Market to Market - Market Analysis

Even with news of record large South American crops and what traders were generally calling a nothing much WASDE report the grain markets finished in positive territory. For the week, March wheat gained 19 cents and the nearby corn contract road wheat’s coattails 9 cents higher. March soybeans fell following the report but managed to recover rising 32 cents for the week. March meal added $10.50 per ton. In the softs, March cotton gave back 59 cents per hundred weight. Over in the dairy parlor, March Class III milk futures fell 26 cents.

At the beginning of the week, the Cattle on Feed report pulled markets lower. However, fund buying gave the trade a bump up by the final session. For the week, March wheat gained a dime and the nearby corn contract moved sideways. Despite market bulls pushing back, the March soybean contract fell 23 cents. March meal dropped $11.40 per ton. In the softs, March cotton added $1.56 per hundred weight. Over in the dairy parlor, February Class III milk futures gained 21 cents. The livestock sector was mixed as the April cattle contract fell $1.71. March feeders shed $3.88.

Concern over the future of U.S. grain exports and South American weather plagued the commodity markets. For the week, March wheat lost 8 cents and the nearby corn contract moved 7 cents lower. Despite weekly export sales being in line with expectations, Trump Administration policies on China helped squeeze 18 cents out of the March soybean contract. March meal cut $5.70 per ton. In the softs, March cotton added $2.16 per hundred weight. Over in the dairy parlor, February Class III milk futures lost 31 cents. The livestock sector took it on the chin as the April cattle contract fell $1.64.

Exports to destinations unknown and potentially over bought markets saw the grain trade test post-harvest highs. For the week, March wheat gained 2 cents and the nearby corn contract moved 11 cents higher. Wet South American weather clashed with an overbought market to push the soy complex higher as the March contract ended up 21 cents. March meal put on $14.80 per ton. In the softs, March cotton added 42 cents per hundred weight. Over in the dairy parlor, February Class III milk futures were up 35 cents. The livestock sector was mixed as the April cattle contract gained 44 cents.

This week’s USDA report sent the market in motion on Thursday as the government said the second fewest acres of hard red wheat were planted since 1909. For the week, March wheat improved 3 cents and the nearby corn contract was unchanged. The USDA report boosted the soy complex by nearly 30 cents on Thursday. For the week, the March contract jumped 52 cents. March meal shot up 7 percent or $22.60 per ton. In the softs, March cotton lowered $1.72 per hundred weight. Over in the dairy parlor, February Class III milk futures declined 36 cents.

A surprising rally in the Chinese Yuan coupled with South American weather concerns fueled the markets. For the week, March wheat again improved 15 cents and took the nearby corn contract for the ride for a 6 cent gain. South American weather concerns waned by the week’s end and the March soybean contract gave back 9 cents. March meal declined $5.30 per ton. In the softs, March cotton expanded $3.34 per hundred weight. Over in the dairy parlor, January Class III milk futures improved 14 cents. An across the board sell-off in the livestock sector as the February cattle contract shed $1.22.

Weather was the big story this week with wetter conditions in South America and a dry, cold forecast in the Great Plains. For the week, March wheat improved 15 cents and the nearby corn contract added 6 cents.  A big rally Tuesday was mostly erased in the days after as rainy conditions in Argentina may have been overstated. The soybean complex’s March contract finished 7 cents higher. March meal followed suit adding $5 per ton. In the softs, March cotton swelled by 78 cents per hundred weight. Over in the dairy parlor, January Class III milk futures declined 18 cents.

South American weather, once again, worked at cross purposes with healthy exports and left the grain markets lower just before the Holiday. For the week, March wheat fell 16 cents and the nearby corn contract dropped 11 cents. News of a record crop in Brazil and more good weather in Argentina continued to hold the soybean complex at bay as the January contract finished 49 cents lower. January meal was carried along by the news and lost $9.80 per ton. In the softs, March cotton shook off $1.17 per hundred weight. Over in the dairy parlor, January Class III milk futures poured off 31 cents.

Even as exports put in good numbers, a higher dollar, private acreage reports, and weaker currency rates in other ports- of-call left the grain markets mixed. For the week, March wheat added a nickel and the nearby corn contract moved 9 cents higher. Hot weather in Argentina and a higher soybean acreage estimates made for a volatile week in the soy complex as the January soybean contract finished 2 cents lower. January meal lost $1.50 per ton. In the softs, March cotton gained back last week’s loss to the penny. Over in the dairy parlor, January Class III milk futures gained 3 cents.

Despite profit taking, good weather and a bearish stocks report the commodity markets finished mostly higher by the final session. For the week, March wheat rose 12 cents and the nearby corn contract moved 12 and quarter cents higher. A 25 cent gain in the soy complex was undone by South American weather and the WASDE report revealing higher global stocks. However, the January soybean contract managed to finish a dime higher for the week. January meal stayed with the trend adding $6.30 per ton. In the softs, March cotton lost 24 cents per hundredweight.

The week started off with the grain markets moving lower. Attempts to break higher appear to have been squashed by prices in foreign markets and USDA reports. For the week, March wheat lost 15 cents and the nearby corn contract declined 11 cents. Fund selling, a large carryout and good planting weather in South America deflated the soy complex. The January soybean contract lost 19 cents. January Meal was snagged by the undercurrent and was dragged $10.60 per ton lower. In the softs, March cotton gave back 21 cents per hundredweight.

Two bearish factors kept the grain trade in check this week as the dollar hit its highest mark in more than seven months and harvest pressure kept resistance on the top side even with some bullish export news. For the week, December wheat declined 7 cents and the nearby corn contract moved 2 cents lower. A surging real coupled with strong export demand pushed beans to four week highs as the November contract finished the week 21 cents higher. December meal went along for the ride adding $5.90 per ton.

The trade appeared to have already factored-in the mid-week supply and demand report.  However, fund short covering, end user demand and spillover from the wheat market all served to move the commodity markets higher.  For the week, December wheat gained 27 cents and the nearby corn contract moved 15 cents higher. Soybeans followed wheat and corn as the November contract rose a tepid 6 cents. December meal tagged along gaining 40 cents per ton.

A more expensive dollar, an increase in the size of the South American crop and good export numbers left the market mixed. For the week, December wheat was off 7 cents and the nearby corn contract finished flat for the third consecutive week. News of a record large Brazilian soybean crop was balanced against positive export numbers as the November soybean contract rose 3 cents. December meal gained 60 cents per ton. In the softs, December cotton lost $1.10 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, November Class III milk futures fell 18 cents.

Friday's Quarterly Grain Stocks Report from USDA did little to move the market as harvest began in earnest around the Grain Belt. For the week, December wheat was off 3 cents and the nearby corn contract finished flat for the second consecutive week. Bountiful harvest kept a lid on good export news as soybean prices finished a penny lower. October meal dropped $5.40 per ton. In the softs, December cotton shed nearly $2 per hundredweight. Over in the dairy parlor, October Class III milk futures soured by 42 cents.