The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Summary: Government spending creates the greatest drag on the U.S. economy.  Cutting taxes, even the "biggest tax cut ever" cannot stimulate the economy alone.  So if you're fed up with paying taxes, if you think you are over-taxed,  and you are, it's because the government is spending too much money. The only real way to get relief is to dramatically cut government spending.  No one want's to do that, however, because the people who benefit from government spending, vote, and none of the politicians are willing to lose their votes to ease the burden of everybody else. * On Friday, President Donald Trump said that he would be unveiling on Wednesday of next week, a massive tax cut * In fact, he actually went out on a limb and stated that it is going to be the biggest tax cut ever * Now, I'm really not sure why Donald Trump feels he has to keep promising something and then failing to deliver; that's been a problem * You don't want to over-promise and under-deliver * I understand as a candidate you want to do that; you want to promise anything to get elected * But somebody ought to tell Donald Trump that the election is over and he won * He's President, and he doesn't have to come out and just say things * What I think is that he should say nothing about tax reform until he actually releases a plan * That way he can over-deliver * Don't promise anything - "I'm working on it." - and don't put up a deadline for Wednesday * What if it doesn't happen? * What if there is no tax cut on Wednesday * What if it's not the biggest the biggest tax cut ever * Why make those promises? * Maybe his is going to release a massive tax cut on Wednesday and maybe it will be the biggest ever * I'm not going to take credit away from the President; I'm just saying, "Why not just wait until Wednesday?" * Just in case something goes wrong * Maybe this time there actually is a vote * But the problem, is if you cry wolf to often, then eventually no one's going to believe you * There's really no reason to go out and make the promise; just deliver the massive tax cut on Wednesday and everything will be fine * But I guess he can't resist jumping the gun * But the crazy part about this, first of all, how is it going to be the biggest tax cut ever? * It's hard to believe that, when we have the most debt ever * An enormous 20 trillion National Debt, that the President understands, * He pointed out how big the debt was when he campaigned * How can we afford the biggest tax cut ever unless we're also going to talk about the biggest government spending cut ever?

Summary: Government spending creates the greatest drag on the U.S. economy.  Cutting taxes, even the "biggest tax cut ever" cannot stimulate the economy alone.  So if you're fed up with paying taxes, if you think you are over-taxed,  and you are, it's because the government is spending too much money. The only real way to get relief is to dramatically cut government spending.  No one want's to do that, however, because the people who benefit from government spending, vote, and none of the politicians are willing to lose their votes to ease the burden of everybody else. * On Friday, President Donald Trump said that he would be unveiling on Wednesday of next week, a massive tax cut * In fact, he actually went out on a limb and stated that it is going to be the biggest tax cut ever * Now, I'm really not sure why Donald Trump feels he has to keep promising something and then failing to deliver; that's been a problem * You don't want to over-promise and under-deliver * I understand as a candidate you want to do that; you want to promise anything to get elected * But somebody ought to tell Donald Trump that the election is over and he won * He's President, and he doesn't have to come out and just say things * What I think is that he should say nothing about tax reform until he actually releases a plan * That way he can over-deliver * Don't promise anything - "I'm working on it." - and don't put up a deadline for Wednesday * What if it doesn't happen? * What if there is no tax cut on Wednesday * What if it's not the biggest the biggest tax cut ever * Why make those promises? * Maybe his is going to release a massive tax cut on Wednesday and maybe it will be the biggest ever * I'm not going to take credit away from the President; I'm just saying, "Why not just wait until Wednesday?" * Just in case something goes wrong * Maybe this time there actually is a vote * But the problem, is if you cry wolf to often, then eventually no one's going to believe you * There's really no reason to go out and make the promise; just deliver the massive tax cut on Wednesday and everything will be fine * But I guess he can't resist jumping the gun * But the crazy part about this, first of all, how is it going to be the biggest tax cut ever? * It's hard to believe that, when we have the most debt ever * An enormous 20 trillion National Debt, that the President understands, * He pointed out how big the debt was when he campaigned * How can we afford the biggest tax cut ever unless we're also going to talk about the biggest government spending cut ever?

Summary: Goldman Sachs is no longer recommending a long trade on the dollar. The dollar was previously regarded as a conviction trade, first over speculation over Fed rate hikes and then over Trump exuberance with the expectation of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and other moves that would continue to inflate the dollar bubble.  The dollar was the most crowded trade out there.  I believe, however that as we get close enough to the next recession, that we are going to get another big Keynesian stimulus of increased government spending and tax cuts, which will send the budget deficit through the roof and that will send the dollar through the floor. * We've been having quite a bit of volatility in the U.S. stock market, with back-to-back triple-digit moves in opposite directions * Yesterday, the Dow was up well over 100 points, closer to 200 * But today the Dow Jones was down better than 100 points * Between the 2 days it was still positive, but we'll see what happens tomorrow * We did get some worse than expected new after the bell on IBM; I'm seeing the stock down close to 5% in after hours trading * That could set the tone for some weakness tomorrow * Goldman Sachs helped set a weak tone today; they came out with earnings earlier in the day and their stock was down close to 5% * What was more interesting about Goldman Sachs was not their missed earnings, * But the fact that they are now throwing in the towel on their long-term recommendations to buy the dollar * Of course, the dollar has been strong over the past few years * Although really since March of last year the dollar has gone sideways * It did make a marginal new high during the Trump mania, after the election * But only against a few currencies, not against all currencies * The dollar index today was down sharply; it closed at about 99.50 * The strongest currency today was the pound sterling; it was actually up about 3 full cents; a 2.25% move * The dollar was also down today against the euro, against the yen * It was up against some of the commodity currencies, which had been stronger during the year * It looks to me that the dollar has topped out, and it looks that way to Goldman Sachs * They are saying, "This is no longer our top recommendation, like a conviction trade" * Why? because everybody assumed that the dollar was going to go up * Because the Fed is hiking rates; we're getting all this economic stimulus, tax cuts, we're going to get infrastructure stimulus * Whatever the reason, everybody was certain the dollar was going to go up * Remember, I said it was the most crowded trade out there

Summary: Goldman Sachs is no longer recommending a long trade on the dollar. The dollar was previously regarded as a conviction trade, first over speculation over Fed rate hikes and then over Trump exuberance with the expectation of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and other moves that would continue to inflate the dollar bubble.  The dollar was the most crowded trade out there.  I believe, however that as we get close enough to the next recession, that we are going to get another big Keynesian stimulus of increased government spending and tax cuts, which will send the budget deficit through the roof and that will send the dollar through the floor. * We've been having quite a bit of volatility in the U.S. stock market, with back-to-back triple-digit moves in opposite directions * Yesterday, the Dow was up well over 100 points, closer to 200 * But today the Dow Jones was down better than 100 points * Between the 2 days it was still positive, but we'll see what happens tomorrow * We did get some worse than expected new after the bell on IBM; I'm seeing the stock down close to 5% in after hours trading * That could set the tone for some weakness tomorrow * Goldman Sachs helped set a weak tone today; they came out with earnings earlier in the day and their stock was down close to 5% * What was more interesting about Goldman Sachs was not their missed earnings, * But the fact that they are now throwing in the towel on their long-term recommendations to buy the dollar * Of course, the dollar has been strong over the past few years * Although really since March of last year the dollar has gone sideways * It did make a marginal new high during the Trump mania, after the election * But only against a few currencies, not against all currencies * The dollar index today was down sharply; it closed at about 99.50 * The strongest currency today was the pound sterling; it was actually up about 3 full cents; a 2.25% move * The dollar was also down today against the euro, against the yen * It was up against some of the commodity currencies, which had been stronger during the year * It looks to me that the dollar has topped out, and it looks that way to Goldman Sachs * They are saying, "This is no longer our top recommendation, like a conviction trade" * Why? because everybody assumed that the dollar was going to go up * Because the Fed is hiking rates; we're getting all this economic stimulus, tax cuts, we're going to get infrastructure stimulus * Whatever the reason, everybody was certain the dollar was going to go up * Remember, I said it was the most crowded trade out there

Summary: Donald Trump's promises on healthcare and smaller government appear to be fading behind news of increased military spending, infrastructure spending and compromises on health care and tax reform.  This scenario looks far more like Jimmy Carter than Ronald Regan. We continue to get bad economic data, telegraphing that the air is already leaking out of the economic bubbles created over the last 8 years. This bad news may encourage the Fed to walk back their current interest rate hike schedule, which would, if implemented, put a match to growing recessionary trends. *  It is Good Friday today and most of the world's markets are closed, including the U.S. stock market * I want to wish all my listeners happy Good Friday and Easter and to my Jewish listeners happy Passover *  But let me get to the economic data that came out this morning because some of the government offices are open today * I am starting with the Consumer Price Index, which is not bad from my perspective, but will be bad from Wall Street's perspective or the Fed's perspective * Although bad is good, in that it will give the Fed cover to not raise rates * Because the CPI actually dropped in March my 3 tenths of a percent * It was unexpected; it was supposed to be flat * And the Core number was supposed to be up .2 and it was down .1 * I think this is the weakest inflation number in a couple of years * Of course, year over year, we're still above the Fed's 2% target * Year over year, CPI headline up 2.4% and the core is up 2.0 * But the most recent number being down, may in fact give the Fed cover to walk back the market's expectations for 2 or 3 rate hikes coming later this year * But I think the more relevant information is the extremely weak number we got on retail sales * I was expecting a weak number * I mentioned that in my last podcast, and we got a weak number * But not only was it weak, but they revised the February number that was originally weak, much weaker * The expectation was for a flat month of March for retail sales * Versus the .1% gain that we eked out in February * Now, the government came back and said, "No, the February number was actually a drop of .3% * So instead of +.1% we dropped .3% * And in March, instead of being flat, we were down another .2% * So that means for the two months combined, we have a decline of .5% instead of an increase of .1%

Summary: Donald Trump's promises on healthcare and smaller government appear to be fading behind news of increased military spending, infrastructure spending and compromises on health care and tax reform.  This scenario looks far more like Jimmy Carter than Ronald Regan. We continue to get bad economic data, telegraphing that the air is already leaking out of the economic bubbles created over the last 8 years. This bad news may encourage the Fed to walk back their current interest rate hike schedule, which would, if implemented, put a match to growing recessionary trends. *  It is Good Friday today and most of the world's markets are closed, including the U.S. stock market * I want to wish all my listeners happy Good Friday and Easter and to my Jewish listeners happy Passover *  But let me get to the economic data that came out this morning because some of the government offices are open today * I am starting with the Consumer Price Index, which is not bad from my perspective, but will be bad from Wall Street's perspective or the Fed's perspective * Although bad is good, in that it will give the Fed cover to not raise rates * Because the CPI actually dropped in March my 3 tenths of a percent * It was unexpected; it was supposed to be flat * And the Core number was supposed to be up .2 and it was down .1 * I think this is the weakest inflation number in a couple of years * Of course, year over year, we're still above the Fed's 2% target * Year over year, CPI headline up 2.4% and the core is up 2.0 * But the most recent number being down, may in fact give the Fed cover to walk back the market's expectations for 2 or 3 rate hikes coming later this year * But I think the more relevant information is the extremely weak number we got on retail sales * I was expecting a weak number * I mentioned that in my last podcast, and we got a weak number * But not only was it weak, but they revised the February number that was originally weak, much weaker * The expectation was for a flat month of March for retail sales * Versus the .1% gain that we eked out in February * Now, the government came back and said, "No, the February number was actually a drop of .3% * So instead of +.1% we dropped .3% * And in March, instead of being flat, we were down another .2% * So that means for the two months combined, we have a decline of .5% instead of an increase of .1%

Summary:  President Trump's campaign promises are falling by the wayside one by one.  First the backfire on the replacement for Obamacare, and then, just as talk of tax reform heats up, the administration seems to be gazing toward the Democrats for a bi-partisan solution to tax reform.  No good can come from bi-partisanship.  When the Republicans and the Democrats are working together, that's when you really have to watch your pocketbook.  That's when the most damage gets done. The stock market initially rallied on the jobs number, but sold off by the end of the day; normally, you get a print this low the dollar index would tank and gold would take off. That didn't happen because the night before Donald Trump decided to Make America Great Again by bombing Syria. * Well, I am back on dry land, I was away for a week doing a cruise with the Real Estate Guys Summit at Sea * One of the presenters was senior vice-president and chief economist of Fannie Mae Doug Duncan * I thought my presentation would be a big contrast to his, I thought he would present the usual government unrealistic estimates, but * I was very pleasantly surprised, as I listened to his presentation, I found I agreed with him * And after a private conversation with him after his presentation, we had a great discussion and we didn't desagree on anything! * He is very bearish on the housing market, very much against Fed policy * He's against the minimum wage * We had a long conversation and we really disagreed on nothing! * I was quite surprised to find a government insider who showed such economic insights * So it's just not Peter Schiff who sees these problems looming on the horizon * In the bond market, in the real estate market * The is a minority of government economists, just like I'm in the minority of Wall Street or investment economists * But it's good to know that there are some good people working within the government * But I wanted to get into topics of this podcast; a lot to talk about * Let's start with the Non-Farm Payroll report * The jobs report that came out on Friday is usually the most highly anticipated release of the month * Everybody was enthusiastic about this report * Earlier in the week we got the ADP number, the private sector number which is normally a precursor to the official government number * and that number was way ahead of estimates, so there was a lot of enthusiasm that we would have a beat for the official government March number * They were looking for 175,000 jobs which was going to be a reduction from the 235,000 jobs reported for the month of February * The actual number of jobs that were created was not 175,000 but 98,000 * Big miss on the headline number * In fact, they actually revised downward the previous month * So they took that down from 235,000 to 219,000 and now we got 98,000 versus 175 * And the private payrolls were even worse; they were looking for 170,000 and we only got 89,000

Summary:  President Trump's campaign promises are falling by the wayside one by one.  First the backfire on the replacement for Obamacare, and then, just as talk of tax reform heats up, the administration seems to be gazing toward the Democrats for a bi-partisan solution to tax reform.  No good can come from bi-partisanship.  When the Republicans and the Democrats are working together, that's when you really have to watch your pocketbook.  That's when the most damage gets done. The stock market initially rallied on the jobs number, but sold off by the end of the day; normally, you get a print this low the dollar index would tank and gold would take off. That didn't happen because the night before Donald Trump decided to Make America Great Again by bombing Syria. * Well, I am back on dry land, I was away for a week doing a cruise with the Real Estate Guys Summit at Sea * One of the presenters was senior vice-president and chief economist of Fannie Mae Doug Duncan * I thought my presentation would be a big contrast to his, I thought he would present the usual government unrealistic estimates, but * I was very pleasantly surprised, as I listened to his presentation, I found I agreed with him * And after a private conversation with him after his presentation, we had a great discussion and we didn't desagree on anything! * He is very bearish on the housing market, very much against Fed policy * He's against the minimum wage * We had a long conversation and we really disagreed on nothing! * I was quite surprised to find a government insider who showed such economic insights * So it's just not Peter Schiff who sees these problems looming on the horizon * In the bond market, in the real estate market * The is a minority of government economists, just like I'm in the minority of Wall Street or investment economists * But it's good to know that there are some good people working within the government * But I wanted to get into topics of this podcast; a lot to talk about * Let's start with the Non-Farm Payroll report * The jobs report that came out on Friday is usually the most highly anticipated release of the month * Everybody was enthusiastic about this report * Earlier in the week we got the ADP number, the private sector number which is normally a precursor to the official government number * and that number was way ahead of estimates, so there was a lot of enthusiasm that we would have a beat for the official government March number * They were looking for 175,000 jobs which was going to be a reduction from the 235,000 jobs reported for the month of February * The actual number of jobs that were created was not 175,000 but 98,000 * Big miss on the headline number * In fact, they actually revised downward the previous month * So they took that down from 235,000 to 219,000 and now we got 98,000 versus 175 * And the private payrolls were even worse; they were looking for 170,000 and we only got 89,000

Summary: President Trump needs to lead, not oppose.  He is opposing the very forces who put him in office.  By aligning with the mainstream Republican Party, he vacates the opportunity to lead the economy successfully through the inevitable consequences of the Obama Administration's failed economic policies. Investors are jumping on the bandwagon of hype surrounding the Trump Presidency.  Abandoning safe havens and emerging markets, they are buying into the American stock market at high valuations, which is the equivalent of abandoning the lifeboat and swimming back onto the Titanic just because the band is playing. * As I suspected, we now have a bit of a civil war breaking out in the Republican Party * On the one side, you have the Freedom Caucus, and then you have everybody else, or the mainstream of the Republican Party * It seems like Donald Trump is the general of the mainstream * One of the battlefields is Twitter * Where you have President Trump calling out even specific Congressional members of the Freedom Caucus by name * And blaming them for the failure of the Republican agenda * Remember: we don't want the Republican agenda * Donald Trump ran on a platform of "Making America Great Again" * One of the reasons America is not great is because of the Republican agenda * Republicans have played a role in destroying this economy * It's not like the Republicans are all good and the Democrats are all bad * That's not the case * The difference, in terms of the economy, between Republicans and Democrats, is like the difference between Coke and Pepsi * They're all politicians! * Their business is perpetuating their own careers and their own power base * What do they need? They need votes and they need money * How do you get votes? Promise something for nothing. * Give out freebies.  Take advantage of the fact that the average voter is a moron, and they're just voting for free stuff from the government * Sometimes there is a difference between the way the Democrats and the Republicans wrap it up * Who said, "Let's wrap up Obamacare in a Republican bow."? * Republicans like to wrap up socialism in different packaging * That's how they get votes - they're afraid to engage the electorate on an intellectual level * Because they really don't have one

Summary: President Trump needs to lead, not oppose.  He is opposing the very forces who put him in office.  By aligning with the mainstream Republican Party, he vacates the opportunity to lead the economy successfully through the inevitable consequences of the Obama Administration's failed economic policies. Investors are jumping on the bandwagon of hype surrounding the Trump Presidency.  Abandoning safe havens and emerging markets, they are buying into the American stock market at high valuations, which is the equivalent of abandoning the lifeboat and swimming back onto the Titanic just because the band is playing. * As I suspected, we now have a bit of a civil war breaking out in the Republican Party * On the one side, you have the Freedom Caucus, and then you have everybody else, or the mainstream of the Republican Party * It seems like Donald Trump is the general of the mainstream * One of the battlefields is Twitter * Where you have President Trump calling out even specific Congressional members of the Freedom Caucus by name * And blaming them for the failure of the Republican agenda * Remember: we don't want the Republican agenda * Donald Trump ran on a platform of "Making America Great Again" * One of the reasons America is not great is because of the Republican agenda * Republicans have played a role in destroying this economy * It's not like the Republicans are all good and the Democrats are all bad * That's not the case * The difference, in terms of the economy, between Republicans and Democrats, is like the difference between Coke and Pepsi * They're all politicians! * Their business is perpetuating their own careers and their own power base * What do they need? They need votes and they need money * How do you get votes? Promise something for nothing. * Give out freebies.  Take advantage of the fact that the average voter is a moron, and they're just voting for free stuff from the government * Sometimes there is a difference between the way the Democrats and the Republicans wrap it up * Who said, "Let's wrap up Obamacare in a Republican bow."? * Republicans like to wrap up socialism in different packaging * That's how they get votes - they're afraid to engage the electorate on an intellectual level * Because they really don't have one

* On Monday the market got its first opportunity to react to President Trump and the Republican Congress' failure to repeal and replace Obamacare * With something more palatable * And as a result, the market declined * At the lows, the Dow was down approximately 200 points * Although the "Buy the Dippers" came out, and by the end of the day, the Dow was UP about 150 points * But it was the 8th consecutive down day for the Dow * Which I think was a tie for the longest losing streak since 2011 * Had the Dow been down again today, it would have been the longest losing streak since sometime in the 1970's * So it wasn't that surprising that the Dow rallied * We were up about 150 points, so we more than wiped out yesterday's losses * On the other hand, the dollar sold off yesterday and actually traded with a 98 handle * For the first time since just after the election * Almost all of the Trump-related dollar rally has been eviscerated * The dollar rallied back today closing at 99.71 today * The pound was weak; the Scottish are getting ready to have another referendum * Whether or not they want to leave the U.K. * Remember, the Scots did not want to leave the EU * They narrowly rejected an independence referendum before and now that there is going to be another vote, the market is nervous * Maybe that helped push the dollar down, but we're below 100 on the dollar index right now * Gold got back up to $1260 yesterday; at one point it was up about $17 * I didn't see it hit $1261 * That was about the high for the year * Gold still closed today above $1250 * Silver was actually up again * Adding to yesterday's gain, we're now holding above $18 * So gold and silver going up; the dollar going down * We did get a rally in the bond market yesterday; gave back some of that today * I think today's rally was more of a technical bounce on the "Buy the dip" mentality

* On Monday the market got its first opportunity to react to President Trump and the Republican Congress' failure to repeal and replace Obamacare * With something more palatable * And as a result, the market declined * At the lows, the Dow was down approximately 200 points * Although the "Buy the Dippers" came out, and by the end of the day, the Dow was UP about 150 points * But it was the 8th consecutive down day for the Dow * Which I think was a tie for the longest losing streak since 2011 * Had the Dow been down again today, it would have been the longest losing streak since sometime in the 1970's * So it wasn't that surprising that the Dow rallied * We were up about 150 points, so we more than wiped out yesterday's losses * On the other hand, the dollar sold off yesterday and actually traded with a 98 handle * For the first time since just after the election * Almost all of the Trump-related dollar rally has been eviscerated * The dollar rallied back today closing at 99.71 today * The pound was weak; the Scottish are getting ready to have another referendum * Whether or not they want to leave the U.K. * Remember, the Scots did not want to leave the EU * They narrowly rejected an independence referendum before and now that there is going to be another vote, the market is nervous * Maybe that helped push the dollar down, but we're below 100 on the dollar index right now * Gold got back up to $1260 yesterday; at one point it was up about $17 * I didn't see it hit $1261 * That was about the high for the year * Gold still closed today above $1250 * Silver was actually up again * Adding to yesterday's gain, we're now holding above $18 * So gold and silver going up; the dollar going down * We did get a rally in the bond market yesterday; gave back some of that today * I think today's rally was more of a technical bounce on the "Buy the dip" mentality

*  Earlier I talked about the Trump honeymoon, and  my belief that it wouldn't last long, in fact I thought it might have ended before the marriage began with the inauguration * It did carry on a bit after that, but it seems to me that the honeymoon is ending now * Today, the attempt to repeal and replace ObamaCare went down in flames * That's something I had predicted a while ago; I said that I doubted that they would be able to repeal Obamacare and it turns out that I was right * They didn't do it * In fact, President Trump threw a Hail Mary late in the negotiations by threatening the Republican holdouts: "Pass this bill or else." * He basically said, it's this or nothing - If you don't replace ObamaCare, you're stuck with the consequences * I think that was a bad gamble for the President to have made, in fact as soon as he issued that ultimatum * I thought that was going to be a problem because I didn't think the conservatives were going to buckle as a result of that threat * And they didn't * Now, not only has the bill been pulled, President Trump is in a very awkward position because he's already said * Take it or leave it * And Republicans left it * Now how does he come back to the negotiating table? * Now, if he comes back, he doesn't have a lot of credibility * I still think it would be better if he went back to the negotiation table * I think it was a bad tactic for Trump to say, "It's my way or the highway *  I think that if this bill doesn't succeed, they should try again * They should recognize the problems in the replacement bill and work harder to fix them * The problems is a lot of Republicans don't have the stomach for real reform  

*  Earlier I talked about the Trump honeymoon, and  my belief that it wouldn't last long, in fact I thought it might have ended before the marriage began with the inauguration * It did carry on a bit after that, but it seems to me that the honeymoon is ending now * Today, the attempt to repeal and replace ObamaCare went down in flames * That's something I had predicted a while ago; I said that I doubted that they would be able to repeal Obamacare and it turns out that I was right * They didn't do it * In fact, President Trump threw a Hail Mary late in the negotiations by threatening the Republican holdouts: "Pass this bill or else." * He basically said, it's this or nothing - If you don't replace ObamaCare, you're stuck with the consequences * I think that was a bad gamble for the President to have made, in fact as soon as he issued that ultimatum * I thought that was going to be a problem because I didn't think the conservatives were going to buckle as a result of that threat * And they didn't * Now, not only has the bill been pulled, President Trump is in a very awkward position because he's already said * Take it or leave it * And Republicans left it * Now how does he come back to the negotiating table? * Now, if he comes back, he doesn't have a lot of credibility * I still think it would be better if he went back to the negotiation table * I think it was a bad tactic for Trump to say, "It's my way or the highway *  I think that if this bill doesn't succeed, they should try again * They should recognize the problems in the replacement bill and work harder to fix them * The problems is a lot of Republicans don't have the stomach for real reform  

* U.S. stocks ended the week with marginal gains * In fact, the Dow Jones was up only about 12 points on the week * The real action happened overseas * Foreign markets were strong, particularly emerging markets * They continue to smoke the performance of the U.S. stock market, confounding the experts * The experts thought making America Great Again would be great for U.S. stocks, but it would be a problem for emerging markets * And thus far, emerging markets have been the beneficiaries of the rally to a much greater degree than have domestic stocks * Although the action this week was not really in the stock markets but in the currency markets, in the gold markets * The dollar dropped by over 1% despite the fact that the Fed raised rates * In fact, this was one of the worst weeks for the dollar in about 4-6 months * Gold was up about $25; up 2% on the week * "Hey! I thought gold was supposed to fall, when the Fed hikes rates * Instead, the Fed hiked rates and the price of gold rose * Buy the rumor, sell the fact, gold sold off on the anticipation of this rate hike and it rallied on the realization of what the market had anticipated, so that is not really surprising * But if you go back to the very first rate hike * That really marked the bottom in gold; ever since the Fed started hiking rates * Gold has been rising * The decline in gold took place when people anticipate those rate hikes * By the time they realized the rate hikes, gold began to rise * I think what will really accelerate the prices of gold * Is the fact that rates are not going to nearly as much as the market anticipated * So what has been built into the gold prices for rate hikes is not going to materialize * The rumors were exaggerated * The fact is not going to bear out the rumor