Summary: Over the weekend New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo declared a public health emergency due to the influenza outbreak in New York State. Governor Cuomo said this flu season is “the worst since at least 2009”. The number of flu cases has soared 55% and is nearly five times the number from the last season. The flu season is widely viewed as the period between October and May The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has said at least 47 US states have reported flu outbreaks and 24 have experienced high levels of the illness. Going as far as saying the flu has reached epidemic levels. What does it mean to be at epidemic levels? Let’s start with a definition from least to most extensive: Endemic: instances of a disease or condition found among a particular population of people or in a certain area Epidemic: a widespread occurrence of a disease in a regional or geographical area (not limited to a particular population) Pandemic: a widespread occurrence of a disease over a whole country or the world not limited to a particular population. A pandemic can be defined as "An epidemic occurring worldwide or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries, and usually affecting a large number of people(1). Wikipedia says Influenza pandemics occur when a new strain of the influenza virus is transmitted to humans from another animal species. Species that are thought to be important in the emergence of new human strains are pigs, chickens and ducks. These novel strains are unaffected by any immunity people may have to older strains of human influenza and can therefore spread extremely rapidly and infect very large numbers of people. Influenza can occasionally be transmitted from wild birds to other species causing outbreaks in domestic poultry and may give rise to human influenza pandemics. The transportation of influenza viruses throughout the world is thought in part to be by bird migrations, though commercial shipments of live bird products might also be implicated, as well as human travel plans(2). Given modern developments in transportation and travel there is severe risk of the flu outbreaks spreading at a more rapid rate than at any other time in history. The deadliest outbreak of influenza on record is the 1918 Spanish Influenza, which took place in three phases. The first was a spring of 1918, winding down a bit through the summer and coming back very aggressively throughout North America in fall of 1918 and spreading in the third wave through Europe in winter of 1919. There have been a total of 3 documented pandemics in the last century. First the Spanish Flu of 1918, second the Asian Flu of 1957 and third the Hong Kong flu of 1968. Should you as technology and business leaders be considering a Pandemic as a Business Continuity Risk? Yes, your business and all its resources are at tremendous risk and your focus needs to be on your people, process, and products. Although it is impossible to forecast the spread of influenza in any given year, studies suggest that major population centers can expect widespread penetration within 1-2 weeks of the virus’ arrival with its peak only 50 days from the initial entry. The key assumptions recommended by most authorities are: A first wave of the infection, lasting about eight weeks, could affect a third of the population. A second wave could occur about three to nine months later, and could also be followed by other successive waves. You should expect your organization to experience a scenario where about 35% of your staff could fall sick and absenteeism rate up to 50% during the peak. There are actions that can be taken to positively protect you and your businesses and prevent business disruption due to influenza outbreaks within your operating regions. Sir John Harvey-Jones, who is best known for his BBC television show “Troubleshoot” in which he advised struggling businesses(3), is quoted as saying,
