Poll Hub

White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said this week that President Donald Trump believes he has the “power” to fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller. But, do Americans think Mueller should be fired? In this edition of Poll Hub, the team discusses the latest poll numbers about the Mueller investigation and whether or not there has been a change in public opinion. Then, New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo faces a Democratic challenger in his bid for re-election. Does actress and education activist Cynthia Nixon pose a formidable threat to Cuomo in the primary? What has changed for Cuomo in the last four years, and what could this challenge mean for Cuomo should he run for president in 2020? Poll Hub breaks down brand new NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll numbers.  

Poll Hub and The Marist College Poll are pleased to present a special four-part panel series, 1968: The Year That Rocked American Politics. In this second installment of the series, the Poll Hub team welcomed journalist, filmmaker, and Distinguished Senior Fellow at Demos, Bob Herbert. Herbert, writer and producer of the documentary Against All Odds: The Fight for a Black Middle Class (http://www.pbs.org/video/chasing-dream-against-all-odds-full-film/), discusses 1968 as a pivotal year in the Civil Rights Movement, addresses where the quest for equality stands today, and reflects on his personal experiences during this tumultuous period. The entire event was streamed live on Facebook as will future conversations with Lynn Novick, co-director and co-producer of the film The Vietnam War, and author and political analyst, Jeff Greenfield. You can watch on our Facebook Page and if you follow us there, you’ll be notified when our next session goes live.  

With the deadline to file the questionnaire for the 2020 U.S. Census imminent, the Department of Commerce’s decision to include a question about citizenship is drawing ire. In this episode of Poll Hub, the team gets at the heart of the controversy, discusses the stakes for including the question, and clears up the confusion about the history of the U.S. Census. Then, it’s opening day for Major League Baseball. Poll Hub shares the latest Marist Poll numbers about baseball fans and a proposed rule change which would begin extra innings with a man on second base. Plus, a report from on the ground at spring training from special correspondent John Sparks. Let’s play ball!  

This spring Dr. Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, is bringing four distinguished guests to the Marist College campus in Poughkeepsie, New York for public conversations about 1968. We’ll talk about the war, civil rights, political upheaval and other issues that framed 1968 and how it relates to our current political climate. Our first guest was E.J. Dionne who is a syndicated columnist at The Washington Post and a Senior Fellow at The Brookings Institution. E.J. has been an insightful voice into cultural and political issues over the past several decades and is the author of numerous books including his most recent, “One Nation After Trump” written with Norman Ornstein and Thomas Mann. Our discussion took place in the Hancock Center here at Marist in front of an audience that included students, alumni, faculty and staff. This is a portion of the conversation. The entire event was streamed live on Facebook as will future conversations with Bob Herbert, Lynn Novick and Jeff Greenfield. You can watch at our Facebook Page (http://www.facebook.com/maristpoll) and if you follow us there, you’ll be notified when our next session goes live.

Tomorrow marks one month since the horrific school shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida. To remember those lost and to protest gun violence, students across the country are expected to walk out of their classrooms for 17 minutes. In this episode of Poll Hub, the team uses the latest Marist Poll (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/313-americans-support-students-right-to-walk-out-over-guns/) data to contextualize the scheduled protest. Do Americans think students who participate in the walkout should be punished by their schools? Do residents believe the Parkland students who are speaking out against gun violence will have an impact on the debate over guns, and are Americans more likely to support companies that dissociate themselves from the National Rifle Association?

The latest Marist Poll has President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 42%, his highest approval rating since taking office. In this week’s edition of Poll Hub, the crew provides an in-depth look at the factors driving the president’s improved standing and responds to the critiques of the poll’s methodology. Plus, Americans have spoken on the question of taxing steel and aluminum imports. Where do they stand? Poll Hub shares the latest findings. Then, CNN’s Harry Enten argues that President Trump may be unpopular, but his support is actually on the rise. Why there is a small flaw in our dear friend’s logic.  

A recent Washington Post analysis (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/03/01/why-are-white-people-so-much-less-willing-to-describe-trump-as-racist/?utm_term=.8e490b529724) by Philip Bump asserts Democrats are more likely to say they approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance when they respond to a poll conducted online or via IVR than by telephone. In turn, Bump argues, the president’s job approval rating is higher in polls conducted online rather by phone. In this episode, the Poll Hub team debunks Bump’s analysis through an in-depth discussion of social desirability, mode effects, and a study from the Pew Research Center and explains why omitting house effects from the analysis of survey research is dangerous.

It is a common pollster criticism during election seasons – oversampling either Democrats or Republicans. In this episode of Poll Hub, the team explains why modeling to party is an incorrect assumption, what party identification does and does not mean, and whether the two party system is in jeopardy. And, U.S. intelligence agencies say Russia has already taken steps to interfere in this year’s midterm elections. But, according to the latest Marist Poll, a majority of Americans do not think Russia will play a role in the elections. What accounts for the disconnect? Poll Hub takes a look.

Unlike his predecessors, President Donald Trump has tied his job performance to that of the stock market. With the Dow Jones plummeting at the beginning of the week, what does this mean for the president? Do Americans attribute the market’s ups and downs to him? Poll Hub breaks it down.   And, it’s time for the U.S. Census. Every ten years, there is debate about the questions to be included, and this year, that disagreement focuses on citizenship and race. What’s at stake? Why should we care? Spoiler alert: money is involved. Poll Hub explains.

The contents of the so-called “Nunes memo” are expected to be released as early as today. The memo has created a firestorm that, to some, signals a constitutional crisis nearing the level of Watergate. In this episode, Jay DeDapper speaks with Benjamin Wittes -- Editor in Chief of Lawfare, Senior Fellow in Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution, and author -- about the risks of releasing this sensitive information and what it means for the oversight Congress has over the intelligence community. Also, this week – President Donald Trump’s first State of the Union Address. The Poll Hub team discusses the post State of the Union “bounce” and what the polls taken immediately after the speech mean (and don’t mean) for the president. And, the NFL’s biggest day of the year is Sunday! Do Americans want the Philadelphia Eagles or the New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl? The results of the latest Marist Poll. About Poll Hub Poll Hub goes behind the science to explain how polling works, what polls really show, and what the numbers really mean. Poll Hub is produced by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, home of America’s leading independent college public opinion poll, The Marist Poll. Lee Miringoff (Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion), Barbara Carvalho (Director of The Marist Poll) and Jay DeDapper (Director of Innovation at The Marist Poll) dig deep to give you a look at the inner workings of polls and what they tell us about our world, our country, and ourselves.

The American workforce is undergoing a profound change. According to the latest NPR/Marist Poll (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/123-picture-of-work-in-the-united-states/) of the future of work, one in five American workers are contract workers. Who are they, and what kind of an impact do they have on the labor force? Poll Hub has the answers. And, the language of polls… Survey questions are a sign of the times. In this segment, the Poll Hub team looks back on questions dating back more than half a century and discusses how their phrasing has evolved over time. On the table are questions about race relations, interracial marriage, and a woman’s place in the workplace. 

Tomorrow marks one year since President Donald Trump took the oath of office. So, how’s the president doing? Despite a year marked by a job approval rating hovering in the thirties and a majority of Americans rating Trump’s presidency as a “failure,” there are some bright spots for the president. What are they, and what impact could President Trump’s job approval rating have on the 2018 midterm elections? The Poll Hub team digs into the results of the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/118-president-donald-trump-one-year-later/).   And, what is “sugging” and “frugging”? What people need to know about these techniques used to raise money under the guise of survey research.

Oprah Winfrey’s speech at the Golden Globes sparked renewed enthusiasm about a potential presidential candidacy by the journalist, talk show host, and actress. This week, Poll Hub takes an in-depth look at what the polls show about a possible Oprah run against President Donald Trump in 2020. They also dig into how the concept of an “outsider” candidate has evolved in politics.   And, it has been fifty years since the Supreme Court legalized interracial marriage in the case, Loving vs. Virginia. According to the Pew Research Center, three percent of all married couples in 1967 were interracial. In 2017, 17% of all newlywed couples were interracial. Using this data as a springboard, the Poll Hub team looks at how Americans’ attitudes toward marriage have changed over the past five decades and how the groundbreaking Loving case paved the way for greater acceptance of other societal changes.

In this episode of Poll Hub, the brain trust of The Marist Poll shares its poll watcher’s checklist for the 2018 midterm elections for United States Congress. What can pollsters and media pundits do to prevent the public from being pointed in the wrong direction? Stay tuned. And, according to the Pew Research Center, more and more people are getting their news from social media. The Poll Hub team picks up the topics of what role President Donald Trump plays in this trend, how social media impacts people’s understanding of the polls, and whether social media is the next step in the technology of public opinion research.