADBI’s Research Department. Fan Zhai is the former managing director of the China Investment Corporation. About the book editors Peter Morgan is co-chair of the Research Department at the Asian Development Bank Institute. Justin Yi-fu Lin is director of the Center for New Structural Economics, Peking University, China. Guanghua Wan is director of the Institute of World Economy, Fudan University, China. Know more about ADBI’s work on PRC https://bit.ly/2vVC0Yi https://bit.ly/2vQ3fDf

Domestic structural change is necessary if the People's Republic of China is to sustain economic growth of as high as 8% a year over the next 10 years. Research published in an Asian Development Bank Institute book, Slowdown in the People’s Republic of China, Structural Factors and the Implications for Asia, found the worldwide trade slowdown that followed the global financial crisis in 2008 is mostly to blame for the recent decline in China’s growth rate. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2IH1aPj Read the book https://www.adb.org/publications/slowdown-prc-structural-factors-and-implications-asia About the book editors Peter Morgan is co-chair of the Research Department at the Asian Development Bank Institute. Justin Yi-fu Lin is director of the Center for New Structural Economics, Peking University, China. Guanghua Wan is director of the Institute of World Economy, Fudan University, China. Know more about ADBI’s work on PRC https://bit.ly/2vVC0Yi https://bit.ly/2vQ3fDf