PodCasts – McAlvany Weekly Commentary

A Look At This Week’s Show: -Gold should see $1850 in the next 60 days and should be very bullish in 2012 as well. -Two macroeconomic events that will drive gold over the next year are loose monetary policy and the potential collapse of an EU member nation. -Gold should maintain steady double digit growth through at least 2015. Growth could be much more abrupt should something unexpected occur such as an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities or a surprise in the U.S. Presidential election. Gold Insider Conversations: Roy’s experience as an institutional gold trader over a 32 year period brings insight into the present day gyrations in the precious metals markets.  We discuss past present and future events as they relate to Gold, and the various issues which are immediately impacting the price of the metals.  He can discuss his views freely as a long time friend, but in confidence.  We have left his name and the remainder of his bio out so he can share his thoughts with candor.

A Look At This Week’s Show: -The biggest mistake a gold buyer can make is to watch the price every day. Buy for the long term preservation of buying power and don’t watch it like a day trader would. -Looking forward beyond the current currency crises, the ultimate currency solution will likely be a currency backed by a “Basket of Commodities” discipline. -Harry Brown’s wisdom from days gone by still applies. Don’t ever bet the whole farm in any one direction. Build a correctly allocated portfolio based on a long term outlook and reallocate as necessary based on the big picture.   About the guest: Ian McAvity, CMT, has been writing his DeliberationsTM on World Markets newsletter for a global readership since 1972. He draws on 48 years of experience in the world of finance–as a banker and broker since 1961 and as an independent advisor and entrepreneur since 1975. Principally a technical analyst, Mr. McAvity has written on global inter-market relationships since the 1970s, including original research on relationships between gold mining shares and gold bullion. In the 1980s and 1990s he served as a director of many junior mining and exploration companies. He has been profiled by most of the major North American financial media including the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and the Financial Post. Mr. McAvity has been a special guest on Louis Rukeyser’s Wall $treet Week, as well as on CTV’s Canada AM morning show and CBC’s Business World.  

A Look At This Weeks Show: - When and how do we know when to re-balance our Triangle Strategy? - Does the gold market track with or opposite to the stock market? Is the short term movement indicative of the long term trend? - Do countries with larger gold reserves (or other commodities) offer a safer currency risk than countries that are gold poor?

A Look At This Week’s Show: -Those who occupy Wall Street should be looking to Frederic Bastiat’s “The Law” for guidance. Download your free written copy of The Law at: http://mises.org/books/thelaw.pdf Download audio version of The Law at: http://mises.org/media/2648/The-Law  -Listener question: What does default look like in the United States and what is the probability it could happen? -Listener question: How and when do I begin employing my reduction strategy? -Listener question: Gold vs. Gold Stocks?

About This Week’s Show: -Gold is money and therefore increases it’s buying power during a deflation (contrary to popular belief) -Question: How can the economy ever recover if the Fed stops injecting it with new stimulus? Answer: If left to the natural business cycle, the PRICE of all things adjusts to a lower equilibrium which prompts spending once again  -Why does the Fed want us to fear deflation and to “fight it at all costs” when some of the most productive era’s in history have been during deflationary periods?

A Look At This Week’s Show: -Looking ahead, national integration is the trend and likely outcome of the current European mess. -The Breton-Woods Dollar reserve system will be replaced by a completely new monetary order between 2012-2014. -Look for a transnational referendum to pass overwhelmingly taking Europe into a new era of transnational leadership and law. -Be sure to visit: http://www.franck-biancheri.eu/  and   http://leap2020.eu/

 A Look At This Week’s Show: -Euro zone now estimates 2 Trillion Euro’s needed for adequate “Shock and Awe” backstop to Euro banks -Last week’s realization that recession is far from over triggered a flight to liquidity (Dollars and long bonds) -The selloff in Gold and other commodities was purely a “paper” sale to raise quick liquidity. Real physical gold is not being sold and is in fact become harder to acquire

A Look At This Week’s Show: -Keynes fooled an entire nation into believing that we could spend our way to recovery. Today’s news proves that this is as wrong as it initially sounded. -Keynes said, “Drive down interest rates” which in the final analysis leads to a whirlwind of inflation, bubbles and busts. -The biggest obstacle in changing the flawed status quo in government is not the voting public, but rather special interest groups refusing to give up privilege. About the Guest: Hunter Lewis has contributed to many newspapers and periodicals including the New York Times, the Times of London, the Washington Post, and the Atlantic Monthly, as well as numerous websites such as Forbes.com. He is also an author and editor of books on economics and moral philosophy. His works include: Where Keynes Went Wrong: And Why World Governments Keep Creating Inflation, Bubbles, and Busts, Are the Rich Necessary?: Great Economic Arguments and How They Reflect Our Personal Values.

A Look at This Week’s Show: - Germany is anticipating the worst with plans for an aid package for its banks (assuming an imminent default in Greece). - Rumor has it that a new Greek currency has already been printed awaiting “the news.” - How long/high will gold continue in this bull market? The duration of the gold bull market will endure as long as Keynesian bias dominates the halls of the Fed, Treasury and educational academia.

A Look at This Weeks Show: - There is a shallow appreciation for how grave the threat is to the European Union as it exists now. -Germany has and will hold the key to a continued EU project. - Just as in 2008 in the United States, banks are leading on the downside in Europe (since the end of July, 7 trillion in equity values have disappeared).

A Look At This Weeks Show: -  Let’s get real, the US is bankrupt. Neither spending more nor taxing less will solve the problem. -  What it can and must do is radically simplify its tax, health-care, financial and retirement systems, each of which is a complete mess. -  The good news is that with a complete redesign we can lower our current costs and bring in more revenue. About the guest: Laurence Kotlikoff  is a William Warren FairField Professor at Boston University, a Professor of Economics at Boston University, a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a Fellow of the Econometric Society, a former Senior Economist, President’s Council of Economic Advisers, and President of Economic Security Planning. Purchase Jimmy Stewart is Dead Here   

A Look at This Week’s Show: - Argentina was once an engine of economic prosperity that destroyed itself with debt and worthless currency (multiple times). - The United States will not outright default on it’s debt but can and will print it’s way to the same outcome. - The current debt market crises cannot be isolated from the much larger derivative leviathan.

 About This Week’s Show: - It’s a myth that speculators run up the price of oil. Only 20% of the oil is hedged at one time. - The concept of “Peak Energy” is currently non-existent due to the abundance of coal and it’s many uses. - Real inflation is running at 9.6% (Using the index from when Volker was chairman of the Fed) therefore, forcing money into paper oil as a hedge against currency devaluation. About the Guest: Alexander Landia, Chairman of the Nominations and Compensation Committee, member of the Strategy Committee. Landia worked for Accenture, the largest consulting company in the world. As the partner of Accenture, he was General Director of Accenture Russia until 2006. In 2004 he was appointed Global Gas Lead Partner, responsible for Accenture’s global business in the gas industry while based in Moscow.

How the downgrade of U.S. Treasury Debt will cascade to Mortgage Backed Securities, Fannie & Freddie as well as Municipal Bonds. I scream, you scream we all scream Double Dip! Old habits die hard: Americans get scared due to downgrade in bonds and then run into the same (recently downgraded) bonds for protection!? The rest of the world sees the paradox and runs to gold and German bonds.  

A Look At This Weeks Show: -Exponential growth is different from linear growth. We naturally think linear yet the current situation is exponential. -Growth and prosperity are also different. You can have growth or prosperity, but not both perpetually. -Problems and predicaments are different as well. A problem can be solved to avoid a certain outcome. A predicament has no solution, only an outcome. We currently have a predicament that we must adjust to. About the Guest: Dr. Chris Martenson is an independent economist and author of a popular website, ChrisMartenson.com. His Crash Course video series explores the intertwining significance of the “three E’s”—the economy, energy, and environment and offers articulate, dynamic insight into the workings of our monetary system. Click Here to Purchase The Crash Course