The Pollsters

So glad you guys liked our interview with Ron Brownstein--we did too! Also, we have 96 reviews, can we get to a nice round 100? You can write a review on iTunes or Stitcher, and follow us on Twitter and Facebook to see all the polls we're looking at each week.   Poll of the week: DC Insiders, they’re just like us! Hey, how come we didn’t get called? Examiner-Echelon Insider poll   2016 The landslide got you down? Well, must be those trash-can polls. Huffington Post/Pollster 2-way Huffington Post/Pollster 3-way NYT/Upshot on 2016 WashPost on Trump's chance NYT/Upshot what a Clinton landslide would look like WashPost on Gallup study Gallup study on what predicts Trump support NBC/Marist battleground state polls FiveThirtyEight senate polls USA Today/RTV on Millennials   Next up: debates The debates are coming, and voters already have some preferences. Pew on debate topics Fix The Debates & IQUS   Get ready to go back to work everyone: Jobs Are you on vacation, or wrapping up a summer job? Margie & Kristen had some formative jobs that we relive in real-time. Gallup on women and jobs FiveThirtyEight and summer jobs Most popular industries   Key Findings: This is election is so crazy, it’s even making Kristen angry. That’s tough y’all! Where does pollster rate on top industries? What about twitter troll? What about podcast guest-host? And don’t let the landslide get you down. Not with so many podcasts to catch up on.  

Listen & take notes, folks, in our latest interview-only show. Ron Brownstein (The Atlantic/CNN) shows us what it's like to talk polling. And he hadn't even had his morning coffee yet! Ron Brownstein on Twitter. Brownstein's stories at The Atlantic. As always, don't forget to write a review of the show on iTunes or Stitcher, and follow us on Twitter and Facebook to see all the polls we're looking at each week.

Welcome new listeners! Only polling can answer the tough questions, like “What are you smoking?” Don't forget to write a review of the show on iTunes or Stitcher, and follow us on Twitter and Facebook to see all the polls we're looking at each week.   Poll of the week: A low-grade Olympic fever? Are you watching the Olympics? If you’re not, maybe you’re not alone. Gallup on Olympic viewing   2016: Make no mistake about it: Clinton is up in the polls. It’s not a skew, it’s not a bias. It’s really happening (at least right now). Huffington Post average: 2-way Huffington Post average: 3-wayPew on Split Districts NBC/Marist battleground states RCP on Georgia FiveThirtyEight: are the polls skewed? Walmart Moms are back!   Preaching to the choir: Voters are hearing politics from the pulpit, but not about specific candidates. Pew on politics from the pulpit   Lighten up! People are smoking fewer cigarettes, more pot, and more beer than ever. Gallup on cigarettes Gallup on marijuana Beer is fave adult beverage.   Key findings: Hat tip to Ariel Levy from the Huffington Post, for coming up with some Olympic polling events: tracking & fielding; horseracing; synchronized dialing. How can Olympic fever be down with events like these?! Everyone is feeling disgusted with politics--it’s on Facebook, it’s at church, it’s on your phone right now. But that doesn’t mean the polls are skewed. Which pollster would you most want to share a beer (or glass of wine) with? We hope that’s us!  

We talk to Anna Greenberg from GQRR about the one polling question she's never asked, how Democratic and Republican pollsters differ, the value of a graduate degree, and challenges facing women in the industry.   Anna Greenberg on Twitter. GQRR's website.

We’ve recovered from the convention, but have the polls? Take it away, Kristen’s iPhone...   Poll of the week: Is 2016 making you wish you had a brain implant?. Do brain chip implants make you worried? What if they don’t actually work? Pew: Americans wary of biomedical enhancements for the human body   2016: A Clinton bounce, a Trump crater, and smod it all to heck. Clinton has a post-Philly bounce. But who knows what’s even happening anymore. Ah, 2016, Huffington Post analysis of post-convention bounce Huffington Post trackers Kristen's article in the examiner Margie’s latest dial-test poll from PSB Research Pew on few with cross-party friends From the Washington Post/Monkey Cage PPP on SMOD PPP on Harambe   Mansplain this to us. Men are experts on being experts. Maybe the answer is--affirmative action? Wash Post: Men cite themselves more than women do Gallup on gender and affirmative action   ISO: Someone who likes Dr. Pepper, crying, guns, and avocado Can your OK Cupid profile predict your party leanings? Well, do you like Broad CIty or Clint Eastwood? OK Cupid on politics   Key findings: We're old enough to remember when just the polling seemed crazy. Men are experts, just ask them! There aren’t many places where Democrats and Republicans can hang out. It’s not in person. It’s not OK Cupid. It’s just The Pollsters.

Whit Ayres is the head of North Star Opinion Research and was Marco Rubio's pollster.  We talk to him about the GOP convention, what he got wrong on Trump, and the future of the Republican Party.   Whit Ayres on Twitter North Star

Kristen is in Cleveland! Calling in from radio row. Margie is in the soundbooth, eager to hear the gossip.    Poll of the week: Elvis is in the building. There comes a time in every person's life when you must decide between an office dog and virtual reality glasses.  PSB/Dell Poll   2016: Well, this is going well.  Cleveland is like Glastonbury. Except in all the ways it's not. Gallup:Pence's Effect on Trump Victory in November CBS Poll finds most voters are unfamiliar with Pence Real Clear Politics: How favorable is Pence? Aggregators’ predictions FiveThirtyEight election forecast NY Times: Clinton has 76% chance of winning   Race to the bottom? Margie is turned off by some of the RNC rhetoric. What does Kristen think? Monmouth poll: Black Lives Matter has worsened racial tensions 74% think race relations are bad in US Voters favor Clinton on issues of race relations Americans are less optimistic about blacks’ opportunities Non-Hispanic whites are only group to favor Trump’s immigration policies  

Veteran Dem pollster Geoff Garin comes into the soundbooth to talk about Priorities USA, ad testing, and Donald Trump. Geoff Garin on Twitter. Hart Research. 

GOP pollster Christine Matthews laments the state of the Republican Party. "All that research" on how to talk to women. Ignored. Christine Matthews on twitter.

While Kristen is tied up with convention coverage, Jon Cohen from Survey Monkey joins us to talk about bringing Silicon Valley computing power to solve polling problems.  Find Jon on Twitter. Survey Monkey.

The folks at the Intelligence Squared US podcast want to fix the debates. We talk to Clea Chang about it.  Fix the debates petition IQUS podcast

The polls are like Pokemon: gotta read them all! Thanks for the great reviews guys, especially to the person who mentioned Joey Lucas.    Pokemon! A new reason to keep your phones handy at all times. YouGov Poll Pew Poll on Gamers   2016: Trumpers going to Trump It doesn’t matter what kind of press he gets, Trump still stays close in the polls. Huffington Post 2016 General Election Tracker Washington Post/ABC poll on FBI not charging Clinton Sanders supporters are more likely to back Clinton without third-party candidates Bloomberg/Purple poll on college education and voting tendencies   Quinnipiac swing state poll   Who gets the “warm bucket of spit” job? Does it matter? Margie’s team did this awesome new simulator. PSB VP Simulator   More polling on race, violence, and the police Tragic violence last week. Morning Consult poll comparing police brutality to violence against police Rasmussen - does media encourage attacks on police? Matt K Lewis on cameraphones and violence   Cry me a river! John Boehner is a Gender Avenger? YouGov on crying   Key findings: Pokemon is a thing! Don’t say we didn’t warn you. Trump! Don’t say we didn’t warn you! Newt Gingrich! Well, consider yourself warned. Shooting by police, and shooting of police--this is the kind of forced-choice question we’re not sure is so helpful. If you want to take a Holly Hunter cry break. Well, America can agree that this is okay.  

To the angry reviewer who complained we do too much advertising and propaganda--this show’s for you! We promote our own stuff, and lament the sad Trumpian state of affairs. Hope you like it.   Poll of the Week: The On-Demand Economy It is more than just a ride to the airport or your lunch delivered. PSB/Burson/Time article on the future of work Full research deck   Is there a time machine that can take us to a non-Trump universe? What happens when we change up the competition? HuffPost general election tracker SurveyMonkey: Clinton vs. Not Trump Reuters poll on racial attitudes of candidates’ supporters Kristen contemplates a future for the GOP The Atlantic: most American Christians think they’re victims of discrimination Full PRRI/Brookings report WP/Monkey Cage on authoritarianism Politico Magazine on authoritarianism   Lee Greenwood, call your office We hope you’re one of 52% that does this 4th. Gallup poll finds a 16-year low in American patriotism   What do Congressional staffers think about their job security after november? There could be major changes in both the Senate and the House. CQ Roll Call: Democratic staffers are increasingly confident   Wine & Sushi forever We trust the experts. NYT poll: do nutritionists and the public agree?   Key findings: You may think of the on-demand economy is just about being about a taxi to the airport or a sweetgreen salad to your office, but employers are thinking about this trend more carefully. Trump voters--just like Trump--are not your typical Republicans, particularly when it comes to views on race. If we don’t talk about it openly now, we won’t be ready for the post-Trump-ocalypse Elections have consequences, according to DC insiders. That doesn’t mean scoring White House tour tickets, but maybe a change in both the Senate and the House? Hope you celebrated the fourth by being proud to be Americans. And if not, hopefully you ate some wine, sushi, tofu, or hummus, in true, multi-culti American fashion.

We're traveling this week, but that doesn't mean we haven't gotten your messages or read your reviews! Thanks for the nice words everyone!   Poll of the week: Not to say I told you so, but… Remember when we said Democrats would coalesce around Clinton? Of course you do. Washington Post on Donald Trump’s ever worsening month   Trump’s Dumpster Fire = a Trumpster Fire The polls are mostly bad news for Trump this week. Whose to blame, if not the pollsters? Washington Post candidate approval polls Gallup on Trump’s support among Republicans Ballotpedia swing state polls Quinnipiac swing state polls Trump blames the pollsters Then Gingrich lashes out at pollsters in Trump’s defense Other countries have more faith in Putin than in Trump Gary Johnson blames pollsters -- how is he doing?   Brexit...was it a polling bust? Online polls were right, and telephone polls were very wrong. What is next for the UK when 3 million want to leave? Nate Cohn of the New York Times John Cohen of Survey Monkey Online polls were right about Brexit More than 1 million want to change their vote Gallup American economic reaction to Brexit Opposition for second referendum   Do we talk too much about race, or not enough? Is our concentration on race affecting political decisions…? Pew on race in the US Voters’ racial attitudes   The Princess Diaries - what the polls say about how much people see Princess Stuff. Playing with princesses may cause girls to avoid important learning experiences that aren’t perceived as feminine or believe their opportunities in life are different as women. Disney princess culture magnifies gender stereotyping Disney princesses change American kids   Key Findings Good news for nevertrumpers, but bad news for bernieorbusters. Lots of people want to take on The Pollsters, to which we say, bring it! Measuring bias is always tricky, but there are some sobering differences across party and candidate lines. Maybe Trump needs to play with more princess toys. That way he’ll think his leadership options are limited.

Last week Margie was on vacation, mucking up the audio & having a hard time relaxing. But we’re back in the soundbooth with some tributes to dads, Brexit, and jingles.   Poll of the week: Father’s Day In honor of Father’s Day in the rear-view mirror, some polls of interest to parents everywhere. If you’re a grumpy US parent, you’re not alone. Quartz on US parental happiness gap Ace Metrix on best Father's Day ad   2016: Trump’s had a bad few weeks. But does it matter? Clinton has the edge in the polls. But it’s not so dramatic. That’s even with the completely bonkers spending disparity. Huffington Post/pollster H2H average Huffington Post/pollster DJT favs Quinnipiac swing state polls Huffington Post/pollster HRC favs Steve Shepard/Politico on candidate favs New polls on guns As we predicted last week, there is lots of new polling out on guns. But can the polls answer why the policies and public opinion don’t seem in sync? YouGov pre/post Orlando polls CNN on guns NBC/Survey Monkey on guns Gallup on guns Update Brexit Trackers Brexit is a nail biter! Can pollsters declare victory no matter what happens? Telegraph on poll modes Telegraph on polling worries Huffington Post/pollster Brexit tracker Economist Brexit tracker Bloomberg Brexit tracker YouGov Brexit by age Pew on Brexit   You’re stuck on The Pollsters... Bring back jingles! Well, maybe not all of these jingles. YouGov on most popular jingles   Key Findings Have you hugged a parent today? You should! And if you think parenthood is unpopular, you should see Donald Trump. Gun polling vs gun policies continue to flummox Margie. Our predictions: polling is so tight in the UK, many pollsters can declare victory. (Also, Breakfast Beer is about as fun to say as Brexit.) Try this at home: give your friend an earworm by singing 10 different jingles.