Summary: <br> <a href="https://twitter.com/DaniMcCabeS4W" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">Dani McCabe</a> is a member of the steering group of <a href="https://www.facebook.com/Standing4WomenIreland/" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">Standing 4 Women</a>. We discussed <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/courts/high-court/ruth-morrissey-landmark-judgment-to-be-appealed-by-us-lab-high-court-told-1.3887630" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">several</a> court <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/courts/high-court/terminally-ill-woman-awarded-2-1m-in-landmark-cervicalcheck-case-1.3879788%20" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">cases</a> surrounding the Cervical Check controversy. <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> *****<br> <br> <br> <br> I wrote a piece on the website last December about Brexit, with the title that might have sounded a little pessimistic. It was called <a href="https://blog.hereshow.ie/2018/12/its-over-brace-for-catastrophe-theres-no-hope/" data-wpel-link="internal">It’s Over. Brace for Catastrophe. There’s No Hope</a>. At this point, I don’t think that was pessimistic.<br> <br> <br> <br> . At this point, I don’t think that was pessimistic.<br> <br> <br> <br> I can’t see any<br> plausible way forward for the UK that does not lead to disaster, to further<br> disaster. Nobody knows exactly what will happen, just like nobody knows exactly<br> which cups and plates a bull in a china shop will smash, but we don’t need to know<br> those details, to know that it isn’t going to end well.<br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> It seems pretty clear<br> now that Theresa May will be gone in a fortnight. The thing that will happen<br> between now and then is what? The fourth doomed vote on her deal with the EU?<br> No. Well, yes it will happen but it’s not relevant, the outcome is certain and it<br> will change nothing.<br> <br> <br> <br> The thing that will happen between now and then is the European Parliament elections. This will have a much more profound impact on UK politics. We can see what’s going on in the polls. At the time of writing, the Nigel Farage fan club, otherwise known as the Brexit party is a mile in front with 35 per cent. Back nearly 20 points comes the Lib Dems, on 16, then Labour on 15, then the Greens on 10, have you worked out what’s missing yet? Something not quite normal? Yes, behind them all, in fifth place come the Conservatives with a whopping nine per cent of the vote.<br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> And it’s not just the<br> voters who are refusing to support the Conservative Party. 40 <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6943297/Devastating-poll-shows-40-Tory-councillors-Nigel-Farages-new-party.html" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="external noopener noreferrer">per cent of Tory councillors have<br> said that they will go against their own party</a>, in the Euros, and vote for Farrage instead.<br> That’s not just Conservative party members, it’s Conservative members of local<br> councils, and almost half of them are going to vote for a rival party.<br> <br> <br> <br> And within a week of<br> that, the leader of the Conservatives is going to resign, and there must be a<br> leadership contest. They have quite a smart way of electing their leader, I<br> have to say. Conservative MPs vote, and the top two candidates among the MPs<br> are then sent on to a ballot of party rank and file. This is to give the party<br> members a say in the leader, but prevent the crazy situation of electing of<br> someone who the vast majority of party MPs disagree with. Jeremy Corbyn.<br> <br> <br> <br> And those MPs,<br> selecting the two candidates to put to the membership, will be doing it while<br> they are pouring over their local European election results where they will see<br> that, if it were repeated in a general election, the Conservative Party would<br> win ooh, about zero seats.<br> <br> <br> <br> And they will see<br> their voters – and their members and even their councillors defecting in droves<br>
