Summary: Most people will be looking to watch the Super Bowl on Sunday. But for economics mavens, the Super Bowl is today. At 8:30 am the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its annual benchmark revision, along with the monthly employment report. At the same time, manufacturing data, consumer sentiment data, and car sales numbers are coming out. It’s a statistical feast! The benchmark revisions are the most interesting, however. Preliminary numbers last September indicated that the economy had been creating some 30 thousand more jobs per month than previously thought. That’s good, but it hardly makes up for the fact that the economy still currently employs about 4 million fewer workers now than it did at the end of 2007.Just as a review, the monthly employment report is actually two reports: an employer survey, and a household survey. Like any survey, it’s subject to errors: response rates, estimation, processing issues, and so on. So every year the BLS reconciles its data with State unemployment insurance forms and Census Bureau data. The revisions can reach back up to 5 years. Because the monthly survey takes such a large sample size, revisions are typically small—averaging 0.3%. But because the economy since 2008 has been so volatile, this set of revisions should be especially interesting.So while the Ravens / 49ers Harbowl clash will likely be one for the record books, my money is on the BLS. Not only do they tell us where the economy has been and where it is, but they do it with a minimum of drama and no commercial breaks. So break out the wings and hot sauce, the revisions are coming to town!Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA Chief Investment OfficerFollow me on Twitter @GlobalMarketUpd
