The Pollsters

Thanks for all your hard work on your micro-assignments! We shuffle our papers in salute. Here’s micro-assignment #2: Go to NPR’s Earbud.FM & suggest they add us to their list of recommended shows. It’ll only take 60 seconds! The link is here. And if you take a screen shot and send it to us, we’ll give you a shoutout!.   Post-Paris Polling Reuters and others have some early polling suggesting an immediate bump in the salience of terrorism. There is also some fascinating historical polling from the 1930s about accepting refugees. Will this debate fall into traditional fault lines around race and inclusiveness? We hope not, for everyone’s sake. Reuters/Ipsos on important issue Reuters/Ipsos on which party has best plan Reuters story about recent polling @Histopinion goes viral Washington Post story on PRRI poll   Dem debate There was a Democratic debate last Saturday, and three different post-debate polls tell three different stories. The truth probably somewhere in the middle. PPP post-debate poll CBS News/GfK poll WSJ/GCS poll Quinnipiac Colorado Poll Gallup most important issue   NBC’s Chuck Todd Chuck Todd doesn’t mince word when talking about the industry. He sounds off on bad polls, self-policing, and the struggle with new polling experimentation. Chuck Todd   GOP primary Seems pretty volatile on the Republican side. What’s next for Carson, Trump, Rubio & the gang? The Hill polling overview Huffington Post/pollster tracker   Pew News The fine folks at Pew released two interesting reports this week about methodology--one on Latinos and one on improving phone samples. We’ll know you want to check them both out. Pew Latino methodology report Pew advances in telephone sampling   Ladies--study up! Some depressing news about a gender gap in computer science & in financial literacy.Gallup shows girls are less interested in computers. Not only that, parents & teachers say girls are less interested & they’ll be less successful. And the gender gap in financial literacy is larger in the US than the worldwide average. This all makes us sad. Gallup on girls and computers Gallup on worldwide financial literacy   AirBnB and Cuba If everyone you know likes to use AirBnB or wants to go to Cuba, then you’re probably younger and wealthier, according to recent polls. AirBnB More Millennials want to go to Cuba   Key Findings The polling on terrorism, Syrian refugees is moving quickly, even if it along familiar fault lines. No debates for a while! Doesn’t mean there’s any shortage of polls showing both volatility & some consensus-building. Meet the Chuck! Chuck Todd gives the industry some tough talk on transparency and methodology. Follow Pew for their in-depth methodological reports, to make sure you’re buying the right sample & hiring the right interviewers. Macro-assignment: teach a girl to code. and how to invest. Air BnB: thrifty travel for the upper-income set. How Margie is like a millennial: the Cuba edition.

You guys are podcast-hipsters! Like the people who did swing dancing before Swingers. Or the people who have been doing paddleboard yoga for years. So we need your help to get more people to listen to our show. We’d love to double, or even triple, the number of listeners by the time 2016 voting begins. Can you help by doing these free 60-second micro-assignments? The first one: write a review on Stitcher. You don’t need to be a Stitcher user. But it will make it so people can stumble upon our show. Here’s the link.   2016: Let’s get serious. The Republicans had a real debate this time! But how will the polls react? What about insta-polls and insta-groups? We’re going to talk about hte Dem primary next week, but check out some cool charts the Washington Post made using general election crosstabs. Post-debate poll in Time Luntz FG/NH Monmouth/SC IA CNN poll Cool charts from the Washington Post/Marist/McLatchy Marist   Polling: What is it good for? Absolutely Nothing? Lots of people worrying about the future of polling. One thing is for sure, there is way more polling coverage. Is this good for democracy? We say yes, others are less sure. Jill lepore’s New Yorker story NYT worries about polling quality.   Recent veteran polling. We record on Veterans Day and check out some polling about recent vets’ experiences getting help. It’s actually more positive than you might think. WP/Kaiser past polling among veterans   Millennials and government jobs. Are Millennials less interested in government jobs than other generations? And what would attract them, other than pets at work, free dry cleaning, and free breakfasts? We ask our resident Millennial: Kristen. Millennials and government jobs/Deloitte study The Selfie Vote   A segment from our live show @ Georgetown: What are women’s issues anyway? The Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service kicked off their women in politics speaker series with us! We recorded the whole show, and have included a clip here. We had great questions! Georgetown University IPPS   Now hair this. Should Kristen get her haircut? Obviously, we consult the experts--the public. Take that polling haters! Gallup '71 on men's hair Daily Mail on women's hair Harper's Bazaar on celebrity hair More celebrity hair! Man buns (!?)   Key findings: Voters say they wanted a serious debate, & it looks like they got one. But not sure we’ll see big movements in the top-tier, no matter what Carson bombshell drops. As the pollsters, we of course think polls are useful. But it’s up to us as the industry to make sure we’re helping people vet good polling from bad. We loved going to Georgetown! And we want to see women’s issues be more inclusive: not just abortion/birth control, not just for women, and not just for Democrats.. Long hair is a pain. Polls show many like it in theory, but actually support shorter hair in practice. You’ll have to follow Kristen on IG in order to see how this turns out. Your 60 sec assignment! Write a review for The Pollsters on twitter. You podcast-hipsters you.      

Lots of exciting stuff coming up for The Pollsters! Our first live show at Georgetown Institute of Politics & Public Service. And we have lots of great interviews teed up for the next few weeks. Make sure you subscribe so you don’t miss the action!   The Shark Tank Debate None of the CNBC debate moderators were dubbed “Mr/Ms. Wonderful” after last week’s debate. Rubio, Cruz and maybe Christie surged, Carson and remains strong. But what about Jeb? Huffington Post/YouGov on post-debate reax NBC/WSJ poll WBUR NH pol   The Post-Hearing Clinton Surge After the Dem debate and Benghazi hearing coverage have settled in, Clinton seems to be on the upswing, even in New Hampshire. NBC/WSJ National poll Monmouth/NH Dem poll 60 Minutes/Vanity fair   But Carson’s Strong in the General No matter what the press throws at him, Carson remains the strongest candidate in the general. NBC/WSJ National poll Quinnipiac National poll   Mass Media Appeal Trust in the media continues to decline, across age groups and party. No wonder candidates see a bounce when they pick a fight with it. And “poll” is a controversial word! Who knew!? Gallup on media Emotion and media bias Controversy and Sentiment in Online News.   The Red-Grass State? Kentucky had a big election Tuesday night, and Republican Matt Bevin won despite most polls pointing to Conway. What happened? Survey USA KY poll Fabrizio Lee KY poll Vox Populi KY poll Harry Enten @538 weighs in   Walmart Moms: We Interview Neil Newhouse We talk to GOP Pollster Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies about his & Margie’s ongoing collaboration studying Walmart Moms. And he gives us his straight talk about what happened in Kentucky. Bloomberg on Walmart Moms MSNBC on Walmart Moms ABC on Walmart Moms   Christmas! Coming sooner. Perhaps less religious. Pew finds a drop in religiosity. And others find an increase in Christmas spending & Christmas Creep. Related? Probably not. Pew on religiosity Christmas Creep CNBC NRF Christmas Creep Gallup poll on planned Christmas spending   Key Findings: Clinton, Carson, and Rubio surge. While Bush and the moderators were the losers of last week’s CNBC debate But in the general, Carson still remains strong, and Clinton & Sanders almost evenly matched. Walmart moms across party lines feel few candidates are paying attention to their own shared struggles. What’s teh matter with polling in Kentucky? Everyone seems to remember pollings misses more than its hits. Christmas polling comes earlier every year, even while religiosity declines

Don’t forget to write us a review on iTunes or Stitcher (or both!). We also have some fun interviews and events in the works. Make sure to keep up with us on Twitter and Facebook (and Kristen and Margie’s Twitter accounts) so you have all the latest.   Congrats to the all-lady team at Huffington Post/pollster Go team!   2016, GOP Side: Carson now beats Trump nationally. But which candidate has the steepest slope? And how does Iowa compare to New Hampshire and South Carolina? Most importantly, what does America’s pollster think? Get your pre-debate handicapping here. CBS/YouGov 3-state poll (GOP) Monmouth Iowa poll (GOP) CBS/NYT national poll Huffington Post/pollster (National) Gallup on GOP favorables Trump on the polls (pt1) Trump on the polls (pt2) Trump on his pollster   2016, Dem Side: Clinton has had a strong few weeks. Although the national numbers look different than individual state numbers. And sample methodology makes a huge impact in the results. CBS/YouGov 3-state polls Monmouth Iowa (Dems) Huffington Post/Pollster (National) Huffington Post/Pollster (Iowa) Huffington Post/Pollster (New Hampshire) NBC/WSJ (national)   Campaign finance may have its moment? In two early primary states a (slim) plurality of Dems say they want to see the next President reform campaign finance. Even GOP worried their party too close to donors. CBS/YouGov 3-state poll   Now Hear This Several polls weigh in on how people view the Benghazi hearings--before the 11-hour marathon. Not surprisingly, high “don’t knows” for this one. CNN/ORC on Benghazi NBC/WSJ on Benghazi   Speak To Me What do Republicans want out of an incoming Speaker? Compromise--or standing up for principles? Well, not surprisingly, question wording makes a big difference here. NBC/WSJ on Speaker NH/Bloomberg/NHIOP poll Gallup on Speaker Gallup on Tea Party   Candy! What’s scarier: candy corn? Or Reeses’ cups for the allergy-prone? We tackle the tough Halloween issues. Huffington Post/YouGov on Candy   Key Findings: America’s pollster is worried he’s slipping to #2. Can he pull out a win in the debate?And how often will he say “poll” onstage. Clinton is staying above the fray, and higher in the polls as a result. Campaign finance may have its moment. And Paul Ryan may have his. Meanwhile--there’s yet another divisive issue sweeping the country: candy corn.  

Hello new listeners & subscribers! We love feedback, so don’t forget to write a review on iTunes or Stitcher, or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. And our Soundcloud page now has a great archive.   More Dem post-game When is a bump a bump? Clinton won the debate, but not every poll shows her gaining in the vote. Globe/WMUR poll in NH Herald/Franklin Pierce NH NBC/Survey Monkey Huff Post/YouGov CNN/ORC WP/ABC poll NBC/WSJ poll Bloomberg Politics/St Anselm/Purple NH poll   GOP debate pre-game On the Republican side, many thought Trump’s bubble was bursting. Looks like the joke’s on us all. NBC/WSJ poll CNN/ORC Bloomberg Politics poll   These guys know about the bump Pope Francis & John Boenher have a lot in common. In fact, both their favorables improved after their meeting a few weeks ago. Gallup on Pope Francis visit John Boehner rebounds   Victory (for the pollsters!) in Canada Good news for the industry: Canadian pollsters called the popular vote just about exactly right. We talk to Elizabeth Sena from GQRR about her work in the ridings. Canadian polling   The latest on guns After every tragic shooting, outlets re-test a battery of questions on guns. The results from Gallup’s recent questioning are mixed. Gallup on 3-way gun question Gallup on concealed weapons Gallup on single-issue voters on guns   Millennial parents Oh, millennials. You know them, posting photos of their kids on Facebook, buying gender-neutral toys, using social media more than everyone else. If you’re still confused, buy Kristen’s book. Time magazine/Survey monkey poll Pew on social media usage The Selfie Vote   Key Findings The Democratic debate: Where a win can be both a win and a draw. Republicans say: don’t bump that Trump bubble quite yet! We can really learn about a post-event bump from BFF Pope Francis & Speaker Boehner. In Canada, it seems pollsters can take a bow.   While the Democratic electorate has a debate over guns, there may be more single-issue voters on the GOP side. Finally! Some poll results that make Margie feel young.

The Democrats debated! The press seems unified in who they think won. But voters perhaps say something else? And what are the trends in online polling, and all things Canada?   Dem debate post-game Every outlet gives the ribbon to Clinton. But Sanders wins online and in post-debate groups. Fox News/Luntz focus group CNN focus group Sanders gained more twitter followers Sanders gains more google searches Sanders wins Google Consumer Surveys CNN/ORC Nevada & SC polls   Trade/TPP Last week Chuck Todd grilled us on TPP and Democrats, but voters don’t seem particularly interested. Trade not a big search during debate Gallup polling on TPP Pew polling on TPP     Welcome to Snoozeville   Not too much action on the GOP side this week. We do revisit the GOP Bloomberg/Purple Groups, and see which GOP candidates are earning the most trust. Bloomberg/Purple groups: Carson Bloomberg/Purple groups: Bush CBS national poll/GOP     15 for Pres, NOBODY for Speaker Lots of people want the top spot, and pretty much no one wants the #3 spot. And can you blame them, with poll numbers like these? CBS national poll/GOP     An interview with Nick Nanos about the Canadian election So while you might think of US politics & polling as a little rough & tumble, Margie interviewed top Canadian pollster Nick Nanos from Nanos Research--and what he says about Canadian polling & politics might surprise you.   Nanos Research   LA Times moving online Another sign that media outlets may be moving online: The LA Times is experimenting with the methodology. LA Times experiment   We poll therefore we are A study appearing in the New York Times suggests an easy fix for the gender divide in tech. Coffee makers and cool t-shirts! NYT on gender and tech   Mama! Mum! Stop Cursing! Ford asks European kids what annoys them about their parents. Besides everything. European kids’ top travel gripes   Key Findings The Democratic debate winner depends on who you ask. But few are asking about the candidates’ views on TPP. The most exciting Republican race this week is the one with no candidates. Canada is the “wild wild west” of polling, but if they offer $15/day child care, Margie’s moving. LA Times jumps into the warm pool of online polling. If you want ladies in your lab, try some nature posters and plants. Whether you curse or pick your nose or sing, your kids probably find you annoying.

The pollsters are everywhere! We crossed paths at the Institute for Politics at St. Anselm’s in New Hampshire. And we’ve been on the new Meet the Press Daily. Margie will be doing some Dem debate coverage at Huffington Post next week. And Kristen will be on the soon-to-be-different Up with Steve Kornacki. Also don’t forget to write a review on iTunes or Stitcher, or follow us on Twitter or Facebook.   2016/Dems: Will Joe Show? Recent polling shows Biden strong in the general--but can he make it out of the primary? New focus groups suggest it’s not necessarily smooth sailing. Bloomberg Politics/Purple Strategies focus groups NBC/WSJ/Marist   2016/Carson: The Carson experience? While Trump may be tumbling, Carson continues to stay strong. He’s even the preferred candidate for primary voters who prioritize experience. What? And what does this all mean for the debate? NBC/WSJ/Marist: Politico: The GOP debate implications   2016/General We try to explain the Carson phenomenon. A poll where “ballsy” is an answer. And Gallup makes a big, big decision. Gallup: government on traditional values Suffolk/USA Today national poll Pew Research on campaign climate Politico: Gallup gives up the horserace   Death with Dignity California passes a new bill on death with dignity. Polls show this on the move, even when it’s asked in an outdated way. Pew Research on aid in dying   Gender Sheryl Sandberg’s group Lean In and consulting firm McKinsey team up for an extensive--but perhaps dispiriting--look at gender in the workforce. Lean In/McKinsey   Most annoying travelers: Are you an annoying traveler? Check the data (or maybe just say “yes”). Expedia study of travel etiquette   Key findings: BIden mania! But can he get through the primary? Sanders mania! But can he get through the general? And Carson mania! Right now strong in both the primary and the general. One thing we know, even without a Gallup horserace, there are still plenty of horserace polls. Stay tuned for more Canada news next week. And be a good hotel guest please! Keep your flirting online--like the kids--rather than annoying all your fellow travelers.

It’s International Podcast Day! Have you sent out all your cards & gifts? Don’t forget to write us a review on Stitcher or iTunes, or follow us on Twitter or Facebook.   2016 Trump has a classy pollster. Meanwhile, slow and Rubio wins the race? Are you ready for some Biden? We take a question from activist Deray McKesson. And Kristen has a new poll showing Republicans agree climate change is happening. NBC/WSJ Echelon Insights poll on climate change Huffington Post/pollster average NYT: Focus group of one   Boehner: Out. Anger: In.   Boehner has resigned, but it judging by these numbers, it’ll take a lot more to turn around these sad Gallup numbers on how people view our government. Gallup - Majority want a third party Gallup - Trust in media at record low Gallup - To know Congress is to hate Congress Gallup - People don’t even trust their own Member of Congress anymore Bloomberg Politics/Selzer   So let’s shut the whole thing down? Well, not quite. Most people oppose shutting down the government to stop funding for Planned Parenthood. Even Republicans. Quinnipiac CBS/NYT Pew   More Canada! Listeners, you’ve spoken, and you want more data on Canada. We’re here to deliver. Apparently releasing a poll publicly is “guerrilla warfare.” It’ll take more than that to raise an eyebrow in these parts. Canada poll-tracker Huffington Post Globe & Mail story on “questionable results”   The most current polling on OJ Simpson. We know you’ve been wondering: what is the polling on OJ Simpson these days? Well, the Post has been wondering too. WP/ABC on OJ   Hey, what’s up listeners? We love it when dating apps release their data. They should be called dating data apps. And among which group can talking about Taylor Swift get you a date?   Vox   Key Findings: Our best pollsters pickup line may be, “Who would you prefer to go to Canada with: Taylor Swift, Katy Perry, or Ben Carson?” Our worst pickup line: “Hey, what’s up Donald Trump?” And that may be how he begins his focus groups of one. If you’re feeling despondent about the government, like most of Americans—celebrate International Podcast Day instead. But we (and most Americans) hope you don’t have too much free time on your hands with a government shutdown.  

Fiorina is on fire while Walker collapses. But the biggest political news this week is not the Presidential race.   Fiorina on fire Fiorina turned in a great performance. That may be necessary, but is it sufficient? And kids want to know: does she live in a castle? And are Biden supporters celebrating this week? Morning Consult poll/debate watchers CNN poll/Dems Bloomberg/Selzer poll/Dems   The Pope’s Poll-Mobile Tons of polling out on the Pope. No doubt he’s popular. But both Catholics and non-Catholics like his open, authentic tone. Echelon Insights/Hart Research/Shriver Report YouGov Pew Marist PRRI CBS News Washington Post Gallup   More polling, eh? Are you guys & gals following this election? Tweet us & let us know! Like how we have “538” here...they have “ThreeHundredEight”! Echelon Insights monitors Canadian Twitter action   Pew says online methodology catching up Online polling is catching up with telephone, says Pew. At least the way they do it. Pew methodological report   Fall is the best, because polling. We’re partial to solstices. But also Fall. Boot weather! YouGov on Fall   Read this If you must email, keep subject lines short. And if you’ve made it this far, you’re probably not a Millennial. Email subject length   Key Findings Trump and Clinton still lead. But good weeks for BIden, Fiorina, and Rubio. Pope-mania is sweeping the country. Politicians could learn a lot from him. A tied race in Canada. Sounds excting! Online surveys: yes. Emails: no. Boot weather is here!

Get ready for an All-American pageant known as a presidential debate. Who has been Pumpkin Spice with everything nice? We discuss.   Debate pregame Get ready to tailgate, or homegate, for the latest Republican debate. Where’s Walker? And is there trouble in Trumplandia? Meanwhile, Clinton is feeling the Bern, but is it really about those emails? Monmouth/NH GOP poll Monmouth/NH Dem poll: NYT/CBS Marist/MSNBC/Telemundo poll Gallup trump & religious GOPs CBS news poll on Biden CBS News Poll on GOP & Dem contests YouGov on coup   No gotcha questions for pageant contestants  If finally a candidate could answer a question succinctly and correctly. Where is such a place? Ah, the Miss America pageant! Washington Post on pageant answers, ranked Washinton Post/ABC poll on Kim DavisGallup on pageants    The NFL is back, and NFL polling is back. What is this football thing about which Kristen speaks? Thankfully, Margie can refer to some polling to help her figure it out. ESPN survey of players Tailgating survey   It’s always bipartisan in California. Maybe. Some recent polling on the droughts in California suggests there may be some bipartisanship on views toward the cause of the draught, but maybe not on the solution. Meanwhile, what does this mean for Jerry Brown? GQR, USC & American Viewpoint survey   Pumpkin spice and everything nice.  Pumpkin spice everything is headed your way. Do you have your emergency preparedness kit? Forbes data on the Pumpkin Spice Invasion   White after Labor Day = yes. Dressy yoga pants = no. Even fashion is getting in on the polling act. No longer need to poll your friends or officemates. Except if you want to wear office-ready yoga pants. Because that's just wrong. Poll on white after Labor Day Marist polling for Fashion Week   Key findings: Lots of candidates feeling some sort of bern--whether it’s from Sanders or a barb from Trump. Can we be bipartisan against droughts? What about coups? Maybe? Fashion and football are great areas for polling, but if you’re confused by the polls, just ask a beauty queen.  

Hi new listeners! Last week was our best rated show ever--by a lot! So thanks again to Ann Selzer for a great interview. And welcome! If you haven’t already folks, please write a review on iTunes or on Stitcher--it makes a huge difference as to whether people find us. Or tweet out that you like the show.   2016: We wanted to give a little bit of a break to 2016, with the CNN GOP debate next week, and post-debate polling to cover. But there was so much, we couldn’t help it. Trump and Carson continue to dominate. But Kasich surges in New Hampshire, while Bush and Walker continue to falter. On the Democratic side, Sanders leads for the first time in Iowa. But we’re still not convinced voters are rejecting Clinton. And Biden is strong too.   CNN/ORC polling Quinnipiac polling NBC/Marist toplines for NH & IA. New Monmouth National  poll/Dems Gallup polling on Clinton favorability Labor Day Views toward labor unions seem to surge, but that doesn’t mean voters are optimistic about labor’s future. And the most effective economic policy may be reducing gender pay discrepancies. That would suit women just fine.   Gallup on union ratings Gallup on POTUS ratings among union members Gallup on gender pay equity Gallup on popular economic policies   Someone else not working on Labor Day Is Kim Davis a good general election strategy? Is it even a good primary strategy?   Huffington Post/YouGov on Kim Davis   Millennials: “Who are you calling a Millennial”? Kristen wrote the book on Millennials. Literally! What does she think about Millennials not wanting to be called Millennials?   Pew study on generation labels YouGov: ⅓ of young Americans not completely straight Pew on use of messaging apps (& instant delete messaging apps) Pew Catholics open to nontraditional families   Gallup’s got your back. Get it? These numbers are better than Margie’s jokes.   Gallup on Chiropractors   This new regulation probably changes everything about research Should you start panicking about the new FCC regulations on the way pollsters reach respondents? Listen to this interview with Howard Fienberg from the Market Research Association and then decide.   The MRA   Key findings Oh, we tried to give everyone a little break from 2016. Or a little break from Trump. Maybe next week, or maybe a few weeks from now… Any pollsters or handicappers who said Sanders had hit his ceiling, or said Trump had hit his ceiling...well, you’re welcome on our show anytime for a mea culpa. (This means you 538 & Upshot. And everyone!) Pro-tip: Millennials don't want to be called Millennials. Meanwhile, polls suggest voters may want to talk about income inequality, and gender in the workplace, but not Kim Davis?  

Welcome new listeners! Don’t forget to write us a review on Stitcher or iTunes so others can more easily find the show.   2016: Iowans are trying to make Sanders and Carson happen.   So this big news this weekend is a Des Moines Register poll showing Clinton

This week Kristen has some family time and we have a special guest co-host of Kellyanne Conway of the polling company/WomanTrend. Kristen will be back next week.   2016: We revisit four questions about Trump-mania. And get ready for Biden-mania?   Is it real? Will it last? What’s behind it? How does it affect the Republican brand? Both Biden and Sanders are doing better in the polls. But does that really mean Clinton is vulnerable?   NYT/Upshot/Civis studies Trump Monmouth South Carolina poll Luntz focus group of Trump voters) Pew shows 1/4 unfavorable to both parties 538 on Sanders PPP/New Hampshire poll Gallup on Hispanics' view of GOP field Suffolk/IA poll Quinnipiac national poll   Guns   Before the tragic shooting of two reporters Pew released some tracking of views on guns. Widespread agreement about specific gun proposals, yet the dialogue remains partisan. Pew on guns Gallup on parents and school safety   Back to school   It’s back to school, and back to polling. Kellyanne and Margie agree on something, prompting Beckett to fall asleep.   Gallup/PDK survey on public schools   Key Findings   Maybe the Dem primary is getting more interesting than the GOP primary? Could that be? The polling on stronger gun laws doesn’t change much, and sadly the number of gun crimes doesn’t seem to change much either. On education, there is more agreement than disagreement across demographic and party lines--even on our own show!

Welcome new subscribers! You came just in time for silly season!   2016 (Dem edition):   Some good news for Biden? And are Clinton email stories driving--or simply reflecting--the current climate?   CNN on the Dem candidates Fox News poll on Clinton emails Monmouth on Clinton emails Gallup on Biden Quinnipiac 3-state general election poll   2016 (GOP edition): Trump is still the headline, but a clearer picture emerges as to his ability to damage the party. And as Fiorina rises, Walker sinks. Should other candidates adopt Trump-ism on immigration? What about Republican issue stalwarts like labor unions or Planned Parenthood?   KSA in The Daily Beast CNN on GOP primary Gallup on immigration NBC/WSJ on immigrationGallup on unions Reuters on Planned Parenthood funding Welcome to CrazyTown! So i guess it’s summer silly season. Because in addition to all these polls we have feuds & fake candidates. "Deez Nuts" grabbing voters in PPP poll Trump: Pollsters make $200K a month Luntz vs Stone vs. Trump in Politico   You need a friend--to help you wax? How many of these things would you do for a friend, even if it’s national friendship week? How many would Kristen and Margie do for each other? Skout survey on friendship Key findings: Maybe in a few months we’ll be talking about Biden vs. Fiorina? Given Trump’s vulnerabilities, Republican candidates may not want to follow him off the issue cliff. For 200K/month, we’ll help you figure it all out! And we’ll even split it! (bargain!) Friendship may mean help with waxing or cats, but in DC it means twitter fights, splitting big retainers, & writing amazon or iTunes reviews.

Last week we had our biggest download day ever! So now some debate post-game to follow up that pre-game.   Feeling the Bern in New Hampshire   The latest polling shows Sanders up in New Hampshire, but the interesting data is beneath the surface.   Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald NH Dem Poll CNN/ORC poll IA Dem poll   Trump: 1st is the Worst   More people said trump did worst job in debate than said best job. Yet why is he still leading? Two recent online polls shed some light, including one from Kristen’s firm Echelon Insights. We also talk about the growing acceptance of online poll methodology, including Google Consumer Surveys.   MSNBC/Survey Monkey poll CNN/ORC IA GOP poll Echelon Insights poll Washington Post/Monkey Cage   Pessimism on race   Both Gallup and Pew show more now worried about race relations. Although there are a few silver linings on hopes for the future.   Gallup on race: Release #1Release #2 Pew poll on race   Work/Life balancing acts   There’s no shortage of studies on work-life balance. Washington Post and the New York times make the economic case, and others show some interesting demographic breakouts.   Washington Post Poll on work after kids NYT article on millennial dads NYT Upshot 8/10 article - Can Family Leave Policies Be Too Generous?   Key Findings   NH is feeling the Bern! But the interesting stuff is beneath the surface. Trump is still strong in the polls. Despite having the worst debate performance. Go figure. Across the board people are worried about racial tensions. And we still see major gender divides and struggles over work-life balance. Perhaps whatever the topic, online studies are improving.