Year End Rallies (with Josh and Tony Dwyer)
Summary: <p>The S&P 500 came into October this year up double digits. It has done so on 42 occasions since 1926. That’s almost 50% of the time. </p><br><p>Of those 42 times, in 35 cases the market went up through the end of the year. That’s an 85% success rate, about as one-sided as market statistics can get. </p><br><p>On only 7 occasions did it fall in the fourth quarter. </p><br><p>BUT....</p><br><p>The 3 worst Q4 losses ever all occurred with the market up double digits - these worst Q4 drops ever were 1929, 1987 and last year</p><br><p>-28%, -23% and -14%</p><br><p>So most of the time when stocks are already up they continue to go up. but sometimes they also get crushed.</p><br><p>The average gain is 4.5% (even including the losses). this is also the 24th time the S&P has been up 20% or more through 3 quarters of the year.</p><br><p>We talked with famed Wall Street strategist Tony Dwyer about the tendency for markets that have a good three quarters to finish strong, and why this year looks like it should fall in line with the historical data. </p><br><p><a href="http://plinkhq.com/i/1456467014" target="_blank">1-click play or subscribe on your favorite podcast app</a></p><p> </p><p>Subscribe to the mini podcast on<a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-compound/id1456467014?mt=2" target="_blank"> iTunes</a> or<a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/5VKsKPZUtwVylxslLie36k?si=W5sikLxWR0avObQlrLqlmw" target="_blank"> Spotify</a> </p><p> </p><p>Enable<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Ritholtz-Wealth-Management-LLC-Compound/dp/B07P777QBZ" target="_blank"> our Alexa skill here</a> - "Alexa, play the Compound show!"</p><p> </p><p>Talk to us about your portfolio or financial plan here: </p><p><a href="http://ritholtzwealth.com/" target="_blank">http://ritholtzwealth.com/</a></p><p> </p><p>Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice just for you or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Please see this 3,000 word terms & conditions disclaimer:</p><p><a href="https://thereformedbroker.com/terms-and-conditions/" target="_blank">https://thereformedbroker.com/terms-and-conditions/</a></p><br><hr><p style="color:grey;font-size:0.75em;"> See <a style="color:grey;" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://acast.com/privacy">acast.com/privacy</a> for privacy and opt-out information.</p>
