RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness Australia/New Zealand

Tim Hunt and Michael Harvey take a close look at developments in the Australian dairy sector over the past month—including a look at the outcome of the much-awaited operational review by Murray Goulburn, and what it means for shareholders and suppliers. They also digest Fonterra’s early price signal for 2017/18 and see whether it is in line with Rabobank’s expectations.

New Zealand dairy farmers can expect profitable farmgate milk prices moving into the new 2017/18 season. Looking further afield, the future for global dairy demand is bright across the next five years: but New Zealand will play a smaller role in providing the milk supply growth compared to the prior 5 year period.

Regulatory changes at both national and regional levels continue to impact farmers across New Zealand. Sustainability analyst Blake Holgate provides an update on the latest developments, and discusses what they mean for New Zealand farmers. Strategies to help farmers ‘future proof’ themselves against increasing regulation are also identified.

Amidst prevailing low grain prices, what’s driving the lows, how long they may last and what might prompt upside are discussed. World cereal grain prices are at multi-year lows. As the Australian 2017/18 winter cropping season gets underway, the short through to medium term price prospects are discussed, together with the factors that will come to bear on how long prices remain low.

Charlie Clack takes a fresh look at the global market, and Australia’s position, during a time of excellent global prices and respectable returns for growers. With global acreage on the rise and softening synthetic prices, where do the opportunities lie in a more challenging market environment?

After a difficult period Australian dairy farmers are shifting their focus and planning to the 2017/18 season. Michael Harvey connects the dots between Rabobank forecasts for global markets and what this will mean for farmgate milk prices. The key question: Will margins return to profitability?

In 2015 Brazil regained direct access to the China market. In 2016 they gained access to the US market. They continue to seek increased access into other major beef markets such as Japan, South Korea, Canada and Mexico. This increased presence in some of Australia’s major and traditional markets is adding strong market competition.

As summer draws to an end, Marc Soccio discusses how Australia’s diverse horticulture sector has encountered one of the wettest and mildest growing seasons seen across large parts of south eastern Australia for some time, and the changing trade and investment climate for the sector.

The key purchasing and application period is fast approaching in Australia and New Zealand. In the episode Michael Harvey and Dirk Jan Kennes discuss the short and medium-term outlooks for global fertilizer prices and the implications for local end-users; while also discussing the implications the mega-mergers taking place across Farm Inputs sectors have for local supply chains.

With a reduction in production, Australia’s beef export volumes dropped 23% in 2016. Japan again became Australia’s largest export market and this podcast looks into the Japanese market and some of the drivers in that market.

New Zealand dairy farmers are emerging from a tough two seasons of enduring some of the lowest milk prices in the world. Going forward, the new 2017/18 season will most likely kick off a new era for New Zealand dairy.

Following on from his involvement in Investment in Agriculture Forum hosted by the Queensland Government in Toowoomba on 28 February 2017, Marc Soccio discusses the strategic rationale behind global investors’ growing role in the Australian food and agriculture sector, and its place amongst the broader pool of funding available to support the industry’s future growth ambitions.

2017 has been described as a ‘moment of truth’ for New Zealand agriculture due to the uncertainty and changes the industry is facing in the coming year. The key issues and challenges facing the industry in 2017 are discussed, including market outlooks for New Zealand sheep and beef. In addition, key findings from Rabobank’s recent analysis of projected Chinese animal protein out to 2020 are explored, with a specific focus on what this means for New Zealand farmers.

Australian dairy farmers and supply chains servicing both export and local markets have been confronted with headwinds which will push production back down to 20 years lows. In this edition, Tim Hunt and Mick Harvey explore the critical issue of whether 2017 will provide the ingredients in helping the Australian dairy industry bounce back from one of the most challenging years ever? The discussion will explore what is required to support a recovery including the outlook for milk prices and farm inputs, and also what are the hurdles and issues and risks to watch as the year progresses?

Rabobank's RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness team has 90 analysts working in local teams across the worldwide Rabobank network. They generate knowledge, and develop views and insights on businesses, topics and developments in the food & agribusiness sectors across the globe. All analysts have their own sector specialisations—ranging from meat and fish to dairy, vegetables, fruit and floriculture, coffee and cocoa.