Asymcar

We consider the landscape that Apple's purported Titan project will address in a few years time. Horace discusses the pattern of disruption powered by Moore's law. We turn to the transportation sector and consider the "reimagining" of the car. We further consider scenarios, from sustaining where the current players grow, to new entrant opportunities. The conversation diverts a bit into the regulatory and taxation regime, specifically the fact that US road funding is largely tied to fuel taxes. We note the odd situation where an entry level car driver pays fuel taxes while a luxury Tesla driver does not. We speculate on Apple's possible "meaningful contribution" to transportation and the required product, customer experience, sales channel, price and financing options. asymcar.com Asymcar River of News

We begin a speculative show in Berlin, where a cab driver laments “young people arriving in the city to party and sleep on couches”. Might Berlin’s youthful visitors in 2050 simply crash in their autonomous pods? Horace races forward and muses on a future filled with roving, autonomous Winnebagos. Jim notes that there have been previous attempts at such vehicles, particularly with 1960’s and 1970’s era vans. Big data and algorithms run interference. Will autonomous pod players be naturally limited to those who can create and maintain a global mapping system? Today, those organizations include Google, Apple and a consortium owned by Audi, BMW and Mercedes. TomTom supplies GIS data to many organizations and Uber has begun to collect mapping data as well. We close with a bit of Apple gazing. What might Apple’s first car look like? What is its job to be done? Will it be influenced by the VW Beetle? asymcar.com Asymcar River of News

Mathew Desmond joins us to discuss Cars Online 2015 - The Selfie Experience. The evolving power of the connected customer. We begin with the fascinating finding that "One-half of customers are interested in buying a car from a tech company like Apple or Google. This is true even of customers who are satisfied with their current brand and dealer experience. It is particularly true of young customers (65%) and those in growth markets (China: 74%; India: 81%)." Backing up a bit, we discuss the automaker's dilemma, that is the legacy manufacturing, distribution and support infrastructure and contrast that with the "clean slate" approach an entrant might enjoy. The concept and inherent conflicts of a "Master Customer Record" fuels a deeper dive into "Continuity", the buyer's desire for a seamless experience. Finally, we reflect on the perils that may lie ahead as the auto ecosystem attempts to improve the retail experience. asymcar.com Asymcar River of News

We revisit “Antennagate”. Should organizations hire people with industry skills and experience or capable, driven outsiders? Horace shares tales from Henry Ford’s personnel practices during the Model T to Model A transition. The conversation accelerates into a discussion of aesthetics and jobs to be done. We muse on Tesla’s development, supply chain, aesthetics and market position while contrasting that with Toyota’s introduction of the Prius. We close with speculation on what a “meaningful contribution” to the auto ecosystem might look like.

Horace and Jim talk with Matthew Gunson, Director of Brand Management at Phoenix based Local Motors. We learn about Local’s business model, their view of automotive jobs to be done and the 3D printing driven micro factory. Automotive nostalgia and a detour into consumer behavior closes our conversation.

From the moment an idea is worth having no one cares what it costs - Andre Citroen The incomparable Citroen DS (French homophone: déesse), 60 years old this year. Hydropneumatic, self-levelling suspension aerodynamic and interior design efficiency, swiveling headlights, novel construction methods. Ahead of its time even in 1985. Why did this iconic design not endure?

Gartner asserts that "connected cars or smart cars are poised to play a pivotal role in the Internet of Things (IoT)". We say "Hah!" Also How levies platform taxes. What in the world could "over serving" transportation mean? Using an Automatic App in a Porsche. BMW Sounding the Alarm over tech companies efforts to collect auto data China's car industry and other unimportant details relative to declining interest in driving among young people.

We consider Uber’s street smarts, “cash on the hood” driver acquisition tactics and their ability to operate over the top, that is above local regulations and norms. The proposed elimination of diesel cars in Paris and London ignites a side trip through today's regulatory labyrinth. Horace reflects on a recent Tesla test drive while evaluating innovation on jobs to be done, form factor design, production methods and their business model. Jim considers Sandy Munro's recent BMW i3 teardown, which lead him to conclude that "this car makes money". Might BMW have leaped ahead of Tesla while pumping out 500,000 traditional 3 series this year? We close with news that Porsche has once again rejected an "entry level" sports car project. This, despite their growing SUV and large car portfolio.

What motivates a company to destroy its brand? We start with Mini’s plans to sell 100,000 cars in the States by 2020, nearly double today’s pace and remember how Cadillac destroyed their brand and how Mercedes, Porsche, Ferrari et. al. can’t wait to do the same. Also, might retail power in the form of strong dealer regulation limit brand’s ability to improve or address customer experiences? What motivated Warren Buffet to enter the American car dealer business? (With a long aside on what Buffett investment logic is all about and why it’s not contradictory to a growth investor). We detour a bit into the information battle to come and how car makers yearn to be the masters of their own cars.

Why did the Tata Nano fail? What is the future of low end disruption in the auto industry? What does sharing mean for cars? What are the jobs that spaces in cars are hired for that their makers don’t understand? Is Elon Musk an Industrialist?

Part I is a review of the “automotive stack” and note how there is no singular event that seems to affect disruptive change. From changing jobs to be done, modular design and manufacturing processes, powertrain evolution, urbanization, environmental interests, regulation and taxation. Part II is a review of a framework of analysis based on sources and uses of energy. Inputs, efficiency/losses, network effects and inertia, what can change and what can’t change. For a shot of theory, Horace reflects on the dichotomy of efficiency vs. efficacy when it comes to predicting change in the sector.

Steve Crandall joins us to discuss hydrogen fuel cells vs. lithium batteries. The two alternatives to post-internal-combustion motoring are far harder to assess than it might seem. Both require systems analysis and the systems themselves need to be weighed against the incumbent infrastructure and jobs to be done. We begin with Toyota’s fuel cell sedan announcement and recall Honda’s Clarity. The conversation leads to the observation that technical merit is not always sufficient or even necessary to market adoption success. We note that Toyota supported the Prius through years of low volume. Steve compares this to ATT's abandonment of a cell service in the 1990′s. Steve compares the energy performance of hydrogen and gasoline and shares a look at the economic conditions necessary for a successful hydrogen fuel cell launch.

Matt Grantham joins us to discuss electric vehicles, renewable energy, smarter software, solar opportunities and economics. Matt introduces us to Solar X, the solar car challenge. He reflects on these emerging technologies in light of Australia’s nearly extinct auto manufacturing sector. We explore the concept of a car as the home power source and consider possible EV disruption of traditional power generation and distribution concerns. The potential business models arising from these emerging technologies makes us pause in light of solar firm’s stock performance.

Ossi Oikarinen, Horace and Jim dive into the culture, interests, rules, technology and organization of Formula 1 and DTM racing. We explore the driver's role in an increasingly technology driven competition while comparing Germany's DTM series with America's NASCAR. We consider racing's future in light of the replacement of the broadcast TV model with pay per view.

On continental road trips, joys of rear wheel drive, diesel engines and autobahn speeds, pilgrimage to Porsche and BMW’s brand meccas. How to understand the world through toy cars, from Matchbox to Hot Wheels, Siku, Majorette to Tomica. Jim returns to the business of car distribution with an Alfred Sloan quote: “Between 1923–29 the leveling of demand for new cars logically resulted in a change of emphasis in the industry from production to distribution. On the sales end that meant a change from easy selling to hard selling. Dealer problems of an entirely new nature began to arise.” We consider car dealer data and discuss the “channel stuffing” origins of state franchise regulation. Horace reminds us that the current auto industry is constructed around production and distribution. We close by reflecting on Apple’s routing around now defunct computer retail channels via its highly successful stores, just 13 years ago.