UBS On-Air

The saga of the video app TikTok has dragged on longer than one of its memes; Oracle has agreed to become the US technical partner. From a macroeconomic perspective, what matters is whether the US and Chinese governments agree. If they do, it will signal tensions as normal (at least until the US presidential election).

It's Friday, so that means it is time for the week in review and preview. Today, we discuss the volatility from earlier in the week, CIO's outlook for equities, economic developments and much more. Today's guest: Matt Tormey, Associate Equity Strategist with the Chief Investment Office. Host: Griffin Marie.

In this latest CIO livestream, the CEO UBS Europe SE and Head of Wealth Management Europe, Christl Novakovic, hosts CIO speakers from around the world to talk about the investment implications for Europe's economy and asset classes under different outcomes of the 2020 US presidential and congressional elections.

There is quite a lot of inflation data out today. US consumer prices are probably still underreporting the US cost of living (food at home is rising in price quite a lot, but is weighted with pre-pandemic importance). However, an unusually large number of prices are falling, and an unusually small number of prices are rising, and we remain in a low inflation environment.

Today we turn our focus back to fixed income and check in on the recent performance of yield and income sectors. Featured is Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The ECB meets. The last US Federal Reserve meeting changed a relatively clear inflation target into a relatively vague inflation target. The ECB inflation target is already extremely vague, limiting their options. The euro may attract some comment?ECB Chief Economist Lane has already commented?but compared to fair value, the euro is not abnormally strong.

Today we check in on the 2020 US election cycle, though we will examine the potential impacts and implications of the elections to the emerging markets. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for the Emerging Markets Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UK government has announced what might be called the "Barnard Castle" approach to international law ? it will be broken, but in a specific and limited way. This is about the interminably tedious EU-UK divorce, and comes with risks: the EU may toughen its penalties in negotiations; international trade deals (especially with the US) may be harder; the UK's competitive advantage in rule of law may be affected.

Today we examine the similarities and differences when it comes to the performance of risk assets, economic conditions and monetary policy of 2000 and present-day, and what it all might mean for the trajectory of markets going forward. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump suggested that the US economy should decouple from China. In one sense, this has been happening for some time as a function of the fourth industrial revolution. Localization has been working against long and complex global supply chains. However, localization allows global companies to make goods close to their customers. Decoupling implies only domestic companies can serve domestic customers.

The US employment report was probably better than expected (forecast ranges are too wide to know exactly what was expected). A similar pattern is emerging in Europe, with furlough schemes unwinding more rapidly. Normally downturns are caused by imbalances, which damage labor markets for some time. This downturn was more like a light switch being turned off and on.

It is US employment report Friday. There are still some quality problems with the data, reflected in the fact that you could drive a family fleet of sports utility vehicles through the forecast range for non-farm payrolls. The range is 2.5 million jobs wide. The forecast range for unemployment has the rate rising, or falling, or staying unchanged.

Tune into the CIO's monthly chat about the markets. On today's webcast, Laura Kane, Head of Thematic Research and Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation, talk about today's main drivers: COVID-19, technology, reopening of the US economy, transformations in healthcare, the US election, investment opportunities as well as questions from the audience. HOST: Anthony Pastore.

2020 has resulted in many changes to how people live their everyday lives, as well as where they choose to live them. Today we highlight some recent trends when it comes to residential real estate, what an outlook looks like for both suburban and urban markets and more. Featured is Jon Woloshin, Real Estate and Lodging Analyst Americas, from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

July Eurozone retail sales data is due. Retail sales should capture the strongest part of the economic bounce-back. Consumers have emerged from the lockdown with money to spend and a desire to spend it. Trade data suggests that they are spending on things, not services. Retail sales may underreport this, given structural shifts in consumption patterns.