Summary: Continuing our discussion of the structured analytic techniques toolbox, we come to Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), which is an unbiased methodology that identifies a set of hypotheses and systematically evaluates data that is consistent or inconsistent with each hypothesis. ACH is an eight-step procedure grounded in basic insights from cognitive psychology, decision analysis, and the scientific method. The use of ACH compels analysts to set aside preconceptions and look for inconsistencies in the data that may indicate a flaw in their reasoning or deception by the target. It ultimately forces analysts to disprove hypotheses rather than allowing them to jump to conclusions before they properly evaluate the evidence. In this episode of the Developing the 21st Century Analyst series, we discuss the steps of ACH and how our office uses this technique in real-world scenarios.
