UBS On-Air

On this podcast we like to showcase the UBS House View recommendations versus those of our colleagues from partner asset manager firms. We also touch on timely macro developments and discuss how global markets and asset classes are being impacted. Today we focus on the economic trajectory of the US economy in 2021, expectations for earnings growth, trends that might remain with us as a result of the pandemic, the future of monetary and fiscal policy and more. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas for the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Richard Bernstein, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer, Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA). Host: Daniel Cassidy

As with many aspects of 2020, the holiday shopping season will have a different look and feel however the consumer is still forging ahead. Today we discuss how consumers are choosing to shop, the products on their radar this year, how retailers are adapting this the current environment and more. Featured is Rob Samuels, Consumer Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The failure of another generic clothing retailer says more about structural change than the pandemic. Automation is driving down the cost of personalization. The cost of being a retailer has fallen?you don't need a shop, just a good internet connection. Social media makes people brands, with a "merch link in bio" allowing followers to buy hoodies and baseball caps. (My merch links sell books, but I could add a hoodie branded "The interminably tedious EU-UK divorce" if there is demand.)

The focus after Black Friday in the US is normally how many people indulged in the US national sport of visiting the mall. This year the focus is the pandemic risks of large number of people moving around the country before Black Friday. The expected rise in infections is unlikely to change consumers' fear, but it might change policymakers' reactions and restrictions (which matters economically).

The British government announced new restrictions for England, after existing restrictions end next week. Chancellor Merkel urged the EU to close ski resorts next year?Switzerland and Scotland would not necessarily follow that. Money that would have been spent skiing may then be spent in other areas of the economy, but ski-related businesses will need fiscal support. The US Supreme Court voted to prevent restrictions on religious services. This has little immediate economic impact, but might lead to higher fear levels if case numbers rise.

US markets are closed to allow consumers to prepare themselves for the Black Friday shopping extravaganza tomorrow. An increase in travel over the holiday could be seen as a low level of fear about the virus (economically positive). Alternatively, it could be seen as spreading the virus, risking additional restrictions in two weeks (economically negative).

The world is moving in a greener direction and 2020 delivered much momentum in terms of interest and commitment from investors, the private sector and governments. Today we explore the progress made over the past year, what to expect in 2021 and where opportunities exist for your portfolio. Featured is Michelle Laliberte, Thematic Investing Associate Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Trade tensions are back. France is demanding payment of its digital tax. Collection was suspended earlier this year, liability was not. US President Trump previously threatened to tax US consumers of French handbags and lipsticks 25% in retaliation. This is unlikely to affect Christmas sales (the goods will already be in the US). The question is how the new administration reacts?there could be an attempt to revive OECD talks on digital taxation.

Today we turn our focus back to the muni market and discuss what 2021 might have in store for the asset class and how to position accordingly, along with reflections on how munis have performed recently relative to the broader market. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Reports suggest former US Federal Reserve Chair Yellen (who is an economist) will be nominated as US Treasury Secretary. We are not yet at the nirvana where economists run everything, but this is a step in the right direction. Fiscal policy and regulation will be key to tackling the cyclical challenges of the pandemic, and the structural issues of the fourth industrial revolution.

UBS Wealth Management USA recently launched the rising generation client segment. Listen in to learn about the unique qualities and financial needs of the rising generation, along with how the rising generation feels about the future, their shared goals and the roles the rising generation wishes to fulfill throughout their lives. Featured is Giselle Rivera, Head, Rising Generation Client Segment, UBS Client Strategy Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy Visit ubs.com/rising to learn more.

2020 has been a year like no other, and many investors are ready to turn the page and think about what the year ahead has in store for the markets, the economic recovery and their portfolios. Today my guest will discuss why to anticipate 2021 as being a year for renewal. Featured is Solita Marcelli, the Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets are following pandemic news at the moment?vaccine optimism seems to be supporting risk assets for the time being. While case numbers are rising in the US, these are (perhaps inevitably) in areas which have had fewer restrictions in place. That suggests a lower general level of fear about the virus.

With earnings season wrapping up and a cyclical rotation in swing, we recap the major developments moving markets. Topics include a review of third quarter earnings and macroeconomic events, CIO?s renewed positioning recommendations, and a preview of the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, CIO Associate Equity Strategist Americas. Host: Griffin Marie

We check in with the UBS US Office of Public Policy to discuss the latest developments within the beltway and beyond. Our conversation today will focus on the resurgence of COVID-19 cases and how states are responding, distribution plans for vaccines, troop drawdowns in the Middle East and more. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy