Economic Take

The latest economic updates suggest the Fed won’t be cutting rates any time soon—January GDP showed a big increase, car sales soared, jobless claims plunged and payrolls bounced back. These all suggest the US economy is reaching cruising altitude, and the Fed’s goal now will likely be to avoid overstimulation as the expansion continues.

Based on news reports, some people have the impression that the economy lost momentum this winter—but would that be such a bad thing? In this episode, we talk economic cruising altitude, jobless claims and the future of growth as we head into the second quarter of the year.

During the recession, the Federal Reserve bought a lot of securities—a process known as quantitative easing, or QE. The plan was then to unwind all of those excess reserves back to pre-recession levels, a process known as QT, or quantitative tightening. But now, the Fed appears to be rethinking its balance sheet strategy.

Now that the US economy has reached full employment, many people are worried that we’re headed for a recession—in the past, the economy didn’t stay at full employment for more than a year or two before entering another downturn. But is the business cycle really that predictable?

The public holds more than $16 trillion of federal debt—78 percent of GDP—and many people are baffled that it gets so little attention in market discussions. In this episode, we explore whether the deficit matters, if it will drive interest rates up and whether the fiscal picture has the potential to choke the economy. Get more Insights from JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking  

JP Morgan Chase Commercial Banking is proud to introduce Economic Take. In this weekly podcast, join Commercial Banking’s Head Economist as we help listeners cut through the noise to understand exactly what’s going on in the economy today—and the impact it could have on your business. Get more Insights from JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking