The Americas Quarterly Podcast

The results of Chile's constitutional convention election shook markets and left many wondering what it all meant for the country just as a presidential campaign begins to heat up. Many are hopeful, while others, like this week's guest, Patricio Navia, have concerns. The political scientist joins AQ's Brian Winter to discuss possible pitfalls of the new constitution, and why he is still optimistic about Chile's long-term future. Guests: - Patricio Navia is a contributing columnist for Americas Quarterly, professor of liberal studies at NYU and professor of political science at Diego Portales University in Chile. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "Chile’s Big Gamble Just Got Riskier" by Patricio Navia (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/chiles-big-gamble-just-got-riskier/) "Chile’s Riots: Frustration at the Gate of the Promised Land" by Patricio Navia (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/chiles-riots-frustration-at-the-gate-of-the-promised-land/) "Trapped: What If Chile Ends Up Like Argentina?" by Eduardo Levy Yeyati (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/trapped-what-if-chile-ends-up-like-argentina/)

Kids in Latin America have lost an average of 158 days of face-to-face schooling, with more students out of the classroom than any other region in the world. In Argentina, the debate over when to send kids back to school has gone all the way to the Supreme Court, further polarizing a country reeling from a second wave and the worst inflation in 18 months. Economist Eduardo Levy Yeyati joins the podcast to discuss what’s at stake and give an update on politics and the economy in an election year. Guests: - Eduardo Levy Yeyati is the dean of the School of Government of Universidad Torcuato Di Tella and a nonresident senior fellow at The Brookings Institution. He is a member of the editorial board of Americas Quarterly. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "Back to the 1960s? Education May Be Latin America’s Most Lasting Scar from COVID-19" by Nora Lustig, Guido Neidhöfer and Mariano Tommasi. (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/back-to-the-1960s-education-may-be-latin-americas-most-lasting-scar-from-covid-19/) "Changing Argentina’s Inertia: Is it Possible?" by Eduardo Levy Yeyati. (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/changing-argentinas-inertia-is-it-possible/)

Cuba’s political regime took a step into unknown territory on April 16, when Raúl Castro announced he was stepping down as head of the ruling party. The change comes as the government faces headwinds from an economic crisis worsened by the pandemic, an artist-led protest movement, and a new administration in the U.S. But how much will things really change? Political scientist Javier Corrales joins the AQ Podcast to look ahead at what’s to come. Guests: - Javier Corrales is a professor of political science at Amherst College and a member of the editorial board of Americas Quarterly. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "Cuba’s Racial Reckoning, and What It Means for Biden" by Javier Corrales. (https://americasquarterly.org/article/cubas-racial-reckoning-and-what-it-means-for-biden/)

What’s driving an outbreak of violence on Venezuela’s border with Colombia? What does it say about Nicolás Maduro, who appears stronger than he was six months ago despite a worrying second wave and few vaccines in sight? The International Crisis Group’s Phil Gunson joins the AQ Podcast from Caracas to weigh in on the complex panorama. Guests: - Phil Gunson is the Caracas-based senior analyst at the International Crisis Group. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.

On April 11, Peruvians will head to the polls to elect their fifth president in less than four years. An unpopular, crowded field of candidates adds to the election’s unpredictability. Could the country’s unstable politics finally catch up to its long-resilient economy? Peruvian political analyst Andrea Moncada joins AQ’s Brian Winter to preview the vote – and the risks it entails. Guests: - Andrea Moncada is a political analyst and coordinator of the opinion section of El Comercio. She also teaches politics and international relations at ESAN University in Lima. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "Meet the Candidates: Peru" (https://americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-peru/)

A surge in migrants at the US-Mexico border has become the first big test for President Joe Biden's migration policy. It's also giving new urgency to a $4 billion aid package that he has proposed to tackle the root causes of migration from Central America. But just "throwing money at problems does not solve them," says former Costa Rican President Luis Guillermo Solís, citing problems on the ground such as corruption and democratic backsliding. On this week's episode of the AQ Podcast, Solís offers his ideas on how Washington can work with regional leaders and ensure efforts don't come up short. Guests: - President Luis Guillermo Solís is a former president of Costa Rica and the interim director of the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center at Florida International University. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "Can More U.S. Money Really Help Central America’s Northern Triangle?" By Luis Guillermo Solís (https://americasquarterly.org/article/can-more-u-s-money-really-help-central-americas-northern-triangle/) "It’s Not Just El Salvador. Democracies Are Weakening Across Central America." By Patricio Navia and Lucas Perelló (https://americasquarterly.org/article/the-bigger-reason-to-worry-about-nayib-bukele-and-el-salvador/) "The Pandemic’s Big Winner? Organized Crime" an AQ special report (https://americasquarterly.org/article/new-aq-the-pandemics-big-winner-transnational-crime/)

In the year since President Nayib Bukele marched soldiers into El Salvador’s legislative assembly, his critics say the leader’s threat to democracy has only grown. Now, as legislative elections on Feb. 28 promise Bukele a long-awaited majority, there are fears about what that could mean for checks and balances. In the latest episode of the AQ Podcast, guest host Brendan O’Boyle speaks to lawyer and researcher Claudia Umaña about the election’s stakes, Bukele’s resilient support, and the implications of a new administration in Washington. Guests: -Claudia Umaña is vice president of the Salvadoran Foundation for Economic and Social Development (FUSADES) -Brendan O’Boyle is senior editor of Americas Quarterly Supplemental Reading: "Surprise: El Salvador’s Anti-Corruption Commission Is Alive. But Can It Succeed?" by Noah Bullock and Chuck Call (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/surprise-el-salvadors-anti-corruption-commission-is-alive-but-can-it-succeed/) "Behind Nayib Bukele’s 'Shocking' Turn" by Brendan O'Boyle (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/behind-nayib-bukeles-shocking-turn/) "Q&A: Why El Salvador’s Crisis Is Different – and Worrying" by Brian Winter (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/qa-why-el-salvadors-crisis-is-different-and-worrying/)

Colombia reported some good news in 2020: The country’s homicide rate was its lowest in nearly five decades. But continued violence in rural communities – and a pandemic that is emboldening organized crime – has darkened the mood for many. Veteran foreign correspondent John Otis joins the podcast from Bogotá to break down what’s happening in the countryside and the implications for President Duque – and the coming contest to name his successor. Guests: - John Otis reports from Bogotá for NPR and The Wall Street Journal and is a consultant for the Committee to Protect Journalists. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "School’s Out in Most of Latin America. Gangs Are Thrilled." by John Otis (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/schools-out-in-latin-america-gangs-are-thrilled/) "The Urgent Need to Reform Colombia’s Security Policies" by Juan Pappier (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/the-urgent-need-to-reform-colombias-security-policies/)

There are 16 candidates in Ecuador’s presidential election scheduled for Feb. 7, but polls suggest voters aren’t too excited about any of them. Whoever they settle on will have to work overtime to manage a country battered by a pandemic and a fiscal crisis. Political analyst Sebastián Hurtado joins the podcast to assess the country’s outlook and the leading presidential candidates, including a protégé of Former President Rafael Correa, the “incumbent” candidate who’s never been president, and the “outsider” who could surprise everyone. Guests: - Sebastián Hurtado is the co-founder and CEO of Prófitas, a political risk consultancy based in Quito. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "Meet the Candidates: Ecuador" (https://americasquarterly.org/article/meet-the-candidates-ecuador/) "Who Is Andrés Arauz, Rafael Correa’s Pick to Lead Ecuador?" by Brendan O'Boyle (https://americasquarterly.org/article/andres-arauz-correa-proxy-or-new-leadership-for-ecuador/)

After a year like 2020, no one can confidently predict what the next 12 months will bring Latin America. What's clear, however, is that 2021 may be as transformative for the region as 2020 - for better or worse. The Council on Foreign Relation's Shannon O'Neil joins AQ's Brian Winter to preview the developments to watch in the new year, including the challenges of vaccine distribution, the questions looming over this year's critical elections, and the potential for collaboration with a new administration in Washington. Guests: -Shannon O’Neil is vice president and senior fellow for Latin America at the Council on Foreign Relations. -Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "A Less Apocalyptic Case for Latin America," by Brian Winter (https://americasquarterly.org/article/a-less-apocalyptic-case-for-latin-america/)

When Luis Arce swore in as Bolivia's president a month ago, he confronted a dizzying host of challenges: a public health emergency, a polarized electorate, and an economy crippled by the pandemic. But Arce's first weeks in office have left many cautiously optimistic, including journalist Raúl Peñaranda, who sees the emergence of a "minimalistic" government that's less vengeful than he expected. On this week's podcast, Peñaranda discusses Arce's first month, the return of Evo Morales, the encouraging judicial reforms on the horizon, and the challenges of vaccine distribution and getting kids back in school. Guests: -Raúl Peñaranda is a Bolivian journalist and director of the news portal Brújula Digital. -Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "Will Luis Arce Rebuild Bolivia’s Broken Judiciary?" (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/will-luis-arce-rebuild-bolivias-broken-judiciary/)

The arrest – and return – of General Salvador Cienfuegos by U.S. authorities were both surprising developments in what has already turned out to be an unpredictable U.S.-Mexico relationship under Presidents Donald Trump and Andrés Manuel López Obrador. But a “reevaluation of the Mexican approach” is likely in store when the Joe Biden administration takes over, says the Wilson Center’s Duncan Wood. Guests: -Duncan Wood is director of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center. -Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "Latin America’s Militaries Are Back. What Does it Mean?" (https://www.americasquarterly.org/fulltextarticle/new-aq-latin-americas-militaries-are-back-what-does-it-mean/)

Joe Biden - not Donald Trump - will be the next U.S. president. What does that mean for Trump's biggest fan in South America, Jair Bolsonaro? How might a Biden victory change Brazil's relationship with China? AQ columnist Oliver Stuenkel joins editor-in-chief Brian Winter to break down what life after Trump could really mean for the Brazilian president and his base. Guests: -Oliver Stuenkel is a contributing columnist for Americas Quarterly and teaches international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo. -Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "Why a Trump Defeat Would Be a Disaster for Bolsonaro" by Oliver Stuenkel (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/why-a-trump-defeat-would-be-a-disaster-for-bolsonaro/) "Joe Biden Answers 10 Questions on Latin America" (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/updated-2020-candidates-answer-10-questions-on-latin-america/)

Chileans voted overwhelmingly to embark on what will be a long, expensive and imperfect journey to a new constitution. Despite the challenges, there's plenty of reason for optimism, says author and journalist Paula Schmidt. AQ's Brian Winter spoke with Schmidt about what we can expect next, the new constitution's potential to help close Chile's gender gap, and the marginalized community that Schmidt fears is being left out of the process. Guests: -Paula Schmidt is a journalist, a columnist in the digital newspaper El Líbero, and a professor at Chile’s Universidad de Los Andes. -Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. Supplemental Reading: "The Politics of Chile’s New Constitution" by Patricio Navia (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/the-politics-of-chiles-new-constitution/)

Like his presidency in general, Donald Trump’s relationship with Latin America has not been without surprises. Among them: his unexpectedly close relationship with some of the region’s key leaders. But how have US-Latin America relations really changed under Trump – and where might they be headed if Trump surprises again and wins reelection? Juan Cruz, a former special advisor to the president, gave AQ’s Brian Winter an insider’s view on Trump’s approach to the region. Guests: - Juan Cruz is a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic & International Studies and the former point person on Latin America at the National Security Council under President Trump. - Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly Supplemental Listening: "AQ Podcast: What a Biden Presidency Would Mean for Latin America" (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/aq-podcast-what-a-biden-presidency-would-mean-for-latin-america/)