The Pollsters

Dialing in from the road: Kristen on her hometown Orlando. Margie on her pet issues of LGBT rights and stronger gun laws. Can this year get any crazier? Polling suggests maybe not.   Orlando’s implications on gun laws, threat of terrorism, and LGBT safe spaces We try to make sense of the gun polling--views on terrorism, on an assault weapon ban, and more. Margie’s picks on how to take action on Orlando Bloomberg Politics National Poll CBS News poll YouGov poll post San Bernardino YouGov poll just before Orlando Pew Research poll on religion and support of LGBT rights Quinnipiac poll on gun laws Pew on guns Gallup on terrorism Gallup on terrorism & guns   A bad week for Trump Trump’s had a terrible time in the news this past week. And voters seem to be moving away from him. Real Clear Politics average NBC News poll Yougov/Huffington Post poll with open ends on the candidates Trump thinks he discovered polling Confidence gap What’s this newspaper thing of which you speak? Gallup poll shows low confidence in newspapers Harvard Study of media coverage of the 2016 election   From the department of sports Hockey fans are different than basketball fans. And Philly Phanatic fans are different from everyone. YouGov poll on NHL vs NBA fans Public Policy Polling on the Phanatic   Key findings: Take some time this week to not only think about the tragedy in Orlando, but about gun violence prevention--all of it. What are you doing this week to reduce gun deaths? At the pollsters, we’ve always known the polls were a big deal, and we value the press--but perhaps we’re alone? Whether you’re a Phillie Phanatic fanatic or an extroverted hockey fan, you probably think this election is crazy--and that’s putting it nicely.

Courtney Kennedy is the new director of Survey Research at Pew Research Center. When other pollsters and partisans looked at the 2000 exit poll craziness with shock and excitement/despair, Courtney thought "that's so cool!" We talk to her about some of the great experiments Pew is cooking up. Follow Pew here. 

Hi all! We have some great interviews--this week with Doug Schwartz from Quinnipiac. And next week we'll have Courtney Kennedy from Pew.   Poll of the  week: Breaking! People are not freaking out enough about Zika Are you freaking out about Zika? Well, why not? Harvard study on Zika   Gurl. We got a candidate. If you think Democrats are not unified, well, just look at the data. YouGov/CA poll   The General, AKA: Yikes Gallup has tons of great breakdowns this week of how different parties view the top issues, how Trump and Clinton voters view their own candidates, and how the two square off on everything. The bottom line: neither party is safe. Gallup on candidate traits Gallup on candidate issues Gallup on the top issues Quinnipiac on candidate promises   Who’s to judge? Apparently, Trump may not be that far off public opinion as we might’ve hoped. Why is this the final “off-ramp” for Republicans? Haven’t there been lots of other off-ramps? YouGov on judge ethnicity   Meanwhile, a real race is happening here! More people voted for their favorite Pokemon than in some states’ caucuses. Margie’s going to need Kristen to decipher this. The Pokemon election   Key Findings: Gurrrl. That’s it, that’s all I got. We have a nominee, and Margie’s thrilled that it’s a woman. Meanwhile, don’t get complacent. Team Dumpster FIre has some advantages, and that is worrying. And which is more dangerous--the Zika virus, or Donald Trump? We didn’t know that Pokemon was still a thing, but it seems like Pikachu needs a branding campaign. Call us!

Doug Schwartz from Quinnipiac comes to The Pollsters' soundbooth to talk about polling methodology, students-as-interviewers, and what's next for their 2016 research. Find him on twitter here or here. 

Sorry we didn’t do an interview show this past week. Even pollsters have to take a holiday sometimes. In the meantime, you can catch us on WAMU’s The Big Listen. It’s funny!   Poll of the week: Elect This MTV talks to Millennials, and they just want this election to be over already. We feel ya! Also, they just skip right over podcasts & head to a polling topline YouTube video. MTV "Elect This" release "Infographica" video   2016: Californication and beyond. California is next up on the primary stage. Exciting! Or, maybe not? Meanwhile, other outlets dig deep into the Clinton private email server, the importance of “narrative” and the Rust Belt states. Huffington Post/pollster CA tracker Morning Consult on Clinton email/speeches John Sides/Washington Post/Monkey Cage on early ads Kristen/Echelon Insights/College Republican poll and CNN Bloomberg Politics/Purple Strategies/Rust Belt voters Monmouth University on Gary Johnson   Moral values in decline   Are moral values in decline? Voters say yes, but what kinds of values are they talking about? And can you find something morally unacceptable but do it anyway? Gallup on moral values in decline Gallup on moral values by religion Gallup on top priority for next President   Five stars for all you happy travelers Margie is going to turn over a new leaf and write nicer reviews. Kind of like Russians. GetYourGuide shows world's happiest travelers The Atlantic on smiling   Kristen has the need for speed Meanwhile, Kristen takes in auto racing, with predictable results. The Harris Poll on America's favorite sports   Key findings Millennials are more engaged this election cycle I guess that's some political lemonade. It's dig into the data week! Although it all still points to trump being damaged but strong. What kind of moral values do you have if you're not prioritizing things like cloning, abortion or gay marriage? The kind shared by 98% of the electorate. Kristen is checking out new sports and I'm going to think about writing only kind reviews. But we'll do it all with smiles.

We’re back in the soundbooth--no noisy hotel hallways this time! And check us out this weekend on The Big Listen--a podcast (and actual WAMU broadcast) about podcasts. We really enjoyed talking to Lauren. As always, don’t forget to follow us on Facebook and Twitter.   Poll of the week: get the government out of our bathrooms Voters in this recent NBC/WSJ poll show many don’t want any type of government in their bathrooms--state law or federal intervention. And very high don’t knows on how people feel about transgender use of bathrooms.   Should you panic? Uh, no? Last week when we discussed the effect Sanders might be having on Clinton’s general election performance, we didn’t have a lot of data. But there have been a few more polls this week suggesting Democrats may in fact be slightly more unified than they were this time in 2008. The new CBS/NYT poll shows far more Republicans are divided than Dems, and far more feel Clinton can unite party than Republicans say the same about Trump. And more Sanders voters say they’d vote for Clinton than Clinton voters said they’d vote for Obama same time in 2008.Greg Sargent from the Washington Post has a good writeup on this as well. Gallup also shows both Clinton and Sanders voters don’t think Sanders hurting their party.   Perhaps the dialogue among Democratic insiders is different from that around Democratic voters. This wouldn’t be unlike how Republican insiders have felt much more strongly about Trump than have Republican voters, even if, as Gallup shows, Republicans are favorable, but still not totally pleased with their nominee.   Meanwhile, everyone hates everyone The latest wave of polls suggests there are lots of “nose-holders” and Trump and Clinton are tied. Can this be real? Can we trust the polls this far out? Many pollsters and poll-watchers have weighed in. The latest NBC/WSJ poll says Clinton and Trump are currently the least popular front-runners in the poll’s history. The ABC/WSJ poll said the same.   There are also some new subgroup polls in the mix, such as this recent breakout of Latinos, and this new poll of the AAPI community.   To sort through the onslaught of data, Norm Ornstein & Alan Abramowitz write  in NYT to “stop the insanity” Susan Powter-style, and Jon Cohen and Mark Blumenthal of Survey Monkey respond. Mark and Jon raise an important point--we need to be focusing on *why* Trump is doing well, and less on whether he is tied, or up a few, or down a few, as in this recent Vox dialogue with pollsters.   Ask a millennial! Millennials want marriage & kids, but maybe not at the same time? As our resident Millennial, Kristen (author of “The Selfie Vote”) is not surprised. But the number of Millennials living with their parents--well, that’s pretty high. And don’t get us started on Europe. This year’s summer song. Billboard has a poll of the top song of summer. We don’t know if the answers will surprise you, but they surprise Margie, who clearly needs to get out more. And if you want to be part of Kristen’s musical tastes forever, you have a few more months.     Key findings: People want the government out of their bathrooms. Seems reasonable enough. Meanwhile--the 2016 race is the opposite of reasonable. But the polling is kind of consistent--so why is that what everyone is freaking out about? I’m going to freak out if my children are living with me when they’re 35. How did Justin Bieber come up again in this podcast? We can’t even blame Kristen--we blame the polls.

Kristen interview David Rothschild from AAPOR. We know you'll share David's enthusiasm for talking about the industry, predictive markets, non-probability sampling, and the "innovator's dilemma." Find more about David here.

What the heck is AAPOR? Well, just a whole lot of awesome! Kristen gives us a report. And we report from a hotel hallway, so apologies for the sounds of conference-goers in the background.   Poll of  the week: What’s in a name? Washington Post updates an older poll of Native Americans about the name of the local football team. There’s a difference between finding a term offensive and being bothered about a team’s use of it. Regardless, it seems like good news for Dan Snyder. And the methodology is just as interesting.   2016: We’ve got questions!  Polls have answers (maybe) Okay, Trump may be the nominee, but can he really win? Is he bringing new Republicans to the polls?  Or is he going to hurt the Republican party downballot (& Ryan)? Is Sanders hurting Clinton? Who should Clinton pick as her VP?  What about a third party? What do other pollsters & poll-watchers say? “You’re going to die”    The national race between Clinton and Trump is narrowing, per Huffington Post. Dems want Sanders as HRC’s VP, says Rasmussen Is sanders hurting clinton? Margie gives a shrug emoji, and not sure what to make of Huffington Post fav ratings Steve Shepard on pollsters trying to figure out trump, with smart thoughts from Kristen & Mark Blumenthal. Breaking! Trump has a pollster! An actual pollster! Who some say woudl be able to say “you’re going to die.” Well, that seems like a good skill for 2015! Is Trump expanding the party? (spoiler: no.) Chris Cilizza on “truly independent” poll: “truly terrible.” Meanwhile, is Trump hurting Paul Ryan’s  numbers?  PPP asks.   Pew on the sharing economy Some Americans have done none of these, according to Pew. Margie has done a chunk of them in the last 24 hours. Pew on the sharing economy   Graduation gifts: Congrad-uations! Get it? You’re going to get lots of cash, survey says. NRF on graduation spending. Key findings There’s a diff between offensive and bothersome. But I’d love to hear more research about Native Americans think beyond just the team name. Trump’s got a pollster! And it’s not himself! Expect  those poll-tested tweets any day now. We truly appreciate people like Chris Cilizza weighing in on poll questions. Truly. Are you a regular part of the sharing economy? That would make you not quite like most Americans? Congrats to our grad listeners! Expect cash! Not from us--from us you can get an RT--but cash from everyone else.

We talk to Molly Murphy from Anzalone Liszt Grove about polling on issues and being a young woman in the business. Learn more about her here. 

Go find Kristen at AAPOR! And Margie’s Austin tips include the 2nd street warehouse district and South Congress.   Poll of the week Trump is less popular than lice, Nickelback. PPP, you gave us the poll America needed, but didn’t know it wanted. PPP on Trump   2016: Controlled Burn Are Sanders voters going to vote for Trump? And is the general really getting closer already? WV exit polls (Dem side) Quinnipiac battleground poll Survey Monkey/NBC Nate  silver goes on tweet rant   Longform is hot! People spend more time with longform on their cells than shorter content. Facebook sends more visitors, while Twitter users are more engaged. Pew on media consumption Pew on FB vs. Twitter   Socialism is not! Is socialism having its moment? Well, not according to Gallup. Gallup data on socialism and capitalism over time   Education: Students don’t  think there is too much testing? Unlike everyone else. Gallup poll   Swipe left if you want to go on a date to Arby’s. Kristen & Margie are launching a side-hustle of helping with your online profiles. Not really. YouGov on dating app profiles   Key findings: If “Make america great again” doesn’t work out, Trump can transition to “Trump: more popular than hemorrhoids” But how popular is trump compared to school testing? Question for further study. Longform is back in! Sort of like other retro habits like canning tomatoes. Or pencils. Is it too early to talk about how too early it is look at general election polling? Not for us! Good thing Margie's not single, because there doesn’t seem to be any dating app for people for Dem women who like white wine & oysters on the half shell.

After sharing a panel at the Milken Global Conference, Margie corners Michael Dimock, the President of Pew Research Center. They talk about Pew's mission, their latest study comparing online panels, and how he got his start. Check him out on twitter here. 

Folks! Margie has a new gig & we have new mugs. We’re almost totally a real show now.   Poll of the Week! Are you Cinco-de-Mayo-ing properly? Do you understand the meaning of Cinco de Mayo? Aside from guacamole & margaritas? Univision poll   Indiana results: well, that was interesting. Meet your new nominee, folks. Fun, huh? CNN exit polls Survey monkey/NBC NYT/upshot analysis   Who knows? Pew knows! Does your online panel stink? Maybe! Who knows! Well, Pew knows, but isn’t telling you.   Common sense media Teens & their smartphones. Yikes! I’m already worried. And i’m the problem! Common Sense Media survey   Mother’s day Moms want: a little R&R, and income inequality. PSB/Shriver poll on moms Stacy’s snacks survey

Top pollsters Celinda & Ed started their partnership at a piano bar. Really! We talk to them about the latest Battleground Poll, plus their views on the industry. Read more about the poll here. 

Would Kristen & Margie swap shoes during a panel? Um, no. Please? Um, still no.   Stop playing the Acela Primary card! Sanders is hurting Clinton as evidenced by her winning so much? And Trump is playing the crazy man card.   Huffington Post trends Exit polls Gallup on gender & paying attention   Ask a Millennial! R’s who haven’t read the selfie vote, call your office. Kristen had a dream that Republicans did nothing to appeal to young voters, and so they slowly became more Democratic. Oh wait. Harvard IOP poll The Selfie Vote   Surprise! You’re an independent. Are you an independent, or an “American Independent”? What’s the difference, well... LA Times./Tulchin/Smith Johnson Research poll   Pop Icon vs. Politician. Whether it’s Prince or Beyonce, pols vs. pop is a losing battle. Record labeling Buzzfeed Prince quiz Bloomberg Politics/Selzer poll in Iowa   Key findings: Anyone want to challenge a majority of the electorate & see how turns out in the polls? Deal us in! Meanwhile, it looks like capitalism & wall street may be sleepy issues this election cycle--on both sides of the aisle. Independent--I don’t think that word means what you think it means. Californians, check the fine print! It was Earth Day & all I got was more partisan division. Purple Rain is the Purple One’s top song, polls show. And whether prince or beyonce, pols And speaking of Purple, thanks for three great years @ Purple Strategies (and thanks for the cozy soundbooth Cold Harbor Films)! I’ll have an announcement soon about what’s next.

Patrick (Kristen's business partner) has a new podcast about the delegate hunt. We talk to him pre-NY about all the fun we're going to have this summer. / Patrick (Kristen's business partner) has a new podcast about the delegate hunt. We talk to him pre-NY about all the fun we're going go have. Listen to his new show "Floor fight" & follow him on twitter here.