Above Avalon

In this episode, we take a closer look at the accessory market and the driving factors behind Apple's decision to continue down the path of selling iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch accessories. We then tackle the debate that has been building in recent months over questionable Apple design decisions when it comes to certain accessories including the Magic Mouse 2, Apple Pencil, and iPhone Smart Battery Case. Upon further examination, we end up with an explantation for what may really be going on inside Apple. These accessories serve as a vital piece to a puzzle involving Apple, Jony Ive, design, and personal technology. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com.

Apple management has relied on various product theories over the years to explain its product portfolio. In this episode, we go over these theories, including Apple's newest product theory as recently explained by Phil Schiller. This "Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products," as I term it, gives both goals and descriptions for each of Apple's product categories. We use this theory to reach three important takeaways about Apple's future product plans. We conclude with a brief discussion of my "Peak iPad Mini" theory and why the product has seen its best days. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com.

The new Apple TV stands out from Apple's other products. In this episode, we discuss the Apple TV and the path taken to get to today's version, its three most important features from a strategic perspective, and where it can fit into our lives in the future. Additional discussion topics include why it's not likely Apple will change its mind and ship an Apple-branded television and where Apple obtains the most value from an Apple TV box. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com.

Over the past four months, Apple has spent more than $300 million quietly purchasing or leasing land in North San Jose. In this episode, we review these land transactions and possible reasons behind the deals. We then discuss why all signs point to an Apple Car R&D facility as the most likely reason for Apple's North San Jose activity. After going over some of the data used to reach this conclusion, we take a broader look at Apple's growth trends and what they may mean for Apple's culture. We conclude with how a North San Jose R&D facility may fit structurally within Apple's organization as well as its connection to Apple Campus 2. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com.

Tim Cook and Luca Maestri were busy buying back AAPL shares this past summer. In this episode, we take a closer look at Apple's share buyback program. We answer three questions: Why is Apple buying back its stock? How is Apple buying back stock? Does it make sense for Apple to buy back its stock? We then focus on Apple's record pace of stock buyback this past August and September and what it suggests about management's view on Apple's future. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com

An Apple's earnings report represents a snapshot of how business has performed over the previous three months. In this week's episode, instead of going over all of the numbers and details from Apple's 4Q15 earnings report, we ask a very simple question: How is Apple doing? By looking at the iPhone, iPad, Mac, and Apple Watch, we reach some conclusions regarding how Apple is doing in its quest to make technology more personal. We also briefly discuss 4Q15 and 2016 financial trends, including slowing growth metrics. We conclude with my grand theory on what is happening to Apple in today's society and where the most risk to Apple resides. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com.

The smartphone industry is once again showing signs of change. The speed at which the U.S. has embraced annual smartphone upgrades, in addition to the new smartphone landscape in China, show that the market is not static or set in stone. In this episode, we go over the three goals that comprise Apple's iPhone mission. What are the things that drive Apple's long-term vision for iPhone? We discuss how Apple thinks about personal technology, cheap vs. used iPhones, and keeping the iPhone experience alive. We conclude with a brief discussion on Apple's upcoming earnings and why these quarterly reports have taken on a different feel lately. More specific expectations for iPhone and Apple Watch unit sales are also referenced. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com

Apple has thrust the topic of design into today's society. In Episode 38, we take a closer look at how design can marginalize industries and in the process change the world. After briefly discussing what constitutes good design, we use the iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch as case studies for how Apple positions design as a way to alter an industry's value proposition. We also connect good design to the start-up mentality found with Project Titan (Episode 36) to explain Apple's secrets to success. Additional commentary found in this episode includes Dieter Rams' 10 principles of good design, Elon Musk's recent criticism of Apple resulting from frustration, and reasons why good design needs to include a high level of risk. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com

The Apple Watch was unveiled to the world a year ago. Since that time, expectations for the first new product category in the Tim Cook/Jony Ive era have seen a complete reversal. What was once deemed Apple's next big product after the iPhone is now looked at as a toy that missed the mark. In this episode, I take a closer look at the drivers behind this dramatic shift in expectations and the trends taking place that suggest many are underestimating the Apple Watch. Not only does the Apple Watch have potential and promise in a world where the iPhone is our most important computer, but Apple's Watch retail rollout, revised marketing strategy, and focus on watch bands reveal that the Watch is misunderstood and greatly underestimated. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com.

There continues to be a debate over what makes Apple so successful. While some may think the answer remains elusive, looking at the way Apple is building Project Titan will help provide clues and answers as to how Apple thinks about success. The more important discussion takes place not by focusing on certain technologies or industry data, but by looking at the ingredients required to build great teams. We compare Apple Car development to the way the iPhone and Apple Watch were developed to note both similarities and differences. We conclude with some of my observations as to where Project Titan may proceed and how it may look in the future. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com.

Along with launching new iPhones, Apple began a new service in the U.S. called the iPhone Upgrade Program. Episode 35 takes a closer look at the program and what it was like to purchase an iPhone 6s Plus through the new service. After discussing some of the lesser-known details of the plan, I then look at how leasing instead of buying iPhones impacts Apple. Ultimately, leasing and upgrading iPhones every year has a major impact on the iPhone development cycle, a cycle which I view as similar to the one Pixar uses when developing films. We conclude with a talk on the financial implications of leasing phones including why revenue may be deferred and how residual iPhone values could change due to grey market supply/demand.

This episode begins with some of my observations from Apple's latest keynote from the perspective of being a first-time attendee. With only three public events in 2015, this latest keynote was pretty important. Instead of covering a laundry list of details and new features/products from the keynote, I take a step back and look for clues from the past three keynotes to see where Apple is headed in the coming years. We are entering a new Apple era. The iPhone's growing power, apps, and the changing defintion of work will lead Apple to create new platforms that allow personal technology to guide more of our lives beyond just the iPhone.

I am getting ready to fly out to San Francisco for the Apple event. In this episode, we begin by discussing the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium and why it is such an intriguing venue. Next, we go over the big picture themes for the upcoming event including new iPads, iPhones, and Apple TV. We conclude the episode by discussing news that Apple is thinking about getting into original video programming. Instead of thinking of reasons why it makes sense, the focus should be on the reasons it would be a mistake and why Apple may have slightly different plans in place for original video content involving YouTube content creators.

Episode 32 takes a look at three topics impacting Apple this past week. We kick things off by going over Best Buy's earnings report and news that Apple Watch demand was so strong that its rollout has been accelerated. There may be some lessons to learn about Apple Watch retail. We next talk about news that Jeff Bezos has decided to curtail his consumer hardware ambitions and what it may mean for the smartphone and tablet space. The episode concludes with some perspective on the cable bundle and how Apple can rethink the bundle to fit into today's mobile world.

There is something about the iPad that just doesn't sit right with me. The iPad is still selling at the pace of 10 million units a quarter, but broader trends point to specific use cases being preferred over others. In episode 31, I go over the latest trends in the tablet market, why I still have concerns about iPad's future, and why a new form factor is needed at the high-end of the market to regain relevancy. Tablet computing was sold as the future of computing. However, the iPad's future needs to embrace a world where the iPhone is the most important computing device in our lives.