Charter Trust - Global Market Update show

Charter Trust - Global Market Update

Summary: Douglas Tengdin, CFA Chief Investment Officer of Charter Trust Company provides daily commentary on global markets and other economic topics. Drawing on 20 years of investment experience, Mr. Tengdin tackles timely trends in a direct and forthright manner.

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 Detroit Renaissance? | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:00

What can investors learn from Detroit?Detroit was the worst of the worst. A city whose population had fallen almost 2/3rds over the last half century. A place where whole neighborhoods have been turned into urban prairie. It’s bankruptcy proceedings have been epic. What can we learn?Source: WikipediaFirst, do your homework. When Detroit filed for Chapter 9 protection, no one should have been surprised. The city’s decline has been evident for a long time. The last time Detroit’s population grew was in the 1940s. If people don’t live somewhere, they’re not going to pay the taxes necessary to support its debt.Second, one bankruptcy does not a meltdown make. In late 2010 there had been a lot of prophecies of doom for the muni market, punctuated by Meredith Whitney’s estimate of “hundreds of billions” of defaults over the next year on national TV. While her prediction may have been especially stupid, many other commentators had also called for a collapse. It didn’t happen. Muni bonds are generally safe, supported by stable tax and fee revenue. Even a basket-case like Detroit paid billions in obligations on schedule—until they ran out of money.But third, the past is not always prologue. Just because someone used to have money doesn’t mean they’ll have enough in the future. See number one above.Finally, never underestimate the power of politics. The two principal antagonists in the bankruptcy proceeding were pensioners and bondholders, overseen by Judge Stephen Rhodes. A preliminary reorganization plan was affirmed earlier this month. $7 billion in debt will be erased; pensions will be trimmed modestly; bondholders will receive 74 cents on the dollar. Before this, bondholder claims have always had priority. But financial seniority doesn’t secured the debt. The political power of the pensions held significant sway. They didn’t get everything, however. Even though those pensions were protected under Michigan law, when a city files for bankruptcy Federal law prevails.Detroit’s bankruptcy has been an exclamation point—a coda on the long ballad of the Financial Crisis that included the automakers’ retooling. It gives the City a fresh start. But can Detroit really turn around? That’s a different question. Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA Chief Investment Officer Phone: 603-224-1350 Leave a comment if you have any questions—I read them all!Follow me on Twitter @GlobalMarketUpdwww.chartertrust.com • www.moneybasicsradio.com www.globalmarketupdate.net

 Rising Sun? | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:00

Is Japan in a recession? It is if you believe the most recent news. Japan’s economy contracted last quarter, after falling the quarter before that. Two successive quarters of declining GDP are usually enough to be considered a recession. The bad news led Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to delay another sales tax hike scheduled for next year, and to call for new parliamentary elections as a sort-of national referendum on his economic policies, “Abenomics.” But if this is a recession, it’s unlike most downturns. Their unemployment rate is currently 3.6% down from 4.1% a year ago and one of the lowest in the world. Source: FREDThe recent bad economic news was probably caused by an inventory correction, not fundamental economic weakness. Abenomics is a combination of fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, and structural reforms. The last sales tax increase was supposed to assure the bond market that Japan had the will to address its gargantuan accumulated debt, currently 230% of its economy. But the tax hike caused consumers first to accelerate purchases, then defer them, and now for producers to cut their inventories. No matter where the economy is, people respond to incentives. It’s not enough to deflate the currency. Japanese taxes penalize second incomes, discouraging households from augmenting their earnings. Japan’s economy is a witch’s brew of advanced technology, special incentives, and declining demographics. Breaking out of a deflationary spiral is hard. We all hope Japan can do it. Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA Chief Investment Officer Phone: 603-224-1350 Leave a comment if you have any questions—I read them all! Follow me on Twitter @GlobalMarketUpd www.chartertrust.com • www.moneybasicsradio.com www.globalmarketupdate.net

 Peak Oil, Trough Oil | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:00

What’s up with oil prices?Or, what’s down? When prices hit $145 / barrel in 2008 there was lots of talk of “peak oil.” After all, prices had risen from under $20 / barrel less than 10 years before and there was no supply-shock driving prices. The impetus was growing demand in China, which had joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. In 2004 prices broke out of their two-decade range. No one knew how high they would go. Global demand was growing faster than global supply. All the cheap stuff had been found, it was thought. Source: WikipediaThen came the fracking revolution and the reemergence of the US as a major producer. US oil production surged by over 60%. When the Saudis decided this summer to keep pumping at their maximum rate, markets suddenly realized the world was awash in oil. Prices have fallen almost $40 the past three months.Inflation-Adjusted Crude Oil Prices:Source: MacrotrendsWill prices stay down? With winter coming on, we all want to know. It depends on how producers respond. Part of the reason prices have fallen is our economy is less energy-intensive. Over the past 10 years we’ve purchased more efficient cars and furnaces. With lower prices US production has fallen 5% as some North Dakota fields go offline. That’s not much of a shock. A real test will come if these prices lead to an economic crisis and debt default in Russia. They’re one of the world’s largest producers. Now that would be a shock!When prices rose, we learned that the cure for higher prices was higher prices. Now that prices are down, the cure for falling prices will be … falling prices. Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA Chief Investment Officer Phone: 603-224-1350 Leave a comment if you have any questions—I read them all!Follow me on Twitter @GlobalMarketUpdwww.chartertrust.com • www.moneybasicsradio.com www.globalmarketupdate.net

 R-E-S-P-E-C-T | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:00

What do workers want?A recent study of over 19,000 employees and managers looked at what keeps people from being more satisfied and productive at work. The answer was not surprising: people perform best when their physical, emotional, mental, and spiritual needs are met. When we feel energized, appreciated, focused, and purposeful, we’re happier and more effective in our jobs.Source: Plantescompany.comWhat is surprising is how important these factors are to the bottom line. When all four areas are covered, employees feel over twice as engaged in their company’s business. And firms with the most engaged workers are 22% more profitable than those with the least engaged workers, across all kinds of industries.The message? No one lives by bread alone—we’re complex creatures with a full spectrum of needs. Compensation is important, but it’s part of a complex web of benefits and responsibilities often called “company culture.”The takeaway for investors is to look beyond the bottom line. Read management’s discussion of its businesses. Listen to a conference call. Do they look out for their workers? Do they invest in their renewal? Is productivity—sales or cash-flow per employee—gradually rising, or does it jump around with every financial transaction?Respect is the secret sauce of business success. Everyone desires to be respected and to be respectable, to “wear a dignity that is deserved.” It’s one reason we like sports, where people rise or fall by their own merit. As Confucius wrote, it’s respect that separates us from the beasts. Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA Chief Investment Officer Phone: 603-224-1350 Leave a comment if you have any questions—I read them all!Follow me on Twitter @GlobalMarketUpdwww.chartertrust.com • www.moneybasicsradio.com www.globalmarketupdate.net

 Herds, Bubbles and Human Nature | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:00

Why is investing so hard?Investors have to wrestle with many issues—economics, financial reporting, asset structure, valuation—but perhaps the most difficult factor they face is their own nature. People are naturally social creatures, something Aristotle noted 2500 years ago. We like to do what other people are doing. Going against the crowd can feel like standing up against a herd of charging buffalo. Source: South Dakota Department of TourismBut strategists have long seen the advantages of going against prevailing opinion. “Never follow the crowd,” Bernard Baruch says. Sir John Templeton put it this way: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” We need to buy when most people are pessimistic and sell when they are optimistic.The past 15 years have seen this borne out twice: once during the internet boom and bust, and then again during the housing boom and bust. Now there seems to be a bubble in “bubble spotting”: looking for investments inflated by optimism and leverage, to avoid the fallout from when they pop.Source: TwitterBut the very fact that people are looking for bubbles means bubbles are less likely to form. We may be social animals, but other investors are our competitors.That’s why it’s so dangerous to be part of a herd. It may seem that there is safety in numbers, but more often than not, the herd is eventually headed over a cliff. Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA Chief Investment Officer Phone: 603-224-1350 Leave a comment if you have any questions—I read them all!Follow me on Twitter @GlobalMarketUpdwww.chartertrust.com • www.moneybasicsradio.com www.globalmarketupdate.net

 Bad News/Good News | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:01

Where are newspapers going?Newspapers have been reduced to a shadow of their former selves. Twenty years ago a couple of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs came to The Washington Post Company looking for money for their search-engine startup—Google. A few months ago the Post itself was bought out by a tech-angel, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos.Source: Britannica.comNew technologies are radically altering the way we communicate. In their heyday, major news organizations were economic and cultural behemoths. Everyone watched Walter Cronkite tell us, “That’s the way it is.” Papers and networks maintained huge corps of correspondents around the world. They bestrode the globe like a colossus. Now, news organizations are folding. What happened?In a word, the internet. Google’s advertising revenue is now twice that of the entire newspaper industry:Source: Brookings.eduInstead of buying mass-market exposure, marketers now target specific segments. A retailer selling sheets pays for an ad that just goes to people who searched for sheets in the last week. Those ads are a lot more effective than traditional vehicles. Nearly 20% of ad-spending still goes to print media, but that’s probably too much—kept there by inertia and nostalgia.The other online engine that’s killing papers is Craigslist. Why pay for a classified when you can list it for free? There’s still a market for old-line media, but it’s aging. After he bought the Washington Post, Bezos commented that the average age of print-readers goes up about one year every year. You can see where this is going.But while internet has destroyed depth it has created breadth. Where there were once only a few giant news outlets there are literally hundreds of focused news-engines: ESPN, Politico, and TheStreet.com are every bit as powerful in sports, politics, and finance as CBS once was. Segmentation has created specialization. And Facebook and Twitter deliver what you want when you want it right to your pocket.The news business isn’t dying, but it is changing. James Madison once noted that the advancement and diffusion of knowledge is the only guardian of true liberty. He surely didn’t have YouTube in mind, but with millions of folks now competing for space on our screens, liberty seems to be advancing. Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA Chief Investment Officer Phone: 603-224-1350 Leave a comment if you have any questions—I read them all!Follow me on Twitter @GlobalMarketUpdwww.chartertrust.com • www.moneybasicsradio.com www.globalmarketupdate.net

 Keys, Lights and Investment Success | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:01

Are investors looking for success in the wrong places? There’s an old story about a man searching for something under a streetlight. A policeman comes by and asks what he’s lost. The man replies that his keys are missing and he can’t get back into his house. After a few minutes searching together, the policeman inquires whether the man is sure he lost his keys under the lamp. No, the man replies, he lost them in the park. “Then why are we searching here?” exclaims the officer. “This is where the light is,” replies the man, continuing to search. Source: solarilluminations.com Are investors looking at returns “where the light is”? For years they’ve compared their portfolio results to some benchmark, like the S&P 500 or the Barclay’s Aggregate Bond index. They’ve been encouraged to do this by the investment industry, which often touts its recent results relative to the market. The SEC even requires mutual funds to compare fund performance to an index. And it’s fairly simple to produce a graph of relative performance, like this: Source: Charter Trust Company But you can’t eat relative performance. When the S&P 500 fell 37% in 2008, it was cold comfort for investors to note that their portfolios “only” fell 33%, even though 4% portfolio outperformance is usually a reason to rejoice. But comparing yourself to an index ignores two major issues. First, it ignores risk. One fund manager put it this way: “It’s easy to outperform. Just load up on high-beta stocks. Since the market goes up more often than it goes down, they’ll do better than the market.” Such an approach makes the clients take the risk, while the manager gets the credit. And even more significantly, relative performance ignores what clients really need. And what do they need? That depends on the client. Some need income, some need growth, many need a combination. And almost all clients have a longer time-horizon than the 1, 3, and 5-year comparisons in the literature. Understanding portfolio performance is hard. It requires managers to understand their clients. It doesn’t fit into a neat box. And it’s hard for marketing folks to tout in their latest ad-campaign. But it’s what investors need to see. If you want to find your lost keys, you need to look where you’ve lost them, not where the light is. And if you want to know how your portfolio is doing, compare it to your actual needs—not some arbitrary index.   Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA Chief Investment Officer Phone: 603-224-1350 Leave a comment if you have any questions—I read them all! Follow me on Twitter @GlobalMarketUpd www.chartertrust.com • www.moneybasicsradio.com www.globalmarketupdate.net

 Duck Walking | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:00

Sometimes, there’s no question what something is.If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it’s probably a duck. There’s no ambiguity. Yesterday several news outlets reported that a popular foreign exchange trade site had vanished, along with over $1 billion in account balances.Source: WikipediaInvestors around the world had been assured by video testimonials and consistent returns. The site (secureinvestments.com) showed a Panama address and listed toll-free numbers in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, the UK, and the US. They were responsive via email. But they promised low-risk returns of half a percent to one percent per day. One investor saw his money seem to grow four-fold in only 10 months—a 170% annualized return.Of course you know where this is going. When he sought to withdraw some of these gains, he experienced delays and excuses ranging from tax-law compliance to web-site maintenance. Eventually, the site went offline and never returned, taking his account and more than a billion dollars with it, based on data posted before the site went down.We can sympathize with people trying to earn more than the fraction of a percent that bank deposits pay today, but there’s no free lunch. Absurd returns that would eat the world in a few years can’t continue. This applies to scams like this and Madoff as well as the internet and housing bubbles and even some legitimate hedge funds. Past performance isn’t just not a predictor of future results—it can actually indicate the opposite is coming.The best defense against these kinds of scams is a little common sense: if it looks too good to be true, it probably is. Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA Chief Investment Officer Phone: 603-224-1350 Leave a comment if you have any questions—I read them all!Follow me on Twitter @GlobalMarketUpdwww.chartertrust.com • www.moneybasicsradio.com www.globalmarketupdate.net

 Rabbits, Ducks and Foreign Exchange | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:00

Is this a rabbit or a duck?Source: WikipediaSix global banks agreed to pay a total of about $4 billion yesterday to settle charges that they rigged the foreign exchange markets. Regulators claim some traders set up chat rooms, where they would share order information prior to the daily fix. The story has all the elements of a Hollywood blockbuster: big money, secretive clubs, special lingo, and mob-like threats.Source: Wall Street JournalOnly, maybe not. The forex market is an over-the-counter grab-bag where $5 ½ trillion changes hands every day. When I traded FX 20 years ago banks around the world had terminals where we bought and sold currencies from one another. Over time, we got to know which professionals we could depend on and who to avoid.Sometimes, we knew a customer had a big trade coming up, and we would position ourselves so we wouldn’t get swamped. Looked at one way, we were making sure there was enough liquidity to meet the client’s need. Looked at another way, we were front-running, trading ahead of an expected order flow. Was it a rabbit or a duck? It depends on your perspective, and what you want to see.Some look at global banks and see nothing but a den of thieves—over-privileged amped-up yuppies. Others see professional teams trying to do deals and make things happen. It’s hard to find the details of what is alleged. Maybe that’s because there are ongoing investigations. Or maybe the details could have two interpretations, and one side has told the other not to talk.It’s easy to throw stones when big banks announce big settlements about confusing, complex practices. And banks haven’t exactly covered themselves with glory, recently. But until all the facts are known, it’s best to defer judgment about traders behaving badly. As Edmond Burke once said, when you set yourself up as judge of the world, you risk the laughter of the gods. Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA Chief Investment Officer Phone: 603-224-1350 Leave a comment if you have any questions—I read them all!Follow me on Twitter @GlobalMarketUpdwww.chartertrust.com • www.moneybasicsradio.com www.globalmarketupdate.net

 Inside/Outside/Upside Down | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:00

Do you know what insider trading is? Are you sure?Insider trading is illegal. It’s part of our regulatory landscape. If you’re a corporate insider and have material, nonpublic information about a company’s prospects, you’re not supposed to profit from that information. This applies to insiders and anyone to whom they’ve provided information.Source: FBIThis seems straightforward, but the devil is in the details. What’s material? What’s information? Who’s an insider? Common sense isn’t always that common. The law is based some troubling court cases.The first one is Dirks. Ray Dirks was a stock analyst who received information about a big insurance company: they’d been selling spurious policies to reinsurers and pocketing the cash. Dirks told the SEC and the press about the fraud, but they did nothing. He then told some institutional investors, and the stock fell over 40%. That got the SEC’s attention—they promptly censured Dirks. He fought the sanction all the way to the Supreme Court, which cleared him and noted that for folks to be guilty of insider trading, they need to try to profit from the information. Dirks never made a dime.But the precedent was set: insider trading law isn’t based on a statutory definition but on aggressive action by the SEC. And that’s how they want it. Recently a worker at a company noticed a bunch of limousines at the headquarters and figured a buyout must be happening, so he bought some options on the stock. Most people would say that limos in the parking lot isn’t material, but not the SEC. To them, “material” is anything that could move the stock price. They went after him for insider trading. Again, they lost, but the employee had to time and money defending himself.A vague law allows the regulators to bring as many cases as possible to burnish their own reputations, through settlements and sanctions, without ever having to go to court. Insider trading is wrong. It’s fraud. It shouldn’t be that hard for Congress to define. Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA Chief Investment Officer Phone: 603-224-1350 Leave a comment if you have any questions—I read them all!Follow me on Twitter @GlobalMarketUpdwww.chartertrust.com • www.moneybasicsradio.com www.globalmarketupdate.net

 Inverting Value | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:00

 Tax-inversion is on the rise. What is it? The latest health-care merger highlights the practice of tax-inversion. If Medtronic—based in Minneapolis—buys Covidian—domiciled in Dublin—Medtronic will shift its home-address from the US to Ireland. That will lower the company’s statutory tax rate from 35 to 12 ½ percent.The deal isn’t only about taxes: both companies make and market medical implants like pacemakers and stents. Joining forces would allow them to enjoy economies of scale. But the tax benefits sure help. Ireland’s extensive tax-treaties with the United States and European Union would allow the company to distribute more of its combined cash-flow to shareholders without paying a penalty.This merger wouldn’t be the first tax-inversion deal. Since 1993, dozens of firms have shifted their domicile. On average, these companies have outperformed. The lower rate gives the new company a lot more flexibility. In Medtronic’s case, they estimate they will save some $850 million in taxes annually on a combined $7.3 billion in cashflow—a significant gain to the bottom line.Some say Congress should prohibit such inversion deals. But that probably won’t work. Corporate officers have a fiduciary duty to maximize shareholder return. The US tax code needs reform. If Congress doesn’t fix it, more companies will just invert their taxes away. Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA Chief Investment Officer Hit reply if you have any questions—I read them all!Follow me on Twitter @GlobalMarketUpddirect: 603-252-6509 reception: 603-224-1350www.chartertrust.com • www.moneybasicsradio.com • www.globalmarketupdate.net

 Looking Backwards, Looking Forwards | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:00

Who is Tim Geithner?Tim Geithner was Barak Obama’s Secretary of the Treasury from 2009 to 2012. Prior to that, he was President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York starting in 2003. He played a pivotal role during the Financial Crisis and its aftermath. All told, he spent 23 years working for the Federal Government, mostly in positions that involve economic and financial oversight.His memoire, Stress Test, outlines what he experienced and considered during the crisis. It outlines the distressing and paradoxical nature of  the banking system in a modern economy. The financial system is the economy’s life-blood. Companies need access to credit both as investors and as borrowers. When The Reserve Money Market Fund broke the buck after Lehman failed, the ensuing panic threatened the economy’s financial infrastructure.Shoring up that structure—preventing the collateral damage that could lead to a depression—looks like rewarding arsonists. The big banks created all these sub-prime mortgage-backed securities and CDO-squared bonds; big banks had their capital threatened—and many failed—when those bonds failed to perform as advertised; and the big banks got the big bailouts at the bottom of the slump. How is this fair?But the bailouts weren’t for the benefit of the banks. The bailouts were an efficient way to protect the people and institutions who used the banks, people who had borrowed responsibly and paid their bills on time. And the political grandstanding, hypocrisy, and partisanship didn’t help us address the crisis more effectively. When the building is on fire, it’s not a good time to debate whether the fire truck gets adequate gas-mileage.This financial crisis was less disruptive than many others have been. Of course, we’ll never know how bad it could have gotten if the government had just let everyone fail. But eventually we’ll see if our system can get back to normal. We haven’t gotten there yet.Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA Chief Investment Officer Hit reply if you have any questions—I read them all!Follow me on Twitter @GlobalMarketUpddirect: 603-252-6509 reception: 603-224-1350www.chartertrust.com • www.moneybasicsradio.com • www.globalmarketupdate.net

 Running in Place | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:00

Apparently mice like to run on wheels.Some researchers at the University of Leiden in The Netherlands decided to find out whether rodents in the wild like to exercise. They set up a running wheel in their garden next to a dish of food pellets and chocolate, and trained a motion-sensitive infrared camera on the scene. Over the next three years over 200 thousand animals—mice, rats, shrews, and even frogs—took turns on the wheel. Sometimes they couldn’t wait: one large mouse sent a smaller mouse flying when it climbed on the wheel and started running in the opposite direction.Is this what’s happening in Russia right now? The Russia-China gas deal should be a huge plus for Putin. After all, Russia has the resources; China has the exports; providing 1.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas annually to fuel China’s factories should be a slam-dunk deal. It assures Russia a market and provides clean energy to China. Bankers should be lining up to provide financing.Only, not. Gazprom, the Russian gas monopoly, is so inefficient with its capital investments that this cash-rich business turns out cashflow-negative. Add to this the regular accounting restatements—$100 billion in equity write-downs, some years—and you don’t have an investor-friendly company. It’s no surprise that Gazprom trades at a little less than three times reported earnings, and well below “book.”So Vladimir Putin is considering recapitalizing the company, using his country’s foreign-exchange reserves to buy newly issued shares. Gazprom could then use these funds to pay for new production and pipelines for the China deal. A government recap would be just the latest example of politics and corruption preventing Russia from developing its resources in an efficient, commercially sensible manner. Instead, state funds are ploughed back into state-controlled cronies to support geopolitical dreams.Thus we see a country in the wild climbing onto the bailout hamster wheel: a whole lot of running going nowhere. Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA Chief Investment Officer Hit reply if you have any questions—I read them all!Follow me on Twitter @GlobalMarketUpddirect: 603-252-6509 reception: 603-224-1350www.chartertrust.com • www.moneybasicsradio.com • www.globalmarketupdate.net

 Reading the Future? | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:00

What are people reading?To see where we are going, we need to know where we are. One way to look at our culture is to look at what people are reading. For years, the New York Times’ bestseller list was how we found out what was on peoples’ bookshelves. Retailers would report what was sold, and the Times would aggregate the data.But that data can be manipulated. Authors can buy up their own books to inflate their numbers. Consultants can break up bulk sales to make them look more like retail purchases. But books are changing. More and more books are being read on screens. And another way to measure a work’s popularity is by how many highlights it gets.Many people underline their books. I’m a highlighting addict. Ben Franklin said to never read a book without a pen in your hand. Sometimes I use three or four different colored highlighters. Amazon allows us not only to highlight passages, but to see what other folks have marked as well. (You can turn this feature off if you wish.) And—at least so far—it’s a lot harder to manipulate those numbers.So we can learn a lot from the most highlighted passages and the most highlighted books. What do we see? First, The Hunger Games is all the rage. Eight of the top ten passages are from that trilogy; all three volumes are in the top 15 books. Second, the Bible is really popular on the Kindle: five of the top 20 books are different English translations. And third, people read for lots of reasons, but advice and insight seem to top the list. Self-help books are plentiful, and the most highlighted passages from all genres provide more instruction than information.People are looking for young romance, ancient wisdom, and inspiration. Maybe there’s hope for the future. Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA Chief Investment Officer Hit reply if you have any questions—I read them all!Follow me on Twitter @GlobalMarketUpddirect: 603-252-6509 reception: 603-224-1350www.chartertrust.com • www.moneybasicsradio.com • www.globalmarketupdate.net

 Fear, Greed, and Complacency | File Type: audio/mpeg | Duration: 1:00

Are we near a market top? With the Dow nearing 17,000 and measures of volume and volatility fairly low, many folks are saying that the end of the five-year bull run is near. It’s true that valuations are stretched. The US stock market has nearly tripled since 2009. It’s also true that sentiment indicators show that market bears are harder to find than beach bums in a tuxedo store. But discerning the top of a bull market isn’t like looking at the top of a mountain. You can’t just set your altimeter and declare, “We’re here.”Markets aren’t objective, physical things. They’re the agglomeration of millions of buy, sell, and hold decisions on contingent claims on future cash flows. Sentiment and fundamentals matter, but so do economic growth, inflation, trade, politics, and myriad other factors. The world of human interactions is extremely complex. It’s hard to understand what’s already happened, much less what is going to happen next week, next month, or next year.Like most market participants, we have a forecast of what we expect from the economy and market from year to year. But our investment process doesn’t depend on correctly calling the market’s turns. It’s driven by finding value and structuring portfolios so they have the right combination of return, risk, and other issues for each investor.Bull markets mature on optimism and die on euphoria. Investors seem pretty optimistic right now. But euphoric? That’s impossible to tell. Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA Chief Investment Officer Hit reply if you have any questions—I read them all!Follow me on Twitter @GlobalMarketUpddirect: 603-252-6509 reception: 603-224-1350www.chartertrust.com • www.moneybasicsradio.com • www.globalmarketupdate.net

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