Lowy Institute: Live Events

The Lowy Institute hosted the Aus–PNG Network Melbourne social evening at the State Library of Victoria. Opening remarks for the evening were delivered by Mr Bruce Davis, Australian High Commissioner to PNG. Lowy Institute Research Fellow Shane McLeod chaired a panel discussion, 'PNG-Australia Education Links: Empowering girls and women in science and technology'. The panel included: Mary Mulcahy (AUS), Director, Education and Outreach for CSIRO Edea Bouraga (PNG), Mechanical Engineer and current chair of Women in Engineering. Sarah Chapman (AUS), Head of Science, Townsville State High School. Nylah Torova (PNG), PNG student at Rockhampton Girls Grammar School. Mr Sakias Tameo, PNG Deputy High Commissioner to Australia, gave closing remarks. The Aus–PNG Network is a Lowy Institute project aimed at strengthening people-to-people links between Australia and Papua New Guinea. The Lowy Institute acknowledges the ongoing support of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade for the Aus–PNG Network.

Since 2012 several hundred Australians have travelled to Syria and Iraq to undertake jihad with Islamic State, al-Qaeda or other radical Islamist groups. Dozens more supported them financially or in the planning of attacks. There are many preconceptions about the types of people in Australia attracted to jihad, but there has been little data publicly available on which to base these assumptions. For the first time, Lowy Institute Fellow Rodger Shanahan has collected and analysed data on 173 individuals known to have joined radical Islamist terrorist organisations or who have been charged with terrorism offences. This new analysis provides comprehensive information on the backgrounds of Australians who have undertaken jihad, which will enhance our understanding of the typologies and motivations of those who are likely to be attracted to similar messaging in the future. Rodger Shanahan had a conversation with Lowy Institute Research Fellow Kelsey Munro to discuss this unique analysis of the Australian terrorist scene.

“The fog of Australian politics on climate change has obscured a fateful reality: Australia has the potential to be an economic superpower of the future post-carbon world,” argues Dr Ross Garnaut in his new book Superpower: Australia’s low-carbon opportunity. The Lowy Institute hosted a conversation between Dr Garnaut and Roland Rajah, Director of the Lowy Institute International Economy Program, about the role Australia can play in meeting this critical global challenge. Ross Garnaut is Professorial Research Fellow in Economics at the University of Melbourne. In 2008, he produced the Garnaut Climate Change Review for the Australian government. He is the author of many books, including the bestselling Dog Days (2013).

The Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen has written a provocative new book, 'Our Very Own Brexit', arguing that the political conditions which created Brexit also exist in Australia. But forget what you have read about populism and the rise of right-wing xenophobia. What Australia has in common with Britain and other Western democracies is something we rarely talk about: the steady decline of our big political parties. The ‘hollowed out’ state of contemporary politics could lead one of our political parties to exploit an issue that ties Australia to Asia and which will determine our future security: immigration. The Lowy Institute hosted an in-conversation event with Sam and award-winning journalist George Megalogenis to mark the launch of 'Our Very Own Brexit'. Sam Roggeveen is Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program. Sam writes for newspapers, magazines, and websites around the world about Australian politics, foreign policy, and defence policy. He is the founding editor of the Lowy Institute’s digital magazine, 'The Interpreter'. This event was presented by Lowy Institute at the NGV.

As the United Kingdom faces a divisive but potentially decisive election framed around Brexit, the European Union is contemplating a future without the UK. If British voters back Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit plan, what sort of future relationship will the EU look to build with the UK? What will be the impact on Ireland and Northern Ireland? And how will Brexit affect Australia's ties with the EU? If the opposition triumphs, what are the chances that Brexit could be reversed and the UK's relationship with the EU reset? Ben Bland, the Director of the Lowy Institute's Southeast Asia Project, had a conversation with Pat Cox, former European Parliament President, on the withdrawal of the UK from the EU and its implications for the Union, the UK, and Ireland. Pat Cox served three terms in the European Parliament, and was President of the Parliament from 2002 to 2004. Prior to entering the European Parliament, he served in Ireland’s national parliament and worked in academia and the media. He is currently President of the Jean Monnet Foundation for Europe.

In March 2019, Islamic State officially lost its caliphate. The last remaining sliver of territory under its control was overtaken by Coalition forces, and US President Donald Trump declared the militant group “100% defeated”. Yet Islamic State remains defiant. Its reclusive leader has made two public pronouncements encouraging his followers since the fall of the caliphate. It retains affiliate networks around the world, and in the wake of its defeat, it committed one of the largest terrorist attacks ever – the Easter Bombings in Colombo, Sri Lanka. But what does Islamic State mean without its caliphate, and in what ways does the organisation still pose a global threat? How are we to deal with the thousands of supporters, mostly women, who remain held with their children in camps run by Syrian Democratic Forces? How has Islamic State managed to maintain its presence in Asia while it has lost its caliphate? Has Asia become a new growth area for the group after its decline in the Middle East? Daniel Flitton, the Managing Editor of the Lowy Institute's digital magazine, The Interpreter, discussed these questions and more with Lowy Institute Research Fellow Lydia Khalil, following her latest analysis on the future of Islamic State.

What made America a great power? What is Trump doing to weaken America on the global stage, and what must the US do to revive its global leadership after the Trump presidency? Distinguished American diplomat Nicholas Burns, the Lowy Institute’s 2019 Rothschild & Co Distinguished International Fellow, gave a speech at the National Gallery of Victoria in Melbourne Nicholas Burns is a Professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and served for 27 years in the US Foreign Service. Ambassador Burns was Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, US Ambassador to NATO for President George W Bush and to Greece for President Bill Clinton, and State Department spokesman for Secretaries Warren Christopher and Madeleine Albright.

On October 10, the Lowy Institute hosted Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte for a public address. Mr Rutte spoke about the future of the global rules-based order. Following his speech the Institute’s Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove conducted a Q&A session with Mr Rutte. Described by the BBC as a “modest but steely liberal”, Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte is an important figure in European politics. He has been at the centre of Europe’s Brexit negotiations with the UK, has led the Netherlands’ response to the Malaysia Airlines MH-17 tragedy, in which 193 Dutch citizens and 27 Australians lost their lives, and he has witnessed and fought the rise of populist parties in Dutch elections. He has served as Prime Minister since 2010.

How should the US and Australia plan for a future of both strategic competition and cooperation with China? How do we get the balance between them right? The distinguished American diplomat Nicholas Burns, the Lowy Institute’s 2019 Rothschild & Co Distinguished International Fellow, addressed these questions in the 2019 Owen Harries Lecture. The annual Owen Harries Lecture honours the enormous contribution Mr Harries, a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute, has made to the international policy debate in Australia. Nicholas Burns is a Professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and served for 27 years in the US Foreign Service. Ambassador Burns was Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, US Ambassador to NATO for President George W Bush and to Greece for President Bill Clinton, and State Department spokesman for Secretaries Warren Christopher and Madeleine Albright. The Lowy Institute acknowledges the generous support of Rothschild & Co for the Fellowship.

Australia finds itself in an increasingly precarious position. The relationship between Australia’s traditional ally, the United States, and its largest trading partner, China, continues its precipitous decline. Four out of Australia’s top five trading partners are embroiled in trade wars, and a global economic slowdown is underway. At the same time, Beijing’s deepening embrace of authoritarianism and expanding global ambitions continue to rattle Australia’s regional allies and partners. As our political leaders grapple with new and daunting foreign policy challenges, what do Australians think about the world? The Lowy Institute Poll has surveyed Australians on their views for the past 15 years. In the span of a generation, the Poll has uncovered striking changes in public opinion about Australia’s most important neighbours and partners as well as the challenges to national security and prosperity. What is driving these changing views? And how should our political leaders respond? The Lowy Institute hosted a panel discussion with Natasha Kassam, Director of the 2019 Lowy Institute Poll; Greg Sheridan, foreign editor for The Australian; Dr Danielle Chubb, Senior Lecturer in International Relations at Deakin University, and David Olsson, former Managing Partner of international law firm King & Wood Mallesons; moderated by Daniel Flitton, Managing Editor of the Lowy Institute’s international magazine, The Interpreter. This event was presented by Lowy Institute at the NGV.

The Pacific Islands region has vaulted back to the centre of Australian foreign policy thinking. Prime Minister Morrison has positioned Australia’s “step up” in the region as his signature foreign-policy initiative. Other governments have responded with their own “redial”, “pivot”, “uplift”, and “elevation” plans. Much of this reaction is being driven by China’s rise, with analysts fearing China will try to leverage its influence – be it debt, diplomacy, or trade – to achieve strategic outcomes, including setting up a military base. Great power competition has returned to the Pacific. Foreign aid is often the first tool used by nations to engage in this vulnerable region. Each year, more than US$2 billion in foreign aid is invested in the Pacific from more than 60 donors. But aid is often opaque and hard to trace, lacks detail, and is difficult to access. The Lowy Institute Pacific Aid Map fills this gap, providing an analytical too that collates and analyses data on all aid projects in the Pacific. This event launched the second-year update of the map, which incorporates new data and new functionality, and presented new analysis of Chinese debt diplomacy and its impact on debt sustainability in the Pacific. Lowy Institute researchers discussed what’s new in the Lowy Institute Pacific Aid Map, and what it can tell us about the broader geopolitical developments playing out in Australia’s immediate region. Jonathan Pryke is Director of the Lowy Institute Pacific Islands Program. Alexandre Dayant is a Research Fellow in the Lowy Institute Pacific Islands Program, and lead researcher of the Pacific Aid Map. Roland Rajah is Director of the Lowy Institute International Economy Program. The discussion was moderated by Lowy Institute Research Fellow Natasha Kassam.

The news today is dominated by trade issues in a way not seen since perhaps the clash between the United States and Japan in the 1980s. The headlines point to a trade war between the United States and China, and strained trade relations between South Korea and Japan. The trading system has not delivered new multilateral agreements during the last five years. The WTO dispute-settlement system appears to be breaking down. It appears to be getting easier to depart from international agreements. What is the current status of these issues, how do they affect the operations of the WTO, and what (if any) is the good news? What can be achieved by June 2020, when the next formal WTO ministerial meeting will be held? What is the long-term picture for multilateralism? Are regional arrangements going to be the new architecture of the trading system? Is the pendulum swinging permanently away from global value chains? The Lowy Institute hosted Alan Wolff, Deputy Director-General of the WTO, for a discussion of the risks and opportunities facing world trade at this decisive moment. Mr Wolff became WTO Deputy Director-General in October 2017, after a long career in international trade, including as chief trade lawyer of the US executive branch, Chairman of the National Foreign Trade Council, as a senior US trade negotiator, and private law practitioner. He has served and advised both Republican and Democratic administrations in the US.

Intensifying strategic competition between the US and China is having ramifications around the globe. The risk of military conflict is growing in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Global economic growth is slowing, and supply chains are shifting. China and Russia are forging closer ties in response to commonly perceived threats. Will US-China competition abate or increase? How can Australia best navigate these dangerous shoals? Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow Bonnie Glaser gave a speech, followed by a Q&A with Michael Fullilove, the Institute’s Executive Director. Bonnie Glaser is a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute and senior adviser for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where she directs the CSIS China Power Project. Ms Glaser is an expert on Chinese foreign and security policy, and has served as a consultant for several US government agencies including the Departments of Defense and State. Ms Glaser has published widely in academic journals such as Washington Quarterly and International Security as well as leading newspapers including the New York Times and International Herald Tribune.

The last wave of globalisation delivered enormous economic benefits. But the massive social disruption and displacement fell disproportionately on less-skilled workers, helping to spawn the current populist revolt. The next wave of globalisation, however, might prove different, as emerging technologies combine with global economic forces to create a whole new set of opportunities and challenges. Richard Baldwin, one of the world's leading globalisation experts, argues that the inhuman speed of this transformation threatens to overwhelm our capacity to adapt. Digital technology is allowing talented foreigners to telecommute into our workplaces and compete for service and professional jobs. Instant machine translation is melting language barriers, so the ranks of these "tele-migrants" will soon include almost every educated person in the world. The combination of globalisation and rising automation means the next wave of disruption could risk a globotics upheaval that threatens the very foundations of the liberal welfare state. Professor Baldwin gave a talk on his new book, 'The Globotics Upheaval: Globalization, Robotics, and the Future of Work.' You can purchase copies of 'The Globotics Upheaval' from Booktopia, Amazon AU and Hachette Australia.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo was decisively re-elected in April but his second, and final, term in office looks set to be anything but plain sailing. The election revealed deep divides in the world’s most populous Muslim-majority nation, with politics polarised along religious lines. The economy remains sluggish despite promises of structural reforms to unlock rapid growth. And Indonesia’s democratic system, long seen as a beacon of progress, is facing intensifying challenges, from crackdowns on free speech to a deterioration in the protection of minority rights. The Indonesia Update has been an annual event held by the Australian National University in Canberra since 1983; this panel discussion was part of the 14th abbreviated Sydney edition held by the Lowy Institute. Dr Eve Warburton is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Asia Research Institute. Dr Warburton received her PhD in 2018 from the Australian National University’s Coral Bell School of Asia and Pacific Affairs, where she researched the political economy of economic nationalism in Indonesia’s natural resource industries. Burhanuddin Muhtadi is a Senior Lecturer at the Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, State Islamic University, Jakarta. He is also an executive director of Indonesian Political Indicator and Director of Public Affairs at Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI). Dr Martin Daniel Siyaranamual is an applied microeconomist with broad empirical interests. He earned a doctoral degree in economics from Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Italy and a bachelor’s degree in economics from Padjadjaran University, where he is also a lecturer at the department of economics. The discussion was chaired by Ben Bland, the Director of the Lowy Institute's Southeast Asia Project.