Stats Insider Podcast

Stats Insider's Darryl Woodford is joined by Woot & Wye to discuss betting on the Super Bowl LIII, before the two lads talk stats and prop bets for the big game. #TrustTheModel

Barring wildcard weekend, the 2018 postseason has gone completely chalk with the four top seeds filling the final four spots of the season. This is the first time since 2015 that the NFL playoffs have featured the No. 1 Seed vs No. 2 Seed in both the AFC & NFC championship games. One more interesting wrinkle for this weekend is that both games are rematches of regular season fixtures that featured 80 or more points. In the Conference Championship edition of The Punt Return Podcast, Darryl Data & Wye open the show recapping their average results in the divisional round. The Rams being the only team that they both won on. Kansas City helped Darryl and the model to a winning week while the Chargers & Colts let Wye down. Before going game by game with their picks, bets and DFS plays, the show mentions some interesting tidbits about this particular round of the playoffs, including: * The last time a team went to the Super Bowl that won a road playoff game at all was the 2012 season. Home teams in the conference championships are 10-0 over the past five seasons and 8-2 ATS. The last two were both the Ravens and 49ers in that 2012 season.  * It’s the first time since the merger that the league’s four highest-scoring teams are the last four remaining in the postseason.  * All 4 remaining head coaches have won the coach of the year award. The first game of championship Sunday will be held in the Superdome with the New Orleans Saints hosting the Los Angeles Rams. The SI Model likes the Rams here at the +3.5 point spread, with a considerable edge in favour of the Rams. Wye is on the same page but finds this game incredibly tough to play, stating:  _“The Week 9 matchup between these two teams went in favour of the Saints, that’s why this game is being held in New Orleans. These two teams are drastically different now with different injuries across the board but importantly the return of Aqib Talib. Talib should do a better job of containing Michael Thomas who exploited the Rams for 211 yards in their last meeting. Offensive lines will be the story of this game as the Rams dominance last week proving to the difference maker, if they can get things going on the ground it will allow Jared Goff to establish play action and also keep the Saints off the field. Aaron Donald’s matchup against an injured Andrus Peat will be pivotal, Brees' difference in performance when pressured as opposed to free of pressure is drastic (the third-greatest in the NFL). The Saints defense has dramatically improved since midseason but their offense has been in a bit of a lull and has resulted in a 1-5 against the spread record across their last six games. While I think the Saints win this game, going to 7-0 all time in Sean Payton home playoff games, I’m expecting a close one and the Rams to cover the 3.5 point spread.”_  The finale of Championship Sunday will be held in the elements at Arrowhead stadium with the Patriots facing the Chiefs on the road. The model has some small leans in this one but given the varying weather reports, it’ll be best to check this one on game day. Wye is firm in his belief that we’ll see the Patriots in yet another Super Bowl, labelling the Patriots as the bet of the weekend despite some worrying road trends:  _“The Patriots haven’t won a road playoff game since 2007, they’re 0-3 on those occasions with all three coming at the hands (or arm) of Peyton Manning. The Patriots do though, thrive as an underdog in recent years with a 7-1 straight up and against the spread record in their last eight games as a dog. The biggest storyline in this game will be the Patriots struggle on the road. They’ve lost 5 games non playoff teams and are averaging 12 fewer points per game on offense and allowing 6 more points on defense. The splits are quite phenomenal with Net Yards Per Play being 2nd at home and 26th away, Red Zone TD Scoring % is 6th at home & 26th away & opponents 3rd down conversion percentage is 3rd at home and 27th away. The Patriots defense ranks 2nd at home in DVOA defense and 31st on the road. So why the Patriots? Well Bill Belichick. He put on an absolute coaching clinic last week and should do the same here by slowing down Pat Mahomes. He is 6-2 all time against Andy Reid and found great success in their Week 7 matchup using 21 personnel. The Chiefs defense is the NFL’s worst defense against that formation and it’s the formation that gets the best out of Sony Michel on the ground and James White through the air.” _ This episode of the Punt Return includes the guys analysis of the DFS slate with Data Darryl giving you the Fantasy Insider Lineup Cruncher’s best value play. Want something extra? Listen to hear Wye giving out some random referee stats!

Wildcard Weekend saw the continuation of a golden run by underdogs in the playoffs (underdogs are now 14-1 against the spread since Atlanta choked/gave the Super Bowl away). Three road teams won last week with Dallas being the only favourite to win outright. This is the second straight season where underdogs have gone 4-0 against the spread in the wild card round. The Divisional round though presents a unique experience, in that half of the teams have had the bye, will get to play at home and typically against teams with a worse record. As bettors we have to be smart about what that means and how that will affect the outcome of these games. Darryl Data & Wye open the show recapping a terrific week of results. Wye went 4-0 against the spread in his selections and correctly picked Clemson winning the National Championship game while the model celebrated the Under 48.5 in the Indianapolis/Houston game and Eagles +6. Before going game by game with their picks and bets, the show mentions some key statistics about divisional weekend including: · Home teams are 24-35-1 against the spread in the divisional round since 2003 · Away teams are 13-27 straight up in the last 40 Divisional Playoff Matchups. · Favoured teams laying a touchdown or more are 46-38-3 against the spread in this round of the playoffs This episode of the Punt Return concludes with the guys discussing their favourite DFS plays for the weekend including Travis Kelce, Robert Woods & Nelson Agholor.

17: The Punt Return: Betting on the NFL - Wild Card Weekend (& CFB Championship)

Four edges across three games from the model in an Inside Edge pod that has everything from Billy Birmingham to Ron Burgundy. Four solid value plays across three games as Hedge and Ritchie guide punters through the weekend's Big Bash action. It was especially nice to see Hedge forced to grudgingly accept that P. Siddle can play a bit!

The [Stats Insider](statsinsider.com.au) boys are back to take a look into the betting markets for the next few days worth of Big Bash value! Hedge's disgust at some of the 'batting' thus far in the Big Bash continues with the big man producing a few massive sprays to superstar openers Ben Dunk and Joe Denly. he doesn't miss Callum Ferguson, Jon Wells and Josh Phillipe either (he is an angry, angry man). The Stats Insider model has adjusted to the chaos and started to really hit it's straps, going 3/4 in the last two games. All you need to know about the Hurricanes v Thunder game tonight oh and wait for it…the Melbourne Renegades have been installed as favourites to win BBL08 by the Stats Insider Simulator!! The boys will be back on Monday working hard to ensure you, the punters, get the best information before having a flutter on the Big Bash. Always gamble responsibly. Five days [FREE ACCESS to Stats Insider Premium](https://www.statsinsider.com.au/premium)? What have you got to lose?

The Stats Insider boys are back to take a look into the betting markets for the next few days worth of Big Bash value! Hedge isn't happy with the quality of batting so far (let's be honest, Hedge is just an angry man today) after the first two BBL matchups and is hoping to see some swashbuckling, bat on ball contact over the weekend, while Nick is still celebrating after a big night onDraftstars, coming in top 15\. Settle down son, it's one game. The model has gone three from four in the loss of first wicket plays (thanks Max Bryant for that one loss), so it might just be time for punters to #TrustTheModel. Data analyst extraordinaire, Ritchie gives us some brand new insight into what the Stats Insider data can tell us about Jackson Coleman's T20 bowling, when discussing whether the "Wild Thing" (you make my heart sing…) Lance Morris should get a game against the Thunder on Friday night on what is being called "an absolute road" of a pitch in the nation's capitol. If there's only 16 minutes of Big Bash podcast you listen to today, make it The Inside Edge! **2.15 [Sydney Thunder v Melbourne Stars](https://www.statsinsider.com.au/bbl/match?matchid=BBL_2018_1_STH_MST)** **12.53 [Sydney Sixers v Perth Scorchers](https://www.statsinsider.com.au/bbl/match?matchid=BBL_2018_1_SYS_PSC)** **14.40 [Brisbane Heat v Hobart Hurricanes](https://www.statsinsider.com.au/bbl/match?matchid=BBL_2018_1_BRH_HHU)** (check back at statsinsider.com.au for updates to match pages) The boys will be back on Monday - Christmas Eve - working hard to ensure you, the punters, get the best information before having a flutter on the Big Bash. Always gamble responsibly. **Five days [FREE ACCESS to Stats Insider Premium](statsinsider.com.au/premium)? What have you got to lose?**

16: The Punt Return: Betting on the NFL- Week 16

Welcome to the Inside Edge, the Podcast that makes betting on the Big Bash as easy as possible! In Stats Insider's inaugural BBL podcast - with a working title of "Episode 1" - host Hedge introduces the audience to Ritchie and Nick from SIHQ, who clearly, have been studying the form leading into Wednesday nights BBL Season Opener. After a bit of education on who and what Stats Insider is and does, and how the revolutionary new cricket model works, it's time to get stuck into the juicy, meaty, goodness that is Big Bash cricket.   While touching on the Futures markets for each team, the focus is on the first two games of the season. 6.25 Brisbane Heat vs Adelaide Strikers The Stats Insider model loves the Strikers, but with Travis Head on national duty with Australia, the lads look at how the Strikers look without their talismanic batsman. Colin Ingram, Matt Short and Jon Wells get a mention on the batting side, while last season's highest wicket-taker Rashid Khan and 'death bowler' Ben Laughlin also get a wrap up from the boys.  Unfortunately, Test hero Peter Siddle gets a knock from Hedge as someone who's greatest talent is "running in hard." The Heat look appropriately priced when compared with Stats Insider's Simulations. So much hinges on the "Bash Brothers" opening partnership of Chris Lynn and Brendon McCullum, but Hedge feels that Joe Burns at first or second drop could be invaluable to Brisbane's fortunes, and that Swepson looks to be value for Heat most wickets. Stats Insider's BBL data specialist, Ritchie, feels the young (but unknown) Afghani spinning gun, Mujeeb, might be a better wicket-taking option than Swepson. Ritchie also identified a particular weakness in Chris Lynn's game, thinking the elite leggie, Rashid Khan, might be able to exploit Lynn in Game 1.  14.15 Melbourne Renegades vs Perth Scorchers The lads feel this looks a little David vs Goliath with the powerhouse Scorchers coming East to face the recently rebuilt Melbourne Renegades. Ritchie gives us a sneak peek into some potential betting value on this game so keep an eye on the match pages prior to bat toss!  Hedge thinks the Scorchers' only issue might be their absolute quality bowling lineup... "Is there such a thing as having too many good bowlers?" Tye, Willey, Richardson, Coulter-Nile, Behrendorff and even skipper Mitch Marsh will all be used as strike bowlers at times, showing extreme depth in that pace department. The team all feel the Renegades might be some value at the wooden spoon / most losses markets following the loss of some elite talent in Brad Hodge, Brad Hogg, Dwayne Bravo and James Pattinson, not sure what to expect from the likes of Cooper, Ludeman and Dan Christian, while the bowling of Nabi and Cameron Boyce will be leaned on heavily to get the 'Gades through their 20 overs, hopefully taking a few wickets too.  18.45 BBL Team Futures Hedge and Nick lament the lack of talent at the Stars, while Ritchie talks through the differences between the (nearly) straight player swap of James Faulkner and Dan Christian and the impact they can have on their respective franchises. The Hurricanes are inconsistent but the talent has shown they can take Hobart all the way if they can put it all together. the Sixers will give opportunities to some young fellas who will get game time around the likes of Joe Denly, who may or may not be the first player to score a ton and take a hattrick in the same T20 game...  26.30 The boys give their players of the tournament... Plenty of value on offer!  www.statsinsider.com.au/bbl

15: The Punt Return: Betting on the NFL - Week 15

14: The Punt Return: Betting on the NFL - Week 14

Week 13 kicks off with a massive Man vs Machine game with Josh Wye on the complete opposite side of the Stats Insider model. No plays in Week 13 from Woot as he takes the weekend off NFL action, while Dr Darryl Data has a word of warning for bettors this week. 0.00 Intro 2.40 Week 12 Results 6.20 Stats Insider 7.58 #NOvsDAL #TNF #MANvsMACHINE 11.05 #INDvsJAX 12.15 #LACvsPIT #SNF 14.11 #CARvsTB 14.54 #CLEvsHOU #MANvsMACHINE 17.04 #BUFvsMIA 17.34 #CHIvsNYG 18.14 #DENvsCIN #MANvsMACHINE 19.59 #LAvsDET 22.10 #ARIvsGB 23.00 #KCvsOAK 23.53 #NYJvsTEN 25.30 #MINvsNE 27.26 #SFvsSEA 28.12 #WASvsPHI 29.03 #BALvsATL 30.20 Stats Insider Premium 30.43 #LockOfTheWeek?? 35.28 Final Thoughts 26.25 Outro

THANKSGIVING IS HERE! Week 12 is amongst us and with it comes a host of early divisional games in Thanksgiving week. As the boys sleep schedule gets thrown a little out of whack, we take a look at Week 12 NFL action. QUESTIONS: Is there a massive difference between Mitch Trubisky and Chase Daniel? Joe Flacco or Lamar Jackson? 0.00 Intro 2.45 Week 11 Results 7.15 Stats Insider 7.33 Byes 7.55 #CHIvsDET 9.10 #WASvsDAL 10.32 #ATLvsNO 12.44 #JAXvsBUF 13.35 #OAKvsBAL 15.51 #SFvsTB  17.30 #NYGvsPHI 18.57 #CLEvsCIN 20.32 #NEvsNYJ 21.32 #SEAvsCAR 23.07 #MIAvsIND 24.42 #ARIvsLAC 25.50 #PITvsDEN 28.07 #GBvsMIN #SNF 29.11 #TENvsHOU 30.42 Stats Insider Premium 31.05 #LockOfTheWeek 32.45 Final Thoughts 33.38 Outro

11: The Punt Return: Betting on the NFL - Week 11

For the third straight week the Punt Return Podcast was missing one-third of the usual trio. While Woot was active this time, Darryl Data was inactive. Before getting into their bets the boys talk very briefly about the first half of the 2018/19 NFL season. They outline their biggest surprises so far with the Rams finding another gear and Patrick Mahomes exploding immediately as an MVP candidate being their two biggest. This weeks plays are headlined by the biggest man vs machine of the season. Both Woot and Wye are all over the New Orleans Saints -4.5 while the model is absolutely infatuated with the Cincinnati Bengals this week. The Bengals at the +5 line is a monstrous +11% edge right now, making it one of the best plays of the month. The guys really like the Saints chances against a Cincinnati team that has been porous on pass defense over the last few weeks and will be without super star wide receiver AJ Green on offense. The result of this match shall be hotly discussed when all hands are on deck in next week’s podcast. Apart from the Bengals, the model’s best play is the Browns +4.5 with the model having the Browns losing by only a field goal. DID YOU KNOW? • Russell Wilson is a perfect 3-0 when an underdog of 7 or more points. • New England is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games on the road Join the conversation with the #PuntReturnPodcast.