Hard Currency

As debate over the fiscal cliff continues and doubts linger over the US’s economic recovery, the market is unsure how to react. Clive Dennis, head of currencies at Schroders, thinks there's a high chance that the US will go over the fiscal cliff. He talks to currencies correspondent Alice Ross about the impact of this scenario, and the release of payroll figures, on the greenback. Also under discussion is the euro, which is back below $1.30, on expectations of an interest-rate cut by the ECB early next year.

Despite the threat of a sovereign downgrade and concerns over UK growth, Geoff Kendrick, FX strategist at Nomura, tells FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross that there's still hope for sterling. Also under discussion is whether demand for the pound as a haven in the eurozone will continue, and the Aussie dollar ahead of a probable interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

As Japan prepares for an early election on December 16, the yen has come under pressure, falling against the dollar. Will this trend continue into next year? Ian Stannard, head of European FX strategy at Morgan Stanley, joins Alphaville reporter David Keohane to debate the effect of domestic policy and trade on the yen, as well as its attractiveness as a funding currency. Also under discussion is the euro's outlook for the next 12 months, after showing notable resilience in 2012.

With event risk affecting currencies, the concern is not what you sell, but what you buy, according to Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at BNY Mellon. He joins Alphaville reporter David Keohane to discuss which safe havens investors can retreat to, considering the pressures on the dollar from the fiscal cliff and the impact of upcoming elections on the yen. Also under discussion is whether foreign exchange reserves will continue to grow in the next year.

In a week dominated by the fallout from the US presidential election, and the Chinese leadership transition FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross talks to Axel Merk, president of Merk Investments about the outlook for the US dollar and Chinese renminbi.

Following the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programme in September, there were predictions of a rise in appetite for emerging markets currencies, yet this has failed to materialise. Benoit Anne, head of emerging markets strategy at Soc Gen, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross to talk about current sentiment towards EM currencies. Also under discussion is the rise of the Mexican peso, and whether its popularity is shortlived.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss the pound, which has risen after higher than expected UK growth figures, as well as whether the Bank of Japan will launch a full scale currency intervention at its upcoming meeting.

David Bloom, global head of FX strategy at HSBC, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss the future of forex trading as the currency runes become increasingly hard to read and investors shy away from the market, as well as the connection between the euro's performance and a Spanish bailout.

Geoff Kendrick, FX strategist at Nomura, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross, to discuss talk of a possible intervention by the Bank of Japan to weaken the yen, and how the Aussie dollar, which has been suffering in recent weeks, will react to the latest batch of Chinese economic data.

Chris Turner, FX strategist at ING, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross, to discuss whether the upcoming International Monetary Fund meeting in Tokyo will affect sentiment on haven currencies such as the dollar and yen, and what's in store for the Canadian dollar after its recent popularity among traders.

Geoffrey Yu, foreign exchange strategist at UBS, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss the fallout on the currencies markets from the Spanish budget – and whether a bailout is now more or less likely – as well as when the focus will swing back towards Greece. Also, what is the QE3 effect on the commodities currencies?

Michael Hewson, senior market analyst at CMC markets, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss the likelihood of a new outbreak of the currency wars and why Japan, not Brazil, has most to complain about from more quantitative easing in the US.

Peter Kinsella, senior currency strategist at Commerzbank, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross to assess the impact of more quantitative easing from the US federal reserve on the currency markets and is the worst now past for the euro?

Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank, joins Alice Ross, FT currencies correspondent, to discuss how the European Central Bank’s confirmation of plans to buy government bonds in peripheral markets is supporting the euro – even if no actual action has been taken. Also, is the Federal Reserve likely to introduce more quantitative easing and just what is going on with the Swiss franc?

This week Alice Ross, the FT’s currencies correspondent, is joined by Javier Corominas, head of research and fx strategy at Record Currency Management, to discuss what’s driving the pound and euro weakness as the Draghi effect fades. They also look at the strength of the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen.