Lowy Institute: Live Events

The Lowy Institute hosted one of Australia’s most provocative public commentators, Professor Hugh White. Lowy Institute Senior Fellow Richard McGregor chaired a discussion on Professor White’s new book, How to Defend Australia. Over the past decade, Professor White has set the agenda of Australia’s China debate. This book will do the same for defence policy. Hugh White AO is Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University and author of The China Choice and the Quarterly Essay 39, Power Shift. He has served as an intelligence analyst with the Office of National Assessments, as a senior adviser to Defence Minister Kim Beazley and to Prime Minister Bob Hawke, and as a senior official in the Department of Defence, where from 1995 to 2000 he was Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence. Richard McGregor, Lowy Institute Senior Fellow, is a leading expert on China’s political system and Australia’s relations with Asia. He is the author of The Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers and Asia’s Reckoning: China, Japan and the Fate of US Power in the Pacific Century. His Lowy Institute Paper, Xi Jinping: The Backlash, will be published in late July.

One year after the corruption-tainted government of Najib Razak was ousted in a stunning electoral upset, sentiment in Malaysia has turned from elation to frustration. The motley coalition led by Mahathir Mohamad, the 93-year-old former and now new prime minister, has been weighed down by in-fighting. There are growing fears that he is backsliding on promises to roll back draconian laws and reinvigorate the sluggish economy. Is Mahathir really a changed man? Will his government be subsumed by internal battles? And how will he manage growing US–China rivalry and simmering tensions with neighbouring Singapore? Two leading experts on Malaysian politics, Professor James Chin and Dr Vilashini Somiah, and the Director of the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia Project, Ben Bland, discussed these pressing questions and more. Professor James Chin is Director of the Asia Institute at the University of Tasmania. He is a leading commentator on Malaysian politics and has published extensively on Malaysia and the surrounding region. He is the author of a recent Lowy Institute paper, New Malaysia: Four Key Challenges in the Near Term. He has written and edited several books on Southeast Asian politics including Malaysia Post-Mahathir: A Decade of Change?. Dr Vilashini Somiah is the Head of Research at Iman, a think-tank in Kuala Lumpur that focuses on community engagement. It is known for its research on preventing violent extremism, socio-religious trends and public perceptions. Vila has a PhD in Southeast Asian Studies from the National University of Singapore. Her academic work focused on irregular cross-border migrants on the island of Borneo and their struggle against state power. This event was part of the ASEAN–Australia Visiting Fellows Program at the Lowy Institute, which is supported by the Australian Government through the Australia–ASEAN Council of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

The Indian general election is the world’s biggest exercise in democracy, with 900 million eligible voters. The election has been held in seven phases since 11 April, and results were declared on 23 May. Prime Minister and leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party Narendra Modi has been elected for a second term. India’s foreign policy under Prime Minister Modi has divided analysts. Some believe India’s foreign policy has undergone a remarkable transformation, others argue Modi has merely repackaged the policies of his predecessors. Under Modi, the quad alliance with Japan, Australia and the United States has been resuscitated, although he has pursued a ‘neighbourhood first’ focus in foreign policy. On the border with Pakistan, tensions have escalated to the level of nuclear threat. Bilateral relations with China are a balancing act. Professor Harsh V Pant, Director of Studies and Head of the Strategic Studies Programme at New Delhi’s Observer Research Foundation, gave an address on the future of India’s foreign policy in the wake of Prime Minister Modi’s re-election. Professor Harsh V Pant is an influential and prolific foreign, defence and strategic policy writer and thinker. His latest book, Indian Foreign Policy: The Modi Era, was launched in April 2019 by India’s former Foreign Secretary, Dr S Jaishankar. Professor Pant visited as a guest of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade as part of its Canberra Fellowships Program.

The Lowy Institute was pleased to host the Hon Kevin Rudd for a discussion on Xi Jinping’s China and the new era of strategic competition with the United States across trade, technology, and geopolitics. Mr Rudd served as Australia’s prime minister and foreign minister, lived in China as a diplomat, has studied the country’s history, politics, and language over many years, and has dealt with the leaders of the ruling Communist Party at the most senior levels. Mr Rudd, who now leads the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York, had a conversation with Richard McGregor, Lowy Institute’s Senior Fellow for East Asia. They were also joined by Chris Johnson, senior adviser and Freeman Chair of China Studies at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Mr Johnson previously served as a CIA analyst for China. This event was presented in partnership with the Asia Society.

Since September 11, Australia has enacted over 80 counterterrorism and national security laws. The laws are often controversial although usually passed quickly through Parliament. The Independent National Security Legislation Monitor (INSLM) reports on whether such laws are necessary, proportionate to the threats that caused them to be enacted, and comply with human rights standards and international law obligations. The role has been described as “an important and valued component of Australia’s national security architecture”. Lowy Institute Research Fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan had a conversation with the current Monitor, Dr James Renwick SC, where they discussed the role of the INSLM and two laws under his review: the so-called ‘encryption laws’ that allow security agencies to access encrypted messages; and the laws that lead to automatic loss of citizenship by dual citizens who engage in acts of terrorism. Dr James Renwick SC is a member of the NSW Bar with a general commercial and public law practice, and particular interests in appellate, disciplinary, national security and inquiry work. He is an Adjunct Professor of Law at the Australian National University and since 2017 has been the Independent National Security Legislation Monitor.

When Vladimir Putin was re-elected as Russian president in 2018, his position as the dominant personality of the post-Soviet era was enshrined. In his 15 years as president over two terms, he has established himself as the strongman of a resurgent great power. He has been unrelenting in the pursuit of core goals: the consolidation of political authority at home; and the promotion of Russia as an indispensable power. Eminent Russian journalist Yevgenia Albats had a conversation with the Director of the Lowy Institute’s Asian Power and Diplomacy Program, Hervé Lemahieu, about Russian politics and what it means for the rest of the world. Yevgenia Albats is a Russian investigative journalist, political scientist, author and radio host. She is Editor-in-Chief and CEO of The New Times, a Moscow-based, Russian language independent political weekly. She is also the host of Absolute Albats, a talk show on Echo Moskvy, the only remaining liberal radio station in Russia. She was an Alfred Friendly Press Fellow assigned to the Chicago Tribune in 1990, and a Nieman Fellow at Harvard University in 1993. She graduated from Moscow State University in 1980 and received her PhD in Political Science from Harvard University in 2004. Dr Albats visited Australia with the support of the University of Melbourne.

The foreign policy of Sir Robert Menzies, Australia’s longest-serving Prime Minister, has often been judged as beholden to Britain and the United States. Under Menzies, however, Australia took some steps towards a more independent role for Australia in foreign policy. Key initiatives include the signing of the ANZUS Treaty, the Colombo Plan and the Australia–Japan Commerce Agreement. Troy Bramston’s latest biography, Robert Menzies: The Art of Politics, reveals a wealth of new information about the Menzies years, including his role in the Suez crisis. Lowy Institute Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove had a conversation with Troy Bramston, where they explored Menzies’ foreign policy successes and missteps and the lessons they may yield for Australian foreign policy in the future. Troy Bramston is a senior writer and columnist with The Australian and is the author or editor of nine books on Australian politics and political biography. His new biography, Robert Menzies: The Art of Politics, was published in April 2019.

In Remaking the Middle East, Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow Anthony Bubalo argued that despite continuing turmoil in the region the future of the Middle East was not inevitably bleak. Amid the ferment the region has experienced over the past decade and a half he also pointed to ‘green shoots’ of change: from new forms of ‘uncivil’ society driving social and political change to ‘impious’ politics, making societies more tolerant and pluralist. But one year on, are these green shoots maturing into more sturdy features of the region? Or are they being killed and uprooted by the region’s revived authoritarianism? Lowy Institute Research Fellow Lydia Khalil discussed these and other questions with the author. Anthony Bubalo is a Principal at Nous Group, a Nonresident Fellow of the Lowy Institute, and a commentator on Middle Eastern politics and global affairs. Lydia Khalil is a Research Fellow in the West Asia Program at the Lowy Institute and Director of Arcana Partners, a political and security consulting firm. She is a specialist in Middle Eastern politics and terrorism and has published widely on her areas of expertise.

Through the course of Xi Jinping’s presidency, China has been working to shape an alternative version of the internet – one in which the party state asserts its cyber sovereignty through an extensive censorship apparatus. Many foreign news sources are blocked at the border, and sensitive topics are censored. At a time when open societies are grappling with how to manage the downsides of a free internet such as hate speech and extremist material, other nations are embracing China’s restrictive practices. Hong Kong-based CNN International technology reporter and author of The Great Firewall of China James Griffiths, New York Times reporter Vicky Xiuzhong Xu, Lowy Institute Research Fellow and former Beijing-based diplomat Natasha Kassam, had a discussion with Lowy Institute Research Fellow Kelsey Munro, to explore the history, politics and reality of online censorship in China, and the consequences of an authoritarian internet for the rest of the world.

China’s economic future is more uncertain than ever. Challenges have mounted on multiple fronts, including slowing growth, rising financial risks, and increasingly difficult external relations, not least with the United States. Lowy Institute International Economy Program Director Roland Rajah hosted a conversation with one of the world’s foremost experts on the Chinese economy, Dr Nicholas Lardy of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Dr Lardy will present the findings from his latest book, arguing that China’s future growth prospects could remain as bright as they were in the past, but are overshadowed by the spectre of resurgent state dominance.

More than a decade since the global financial crisis, economic thinking has continued to evolve, shaped by the harsh realities of recent experience. With global economic governance also under pressure and potentially fraying, the kind of cooperation needed to contain potential crises and sustain global economic prosperity is vastly more difficult and uncertain. What are the key lessons from the 2008 crisis and what does this mean for managing future economic crises? Lowy Institute International Economy Program Director Roland Rajah and Professor Maurice Obstfeld, former Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund and Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, discussed the latest economic thinking on the future of the global economy and where policymaking is headed.

After a coup, a new constitution and a controversial election, Thailand’s political future remains as uncertain as ever. The general election in March, the first since the 2014 coup, was marred by allegations of irregularities and the election commission will not announce the final results until May. In the meantime, the commission has brought sedition charges against the leader of a pro-democracy party that did better than expected in the election. Thailand is stuck in a protracted seesaw between democracy and military rule. How will the final election results affect this balance? What role, if any, will King Vajiralongkorn play in determining Thailand’s future trajectory after his coronation in May? And how will the political impasse impact Thailand’s chairmanship of ASEAN this year? Leading Thai political scientist Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak and Director of Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia Project Ben Bland had a discussion on what happens next in one of Southeast Asia’s most volatile nations. Thitinan Pongsudhirak is Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies and Associate Professor of International Political Economy at the Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok. Thitinan’s visit to Australia is part of the ASEAN–Australia Visiting Fellows Program at the Lowy Institute, which is supported by the Australian Government through the Australia–ASEAN Council of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. This event was presented by the Lowy Institute at the NGV

The attacks on Al Noor and Linwood Mosques in Christchurch, in which 50 people lost their lives, represent the deadliest mass killing in New Zealand’s modern history and the worst terrorist attacks ever carried out by an Australian. The events of 15 March have already prompted large-scale gun reform in New Zealand as well as a Royal Commission into the attacks. More broadly, the attacks have prompted reflection on violent extremism in all its forms – including the kind perpetrated by the far right – and on the nature of far-right extremism as a global movement. The Lowy Institute hosted a panel discussion which looked at what changes are required at the policy and law enforcement levels to reduce the risk of extremist attacks; whether the Christchurch attack is linked to other far-right and white supremacist movements around the world; the nature of reciprocal extremism and how jihadism and far-right extremism may amplify each other; how online environments contribute to radicalisation; and how the Australian far right fits into the global picture. The panel featured: Professor Michele Grossman, Research Chair in Diversity and Community Resilience, Alfred Deakin Institute Dr Kristy Campion, Lecturer in Terrorism Studies, Charles Sturt University Dr David Smith, Senior Lecturer in American Politics and Foreign Policy, United States Studies Centre Lydia Khalil, Lowy Institute Research Fellow, Director of political and security consulting firm Arcana Partners, and specialist in Middle Eastern politics and terrorism (moderator)

Since the start of the Syrian civil war, up to 200 Australians have travelled to Syria and Iraq to fight with jihadist groups, and dozens more have been charged with terrorism offences in Australia. The legal process against jihadists in Australia and those returning from overseas will continue for years to come. Foreign fighters claim that they simply provided humanitarian assistance or did not fight, and domestic terrorists often blame mental health issues for their acts. Yet little is known publicly about their true motivations, how they organised themselves, what role mental health has really played in their actions, how contrite they have been, and how likely they are to be rehabilitated. Research Fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan has written widely on foreign fighters and has been an expert witness in more than two dozen terrorism cases in Australia. He attempted to shed light on the often darkened world of the Australian jihadist, using their own words and those of the courts to try to explain the motivations and worldview of Australian terrorists.

The Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, Senator Penny Wong, addressed the Lowy Institute on what a Labor Government would mean for Australia’s international engagement. How does Labor see Australia’s place in the world? What would be the priorities for a Labor Government? After her address, Senator Wong joined Lowy Institute Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove in conversation. Senator Penny Wong, Leader of the Opposition in the Senate, was first elected in 2001. She held several ministerial positions between 2007 and 2013, including Minister for Climate Change and Water and Minister for Finance and Deregulation. Since 2016 Senator Wong has been Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs. Dr Michael Fullilove is Executive Director of the Lowy Institute and a leading expert on Australian and US foreign policy. He is the author of Rendezvous with Destiny: How Franklin D Roosevelt and Five Extraordinary Men Took America into the War and the World.