POMEPS Middle East Political Science Podcast

On this week's POMEPS Conversation podcast, Marc Lynch speaks with Bassel Salloukh, an associate professor of political science at the Social Sciences Department at Lebanese American University. "Many countries are becoming like Lebanon where people start thinking of sectarian/tribal/ethnic divisions and identities as primordial. And then the only way to get out of the conflict is through the institutionalization of these identities into a new, power-sharing pact. But what that does is to freeze these identities and make it very difficult to move away from." "At the end of the day, the major problem is that people start looking at these identities as primordial. And they start behaving as if these identities have always been with us as part of these ancient hatreds. It becomes very difficult to come up with a counter-narrative."

On this week's POMEPS Conversation podcast, Marc Lynch speaks with Daniel Corstange, an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science and the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. Corstange talks about his current research, which focuses on gathering data from Syrian refugees. "You can think of a lot of different stories we tell ourselves about why there's a war going on. And it doesn't seem to be the case that any of them are the true story." "So we're trying to understand why people think this is happening. There are actually very interesting patterns about why people think one thing versus another thing." "This is an existential crisis for a lot of people. It's completely destroyed their lives at home. They are picking up the pieces elsewhere — sometimes they haven't even been able to pick up the pieces. But it's not the case that they've managed to get across the border and they can shut off what's happening in the civil war."

On this week's POMEPS Conversation podcast, Marc Lynch speaks with Pete Moore about the political economy and refugees in Jordan. Moore is an associate professor of political science and director of graduate studies in the Department of Political Science at Case Western University. Looking at how past events influence current relationships, Moore says, "What we see today in terms of the U.S. role in Jordan was incubated in the early 80s vis-à-vis the Iran-Iraq war." By the 1990s, "Jordan was caught between the demands of the U.S. regarding sanctions, but is stuck with of a transport sector and industrial sector that was wedded to Iraq and does not want to see that relationship weaken." Moore says, "The regime wanted to hold on to those linkages...after the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, those relationships will be looked at less in an economic realm and more in the security realm." "It takes the monarchy a long time, but essentially they vote to let die that industry and transport sector. And that's one of the reasons for Jordan's highest unemployment rate in the region."

On this week's POMEPS Conversation Podcast, Marc Lynch speaks with Sune Haugbølle. Haugbølle is an associate professor at Roskilde University, and much of his research focuses on Leftist movements in the Middle East. "Before the Arab uprisings, I had a sense for a long time that there's a real gap in the historiography of the modern Middle East. Leftists groups,"Haugbølle says, "Have really been understudied. There's a lot we don't know about them— and I think that lack of knowledge came from the notion that somehow the left had ceased to be important." "I'm trying to see what the historical memory of failures and trasitions of the Left in the last couple of decades means today for the Leftist activitists, militants, intellectuals today," says Haugbølle. "The history of the Arab Left is global." In today's world, Haugbølle argues, "The new Left is a fragmented field of smaller movements. It's by definition a vast array of influences." "Obviously the Middle East is not in the throes of the American homogeneity that it used to be years ago. And they're trying to find their feet in that." The Left must question of imperialism, especially with the conflict in Syria, says Haugbølle. "We re-conceptualize the struggle in this confused, post-revolutionary period that we're in. That comes for the fore in the question of: Syria. Do you see the Russian intervention as a sort of protection of a popular regime with legitimacy, a people's army that needs to be protected from America's attempt to smash it? Or do you see that equally as imperialism? Most of the international socialists have taken the line that the Russian intervention is also a form of imperialism. You get splits over that." "There's an intellectual history and a political history. There's so much we don't know. There's so many achieves people haven't looked at. Journals people haven't read yet," says Haugbølle.

On this week's POMEPS Conversation podcast, Marc Lynch speaks with Vickie Langohr about public sexual harassment faced by women in Egypt and the rest of the Middle East. Langohr is an associate professor at the College of the Holy Cross, focusing on Middle East politics, nationalism and democratization. "Egyptians will often tell you that several decades ago, [sexual harrasment] was not something that was happening a lot. But we have data from 2008 — before the revolution — that shows pretty close to the same number of women polled saying they experienced harassment even on a daily basis." "Public sexual harassment has become an issue of 20 or 30-somethings is because they're in public more, particularly in protests. I do think there is a generational angle to it." Langohr said a lot of sexual harassment happens on crowded subways. "Any time there's mass crowding on public transit, sexual harassment increases." Langohr spoke with young Egyptians about their political involvement. "In the interviews I've done with many members of these groups...many would say 'I never even dreamed anybody but Mubarak could be in power.' Not because they liked him, but because the political horizon of the imaginary was not there." While Egypt has tightened its laws on protesting in public, Langohr says that activism is still happening. "Even though activists can't work in the streets anymore, there has been a spread into the institutions, like Cairo University." Still, even after a 2014 amendment that increased penalties and made it slightly easier to prosecute, "Many women don't want to bring charges because, unfortunately, people in their family believe that if they've been harassed, they must have brought it on themselves in some way." "So there's a lot that remains to be done."

On this week's POMEPS podcast, Marc Lynch speaks with Reinoud Leenders about the origins of the Syrian conflict. Leenders is a reader in the Department of War Studies at King's College London. "In the beginning, it was a question of who would move first, and where." Leenders says. "Why it happened in certain places and not others, it is because of local characteristics." Aleppo, Leenders says, held back. "It was a very conservative, middle class [place] that felt it was too much to get involved and put a stop on mobilization initially." "In hindsight, lots of people have said it was a mistake of the [Syrian] regime to have applied such vast levels of repression," Leenders said. "But I think that, beyond moral considerations, I don't think the repression as such was a mistake...The brutality of the regime touched on some really sensitive registers, include dignity and honor of women." Even as Leenders's research focuses on the parsing out the conflict through the lens of two narratives, "We are five years down the road, and every day the conflict goes on, I get more questions than answers."

Charles Kurzman speaks with Marc Lynch about how past failed mobilizations can explain the challenges facing the Middle East after the 2011 uprisings. Kurzman is a professor of sociology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and co-director of the Carolina Center for the Study of the Middle East and Muslim Civilizations. "There's the sense of disillusionment when things don't turn out well. The hopes and dreams that come crumbling down when the new institutions turn out not what you thought they ought to be. We saw this in Iran, when a huge portion of the population that was so active in bringing down the shah, then feels that their revolution was hijacked. This new Islamic Republic doesn't represent what they meant at all. We see it again after the uprisings of the Arab Spring; huge portions of the populations saying, 'No, no. This isn't what we wanted.'"

Saudi Arabia is facing challenges: the global oil slump, the future of the GCC's collective stability and its intervention in Yemen. "Yemen was the place they decided to strike back," Greg Gause tells Marc Lynch in this latest POMEPS podcast. "I think both because they've always seen it as their backyard — part of their special preserve — where they were least likely to directly confront the Iranians. You do something like they're doing in Syria, and you're fighting the Iranians directly." There are signs, Gause says, that an end may be in sight. "The fact there was a Houthi delegation in Riyadh in April show that those in charge are looking for an exit ramp." Saudi Arabia's economic challenges lie beyond low oil prices. "The Saudi private sector has been a job creating machine in the last decade. It's just that almost all of those jobs have gone to foreigners...the real core of this how do you make it so Saudi private sector hire more Saudis without destroying the business model they've created. I don't see that in vision 2030." Gause says he believes the stability of Saudi regime is sound. "Fiscal crisis can create regime crisis." But Gause notes, "I don't see the kinds of fissues in the ruling family that could lead to serious problems in Saudi Arabia." Back in the 1980s and 90s, Saudi Arabia "ran their debt up to a 100% of GDP. There's no indication the Saudis won't be able to sell their government bonds. I think they actually have plenty of room to put off fiscal crisis." Looking beyond Saudi to its neighbors, "when things are really serious, the GCC comes together." But, Gause warns, "It would be a mistake for us to overestimate the policy coherence of the GCC, even now." F. Gregory Gause, III is the John H. Lindsey ’44 Chair, Professor of International Affairs and Head of the International Affairs Department at the Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University.

"The crisis in Turkey has been a long time coming," Kristin Fabbe says about the current political situation in Turkey. Fabbe, an assistant professor at Harvard Business School, speaks with Marc Lynch on this week's POMEPS podcast about the "very scary" climate in Turkey. "There was this key moment between the first election in 2015 and the second, and what happened in between those two elections was very scary for Turkish politics. You see this bombings in Ankara and then members of the AKP get up and say, 'This happened because there was no government. This did not happen on our watch.' They use the fact they lost control of the parliament... to basically say, 'You're better off under our thumb.'" Their conversation looks at how President Erdogan is leading his party in the midst of terrorism and the refugee crisis, their economic situation, and Turkey's relationship with the European Union. "Turkish democracy does better when Turkey is engaged with Europe. When Turkey is disengaged, Turkish democracy does worse. I think there's really something to that argument," Fabbe said. "The question is... is this the kind of engagement you want Turkey to have with Europe over the refugee and migration issue?"

Marc Lynch speaks with Rory McCarthy about Tunisia's Ennahda party, and its transition through the uprisings to present day.

Marc Lynch speaks with Steffen Hertog about the current economic situation and challenges faced in the GCC, specifically Saudi Arabia's recent reforms in subsidies for citizens and public sector employment.

Marc Lynch speaks with Bessma Momani to discuss her book, "Arab Dawn: Arab Youth and the Demographic Dividend They Will Bring." Momani is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Waterloo and the Balsillie School of International Affairs in Canada.

This week Marc Lynch speaks with Zaid al Ali of Princeton University about the constitutional drafting process in the Middle East in the wake of the Arab Uprisings.

Jonah Schulhofer-Wohl speaks with Marc Lynch about his continued research on the war in Syria.

On this week's POMEPS Conversation, Erin Snider from Texas A&M speaks with Marc Lynch about the political economy of foreign aid in the Middle East.