Future of Life Institute Podcast

There exist many facts about the nature of reality which stand at odds with our commonly held intuitions and experiences of the world. Ultimately, there is a relativity of the simultaneity of events and there is no universal "now." Are these facts baked into our experience of the world? Or are our experiences and intuitions at odds with these facts? When we consider this, the origins of our mental models, and what modern physics and cosmology tell us about the nature of reality, we are beckoned to identify our commonly held experiences and intuitions, to analyze them in the light of modern science and philosophy, and to come to new implicit, explicit, and experiential understandings of reality. In his book Cosmological Koans: A Journey to the Heart of Physical Reality, FLI co-founder Anthony Aguirre explores the nature of space, time, motion, quantum physics, cosmology, the observer, identity, and existence itself through Zen koans fueled by science and designed to elicit questions, experiences, and conceptual shifts in the reader. The universe can be deeply counter-intuitive at many levels and this conversation, rooted in Anthony's book, is an attempt at exploring this problem and articulating the contemporary frontiers of science and philosophy. Topics discussed include: -What is skillful of a synergy of Zen and scientific reasoning -The history and philosophy of science -The role of the observer in science and knowledge -The nature of information -What counts as real -The world in and of itself and the world we experience as populated by our concepts and models of it -Identity in human beings and future AI systems -Questions of how identity should evolve -Responsibilities and open questions associated with architecting life 3.0 You can find the podcast page, including the transcript, here: https://futureoflife.org/2019/10/31/cosmological-koans-a-journey-to-the-heart-of-physical-reality-with-anthony-aguirre/

Carbon emissions account for about 50% of warming, yet carbon overwhelmingly dominates the climate change discussion. On Episode 19 of Not Cool, Ariel is joined by Ilissa Ocko for a closer look at the non-carbon causes of climate change — like methane, sulphur dioxide, and an aerosol known as black carbon — that are driving the other 50% of warming.  Ilissa is a senior climate scientist with the Environmental Defense Fund and an expert on short-lived climate pollutants. She explains how these non-carbon pollutants affect the environment, where they’re coming from, and why they’ve received such little attention relative to carbon. She also discusses a major problem with the way we model climate impacts over 100-year time scales, the barriers to implementing a solution, and more. Topics discussed include: -Anthropogenic aerosols -Non-CO2 climate forcers: black carbon, methane, etc. -Warming vs. cooling pollutants -Environmental impacts of methane emissions -Modeling methane vs. carbon -Why we need to look at climate impacts on different timescales -Why we shouldn't geoengineer with cooling aerosols -How we can reduce methane emissions

In many ways, the global carbon budget is like any other budget. There’s a maximum amount we can spend, and it must be allocated to various countries and various needs. But how do we determine how much carbon each country can emit? Can developing countries grow their economies without increasing their emissions? And if a large portion of China’s emissions come from products  made for American and European consumption, who’s to blame for those emissions? On episode 18 of Not Cool, Ariel is joined by Glen Peters, Research Director at the Center for International Climate Research (CICERO) in Oslo. Glen explains the components that make up the carbon budget, the complexities of its calculation, and its implications for climate policy and mitigation efforts. He also discusses how emissions are allocated to different countries, how emissions are related to economic growth, what role China plays in all of this, and more. Topics discussed include: -Global carbon budget -Carbon cycle -Mitigation -Calculating carbon footprints -Allocating emissions -Equity issues in allocation and climate policy -U.S.-China trade war -Emissions from fossil fuels -Land use change -Uncertainties in estimates -Greenhouse gas inventories -Reporting requirements for developed vs. developing nations -Emissions trends -Negative emissions -Policies and individual actions

It’s time to get creative in the fight against climate change, and machine learning can help us do that. Not Cool episode 17 continues our discussion of “Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning,” a nearly 100 page report co-authored by 22 researchers from some of the world’s top AI institutes. Today, Ariel talks to Natasha Jaques and Tegan Maharaj, the respective authors of the report’s “Tools for Individuals” and “Tools for Society” chapters. Natasha and Tegan explain how machine learning can help individuals lower their carbon footprints and aid politicians in implementing better climate policies. They also discuss uncertainty in climate predictions, the relative price of green technology, and responsible machine learning development and use. Topics discussed include: -Reinforcement learning -Individual carbon footprints -Privacy concerns -Residential electricity use -Asymmetrical uncertainty -Natural language processing and sentiment analysis -Multi-objective optimization and multi-criteria decision making -Hedonic pricing -Public goods problems -Evolutionary game theory -Carbon offsets -Nuclear energy -Interdisciplinary collaboration -Descriptive vs. prescriptive uses of ML

How can artificial intelligence, and specifically machine learning, be used to combat climate change? In an ambitious recent report, machine learning researchers provided a detailed overview of the ways that their work can be applied to both climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. The massive collaboration, titled “Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning,” involved 22 authors from 16 of the world's top AI institutions.  On Not Cool episodes 16 and 17, Ariel speaks directly to some of these researchers about their specific contributions, as well as the paper's significance more widely. Today, she’s joined by lead author David Rolnick; Priya Donti, author of the electricity systems chapter; Lynn Kaack, author of the transportation chapter and co-author of the buildings and cities chapter; and Kelly Kochanski, author of the climate prediction chapter. David, Priya, Lynn, and Kelly discuss the origins of the paper, the solutions it proposes, the importance of this kind of interdisciplinary work, and more. Topics discussed include: -Translating data to action -Electricity systems -Transportation -Buildings and cities -Climate prediction -Adaptation -Demand response -Climate informatics -Accelerated science -Climate finance -Responses to paper -Next steps -Challenges

Despite the global scale of the climate crisis, its impacts will vary drastically at the local level. Not Cool Episode 15 looks at the unique struggles facing different communities — both human and non-human — and the importance of equity in climate adaptation. Ariel is joined by Astrid Caldas, a senior climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, to discuss the types of climate adaptation solutions we need and how we can implement them. She also talks about biodiversity loss, ecological grief, and psychological barriers to change. Topics discussed include: -Climate justice and equity in climate adaptation -How adaptation differs for different communities -Local vs. larger scale solutions  -Potential adaptation measures and how to implement them -Active vs. passive information -Adaptation for non-human species -How changes in biodiversity will affect humans -Impact of climate change on indigenous and front line communities

As the world nears the warming limit set forth by international agreement, carbon emissions have become a costly commodity. Not Cool episode 14 examines the rapidly expanding domain of carbon finance, along with the wider economic implications of the changing climate. Ariel is joined by Filippo Berardi, an environmental management and international development specialist at the Global Environment Facility (GEF). Filippo explains the international carbon market, the economic risks of not addressing climate change, and the benefits of a low carbon economy. He also discusses where international funds can best be invested, what it would cost to fully operationalize the Paris Climate Agreement, and how the fall of the Soviet Union impacted carbon finance at the international level. Topics discussed include: -UNFCCC: funding, allocation of resources -Cap and trade system vs. carbon tax -Emission trading -Carbon offsets -Planetary carbon budget -Economic risks of not addressing climate change -Roles for public sector vs. private sector -What a low carbon economy would look like

What is ecosystem-based adaptation, and why should we be implementing it? The thirteenth episode of Not Cool explores how we can conserve, restore, and manage natural ecosystems in ways that also help us adapt to the impacts of climate change. Ariel is joined by Val Kapos, Head of the Climate Change and Biodiversity Programme at UN Environment’s World Conservation Monitoring Center, who explains the benefits of ecosystem-based adaptation along with some of the strategies for executing it. Val also describes how ecosystem-based adaption is being used today, why it’s an effective strategy for developed and developing nations alike, and what could motivate more communities to embrace it. Topics discussed include: -Importance of biodiversity -Ecosystem-based vs. engineered approaches to adaptation -Potential downsides/risks of ecosystem-based adaptation -Linking ecosystem-based adaptation to other societal objectives -Obstacles to implementation -Private sector acceptance of ecosystem-based adaptation -National Determined Contributions -Importance of stakeholder involvement

Stuart Russell is one of AI's true pioneers and has been at the forefront of the field for decades. His expertise and forward thinking have culminated in his newest work, Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control. The book is a cornerstone piece, alongside Superintelligence and Life 3.0, that articulates the civilization-scale problem we face of aligning machine intelligence with human goals and values. Not only is this a further articulation and development of the AI alignment problem, but Stuart also proposes a novel solution which bring us to a better understanding of what it will take to create beneficial machine intelligence.  Topics discussed in this episode include: -Stuart's intentions in writing the book -The history of intellectual thought leading up to the control problem -The problem of control -Why tool AI won't work -Messages for different audiences -Stuart's proposed solution to the control problem You can find the page for this podcast here: https://futureoflife.org/2019/10/08/ai-alignment-podcast-human-compatible-artificial-intelligence-and-the-problem-of-control-with-stuart-russell/ Important timestamps:  0:00 Intro 2:10 Intentions and background on the book 4:30 Human intellectual tradition leading up to the problem of control 7:41 Summary of the structure of the book 8:28 The issue with the current formulation of building intelligent machine systems 10:57 Beginnings of a solution 12:54 Might tool AI be of any help here? 16:30 Core message of the book 20:36 How the book is useful for different audiences 26:30 Inferring the preferences of irrational agents 36:30 Why does this all matter? 39:50 What is really at stake? 45:10 Risks and challenges on the path to beneficial AI 54:55 We should consider laws and regulations around AI 01:03:54 How is this book differentiated from those like it?

We know that climate change has serious implications for human health, including the spread of vector-borne disease and the global increase of malnutrition. What we don’t yet know is how expansive these health issues could become or how these problems will impact social stability. On episode 12 of Not Cool, Ariel is joined by Kris Ebi, professor at the University of Washington and founding director of its Center for Health and the Global Environment. Kris explains how increased CO2 affects crop quality, why malnutrition might alter patterns of human migration, and what we can do to reduce our vulnerability to these impacts. She also discusses changing weather patterns, the expanding geographic range of disease-carrying insects, and more. Topics discussed include: -Human health and social stability -Climate related malnutrition -Knowns and unknowns -Extreme events and changing weather patterns -Vulnerability and exposure -Steps to reduce vulnerability -Vector-borne disease -Endemic vs. epidemic malaria -Effects of increased CO2 on crop quality -Actions individuals can take

While a single extreme weather event can wreak considerable havoc, it's becoming increasingly clear that such events often don't occur in isolation. Not Cool Episode 11 focuses on compound weather events: what they are, why they’re dangerous, and how we've failed to prepare for them. Ariel is joined by Jakob Zscheischler, an Earth system scientist at the University of Bern, who discusses the feedback processes that drive compound events, the impacts they're already having, and the reasons we've underestimated their gravity. He also explains how extreme events can reduce carbon uptake, how human impacts can amplify climate hazards, and why we need more interdisciplinary research. Topics discussed include: -Carbon cycle -Climate-driven changes in vegetation -Land-atmosphere feedbacks -Extreme events -Compound events and why they’re under researched -Risk assessment -Spatially compounding impacts -Importance of working across disciplines -Important policy measures

One of the most obvious markers of climate change has been the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in recent years. In the tenth episode of Not Cool, Ariel takes a closer look at the research linking climate change and extreme events — and, in turn, linking extreme events and socioeconomic patterns. She’s joined by Stephanie Herring, a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration whose work on extreme event attribution has landed her on Foreign Policy magazine’s list of Top 100 Global Thinkers. Stephanie discusses the changes she’s witnessed in the field of attribution research, the concerning trends that have begun to emerge, the importance of data in the decision-making process, and more. Topics discussed include: -Extreme events & how they’re defined -Attribution research -Risk management -Selection bias in climate research -Insurance analysis -Compound events and impacts -Knowns and unknowns

Most of us working on catastrophic and existential threats focus on trying to prevent them — not on figuring out how to survive the aftermath. But what if, despite everyone’s best efforts, humanity does undergo such a catastrophe? This month’s podcast is all about what we can do in the present to ensure humanity’s survival in a future worst-case scenario. Ariel is joined by Dave Denkenberger and Joshua Pearce, co-authors of the book Feeding Everyone No Matter What, who explain what would constitute a catastrophic event, what it would take to feed the global population, and how their research could help address world hunger today. They also discuss infrastructural preparations, appropriate technology, and why it’s worth investing in these efforts. Topics discussed include: -Causes of global catastrophe -Planning for catastrophic events -Getting governments onboard -Application to current crises -Alternative food sources -Historical precedence for societal collapse -Appropriate technology -Hardwired optimism -Surprising things that could save lives -Climate change and adaptation -Moral hazards -Why it’s in the best interest of the global wealthy to make food more available

In her speech at Monday’s UN Climate Action Summit, Greta Thunberg told a roomful of global leaders, “The world is waking up.” Yet the science, as she noted, has been clear for decades. Why has this awakening taken so long, and what can we do now to help it along? On Episode 9 of Not Cool, Ariel is joined by Andy Revkin, acclaimed environmental journalist and founding director of the new Initiative on Communication and Sustainability at Columbia University’s Earth Institute. Andy discusses the information gaps that have left us vulnerable, the difficult conversations we need to be having, and the strategies we should be using to effectively communicate climate science. He also talks about inertia, resilience, and creating a culture that cares about the future. Topics discussed include: -Inertia in the climate system -The expanding bullseye of vulnerability -Managed retreat -Information gaps -Climate science literacy levels -Renewable energy in conservative states -Infrastructural inertia -Climate science communication strategies -Increasing resilience -Balancing inconvenient realities with productive messaging -Extreme events

On the eighth episode of Not Cool, Ariel tackles the topic of climate policy from the local level to the federal. She's joined by Suzanne Jones: the current mayor of Boulder, Colorado, but also public policy veteran and climate activist. Suzanne explains the climate threats facing communities like Boulder, the measures local governments can take to combat the crisis, and the ways she’d like to see the federal government step up. She also discusses the economic value of going green, the importance of promoting equity in climate solutions, and more. Topics discussed include: -Paris Climate Agreement -Roles for local/state/federal governments -Surprise costs of climate change -Equality/equity in climate solutions -Increasing community engagement -Nonattainment zones -Electrification of transportation sector -Municipalization of electric utility -Challenges, roadblocks, and what she’d like to see accomplished -Affordable, sustainable development -What individuals should be doing -Carbon farming and sustainable agriculture