Asia's Developing Future

A growing number of G20 countries are confronted with rapidly aging societies. This demographic transition poses a serious threat to economic stability, as ADBI Deputy Dean Chul Ju Kim, lead co-chair of the T20 Japan task force on population aging, explains. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2F5JZE7 Visit the T20 website https://t20japan.org Read Task Force 10: Aging Population and its Economic Impact + Immigration https://bit.ly/2ZiNUVH

Think 20 (T20) is the research and policy advice network for the G20 which in 2019 is chaired by ADBI as part of Japan’s G20 presidency. In this podcast, we look at T20 policy solutions for addressing the Future of Work and Education for the Digital Age. The Lead Co-Chair of the T20 Japan task force tackling this rapidly emerging issue is Dr Peter Morgan, ADBI Senior Consulting Economist and Vice Chair of Research. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2YSxO4T Visit the T20 website https://t20japan.org Read Task Force 7: The Future of Work and Education for the Digital Age https://bit.ly/30OBoyT Read the latest ADBI publication: Realizing Education for All in the Digital Age https://bit.ly/2JKjuIp

Large-scale funding is needed to transform fossil fuel dominated energy markets into a low-carbon energy sector, and that requires private sector participation, both in terms of investment and institution building, especially in Asia, which is the current growth center of the world. Countries have to accelerate further investment into low-carbon energy infrastructure to meet their Paris Climate Change Accord commitments. And thus, there are new opportunities for green growth. Public–private partnerships and green investment banks are two effective ways to bring private-sector funding on board to promote those goals. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2HlYbdE Read the working paper https://bit.ly/2JoS5LV About the authors Dharish David is an associate faculty member at the Singapore University of Social Sciences. Anbumozhi Venkatachalam is a senior energy economist at the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia. Know more about ADBI’s work https://bit.ly/2LHd91X https://bit.ly/2VnJ1II

The Think20 (T20), the G20’s research and policy advice network, will hold its annual summit in Tokyo on 26-27 May 2019 to detail groundbreaking policy innovations for consideration by G20 Leaders during their summit in Osaka one month later. In this episode of Asia’s Developing Future, T20 Japan Chair, ADBI Dean Naoyuki Yoshino, explains how the T20’s empirical approach to policy development could do wonders for G20 countries ability to tackle emerging challenges at this critical juncture for the global economy. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2LYbntE Visit the T20 website https://t20japan.org Watch our animation on localized green energy projects https://bit.ly/2WShGjn

Fast-growing Bangladesh is getting richer but environmental issues are being left behind. It may be time to take a step back and look at what could and should be done to avert a potential catastrophe. Bangladesh is one of the countries most exposed to climate change events. Almost 75% of its territory lies less than 10 meters above sea level, and more than 700 rivers run through its territory. Floods, drought, salinity, cyclones, sea-level rises, and more may become more common in the coming years. At the same time, its 160 million inhabitants are starting to benefit from growth of over 6% a year in the last decade. Per capita energy consumption has almost doubled since 2000 and millions who never had access to power can now flip a switch for lights or plug in appliances to get electricity. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2VurCCW Read the working paper https://bit.ly/2WEnOfa About the author Monzur Hossain is a senior research fellow at the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Know more about ADBI’s work https://bit.ly/2HfcAXE

The share of national income earned by workers has been falling in most countries, and inequality has been rising as a result. The opposite is true in Malaysia. But what seems to be good news there is masking a worrying trend. Income share has become a focus of economists and social policy advocates as the share of income taken by workers has fallen and that earned by the owners of capital has risen. It’s a global version of “the rich get richer” in effect, and has been seen throughout the world in recent years. So, it makes sense that when labor income share was seen to be rising in Malaysia, and inequality evening out, the trend would draw attention. Unfortunately, the reason behind what would seem on the surface a positive shift in Malaysia can likely be blamed on the country’s de-industrializing, says researchers for a working paper for the Asian Development Bank Institute. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2GHsFXd Read the working paper https://bit.ly/2W4FDU7 About the authors Allen Ng is director of research at Malaysia’s Khazanah Research Institute. Tan Theng Theng and Tan Zhai Gen are research assistants at the institute. Know more about ADBI’s work https://bit.ly/2GC5lKu

The global trend to more open trade and migration has benefited the global economy, but the share of income taken by labor has been declining at the same time. As protectionism and anti-migration policies grow in some countries, the role of globalization in the declining share of labor income has become a focus. That labor is seeing a decline in its share of income in many countries has been shown in a number of studies. The question is, why? Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2W4pYnK Read the working paper https://bit.ly/2DwDTMl About the authors Ken Suzuki is a researcher at the Embassy of Japan in Jordan. Yoko Oishi is a research associate at the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI). Saumik Paul was a research economist at ADBI at the time the working paper was published. Know more about ADBI’s work https://bit.ly/2GC5lKu

Viet Nam has made ambitious commitments to combat climate change under the Paris Agreement, but only by making massive changes will it be able to live up to those plans. Viet Nam’s carbon intensity—or the use of carbon in its economy—is currently the second highest in Asia. The growth in the amount of greenhouse gasses it produces is among the fastest in the world. Rather than demonstrating a clear program to switch to alternative energy sources, the government plans an even greater reliance on fossil fuels to maintain the country’s impressive growth rate. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2ItEKRZ Read the working paper https://bit.ly/2VVdWx1 About the authors Trong Co Nguyen is a director at Viet Nam’s Academy of Finance in the Ministry of Finance. Anh Tu Chuc is an associate professor at the Academy of Finance in the Ministry of Finance. Le Ngoc Dang is a faculty member of the International Finance Department at the Academy, which is based in Ha Noi. Know more about ADBI’s work https://bit.ly/2IFRcgQ https://bit.ly/2MbErO1

Limits to internal migration increase disparity and keep the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from reaping the full benefit of its trade and industry success. The PRC’s internal registration system, known as “hukou,” calls for residents to be registered and identified in the places they live. Although the system has been somewhat relaxed over the last few decades, obtaining hukou in cities such as Beijing or Shanghai remains difficult for those who move there in search of work. Workers who come to those cities without valid hukou are not eligible for some jobs or the full range of social services available to official residents. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2Ko8OjI Read the working paper https://bit.ly/2U7PTdR About the authors Yuan Zi is an assistant professor at the University of Oslo in Norway. Know more about ADBI’s work https://bit.ly/2UOCN8F

Services firms can help manufacturing grow in developing countries. But the quality and technological competence of those companies is what matters most when it comes to positive spillover effects. The simple existence of service firms isn’t enough to make a difference for manufacturers. In addition, countries which allow more open trade in services can expect to see a greater benefit for their manufacturing sector, and that is especially true for low-income countries. The makeup of manufacturing companies is also a factor in whether they will benefit from contact with services firms. Those are the main findings of a working paper for the Asian Development Bank Institute, which looked at the spillover benefits that service firms can have on manufacturing. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2JUYGyC Read the working paper https://bit.ly/2TRudkC About the authors Deborah Winkler is a senior consultant and principal at Global Economic Policy LLC. Know more about ADBI’s work https://bit.ly/2FODchP

Liberalizing energy markets so that locally generated renewable energy projects have a chance to compete with big utilities is only the first step in getting those projects off the ground. Other policies are needed to ensure the participation of local politicians and consumers. Those policies should promote financial returns from local power suppliers that are large enough to compete with traditional suppliers. And everyone needs to know that the profits of those local providers are being reinvested locally. Those are two of the recommendations of a working paper for the Asian Development Bank Institute that looked at energy market reforms in Japan and France. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2JKtoKQ Read the working paper https://bit.ly/2FIZgLW About the authors Aki Suwa is a professor at the Faculty for the Contemporary Society of Kyoto Women's University in Japan. Magali Dreyfus is a researcher at the National Centre for Scientific Research and the Center for European Research on Administration, Politics and Society, of Lille University in France. Know more about ADBI’s work https://bit.ly/2V1rgzl

A general tax on consumption that would fund the development of a low-carbon energy system is the only way greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced in time to benefit future generations. The solutions being tried now are not getting the job done. That’s the message of a recent working paper for the Asian Development Bank Institute. The paper explains why the solutions most commonly being used now are not working. It details how a new consumption tax could fund the research and development needed to avoid a coming disaster. Jatin Nathwani of the University of Waterloo and Artie W. Ng of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University explain. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2HIDOYL Read the working paper https://www.adb.org/publications/cap-invest-strategy-managing-intergenerational-burden-financing-energy-transitions About the authors Jatin Nathwani is Ontario Research Chair in Public Policy for Sustainable Energy and Executive Director at the Waterloo Institute for Sustainable Energy of the University of Waterloo in Canada. Artie W. Ng is principal lecturer with the Hong Kong Polytechnic University in Hong Kong, China. Know more about ADBI’s work https://bit.ly/2TPOWu4

Research has shown that better access to banking can help lift people out of poverty. A recent study in Bangladesh confirms that link. But it also suggests that policy makers should consider the large regional and local differences when applying regulations. The study, detailed in a recent working paper for the Asian Development Bank Institute, matched maps compiled from poverty data in Bangladesh with maps that tracked local-level banking services. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2HouDN3 Read the working paper https://www.adb.org/publications/regional-variations-banking-services-poverty-reduction-evidence-bangladesh About the authors Kazi Iqbal is a senior research fellow at the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies. Paritosh K. Roy is assistant professor at the Institute of Statistical Research and Training of the University of Dhaka. Shamsul Alam is senior secretary of the General Economics Division of the Planning Commission, Government of Bangladesh. Know more about ADBI’s work https://bit.ly/2NXnxAg https://bit.ly/2CeOURR

Advances in financial technology can help farmers in Asia raise money to improve their operations and deal with the risks that come from uncertain weather and other factors outside their control. A mass migration is taking place in Asia as people move from farms to the cities, raising standards of living as countries industrialize. Still, farming remains very important to much of developing Asia. And improving the lives of farmers means improving the lives of the poorest citizens, in many cases. Research has shown that almost all the poverty reduction in Asia since 2002 took place in rural areas. So, while the importance of agriculture to Asian economies is mostly declining, it remains the sector with the strongest role in reducing poverty. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2GX5lWX Read the working paper https://www.adb.org/publications/use-financial-technology-agriculture-sector About the authors Craig McIntosh is a professor at the School of Global Policy and Strategy of the University of California, San Diego. Caio Scuarcialupi Mansini is a graduate student in the same school. Know more about ADBI’s work https://bit.ly/2Xu9d6C https://bit.ly/2HeEtkC Watch the related video https://bit.ly/2Td4M1r

Indian cities should establish teams to tap the expertise contained within their global counterparts. Rather than starting from scratch, they can jump ahead by connecting with counterparts that have already navigated the challenges they face. For example, they can learn how to brand themselves as prime locations for corporate ecosystems by partnering with global peers. The home for these collaborations should be urban local bodies, known as ULBs, the organizations charged with planning and development for their cities. ULBs should focus some of their efforts on collaborating with their peers as a major tool to advance their goals. Prasad Thakur, a founding member of the War Room—City Transformation Unit at Pune Municipal Corporation, India, explains. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2Sr5VNK Read the blog https://bit.ly/2SZDpbd About the authors KE Seetha Ram is a senior consulting specialist for ADBI’s capacity building and training projects. Prasad Thakur is a founding member of the War Room—City Transformation Unit at Pune Municipal Corporation, India. Know more about ADBI’s work https://bit.ly/2NsHkHv https://bit.ly/2NuerL8