The Pollsters

It's our first move into our new twice/week format, with our interview with John Aristotle Phillips of Predictit. We dig into the world of political predictive markets, and talk about John's career building voter technology, and his early start into politics. 

The polls have closed, and the responses are in: 39% want a longer show that combines interviews with our regular briefing & 52% want a sep show for the interview. and 9% said “fewer interviews, bah humbug!” So--you’ve spoken! And we’re listening. So starting next week we’ll have two episodes a week: one with interviews & one without.   Number of the week: Is feminism anti-men. Sadly, some men think so. We’re not anti-men, we want what you got! YouGov on feminism   NV in our rear-view mirror. Where to next? Echelon calls SC using IVR. Pollsters get NV right after all. The GOP circus is headed to Texas, Florida & Ohio. The Dem circus is headed to Texas, Colorado, Oklahoma & Massachusetts. Get ready! OH GOP poll/Quinnipiac FL GOP poll/Quinnipiac Echelon Insights on Medium/SC poll TX GOP poll TX GOP poll/Monmouth Fox national Dem poll HuffPo Primary averages HuffPo General averages   Latino Decisions The news out of NV for both contests was what happened with the Latino vote. But Latinos are far from monolithic, entrance polls are still polls, and both Pew and the Washington Post/Univision add context. Washington Post/Univision poll Pew on Millennials & Latinos McLatchy on NV Dem battle over Latinos Trump winning Latinos in NV   SCOTUS I guess we’ll need to do a weekly SCOTUS segment? There’s lots of new polling. HuffPo on question wording Pew on SCOTUS PPP on OH, PA SCOTUS impact   Apple of the FBI’s eye Hey! We found an issue on which Ds and Rs agree! Pew on Apple vs. FBI   Ask a Millennial: What big news about Millennials almost beat “man sneaks into luntz focus group” on our Facebook page? We ask our resident Millennial: Kristen. Although perhaps on this front Margie is more like a Millennial? USA Today on wine The Selfie Vote   Even dog-owners don’t want dogs in bars. Dogs in a bar: no. Dogs at a dog-happy hour at a bar? Uh, maybe? Cats a grocery store? No! America, you’ve spoken. No dogs at a bar, says YouGov   Key findings! Buckle your seat belts for March Madness! Even by next week we’ll have a clearer idea where the race is going. But no one knows right now where the November race is going--don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Meanwhile, the SCOTUS fight is already heated & it’s barely even started. Other things not heated: Apple vs. the government. Dogs at bars. Meanwhile, Millennials aren’t all bad. They drink wine don’t they?

Listeners! We have a question. Well, actually a survey. We have so many wonderful interviews queued up. But sometimes the interviews get a little long. Do you want them integrated into longer regular weekly episodes? Or as standalone episodes, meaning shorter episodes twice a week? Take our Twitter poll: @thepollsters.     Poll of the week: Now Fear This! Now that people are coming to terms with a Trump nomination somewhere between likely to certain, some pollsters are asking how people feel about this: Scared? Or really really Scared? As often in this Presidential race, we turn to Canada. Canadian poll on fear USA Today/Suffolk on fear   Dem Side: Firewall? Does HC have a firewall? And if so, is it Nevada, SC, Super Tuesday, Super Delegates? Something else? We thought we’d have to wait all the way till Saturday for some more public polling in NV but PHEW! There is some. CNN/ORC NV poll Twitter NE voter sentiment, study shows Huffington Post/Pollster: NV Dem contest Huffington Post/Pollster: SC Dem contest Huffington Post/Pollster: National Dem contest NBC/Survey Monkey national poll with race breakouts Gallup on Dem candidate favs by race   GOP side: Fireproof? Trump continues to breathe fire & not get burned. He can be a 9/11 Truther, or an Internet Troll, it simply doesn’t matter. And his base in SC seems ready to go even farther. Huffington Post/Pollster: National GOP contest Huffington Post/Pollster: SC GOP contest PPP Poll in SC Bloomberg/Purple SC focus group   The Supremes No new polling (yet!) on the all but certain Scalia replacement showdown. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t something from the archives! Gallup on Scalia, Supreme Court   You guys forgot too. We kinda snoozed last week by not mentioning the Grammys, Valentine’s Day, OR President’s Day. But it looks like we’re not alone. Rasmussen on President's Day YouGov on the Grammys NRF on Valentine’s Day experiences   Key Findings The Democratic race is narrowing, but can it narrow fast enough for Sanders? The Republican race is winnowing, but can it winnow enough to defeat Trump? Whatever candidate you fear, we all fear week-long stretches without polling. Soon the other half of America will be hearing a lot more about the late Justice Scalia. Did you miss the Grammy’s? President’s Day? Polls show like us, you probably did too.  

With New Hampshire in our rear-view mirror, Pollsters, take a bow. And then take a moment to write a review on iTunes, or follow us on Twitter or Facebook.   In New Hampshire, the winner is: Pollsters! The pollsters were right this time around. Are you surprised? We’re not! Decision-Desk HQ Final exit polls Joe Lenski from Edison Huffington Post/Pollster trends   We’re all news junkies now Pew says almost everyone is getting news about 2016. (Hey, but what about podcasts?)   2016! You can’t escape it!   We’re all revolutionaries now People seem open to a “political revolution” but also fear big government. Try reconciling that. Vox/morning consult   Ask a Millennial! Do Millennial women just go to the candidates “where the boys are”? We discuss. Jill Filipovic article The Selfie Vote   Key Findings Take a bow, pollsters! Just like about 7 or so remaining candidates, we live to fight another day. And by the way, be thankful that person breathing down your neck while you’re crunching the numbers is not ALL OF AMERICA. Because then you’d be Joe Lenski. We asked a Millennial if young women vote according to where the boys are. She said no. I’m sure this means this won’t come up again. People are more worried about big government than big business. But yet want to expand government. One of the many reasons nearly all of America is gripped to the news this election season.

We made it to our 50th episode! If you like what we’re doing, don’t forget to write a review on iTunes, submit our show to NPR’s earbud.fm, or on @thepollsters on Twitter & Facebook.   The polls of the week: Good news/bad news for Trump A day without Trump polling in the news, is like a day without, uh, Trump polling in the news. The Trump effect on federal employees Bloomberg/Purple on Trump shooting someone   What happened in Iowa? We took a break from listening to pollsters to listen to voters. And the lesson was...the pollsters were wrong? Is the sky really falling? We walk through six theories and observations. FiveThirtyEight on post-Iowa polling FiveThirtyEight on Iowa being hard to poll Media shares blame (Huffington Post) Echelon online sentiment Kristen’s Medium post Washington Post graphic visual of voters Mark Blumenthal & Jon Cohen on their internal data The New York Times on Trump’s polling CNN’s entrance polls Dave Weigel on Ann Selzer “silver standard”   Feminism What’s better-received “feminism” or “the women’s movement”? Interesting new deep-dive. Washinton post/Kaiser Full poll The Selfie Vote   Ask a Millennial! How many Millennials say they’re likely to leave their jobs in the next two years? Maybe not as many as you hope? Deloitte annual study of Millennials   Happy Birthday Super Bowl--And Us! This weekend is super bowl 50! And we celebrate The Pollsters 50! Most people are celebrating with a party, and perhaps a new outfit or television. NRF’s latest survey   Key Findings Iowa, it was nice knowing ya. And poll-skeptics, just try to make it to NH without getting another fix Ask a Millennial--to stay at their jobs? Happy birthday Super Bowl! And happy birthday to us!

Last show till Iowa! It’s like the night or two before Christmas. Are you excited?   Poll of the week: From the department of “correlation doesn’t mean causation” we bring you some good news for moderate drinkers. Gallup on drinking and depression   Iowa. Iowa. Iowa. Sanders has momentum in Iowa. Trump seems to be consolidating. What’s the role of endorsements? Or of ads? One thing pollsters agree: turnout matters dramatically. CNN’s Jenn Agiesta on turnout Huffington Post/Pollster Prediction markets The "America" ad FiveThirtyEight forecasts   Frank Newport: “Polling is my life!” Frank Newport from Gallup is sort of like our Podfather. And he should be yours too. The original Gallup podcast   C-e-Who? More than half of people can’t name a CEO. “Deeply disturbing.” Edelman Trust Barometer   Nielsen tracking 2nd screens Do you post on Facebook while watching TV? Nielsen wants to know about it. Recode story on Nielsen social media monitoring   12345-Monkey! World’s worst passwords! These are pretty pathetic people. Your password is the worst, 2015   Poor Selfie Sticks, Nobody Loves You We like “The Selfie Vote,” but maybe not selfie sticks. The best inventions The Selfie Vote   Key findings: Drink up! Voting is about to begin. The easy money is on betting this will be a crazy year. Will polls predict who wins the early contests, or polls plus endorsements, ads & conventional wisdom? We’ll find out soon! It’s kind of like 10pm the night before Christmas. Even though Facebook & Neilsen are tabulating your fb posts about Cookie Lyons, trust in corporations is up. Looking for a new password? May we recommend, ThePollsters?

Don’t forget your micro-assignment: Send us a polling 101 question for our explainer episode.   2016: On the Democratic side, the contest continues to roil. Straight Ace (Metrix). Huffington Post/IA Huffington Post/NH Huffington Post/national Democratic insiders in Politico. DMR/Selzer/Bloomberg poll   GOP side. Not sure the debate changed anything, polling-wise. Although maybe there’s Kasich-mentum? Huffington Post average: IA Huffington Post average: NH Huffington Post: national MassINC/WBUR Matt MacWilliams on authoritarianism NBC/WSJ on GOP contest Full NBC/WSJ poll   We talk to Carl Bialik You say bialy, we say burrito. And we talk about fivethirtyeight, forecasting, and polling pollsters. FiveThirtyEight poll of pollsters   UK update Tories aren’t shy, they’re busy! New reports on “what went wrong” in the UK election polling. BPC report The Guardian Huffington Post   Elephant in the valley A majority of women receive unwanted advances. Like a mixtape. Elephant in the Valley Poll your privilege (in Canada)   Ask a Millennial: Judge for yourself Is Judge Judy on SCOTUS? We Ask a Millennial. College grad study of civic engagement   Key Findings: Just like wildly fluctuating snow predictions, we have wildly fluctuating IA & NH predictions. Get your snacks ready & hunker down for the long winter. If we’re teaching our children good manners, does that mean they’re future Trump supporters? A new parenting thing to keep us all up at night. And if my children don’t become tech zillionaires, perhaps they should move to Canada instead. And who needs RBG when you have Judge Judy? And who does better in demo?  

Thanks for the great shoutouts all over the Internet. Next micro-assignment: tweet us or post on our FB page your polling 101 questions for an evergreen explainer episode we’re working on. We're @thepollsters both on Facebook & Twitter.   Poll of the week: Gig this! One fifth of Americans say they’re giggers in some way. Kristen & Margie have their own favorites. Time Magazine Gig poll   2016: It’s getting hot in Iowa! The Dem side in Iowa went from snoozeville to snowplow. What does that mean? You’ll have to listen. Huffington Post/Pollster tracking ARG poll of Dems Quinnipiac IA poll NBC/WSJ/Marist poll Monmouth Poll/NH Washington Post on electability Washington Post on electability (2) Bloomberg tests the waters Gallup on independents   Gun politics. How did we get here? We haven’t talked about guns on the show for a while, but there’s been no shortage of gun polling, or gun tragedies. Margie has a new piece at Huffington Post. “A partisan culture, not a gun culture”   We talk to Scott Keeter: Pew Survey Director. Optimist. Scott Keeter is a loyal listener! So we’re excited to talk to him about his new report on improving likely voter models. Can likely voter models be improved?   And just as we were reaching peak TV. We like TV. But do we want to say we like TV? Gallup has some tracking. Meanwhile, it’s never too early to talk about next year’s Golden Globes! Gallup tracking on way to spend an evening Next year's Golden Globes   Key findings: 2016 is still going strong! Margie’s conquering her resolutions, we have an exciting race on both D/R sides, new friends & listeners, and Pew has given us a lot of new data and analysis to make us optimistic about the industry. But partisan divisions still there--and that, as opposed to gun ownership, seems to be what’s driving views toward gun laws. At time of peak tv, people don’t want to say they want to watch TV. But they do want more Amy Schumer & Jennifer Lawrence.

Welcome back everyone! Hello Canadian fans! And everyone start looking for Kristen’s new column & web show at The Washington Examiner.   Poll of the week: An Extended Pollster Plan Pew will call 75% cells for 2016! This is big news. Pew announcement on cell phones   2016: Cruz draws Trump out of his shell. Democratic field unchanged. How is the Republican primary like Margie’s Christmas vacation? Has Trump hit a ceiling in New Hampshire? Field poll in CA NYT Upshot/Civis poll and analysis Huffington Post/pollsters trend charts   Anger Management Esquire, Survey Monkey & NBC partnered for this latest study about the angry electorate. Interesting concept. Did they get to the bottom of it? We discuss. Esquire Angry Electorate Gallup: Government #1 problem   A poll of pollsters Five Thirty Eight did a poll of pollsters, which makes us wonder, what criteria should we use to define the polling industry? Five Thirty Eight: Most pollsters say their reputation has worsened   You say you don’t want a resolution Most people are not making resolutions this year. But Kristen & Margie aren’t like most people. Marist poll on resolutions The life changing magic of tidying up   Key findings Less than a month & probably a zillion polls to go before voting begins in Iowa. As the rest of the GOP field scrambles, Trump continues to dominate. Especially with the crucial non-voting, Democratic-registered Republican bloc. Whether it’s racial tensions, guns, government dysfunction, income inequality, voters are angry about a lot of different things, but expect all candidates to try to harness that anger this year. If you’re cell phone is ringing & you’re not sure who is calling, pick up! It might be Pew Research. If you’re reluctant to make a New Year’s resolution, how about one to share some love for the pollsters on Twitter or Facebook, with an iTunes review, at earbud.fm, or in the coments at gofugyourself.

Thanks for all the great feedback, gang! Let's all take next week off, but if you’re desperate for more Pollsters, listen to our interview with Chuck Todd (#39).   Poll of the week! May the polls be with you: Just like there is constant Trump polling, there is constant Star Wars polling. That’s as close as Margie’s getting to a movie theater. Star Wars poll on Rotten Tomatoes   2016: With candidates like these, who needs family? Trump gets Trumpier and Trumpier, and the polls find both agreement and embarrassment. People agree with Trump--even on things that don’t exist/PPP CBS/YouGov IA/NH: Republicans “glad someone is saying” things Trump says Quinnipiac poll shows even ⅕ of GOP woudl be embarrassed if Trump was president Trump finally gets something right! And it’s about polling!   Kyle Dropp from Morning Consult What can we learn about Trump’s support across methodologies? We talk to Kyle Dropp from Morning Consult. Morning Consult's new report   Insecurity Insecurity about our security is on the rise. Although views toward police improve. For first time since 9/11, views on terrorism net negative, Pew Americans more worried by terrorism than shootings, Gallup Faith in police rebounds, Gallup   Celebrate the holidays like the Millennials Those Millennials--they know how to pare down a holiday to its bare essence. Monmouth on the holidays Millennial & other generations on Christmas, Pew   Key Findings: This holiday, no need to be embarrassed by your family when there are still so many candidates to be embarrassed by? it seems like voters are increasingly worried about security & terrorism, but will it drive voters in the primary or the general? Spoil Star Wars for Margie! But it’ll cost you. Be like a Millennial & have a great holiday with your family & friends.

We take a deep dive into the world of political handicapping with veteran writer and observer Charlie Cook. We talk about the role of polling in evaluating campaigns, how polling is not like art, and about the future of political journalism.  Cook Political Report National Journal

Thanks for all your hard work with your Micro-assignments! As a result we have been featured next to mega-hit Serial on the pocketcasts app. Hello, Serial-listeners! To celebrate almost being a legit media property Margie has a surprise, but you’ll have to listen to the show.   Poll of the week: Star Wars How does one prepare for a major nerd event? With polling, obviously. FiveThirtyEight & Survey Monkey poll on Star Wars   2016 It’s now no longer too early to get excited about the Presidential race. Even Millennials are excited. AP poll on likability Pew poll on excitement of race Monmouth poll national IA Selzer/DMR poll WBUR NH poll   Muslim ban No matter who emerges on top from Tuesday’s GOP debate, we know one thing for sure: Trump’s “Muslim Ban” will take center stage. Roundup of polling on Muslim immigration Frank Luntz FG   Ask a millennial! Part of our ongoing series: Ask a Millennial. We happen to have one: Kristen. The Selfie Vote The Founders? Harvard IOP Pew on Americans being lazy, selfish, or... Happy Holidays! Here’s a picture of a bear CareerBuilder finds many of you are getting some weird gifts for your co-workers. Margie has a not-weird gift for Kristen. We have a gift for you in the form of Charlie Cook. CareerBuilder survey of office gifts   Key findings Still not sure likeabilty matters in your 2016 vote, although we’re glad you like The Pollsters Your relatives will most likely be talking about Trump, Cruz & the muslim ban over the holidays. We asked a Millennial about whether Americans are lazy. And she said no, case closed. This holiday, don’t buy your coworker a sheep, or a roll of duct tape.  

Micro-assignment time! Like us on Facebook & share a link to the show on your own feeds. Super-easy! These micro-assignments have really helped us grow the show.   Kristen reports from Alaska Is Alaska a hard place to do research? Well, maybe a little easier than when Margie went there 20 years ago. NYT on whether Alaska is hard to poll FiveThirtyEight on Alaska polling   Trump & Muslims So Trump’s polling savvy once again is making news, this time as he cites polls for his own extremist policy. But what do the data actually say? Also, Margie enters the Blue Zone. CNN on Trump polling citation Washington Post on Trump polling citation Pew study of Muslims worldwide Sun poll of UK Muslims Quinnipiac national survey on guns   Meanwhile, Cruz Cruises Some hypothesize Trump’s statement comes on the heels of a Monmouth poll in IA showing Cruz on top. Monmouth IA poll Politico on Bush & polls CNN IA poll National CNN poll USNews on CNN poll   Campaign finance reform We talked about this with Sanders pollster Ben Tulchin last week: there is a diff between opposing money in campaigns & being a single-issue campaign finance reform voter. but new Pew data shows this is a particularly bipartisan issue: Pew & campaign finance reform   UK polling: what went wrong? We’d love to have Antony Wells back on, or talk to others who polled in the UK. But YouGov has come out with its report, and we suggest you take a look at what they found accounted for their error in predicting a strong Conservative win. YouGov report   Key findings: There are some things polls shouldn’t help us do, and that’s develop likely unconstitutional policies. But, if we’re going to look at polling among muslims, the results are not even close to being as clear-cut as Trump believes. Meanwhile--there are some things Margie says are in fact popular--preventing terrorists from getting guns & limiting campaign spending. All this means the GOP race is particularly roiling & volatile this week. That we can also tell from the polling.

Hi all! Great work with all your micro-assignments! Here they are again--they’re all super short: Write a quick review on iTunes or Stitcher. Tweet or share on Facebook the links to the show. You can also link to Soundcloud or Pocketcasts. Submit a recommendation for the show to NPR’s Earbud.FM.   Big number of the week: 41% of Americans trying to lose weight, a new low. Gallup says, good job America!   Creepy poll of the week, from Echelon Insights No, I haven’t thought about these candidates, what are you talking about? Aside from Trump, that is.   The GOP field Trump still leads, or does he? It may depend on who you talk to and how they’ve been called. FiveThirtyEight on Trump online vs. live calls Reuters Huffington Post Quinnpiac   Ben Tulchin feeling the Bern We talk to Sanders campaign pollster Ben Tulchin of Tulchin Research. He walks us through the public polling on the Democratic side, and why the media has got it wrong. Tulchin memo Time Magazine   This Week in Ask a Millennial We ask our resident Millennial (Kristen) about Millennials and smartphones. And tablets. And laptops. Pew on device ownership The Selfie Vote   Big game hunting poll Marist poll finds clear majorities oppose big game hunting. Maybe a new bipartisan issue? Marist on Big Game hunting   Key Findings: Whether you’re feeling the post-Thanksgiving exercise & diet burn, or the Sanders bern, there are  numbers to help you find your tribe. Seems like dieting is down. Sanders, maybe up? Although we’re feeling the bern by both Trump & Justin Bieber. Sigh. Our twitter skills need more work i guess. Millennials are maybe not as connected as we had all thought? But that shouldn’t stop you guys from writing reviews, tweeting out a recommendation for the show, or submitting our show to earbud.fm. And, maybe we found another issue that might have cross-demo appeal: banning big game hunting. Candidates take note.

Hi all! Great work with all your micro-assignments! The theme this week is Twitter, so micro-assignment #3 is to tweet out a recommendation to the show with a link. The link is important! You can use this iTunes link, Soundcloud, Stitcher, Pocketcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. You can also RT links from our Twitter feed.   Security  Whether it’s ISIS, the refugee crisis, or racial tensions here at home, the polling shows Americans are worried. WP/ABC poll Bloomberg/Selzer Fox News poll The Sun (UK) poll of Muslims The Sun poll methodology CNN/KFF poll on race   Let’s talk Twitter with Adam Sharp Twitter polls, Twitter sentiment, and our own true Twitter confessions. We talk to Adam Sharp, head of Campaigns, Elections, News & Government at Twitter. @AdamS @gov   2016 Update Carson’s had a tough week, which seems to help Cruz. What can stop Trump? Seemingly nothing. And what’s going on on the Democratic side? Huffington Post/pollster CBS/YouGov   Pass the Government Roles please People may want smaller government, but even Republicans see a government role for education and the environment. Pew poll   Millennials like censorship and Snapchat  Millennials are more likely to support censoring than any other group. And can they be reached on Snapchat? We talk to our resident Millennial expert: Kristen. Pew study on Millennials Washington Post on Snapchat poll Politico on Snapchat poll The Selfie Vote   Let’s talk about Adele, and, uh, Justin Bieber Are you alone in your love for Adele? (No.) What about Kristen’s love of Justin Bieber? (Yes.) PPP on musicians   We give thanks to polling Do the guys at 538 even listen to this show? Let’s find out! And we weigh in on green bean casserole and shopping. 538 on side dishes Arthur Brooks/NYT on giving thanks PPP on Thanksgiving   Key Findings Whether it’s about refugee crisis, race, role of government, or turkey, please take this week to say something nice about someone of the other party--even (especially!?) if that person is in your family. And, while you’re at it, say something nice about us. On Twitter.