Summary: Humans can easily distinguish between a zero-chance event (e.g., the Washington Nationals winning the World Series in 2022) and a sure thing (e.g., the sun coming up tomorrow). But in between those two clear outcomes, it turns out that we’re not great at estimating odds. In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, a bias that affects the way we predict the likelihood of rare events.
