The Disciplined Investor

No Dead Fed – Hikes still on the table - although markets don't agree. A quick look back and ahead as banks are in trouble. It is getting a little silly... Our Guest, Howard Silverblatt – SP Global on earnings and the real stats to understand Howard Silverblatt (@hsilverb) is Senior Industry Analyst, Index Investment Strategy, for S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI). In addition to general market research and commentary, Howard is responsible for the statistical analysis of S&P DJI’s family of U.S. Indices, including the world’s most followed stock market index, the S&P 500®. Howard has been with Standard & Poor’s since 1977, and has held various analytic, business development, and product positions. He joined S&P Indices in 1983 as an editor, and has since received numerous corporate and industry awards, most notably for his work on the creation and development of Standard & Poor’s core earnings and Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®). Howard is widely quoted in top tier news publications around the world, providing in-depth analysis and information on a myriad of topics impacting the investment industry. Howard graduated with a B.S. in Business Management from Syracuse University. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (MSFT), (GLD), (AAPL)

The banking Crisis is NOT over – no surprise here. Earnings for mega names coming in better than expected – stocks zooming. Sinkhole Alert issued – what does that even mean? And a conversation about M2 Money Supply. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (AMZN), (FRC), (META, (MSFT)

420 – came and went – should we make it a national holiday! Taxes done?  – in the mail and all finished - right? Markets are busy digesting earnings and my very  interesting meeting with a Fed big shot. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (MCD), (NFLX), (TSLA), (LEN), (DHI), (IBKR)

Inflation receding, like the floods in my neighborhood. Fed calls for a mild recession. Earnings season begins – banks...batter up! Guest – Frank Curzio – Curzio research and Wall Street Unplugged Podcast. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Frank Curzio can be reached by email at frank@curzioresearch.com Frank Curzio is an equity analyst with close to two decades of experience covering small- and mid-cap stocks. Check out his newsletters. (Free trial subscriptions available) He has been the editor of several well respected newsletters with major companies as well on of the top performers with TheStreet.com where he significantly outperformed the markets during his tenure. He was also a research analyst for Jim Cramer. Frank is the host of Wall Street Unplugged. Frank has been a guest on various media outlets including Fox Business News, CNBC's The Kudlow Report and CNBC's The Call. He has also been mentioned numerous times on Jim Cramer'ss Mad Money, is a featured guest on CNN Radio and has been quoted in financial magazines and websites. Before TheStreet.com, Frank was the editor of The FXC Newsletter and received one of the top rankings by Hulbert's Financial Digest for risk-adjusted performance. Follow @frankcurzio Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (MCD), (SI), (NYCB), (AMD), (INTC), (AAPL), (TSM), (TSLA), (GLD), (BTCUSD)

Markets get skittish on economic slowdown concerns. Employment Report  - inline and not much of a surprise. 10-year Yield tumbles to lowest since Sept 2022 and helps precious metals break out. Let's look back to look ahead... Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (N/A)

Rate direction – bets are for cuts later this year! Ending the quarter on a more positive note - market happy nothing else is breaking. Nailing 1st place in the Chili Cook off - secret ingredient. This week's guest - Danielle DiMartino Booth. As Founder & CEO of Quill Intelligence, Danielle DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how markets intelligence is conceived and delivered. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans to analyze the trends and provide critical analysis on what is driving the markets – both in the United States and globally. A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), has a column on Bloomberg View, is a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas where she served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio: she holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Follow @DiMartinoBooth Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (CS), (BAC), (SPY), (GLD)

Central Banks boost rates, bond yields fall. Powell says banking system is strong and resilient! Yellen says not planning on full backstop. Double talk and backspeak – only meant to confound and confuse. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (DB), (CS), (GLD), SLV), (BAC), (JPM)

Banks are in the tank – bad mojo out there. The Fed and Treasury getting out the playbook – keep up confidence at any cost! QT turns to QE – half of April's QT bought back – just last week! Guest - Anthony Scaramucci discusses some really interesting topics such as the Avatars of Our Anger, the ongoing Jihad to punish bank execs and his take on bitcoin. Anthony Scaramucci is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge, a global alternative investment firm, and founder and chairman of SALT, a global thought leadership forum and venture studio. Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman in 2001. Earlier, he worked in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2022, Scaramucci was ranked #47 in Cointelegraph’s Top 100 Influencers in Crypto and Blockchain. In 2016, he was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’s Power 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s New York Financial Services “Entrepreneur of the Year” Award. Anthony is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and a board member of the Federal Enforcement Homeland Security Foundation. He is the author of five books. OPEN BOOK PODCAST ON APPLE Scaramucci served on President Donald J. Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee, and in 2017 briefly served as Chief Strategy Officer of the Export-Import (EXIM) Bank and White House Communications Director. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School. Follow @Scaramucci Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (FRB), (BAC), (AAPL), (PACW)

A Best of show put together by Ryan Rediske. Great work and a lookback on some of the smart and not-so smart calls on tech from 2022. It is a good practice to see what you got right and what you got wrong to help make better decision in the future. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (META), (AAPL), (GOOG), (RBLX), AMZN)

Investor Education in the spotlight – Fin Literacy Month comes early. March – a month to take notice of. The Fed is not kidding around... Stocks and bonds sending mixed signals - no memory day to day. Steve Sanders is Executive Vice President of Marketing & Product Development at Interactive Brokers. In this capacity, he oversees all marketing and product development efforts at the company and introduces Interactive Brokers’ low commissions, advanced trading technology and breadth of product worldwide to advanced individual and institutional investors globally. Steve joined Interactive Brokers in 2001 to establish the company’s platform for financial advisors. Since that time, he has been responsible for many key initiatives including building a direct / digital marketing program, developing a new account structure and registration process for institutional investor clients and contributing to the deployment of the company’s Integrated Investment Account.  During his over twenty-year tenure with the company, Steve has remained focused on providing IBKR clients with the products, tools and resources necessary to meet a wide variety of trading and investing objectives, which he believes has contributed to the company’s extraordinary growth over the years. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Steve spent fifteen years at Citibank in a variety of positions including Managing Director and Chief Technology Officer of Cybic, a “Request for Quote” exchange to facilitate the distribution of OTC derivative products to retail investors, which he developed. Before that, he held diverse roles throughout the organization in credit & risk management, marketing, financial planning, and product structuring functions. Steve holds an MBA in Finance from the University of Chicago and an undergraduate degree from SUNY at Albany in Accounting and Computer Science. IBKR CAMPUS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (N/A)

From the Outhouse to the Penthouse – Cash that is… GDP comes in well above expectations – inflation not relaxing Consumer Discretionary stocks out of favor – AI is the buzz these days A quick lesson on Risk Management. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (NVDA), (HD), (W), (M), (DDS), (ETSY)

Bullard – Bullard – The Hawk comes back – sinks market with a quick comment. I got a $1,500 water bill this month! That’s inflation. We also got hot inflation numbers this week – that is a concern. And our Guest, Brian Shannon from Alphatrends.net Brian Shannon, full-time trader, educator and author of the highly regarded book Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes, is the founder of Alphatrends. With 20+ years of experience, he has turned beginners, losing traders, and even so called “experts” into profitable traders that are equipped to seal gains in the market regardless of it‘s turbulence. Learn how to trade stocks from one of the best in the industry. Brian is the #1 ranked expert on Twitter in the categories of investing and Trading With over 52,000+ followers. In addition, Brian has a following of over 62,000+ on StockTwits, and some of the most subscribed financial videos on YouTube. If you are looking for the best stock trading site, look no further, Alphatrends has everything you need. CHECK OUT BRIAN'S LATEST BOOK “I believe in honesty, realistic expectations and true representations of what people can expect. Everything I say here is done without the slightest exaggeration. Integrity is everything to me. While this business is rife with charlatans that prey on people‘s greed, I only talk about substance and obtainable trading results. “  Follow @alphatrends Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (BBBY), (MSFT), (BIDU), (AI)

AI is the newest phrase to catch the imagination of investors. All hoping they are getting in on the next Apple. A few comments on disinflation and the charade the Fed is trying to pull. What we are seeing is the “amateurish-fad-based-push-up-the-market-for-any-reason-daily-grind” is in full swing - but that may not last long. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (BBBY), (MSFT), (BIDU), (AI)

Lousy earnings, stocks go higher. Fed stays somewhat hawkish, stocks go higher. Blowout jobs report, stocks go higher. Short squeeze games anyone? This week's guest - Erik Townsend with MacroVoices Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. A teenage computer protégé, he spent most of his high school years at MIT's Artificial Intelligence laboratory, where he taught himself several computer programming languages. Erik became an independent software development and design consultant to Digital Corporation's manufacturing systems technology group at age 17. By age 20 he owned his first private aircraft, after earning his private and commercial pilot's licenses. From his experience at MIT, Erik recognized that the IT industry's failure to embrace distributed computing translated to an exceptional entrepreneurial opportunity. At age 21, Erik committed himself to developing and commercializing distributed application software technologies he was first exposed to at MIT in the late '70s. By the mid-1980s, Erik had invented an approach to distributed system design that is now widely known as Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA). After applying SOA concepts initially at Digital Equipment Corp (where he consulted for nearly 10 years), in 1992 Erik founded the Cushing Group, a boutique consultancy focused exclusively on bringing advanced distributed application computing technologies to market. The Cushing Group's work with Wells Fargo Bank in the early 1990s paved the way for Wells Fargo to become the world's first Internet Bank by early 1995. Erik has become a passionate world traveler. He moved to Hong Kong in 2009 to get a better perspective on changing global economics. While living in Hong Kong, several hedge fund professionals he met there observed that through his own passionate trading activities, Erik was “already doing all the work of running a hedge fund except for picking up the phone and calling a lawyer and turning it into a fund”. Erik was flattered by the advice of his peers in Hong Kong to launch his own hedge fund, but wanted to finish his boots-on-ground evaluation of the global economy first. He spent just over sixteen month in 2011 and 2012 exploring the world, living in 28 cities in 18 countries during that period. Erik continues to live a very international lifestyle, and presently has homes in Hong Kong, Mexico and the United States. Erik eventually took his Hong Kong friends’ advice to heart, and founded Fourth Turning Capital Management, LLC in 2013. Through that asset management company, he launched a Global Macro-strategy hedge fund in July 2013. In February 2016, in a joint effort with Nathan Egger, Erik launched Macro Voices, a new weekly financial podcast program which will target professional finance, high net worth, and other “sophisticated” investors who desire financial content at a level of sophistication and complexity above what the retail investment-focused podcasts on the Internet presently offer.

GDP looking good, inflation, coming down – Now Waiting for the Fed'd decision next week. Earnings outlook – murky at best while  markets in full melt-up mode – kind of fun to watch. Out guest John Williams , founder of ShadowStats Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ John Williams””founder and publisher of ShadowStats.com.   He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College, and an M.B.A. from Dartmouth‘s Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar.   During his career as a consulting economist in the last 33 years, he has worked with individuals as well with as Fortune 500 companies. Out of necessity, he became a specialist in government economic reporting.   An early client””a large manufacturer of commercial airplanes””had developed a model for predicting revenue passenger miles, a primary sales forecasting tool.   Heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) out of the Department of Commerce, the model suddenly stopped working, and the client asked Williams to fix it.   The GNP numbers were faulty, he corrected them (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later), and the model worked again, at least for a while, until changes in GNP methodology eventually made the underlying data worthless. That began a lengthy process exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and interviewing key people involved in the system from the early days of government reporting through the present.   For a number of years, he conducted surveys among business economists as to the quality of government statistics.   The vast majority thought it was pretty bad, with survey results leading to 1989 front-page stories in the New York Times and Investors Daily, considerable coverage in the broadcast media and a joint meeting with representatives of all the U.S. government‘s statistical agencies. Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades.   Problems include changes in reporting methodologies that have pushed headline economic and inflation results outside the realm of real-world or common experience. Over the decades, Williams has given thousands of presentations on the U.S. economic outlook and on approaches to analyzing economic data, to clients””large and small””including talks with members of the business, banking, government, press, academic, brokerage and investment communities, as well as having provided testimony before the U.S. Congress. Public response to a 2004 series of articles on the quality of government statistics was so strong that he started Shadow Government Statistics, a newsletter first published on ShadowStats.com in 2004.   That weekly commentary is published as part of his economic consulting services. Find out more about ShadowStats.com Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE