Market to Market - Market Analysis

A lagging export market and weather fluctuations kept market swings in check. For the week, March wheat improved four cents, while the nearby corn contract gained four cents. A reduction in biodiesel mandates from the EPA stifled the soy complex as the January soybean contract added a penny. January meal increased $4.30 per ton. March cotton expanded $1.35 per hundred weight. Over in the dairy parlor, December Class III milk futures soured 12 cents. The livestock complex was mixed as the February cattle contract declined $2.60 and nearby feeders weakened $2.97.

The commodity markets had a volatile week as dryer weather in Brazil, above average export numbers and rainy conditions in the Grain Belt gave the market something to chew. For the week, December wheat lost a nickel while the nearby corn contract fell five cents. Rainfall below expectations in Brazil and increased Chinese demand made for an 18 cent swing as the November soybean contract put 4 cents back on the board by week’s end. December meal added $3.40 per ton. December cotton grew 39 cents. Over in the dairy parlor, November Class III milk futures increased 36 cents.

The commodity markets spent the week mixed, in some cases, treading water before the Quarterly Stocks report. The last few hours of the week’s final session were volatile. For the week, December wheat lost a penny while the nearby corn contract gained two cents. Soybeans trended lower on cheaper product from South America only to rally after the report. Despite the move, the November contract fell 16 cents. December meal fell $3.20 per ton. Cotton swung nearly $1 to end the week down only a penny per hundred weight. Over in the dairy parlor, October Class III milk futures added 12 cents.

This week the Fed said recent hurricanes are not expected to have long lasting economic effects. All this spelled a mixed bag for commodities. For the week, December wheat improved half a cent while the nearby corn contract lost a penny. The soy complex continued an upward trend, pushing through recent highs, as the November soybean contract gained 18 cents. December meal added $7.60 per ton. Despite hurricane losses, a glut in the cotton market continues as the December contract shed 61 cents. Over in the dairy parlor, October Class III milk futures ticked up 35 cents.

Hello, I'm Mike Pearson. Keeping with our tradition of breaking down USDA's harvest forecasts and ending stocks we have convened a select panel of our regular market analysts. But before we drill down a bit deeper, let's take a look at how the markets wrapped up. For the week, December wheat posted an 11 cent gain while the nearby corn contract lost 2 cents. Ongoing dry weather in Brazil helped soybeans sidestep a post-report dip as the November contract moved 7 cents higher. December meal tested two year lows this week but did an about face surging $6.20 per ton.

Weather, increased exports and a weaker dollar made for a volatile week in the grain markets. For the week, the December wheat and corn contracts fought a major battle over pennies only to finish flat. A combination of the dollar at a three-year low and increased exports to China helped push the November soybean contract 13 cents higher. December meal gained $6.40 per ton. Hurricane Irma’s imminent threat added $2.71 to the December cotton contract. Over in the dairy parlor, October Class III milk futures declined 32 cents.

Political positioning and wet weather across the Grain Belt went up against hot and dry conditions making for volatile grain markets. For the week, the September wheat contract fell 26 cents and the nearby corn contract moved 8 cents lower. Rain had more influence on soybean prices than potential Chinese trade retaliation or striking Brazilian truck drivers as the September contract plummeted 54 cents. December meal took it on the chin falling $13.90 per ton. In the softs, December cotton gained $1.82 per hundred weight.

Weather and creeping drought made for volatile grain markets while official reports and foreign market tariffs dogged the livestock market. For the week, the nearby wheat contract fell 18 cents and the nearby corn contract moved 6 cents lower. Exchange rates for the Real coupled with swinging weather forecasts pulled the September Soybean contract down 8 cents. December meal fell a whopping $13.50 per ton. In the softs, December cotton grew 38 cents per hundred weight. Over in the dairy parlor, August Class III milk futures gained 43 cents.

Pearson:  Here now to lend us her insight on these and other trends is one of our regular market analysts Elaine Kub.  Elaine, welcome back. Kub:  Always a pleasure.  

Hot and dry forecasts sent the market dramatically up the hill early in the week, but an end of the week sell-off brought on by favorable rain and temperatures allowed gravity to take over and the commodity markets moved lower. For the week, the nearby wheat contract gave back 24 cents and the nearby corn contract dropped 4 percent or 16 cents. Soybean losses were less severe as the August contract was down 12 cents. August meal weakened $7 per ton. In the softs, December cotton fell $2.01 per hundred weight. Over in the dairy parlor, August Class III milk futures added 18 cents.

Confirmation of a weather-impacted wheat crop coupled with concerns of an unfavorable forecast for pollination pushed the commodities higher. For the week the nearby wheat contract had its highest finish in almost 2 years as the September contract gained 9 cents and the nearby corn contract flirted with $4, up 12 cents. Soybeans also moved on weather as the August soybean contract broke through $10, up another 54 cents this week. August meal added a whopping $26.30 per ton. In the softs, December cotton was even. Over in the dairy parlor, August Class III milk futures declined a dime.

The commodity markets have suffered weeks of weather doldrums, shouldered foreign bumper crops and endured manic South American politics. The market laid down its burdens on the last session of the week as the commodity markets feasted on USDA’s acreage and quarterly grain stocks reports. For the week, September wheat rocketed 11 percent higher, gaining 53 cents and the nearby corn contract put on 16 cents. The data sent the bulls charging down LaSalle Street as the August soybean contract soared 39 cents. August meal rose $9.30 per ton.

Rain and cooler temperatures took away consternation over weather and increased competition from South America hammered much of the commodity market. For the week, September wheat fell 8 cents and the nearby corn contract plummeted 27 cents. Technical selling coupled with rain fed the bears again in the soy complex as the July contract tumbled 35 cents. July meal dropped $7.30 per ton. In the softs, December cotton compacted $2.34 per hundred weight. Over in the dairy parlor, July Class III milk futures soured 39 cents.

Dockworker strikes in South America and official long-term weather guesses made for mixed results in the commodity markets. For the week, July wheat gained 20 cents and, after several volatile sessions, the nearby corn contract lost 4 cents. Bears trampled last week’s gains in the soy complex as the July contract clawed its way back to close 3 cents lower. July meal dropped $5 per ton. December cotton compressed $3.13 per hundred weight. Over in the dairy parlor, July Class III milk futures spilled 17 cents.

The expectation of lower year-over-year ending stocks and an early arrival of the dog days of summer made for higher commodity markets even before Friday’s midday release of the June WASDE report. For the week, July wheat gained 16 cents and the nearby corn contract, rose 15 cents. Sales to unknown destinations fueled the fire as the July soybean contract gained 20 cents. July meal added $4 per ton. In the softs, July cotton continued to shrink falling $1.00 per hundred weight. Over in the dairy parlor, June Class III milk futures lost 24 cents.