The Pollsters

Hard to forget a crying baby--whether you’re in a Maine diner, on a podcast, or if he’s standing next to you on the debate stage.   When polling is the story: The GOP debate This week the GOP debate makes big news, especially the polling leading up to the debate. WSJ: WSJ/NBC poll Fox News article Fox News Poll Bloomberg: Trump Dominates in pre-debate poll CBS Poll   And the Dems? While not as big news as the GOP pre-debate polling, new polls confirm the primary narrows somewhat.   WSJ: Clinton loses ground with white women WMUR: Granite State Poll   Top pollster takes Boy Scout oath We talk to Lee Miringoff from Marist about their decision to not be part of the pre-debate polling. Politico: Marist suspends polling McClatchy: Marist suspends polling to avoid being part of debate Miringoff: 10 reasons polls should not determine debate eligibility   Key Findings: Polling is as much the story this week as the debate. But when pollsters find that troubling, then I think that’s a problem. Even with all the polling, some story lines--like Trump’s bump, or Sanders vs. Clinton--end up being rorschach tests anyway. If the polls are driving campaign news this far out, we have a long campaign ahead of us. Make sure you have subscribed! Lastly, Maura Duggan has been the best intern ever! Thanks Maura!

Kristen is on the road and Margie’s still in the closet but we head right into the eye of the Trummania storm.   Four questions about Trump polling:   is this bump real? (Do the polls reflect real trends?) What’s driving it? Will it last? Is this just a “fling”? What will this do to the GOP brand?   Politico: What Trump Bump? NBC/Marist Polls: Iowa NBC/Marist Poll: New Hampshire Bloomberg/Purple: Trump focus group Monmouth Poll: Immigration Nate Silver: Trump Nickelback CNN/ORC poll Gallup: GOP Familiarity/Favorability Huffington Post: Grassroots Activist Republicans Pew: GOP favorability   Cuba moves As the candidates make moves on Cuba, Pew has new data on opinions on the changing relationship between the two countries.   Pew Polling Report: Cuba CBS Poll: Cuba   Pot, Alcohol, Coffee, Salt, Fat & Gluten. Not in that order. What’s in, and what’s out...of our bodies.   Gallup: Marijuana usage Gallup: Drinking Gallup: Drinking highest among educated, upper-income Gallup: Coffee Consumption Gallup: Fat and Salt Gallup: Gluten-free habits NYT: Americans eating less Gallup: Americans exercising more   Book Banning Plans on curling up with a good book this summer? Better act fast because some folks support ratings systems and even bans. Harris Poll: Censorship   Summertime Overtime Or maybe just email the office on your vacation. That’s what we do! Roper Center: Vacation Time

This week we’re back in the soundbooth, with special guest Baby Beckett! Also, don’t forget to buy Kristen’s book, The Selfie Vote.   What to Trump & Sanders have in common? Most polling continues to show Trump in the lead, or close to it. Even in the aftermath of his McCain comments. On the Democratic side, one poll show Sanders and Clinton doing equally well in the general. Yet neither Trump nor Sanders believe in polling, it seems. We discuss.   Monmouth: 2016 Iowa poll WaPo: Trump leads GOP field Gallup: Trump Core Issue Ratings Quinnipiac: Sanders head-to-head with Clinton Huffington Post: Sanders $0 for polling Trump Pollsters Tweet Latino Decisions: Threshold to win in 2016   Campaign finance Speaking of campaign spending, a new poll shows voters divided on the impact campaign finance rules are having on our presidential contest. But how closely are voters studying either?   Monmouth: Campaign finance   Conflicting, simultaneous views on Iran With the deal back in the news, there is new polling, showing voters simultaneously supportive but cautious.   YouGov: Americans on Iran Deal AP/GFK: Iran relations Fox News: Iran Deal   Tweeting all moms! Ah, parenthood, All the joys, all the Facebook posts…   Pew: Parents and social media   Key Findings: If it’s Trump vs. Sanders, everyone’s going to move to public polling. Speaking of a fun field, voters in both parties say campaign finance rules are not helping. Voters say they’re following the Iran deal, and are both supportive and cautious. Hey parents out there! Tweet Margie with your advice on having the best maternity break ever!      

In the last two weeks, Kristen had a book & Margie had a baby. But now we’re back with the latest in polling news!   Bet you can’t Trump this! The polls are pretty clear--Trump is #1. But that doesn’t mean people are taking him seriously. Or does it? YouGov: Donald Trump/GOP race Gallup: Trump not seen as serious candidate Suffolk/USA Today: Trump on top Washington Post: Trump word cloud ABC/WaPo Poll: Trump’s favorability   The science on science “Science” is not just one issue, but a whole litany of topics. Some have demographic drivers, and some don’t. Pew breaks it down. Pew: Politics and science   I’ll pay you $5 tomorrow for a survey today Do you need to reimburse cell phone respondents for their time? Pew ran some experiments. But whatever you do, don’t borrow young women’s cell phones--they need them! Pew: Cell phone respondent reimbursement Gallup: Smartphones Gallup: Life Without Smartphones   Grateful for polling The biggest Deadheads are Republicans. What would Jerry say? PR Newswire: Grateful Dead poll   Hey baby, what’s your sign? Is astrology stll a good pickupline? And more importantly, does it predict the future? YouGov: Horoscopes   Abs are the cure for sexism Half of America thinks Hollywood is sexist YouGov: Hollywood Sexism TIME: Magic Mike vs. Magic Mike XXL   Key Findings: The verdict is in--Trump is #1. Even though no one seems to want him there. Views toward science need more science to explain. You can keep sending respondents $5 reimbursements. Or not! Kasich is a former deadhead--maybe he’s onto a trend the rest of us don’t know about. Ladies love astrology, their smartphones, & Magic Mike.