POLITICO's EU Confidential

Tony Blair came to Brussels this week with a clear message, delivered in this week's interview: I’m trying to stop Brexit, and there’s only one shot left — European immigration controls. If that idea or a second British Brexit referendum fails, Europe will be left with an angrier bigger version of Singapore undercutting its business and social model on its doorstep. Highlights from the show: Hard Brexit will mean big, angry European version of Singapore: If Brexit continues on its current course, Blair predicts there will be "a long and difficult period of economic restructuring" in Britain. As part of that process, the U.K. will become "a competitor to Europe, not an ally" and will "attract investment basically by pointing the finger at Europe and saying 'we're not like them,'" he said. "That's the future and that has massive implications for your welfare system, your pension system, your health care system.” Immigration fears: Blair admits he could have done more within EU freedom of movement rules to preemptively tackle immigration fears. "I think that frankly what I didn't really understand fully is how different countries in Europe deal with the existing freedom rules in Europe. If you take for example what the French do or how the Belgians deal with them, they just apply these rules in a much tougher way. In Belgium you're given two months to find a job and if you don’t, you're out." Tories would be crazy to hold an election rather than a second Brexit referendum: Blair explains why he thinks one of those options is inevitable. U.K. government handling of Northern Ireland: "It makes me very angry, I think it's totally irresponsible." What Blair thinks is wrong with Jeremy Corbyn's Brexit policy: Being satisfied with a bespoke customs union with the EU would mean the Labour Party "pulled up its anchor … without actually getting to the truly safe harbour which is to turn the fire on the whole Tory strategy." EU's reform problem: "Every time it wants to reform it sees this in terms of institutional power … (instead of) expending your energy in a way that the citizens of Europe will find useful." On his failed tilt at European Council president: "I would have done it if I was asked. I wasn't and there were lots of different reasons for that,” who was in town to give a speech at an event organized by the European Policy Centre. Blair on Blair: The former prime minister tells us about his worst EU summit moment, his European political hero, what he thinks about retirement, and what keeps him grounded. EU WTF: Our podcast panel discusses the decision of a German food bank to turn away foreigners. MEP of the week: Panel members delve once again into our big box of names to test their knowledge of members of the European Parliament.

This week's episode features a review of the Munich Security Conference and an interview with Ben Hodges, who recently retired as commanding general of the U.S. Army in Europe. Also on the podcast: our panelists give their verdict on the big new job for Martin Selmayr, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker's powerful chief of staff, look forward to the Italian election and once again test their knowledge of members of the European Parliament. The Munich Security Conference, the premier gathering of security and defense experts and policymakers, has been called "a poor man's Davos, but one where work actually gets done." POLITICO's Matthew Karnitschnig gives host Ryan Heath the lowdown on this year's event and introduces his interview from the conference with Hodges, who discusses transatlantic ties, Russia, the Balkans and how Europe can deter potential threats. Highlights from the show: Hodges on Russia: "In all the governments of Europe, people recognize that the environment really has changed, that this is not somebody sabre-rattling toward Russia or you know somebody hoping that the Cold War will come back, this is a real change in security environment." Germany's miserable military: A report for the German parliament found the country's army ill-prepared for combat. Hodges says "Germany absolutely can and should do more" to contribute to NATO but he has some novel ideas about how Berlin's contribution could be measured. Hear more in the podcast. Eye off the Balkans: "I think we did sort of take our eye off the Balkans ... we've plateaued there and probably need to put some more energy into the institutions in the Balkans, otherwise they do become vulnerable to ... Chinese influence or Russian influence." EU WTF — Martin Selmayr: The panel reacts to Martin Selmayr's new job, and what it will mean for how the Commission is run. They also discuss the Italian election and respond to a reporter's challenge to name the movie that best fits the Brexit storyline. MEP of the week: Our panelists delve once again into a big box filled with the names of members of the European Parliament to see if they can find someone they know. We also hear more about the people behind the names picked out in previous weeks. And we talk to last week's MEP of the week, Eva Kaili of Greece, from the Socialists & Democrats group. She talks about her growing interest in technology and artificial intelligence — and her proposal to revamp one of the Parliament's committees.

This week's special guest is Alexander Stubb, the former Finnish prime minister and ex-MEP who is now vice president of the European Investment Bank (EIB). Stubb talks about how the bank will handle Brexit and how it will play an increasing role as the EU tries to do "more with less" in its next long-term budget. The podcast panel discusses the Oxfam sex scandal, the controversial Spitzenkandidat system for picking the Commission president and the intriguing backstory of a notable MEP. Highlights from the show: Stubb on the EU budget after Brexit: "The basic idea is that you have to be realistic. That the EU budget is not going to grow, especially after Brexit, so then you're going to have to come up with different types of ideas of leveraging or getting more bang for the buck or for doing more with less." Stubb on the impact of Brexit on the EIB: "We will have less money to invest as the U.K. leaves the EU... but then again we'll also have less population and we'll have less member states in the EU. At the end of the day, these things balance out, and you must remember the EIB is a rather flexible bank in the sense that during difficult times we are able to increase our firepower." Will Stubb run for Commission or Council president? He’s open to it, but POLITICO’s Finnish sources suggest Stubb will not try to elbow his compatriot and party colleague Jyrki Katainen out of the way. "It's always a big hypothetical ... if someone was asking if I'll go back to national politics, the answer is no. But European politics is always an appealing affair to me,” Stubb says. EU WTF — Oxfam sex scandal: The Brussels brains trust talks about the Oxfam sex scandal over the behavior of its staff in countries including Haiti and asks how the EU, as a major aid donor, will react. EU Thumbs Up — One Brussels, One Vote: A group of Brussels residents has urged the Belgian government to change the law — and potentially the constitution — to allow more than 300,000 non-Belgian citizens to participate in regional elections. Feud of the Week — Spitzenkandidat: The podcast panel debates the pros and cons of a feud that will last more than a week — and tries to outdo the Commission and the Council with some blue-sky thinking of its own on how to make the EU more democratic. MEP of the Week: Panelist Ailbhe Finn did her homework on an MEP we picked out of our big box of parliamentarians two weeks ago — France's Marc Joulaud. She tells us why Joulaud was at the center of a recent big French political scandal. Listen to the podcast to find out more — and discover our new MEP of the week, a former TV journalist.

EU politics this week was all about shrinkage and enlargement. The shrinkage of course is Brexit, with the U.K. government again failing to set out its negotiating position and Michel Barnier sweeping through London to explain the EU's red lines. EU Confidential's featured guest this week is former U.K. Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg. The enlargement — or potential enlargement — comes from the Western Balkans. The European Commission Tuesday issued a strategy that opens the way for top-performing countries in the region to join the EU in 2025. There's a catch: the Commission all but said none of the Western Balkans countries will be ready by then, because of endemic corruption, organized crime and fragile democratic institutions. Highlights from the show: Nick Clegg says U.K. government is "a bunch of muppets": "I think it is impossible to exaggerate the level of a cluelessness and incompetence now at the heart of British government." He said the current government has torn up the U.K.'s reputation for competence and "to all extents and purposes the British government now looks like a bunch of muppets." Looming constitutional crisis: Clegg warned of — and encouraged — a constitutional crisis later in 2018, caused by a standoff between the U.K. parliament and Theresa May's government as MPs warm to the idea of rejecting whatever Brexit deal emerges. "I don't think MPs should feel remotely duty bound to vote for this (Brexit deal),” he said. Jacob Rees-Mogg = Don Quixote in pinstripes: Clegg said the leading Brexiteers are "like Maoist revolutionaries. They don't care how many bodies they sacrifice along the way" to their "promised land." MEP of the Week — Lambert van Nistelrooij (Netherlands): Lambert, a Christian Democrat with a passion for connecting generations and communities to the digital revolution, talks about his latest efforts to make online shopping easier outside your home country. You can contact the podcast team at podcast@politico.eu.

It's a bumper episode this week. We hear from POLITICO's man in Prague, Siegfried Mortkowitz, about the good cop-bad cop Euroskeptic routine coming out of the Czech capital, and we catch up with a prime minister, a bank chief and an MEP that Ryan Heath spoke to at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Slovenian Prime Minister Miro Cerar tells us why he wants his country to be a home for progressive innovation. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development chief Suma Chakrabarti pitched the EBRD as "the most extreme pro-private sector business model there is" among public banks, and one that is able to cut through the EU's political baggage because it is independent from the Union. Marietje Schaake, MEP and a WEF Young Global Leader, wowed those who wanted to learn if "Europe is back," via a series of dinners, panels and reports. Schaake advocated "showing by doing" as a way to transfer that diversity to the broader Davos delegates list, which is 80 percent men. The best part of the WEF, in her opinion: The world's A-list is "very approachable." Czechs seeking asylum in New Zealand, monkeys and more on our podcast panel: Just what was the German auto industry thinking with its gas experiments on animals and humans? Why was a Czech family granted asylum in New Zealand? And where in the world is Pervenche Berès, our very first "MEP of the Week?" You can contact the podcast team at podcast@politico.eu.

We've got the lowdown from Davos in another special edition from the World Economic Forum. The podcast features interviews with two prime ministers — the Netherlands' Mark Rutte and Poland's Mateusz Morawiecki — as well as U.S. investor Bill McGlashan, a champion of social impact investing. Ryan Heath is your host for a show that's both the final edition of our daily Davos Confidential podcasts and the latest weekly episode in our EU Confidential series. Rutte's red lines: The Dutch PM makes clear he's not up for turning the eurozone into a "transfer union." He says he's all for more European integration if it means completing the single market but "we have to be very careful about what we want to achieve. I'm against risk sharing... And if that is what some people mean, I will very much plead against it." Brexit blues: Hear why the Netherlands "hates" the fact Britain is leaving the EU and what Rutte wants from London now. POLITICO’s Matthew Kaminski speaks to new Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki — a 49-year-old, polyglot banker — about his plans to fix Warsaw’s troubled relations with Brussels, the biggest threats to Poland and its economic successes. Firm on justice reform: "We are not weakening institutions," Morawiecki insists. "I'm absolutely convinced that we are strengthening those institutions. The judiciary system in Poland, after our reforms, is going to be more independent, more objective, more transparent, and more effective" Cabinet reshuffle: “The changes were important to actually bring some new thinking to the government. And the most important thing today is that we tried to find common ground with Europe." Russian worries: Hear why Morawiecki regards Moscow as one of the biggest threats to Poland — and why Warsaw is so opposed to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. U.S. investor Bill McGlashan explains why he started an investment fund with Bono, why he took his family to live in India for a year and why he believes private capital is essential to tackle global social and environmental challenges. And POLITICO's Florian Eder describes the scene as Donald Trump descended on Davos. The show also doubles as the final edition of our daily Davos Confidential podcasts. You can catch up with all of the week's episodes here: https://soundcloud.com/politicoeuconfidential

Ryan Heath and Matthew Kaminski look ahead to Theresa May’s appearance in Davos, hot on the heels of speeches by Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron. Also in the daily podcast, they discuss U.S. officials’ reception at the World Economic Forum, ahead of Donald Trump’s arrival. Ryan interviews Werner Hoyer, president of the European Investment Bank and talks to John Harris, POLITICO’s global editor-in-chief, who previews Trump’s speech to the forum on Friday. To get more from the POLITICO team at the WEF, sign up for the daily Davos Playbook at register.politico.eu/davosplaybook.

Direct from Davos in our daily podcast, POLITICO’s Ryan Heath, Florian Eder and Matthew Kaminski look forward to an unofficial Europe day at the World Economic Forum on Wednesday, when Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron and Paolo Gentiloni will all be in action. In keeping with the Europe theme, Ryan and Florian chat to Belgian Deputy Prime Prime Minister Alexander De Croo about the EU’s future, post-rage politics and Brexit. Ryan speaks to Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel, who explains why he always heads to Davos and also offers a brief history of his country — from farming to space mining. Ryan, Florian and Matthew look back at Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appearance at the WEF and explain why he missed his moment. To get more from the POLITICO team at the WEF, sign up for the daily Davos Playbook at register.politico.eu/davosplaybook.

Ryan Heath and Florian Eder bring you the latest from the World Economic Forum in Davos in POLITICO’s special daily pop-up podcast. Ryan talks to Arancha González, executive director of the International Trade Centre, who says the world needs to up its game when it comes to trade talks. He also catches up with Brett Solomon, a digital rights advocate who explains why he’s come to Davos this year. Ryan and Florian also discuss who’s battling for an audience with Donald Trump and share some behind-the-scenes gossip.

Davos Confidential: In the first of POLITICO’s daily pop-up podcasts from the World Economic Forum, Ryan Heath and Florian Eder preview this year’s gathering of the global elite. From the Crystal Awards to the Panda scale for speeches, Ryan and Florian have the inside track from the snow-covered slopes of the Swiss resort. They also unpack the decision by Germany’s Social Democrats to back coalition talks with Angela Merkel, who will be in Davos on Wednesday. As well as the daily podcast, Ryan and Florian will bring you a daily Davos Playbook email. Sign up for free at http://register.politico.eu/davosplaybook/.

This week's show features an interview with Estonia's President Kersti Kaljulaid, the first head of state to appear on the podcast. Kaljulaid explains why Estonia wants to pay more to the EU, reveals a promise Jean-Claude Juncker made to her about the post-Brexit EU budget and talks about how Estonia is struggling with Russia's turn to militarism. POLITICO Managing Editor Florian Eder joins us to preview the World Economic Forum in Davos January 22-26. Sign up to POLITICO's daily Davos Playbook coming out next week. And listen out for our daily pop-up Davos Confidential podcasts, which will be on the same feed as EU Confidential. With our podcast panel, we launch a new feature: MEP of the Week. We draw MEP names out of a box and see whether the panel knows who they are or what they've achieved. Some more highlights from our interview with Kaljulaid... Estonia ready to pay more to EU budget: "I'm hoping for a lot of change because we have lots of common, supranational goals which we need to develop," Kaljulaid said. Juncker's promise to the Baltics — No Brexit black hole: Kaljulaid spoke to EU Confidential directly after meeting European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. She said Juncker promised that the financing of projects like the high-speed Rail Baltic project would not be affected by Brexit. Estonia's place in the world: “Fully intertwined with Nordic economies … We stand on the liberal Democratic value base.” On Russia: “I want to set one thing straight ... We definitely thought that Russia will undertake exactly the same development path to democratic nations as we ourselves were undertaking … We definitely didn't want it to turn out this way and we are definitely in no way benefiting from the fact that it turned out this way,” Kaljulaid said. Data is Estonia’s designated survivor: Asked about Estonia’s plans for coping with an invasion or top-level threat, Kaljulaid focused on the country’s data embassy (essentially its data back-up) in Luxembourg as proof of how ready it is to cope with all scenarios. “This is something which I would advocate every country do," she said. You can contact the podcast team at podcast@politico.eu.

Host Ryan Heath interviews Daniel Ek, the CEO of global music pioneer Spotify. The music world was a notorious graveyard for online entrepreneurs: until Spotify. In this episode, Ek explains why he thinks Stockholm-based Spotify is different to Silicon Valley companies, what he wants from EU regulators, and becomes the first major tech CEO to give his full support to the #metoo movement. Ek also spills the beans on his favorite politician, his first 2018 resolution, and how firing 20 staff as a 17-year-old shaped his approach to building companies. Upbeat on Europe: Ek says "Europe has made tremendous progress just over the last 10 years" in closing its funding gap with Silicon Valley. He nominated fintech as the tech niche where Europe is achieving global leadership. EU regulators on right track but too slow: The development of an EU digital single market would be "very useful" because it would give "easy ways for people to be able to scale up" their companies before having to deal with multiple regulators, putting them on a par with U.S.-based firms. Ek credits EU officials for the right moves, but says they are too slow in making them. Vestager fan: Ek says it's time for fairer marketplaces — "regulation can actually help small firms" and more competition — a message that is music to the ears of European competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager. "We want there to be more people to compete: that ultimately will bring more innovation. It's really simple as that. And from my vantage point, she seems to be all for that." Time for equality in tech: Having two daughters made Ek realise "how unfair the world is" and that, even in Sweden, girls grow up bombarded by "stereotyping." With a clear note of frustration, Ek said: "I think there's so much bullshit being used by people like me in terms of saying 'oh, well, there's not enough females in technology so we can't be gender-balanced. That's bullshit." Spotify doesn't allow age and gender to be listed on its job applications now, but Ek says there's much more to do. Bring on the #metoo revolution: "Our view is obviously that #metoo is a real thing. Personally, I highly recommend and support all the women that are coming forward with these stories and I'm appalled honestly at how widespread this is," Ek said. He added, "We have a lot to do, as men, on what kind of work environments [we create] and the level of standards we're setting." Poland's new look: POLITICO reporter Joanna Plucinska joins us to discuss Ek's comments as well as the new-look Polish government and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki's dinner with Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. EU WTF moments: Lina Aburous and Ailbhe Finn join us to discuss online hate targeted at an Austrian baby, a strange Brexit letter written by David Davis, and a new survey that found nine in 10 women living in Brussels have experienced sexual harassment. You can contact the EU Confidential team at podcast@politico.eu.

Kaja Tael, Estonia's ambassador to the EU, reviews her country's six months running the bloc's rotating presidency. Host Ryan Heath also talks to POLITICO's Christian Oliver about the challenges for Bulgaria's 2018 EU presidency, from domestic infighting to far-right ministers. Estonia is northern, not eastern, European: Tael says Estonia is a bridge between different camps in the EU, but sees itself primarily as closer to a northern or Baltic bloc rather than a central or eastern European one. Revolution: Looking back on the past six months, Tael says progress in EU defense cooperation has been "nothing but revolutionary." She also outlines the tasks Bulgaria will face during its six months in the hot seat. Budget drama: While Tael says there is "no need to despair" about the state of the EU, debates over the next EU budget will certainly "stir up the most drama" in coming months. Bulgarian dilemma: Bulgarians will face conflicting emotions during the presidency, Christian Oliver says. "There's a broad public perception in Bulgaria that — of course you don't want you own country to look bad —  but equally people think their political class is so bad they should be punished, and held accountable." Partisan fights at home: Oliver is skeptical that Bulgaria's politicians will be able to unite to ensure a smooth presidency: "Infighting is a very big thing, point-scoring is more important than everyone pulling together." A Eurocrat's survival guide to Sofia: A youthful, energetic city will offer pleasant surprises if visiting officials and lobbyists know where to look. Iran protests: Our podcast panel reviews the EU's response to the demonstrations. ICYMI — Podcast with Jamie Shea, NATO deputy assistant secretary general: Andrew Gray interviewed Shea just before the holiday break.

Episode 27 of POLITICO's EU Confidential podcast features a review of the year from POLITICO reporters and an interview with NATO's Deputy Assistant Secretary General Jamie Shea, a Brussels veteran of almost 40 years. With regular host Ryan Heath on holiday, news editor Andrew Gray talks to Shea about the alliance's future challenges, the EU's new defense pact and his role as frontman when NATO went to war for the first time, over Kosovo in 1999. Looking back: POLITICO policy reporters pick out the biggest stories on their beats this year and tell us why they matter. A couple of big names crop up — and one isn't even European. From tech to trade, and from fisheries to the environment, our journalists have everything you need to impress friends and family with your policy knowledge over the holidays. Looking forward: Jamie Shea is NATO's deputy assistant secretary general for emerging security challenges. In an interview in his office at the alliance's headquarters, he talks about those challenges in detail — Russia and Ukraine in the east, instability to the south and the tests for NATO countries posed by hybrid warfare, in which an adversary can destabilize a society through cyberattacks, fake news and other nonconventional means. Wartime spokesman: Shea recalls his time as NATO spokesman during the Kosovo war, when the alliance found itself in the spotlight as never before. "The day before we announced the beginning of the air campaign, there were five journalists downstairs in the press area ... the next day, 450. The media in fact mobilized as fast as the NATO military, if not faster," Shea remembers. EU on defense: NATO officially welcomes the EU's push into the military arena, with the launch of its PESCO pact at last week's European Council. But Shea also outlines the challenges for countries who are now members of two military alliances. "One of the key things is that we have similar capability requirements because if we have one set of EU requirements that says the priority is helicopters and NATO's saying no ... the priority is transport aircraft, your poor defense minister is there thinking: 'well, what is it?'" Bygone Brussels: Shea moved to the Belgian capital in 1980 and reflects on how NATO, the EU and Brussels have changed during that time. "The success of NATO was boredom in a funny kind of way," he says of the Cold War. "You didn't want anything to happen because the only happening scenario would have been a confrontation." Season's greetings: The podcast takes a holiday break next week but will be back in the first week of January. In the meantime, for your festive travels and downtime, our complete back catalog is available on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud and many other podcast platforms. Thanks to all our listeners in 2017!

Episode 26 of POLITICO's EU Confidential podcast has just been released, featuring a deep dive into the EU's capital city. We discuss how to improve Brussels as a city with regional minister Pascal Smet and debate the thorny topic of racial diversity in the EU bubble. Brussels the "whore": There's no doubt Smet has a way with words. He compares Brussels, a city and region he hopes to transform, "with a whore, with a prostitute." He says the city is "attractive and at the same time unattractive. It's nice in its ugliness and ugly in its niceness.” Battle for Brussels: Smet casts governance reform in the city as a generational fight. The current leadership class are “dinosaurs” and act like a “junta.” He wants to transform Brussels into a place where things get done quickly. "We could do so much better [but] everything is fragmented.” Hear his plan to overhaul how the city is run. Smet’s city role models: Hamburg, Berlin and Vienna. Big picture = no cars: Smet want to get rid of all private cars in 15-20 years and replace them with autonomous shared vehicles. A deal for Eurocrats: They should be able to get all their government documents and transactions done in English but should be required to vote at both local and regional level, according to Smet. Surreal Brussels horror stories: There's a good selection, starting with host Ryan Heath's frustration at having to send tax payments to two different Brussels communes because the border runs through his kitchen. EU WTF moments of the week — #BrusselsSoWhite and David Davis foot-in-mouth disease: Brussels is one of Europe’s most diverse cities, but the EU's decision-making elite is 99 percent white. The podcast panel ponders what that means — and asks what it feels like for people of color working in Brussels. And what, if anything, should people in the EU bubble do about it? Meanwhile the U.K. Brexit secretary is told to think through the reality that everyone in Brussels speaks English, and remember it when he plays to his Brexit base at home.