COVID-19’s Short-term Impacts on Economies, Food Systems and Poverty in African and Asian Countries

Summary: Virtual Event - COVID-19’s Short-term Impacts on Economies, Food Systems and Poverty in African and Asian Countries: Economywide Estimates from Economywide Models Co-Organized by IFPRI and the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) This seminar was recorded on August 11, 2020. Developing countries responded to COVID-19 by implementing social distancing measures and limiting non-essential business operations. Agrifood systems and food supplies—although generally exempt from restrictions—have been exposed to policy disruptions and global market instability. To measure the impacts of COVID-19 on economies and food systems, IFPRI researchers worked alongside partners in several African and Asian countries to conduct economywide multiplier analysis, tracing direct and indirect spillover effects along and across supply chains. Results reveal substantial but varying levels of GDP losses during lockdowns, depending on policy design and implementation and countries’ exposure to global markets. Despite policy exemptions, impacts on food systems account for about one quarter of GDP losses on average. Income losses are felt by all segments of the population. Negative impacts persist, but gradually weaken as restrictive measures are lifted. Our results call for targeted social protection interventions in the short term, balanced with longer-term planning and investing in the economic recovery. This IFPRI-PIM seminar presented the modeling approach and results from three case studies—Nigeria, Myanmar, and Sudan. Presenters highlighted how differences in policy design, implementation, and economic structure affect the experience with COVID-19, specifically for food systems and poverty, in these countries. Opening Remarks: Frank Place, Director, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) Presenters: Kwaw Andam, Research Fellow, IFPRI Xinshen Diao, Deputy Division Director, Development Strategy and Governance Division, IFPRI Karl Pauw, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI Mariam Raouf, Senior Research Associate, IFPRI Discussant: Chris Hillbruner, Division Chief, Analysis and Learning Division, Office of Policy, Analysis, and Engagement; Bureau for Resilience and Food Security; United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Paul Dorosh, Director, Development Strategy and Governance Division, IFPRI Closing Remarks: John McDermott, Director, CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH) Moderator: Katarlah Taylor, Events Manager, IFPRI LINKS: Book: COVID-19 And Global Food Security: https://www.ifpri.org/interactive/covid Websites: IFPRI Resources And Analyses Of COVID-19 Impact: https://www.ifpri.org/covid-19 CGIAR Research Program On Policies, Institutions, And Markets (PIM): http://pim.cgiar.org/ Book: COVID-19 and Global Food Security: https://www.ifpri.org/publication/covid-19-and-global-food-security More on the seminar: https://www.ifpri.org/event/virtual-event-covid-19s-short-term-impacts-economies-food-systems-and-poverty-african-and Subscribe IFPRI Insights newsletter and event annoucements at www.ifpri.org/content/newsletter-subscription