Business Standard Podcast

What is a lock-in period? As the name suggests, your investment is locked for a fixed period during which you cannot access your money. For example, in IPOs, the lock-in period for anchor investors is 30 days and hence they cannot sell the stake in the company for up to 30 days after listing. Mutual Funds There are three types of mutual funds. They are close-ended, open-ended mutual funds and interval funds. Close-ended mutual funds have a minimum lock-in period of three to five years. Like Equity Linked Savings Scheme has a lock-in period of three years. Most other mutual funds don’t have a lock-in period. For IPOs In IPOs, the lock-in period for anchor investors is 30 days. Anchor investors get guaranteed allotment a day before the IPO opens to the public. They are normally given 60 per cent of the qualified institutional buyer quota. Hedge Funds Hedge funds, which cater to high-net-worth individuals and institutional investors, typically have a lock-in period anywhere between 30 to 90 days. Fixed Deposits Tax saving fixed deposits come with a lock-in period of five years. It allows you to make an investment to save tax under section 80C of the Income Tax Act. ULIP Funds Under Unit Linked Insurance Plan or ULIP you not just fulfil your long-term goals through periodic investment, but also get the benefit of insurance. It has a minimum lock-in period of five years. Why is the lock-in period needed?    Lock-in periods are put in place to ensure that investors stay invested and not panic to volatile market movements. This helps investors in the longer term. For IPOs, the lock-in period restrains anchor investors or the private equity firms from selling the stake immediately after listing and thereby preventing volatility in the share prices. For mutual funds, the lock-in periods help in maintaining the liquidity and stability of the fund. 

Consumer inflation accelerated to five-month high in September to touch 7.41%. And at 8.6%, the inflation in food items was at a 22-month high last month. So as the retail inflation stayed above the upper limit of 2-6% band for the third straight quarter, all eyes are on RBI now. We ask what can the central bank do to calm the prices Imported inflation due to the war is also adding fuel to already high retail prices. The effect of war and global slowdown has reached Indian shores too. It has also derailed India’s start-up juggernaut. The country had added a record 44 unicorns in 2021. And in the July-September quarter, just two start-ups made it to the coveted unicorn list. Venture funding data from two separate sources indicates that Indian start-ups are in the middle of a harsh funding winter. While the global situation is not good, the slowdown is more pronounced in India.  Despite a bleak global background, top IT giants including TCS, HCL Technologies and Infosys have wrapped up their September quarter earnings that broadly came in line with the Street’s expectations. So, what do the Q2 results indicate for the IT sector amid growing fears of recession?  Pandemic disrupted economic activities across the world, throwing shocking growth numbers. India’s GDP growth too fell in the negative zone in 2020. But, next year, when there was a slight rebound in economic activities, the growth numbers again threw a surprise. But the sudden jump in GDP growth was due to the previous year’s low base. This episodeb of the podcast tells more about it. 

High inflation and a rising interest rate environment have seen global agencies such as the IMF and World Bank downgrade global growth estimates, raising recession fears.  However, India’s large-cap IT companies - TCS, HCL Tech and Infosys - broadly withstood these concerns in the July-September quarter.  Among frontline companies, TCS and HCL Tech beat expectations supported by sustained demand for digital initiatives. The companies posted quarterly revenue growth of 3.8-4% in constant currency terms.  Wipro, on the other hand, disappointed the Street with a 9% year-on-year drop in profit and a less-than-expected revenue growth of 14.6%.   Most companies reaffirmed that they did not witness any signs of demand slowdown, but they remain watchful of trends in key Western markets like Europe.  Experts, however, say that the robust deal wins and the commentary on demand outlook hint that near-term growth is likely to stay intact.  Gaurang Shah, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services says commentary on business outlook, deal pipeline comfortable. No major disappointment from Q2 results so far. Recession fears largely priced in stocks. For long-term, allocate 25% of investible funds at current levels. Even though attrition in companies remained elevated, at above 20% levels, a sequential margin improvement in the range of 16-90 basis points has provided some comfort.  Analysts expect margins to continue to improve going ahead as they believe attrition will likely taper down from here.  Apurva Prasad, Vice-President Institutional Research, HDFC Securities says, normalisation of attrition, utilisation, pricing positive levers for margins. Quarterly annualised attrition is trending down. Attrition to start declining in two to three quarters. Have built-in margin expansion in Q3, Q4-FY23. According to technical charts, shares of Infosys could remain range-bound in the next 3-6 months between levels of 1600-1200 rupees.  While those of TCS and HCL Tech could see a good run on crossing levels of 3200 and 1000 rupees, respectively.  Wipro, on the other hand, could see a fresh sell-off on breaching support of 378 rupees.  Today, markets will react to US retail inflation reading, while stock-specific action will likely be seen in Infosys and Bajaj Auto. 

If we take any data point or index, it is often contextualised by comparing it with a reference point, which is usually the same period of last year or the previous month. Now, this reference point or base can have an effect on the result of the comparison, and this phenomenon is commonly referred to as base effect. If the base for which the comparison is made is low, then the outcome is a result of a low-base effect and vice-versa. When comparing two data points, choosing a reference point will be crucial as the base effect can highly distort or mislead the interpretation of numbers. The base effect could also result in major differences in percentage comparisons. If we chose a reference point that is too low, there could be an overestimation and if the base is too high, it could result in gross underestimation of the situation. If we take the May industrial production numbers, for example, the growth rate is unusually high as last year's base was impacted due to the coronavirus pandemic. However, IIP growth was up just 1.7% compared to pre-Covid periods, and the manufacturing is in fact lagging. Choosing a different reference point, that is pre-Covid level, resulted in a better understanding on how the industrial activity in the country is actually performing. Industrial output is only one example and abnormally high or low economic estimates are often the result of a base effect. A year after the pandemic hit, GDP growth rates were unusually high as the lockdowns stalled the economic activity during reference time periods. India’s GDP grew by a massive 20% in the first quarter of FY22 on the back of a low-base when the economy contracted 24% in the same period previous year.

India’s retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index, soared to 7.4% in September, up from August’s 7%. This rise was fuelled by higher food prices.  Data released by the National Statistical Office showed that food inflation, which accounts for nearly 40% of the CPI basket, came in at a 22-month high of 8.6%.  The latest reading highlights the Reserve Bank of India’s challenges in bringing inflation within its medium term target of 4%, with a variation of 2 percentage points on either side. Inflation has now remained above RBI’s upper tolerance level of inflation of 6% for three consecutive quarters. RBI Act says that the central bank will have to submit a report to the central government explaining the reasons for failing to meet the inflation target and remedial steps to rein in the price rise. RBI is facing such a consequence for the first time since the onset of the inflation-targeting Monetary Policy Framework that came into effect in August 2016. Last month, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had said the central bank considers the communication to the government missing the inflation targets as privileged communication and will not be making it public. Inflation had overshot the target for over three quarters during the initial months of the pandemic as well, but a technical shortcoming in the data collection, wherein data was collected without visiting the mandis because of the lockdown, had helped ensure that no such explanation has to be done by the RBI at that time.   RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee has raised the repo rate by 190 basis points since May to 5.9%, and economists expect it to raise rates yet again by at least 25 basis point at its next meeting in the first week of December.  Late withdrawal of monsoon and intense rain spells seen in some states has had an impact on the price of perishables, especially vegetables.  During September, prices of vegetables increased 18.05% from a year ago while cereal prices rose 11.53% Spices added to broad-based food price pressure with 16.9% inflation. Clothing and footwear prices jumped 10.17% while fuel and electricity prices increased 10.39%, staying above the 10% mark for the fourth consecutive month. Key rice producing states such as Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Jharkhand reeled under excessively deficit rainfall this season, weighing on paddy sowing and anticipated output. The weakening of the rupee by over 10% this year has made imports costlier for consumers and businesses. Meanwhile, industrial output contracted 0.8% in August after showing a 2.2% growth in July. A note by QuantEco research said that slowdown appeared to be broad based with noticeable drag in consumption-oriented production even as investment-oriented production too has seen loss of momentum in recent months. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its growth forecast for India to 6.8% for 2022-23.  Speaking to Business Standard, Vivek Kumar, Economist, QuantEco Research says food and fuel accounted for 62% of Sept inflation. They are largely interest rate agnostic. Transmission of rate hikes takes 2-4 quarters. We hope MPC would raise rates by 35bps in Dec.  Since the inflation print is heavily influenced by food prices, which are volatile and lately affected by global development, the RBI’s toolkit is limited. Thus, actions by the central bank will have to be complemented by further government steps on non-core food and fuel items. Failure to do so will damage India’s inflation-managing credentials.  

Consumers are returning to malls and standalone shops, after two years of shutdown across offline retail stores due to Covid-19. This comes even as pinching inflation makes goods dearer. Though the pandemic drove a new trend of digital-centric customer, a recent report by BCG-RAI indicated that India’s consumption surpassed pre-pandemic growth levels of 17 per cent. Malls, too, have begun to see increased footfalls in lower-tier towns as mobility improves. Now, with retailers ramping up their expansion plans in FY23, analysts expect the same-store-sales-growth figures to improve in the first half of the ongoing fiscal.  Speaking to Business Standard, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, says sharp rebound in India’s GDP augurs well for retail. As consumption is seeing an uptick in metros and urban areas, retail stocks are good bet for the long-term. Avenue Supermarts a favourable buy, he says.   To fight higher inflation and increase in freight and power costs, Indian retail players have undertaken several rounds of price hikes over the past couple of months.  Jubilant Food, Westlife Development, V-Mart Retail, Barbeque Nation and Devyani International, for instance, hiked prices in the range of 6 per cent to 11 per cent in April 2022. Hence, coupled with softer commodity prices, analysts expect consumer spending to rebound in the near-term. Nishit Master, Portfolio Manager, Axis Securities, says shift of consumer preference a positive for retail, and do not expect spending to dilute any time soon. ABFRL, Trent, V-Mart Retail stocks are attractive bets, he says. On the bourses, retail stocks have performed mixed over the last six months.  While stocks like V-Mart Retail, Barbeque Nation, and Jubilant Foodworks shed up to 33 per cent; Shoppers Stop, Trent and Metro Brands gained up to 56 per cent. In comparison, both Nifty50 and the S&P BSE Sensex tanked over 10 per cent during the period. Meanwhile, this week, India’s macro data will steer markets as investors track wholesale and retail inflation data for June. Besides, HCL Tech, Mindtree, L&T Infotech and HDFC Bank will be among the key companies slated to report their Q1FY23 numbers this week.

Nine technical glitches in the last two months in aircraft of an airline are not only unusual, but alarming too. This not just forced aviation regulator DGCA to issue a show-cause notice to SpiceJet, but also triggered a debate around flight safety. And it comes at a time when airports are seeing a jump in footfall, and two more airlines are waiting in the wings to hit the sky. So in today’s podcast we ask if incidents involving SpiceJet can be brushed aside as aberrations? Or does it call for a reality check by the regulator? From the Indian skies, let us shift our focus to the country’s retail sector, where Reliance is on a shopping spree. It recently partnered with GAP to bring the luxury fashion brand back to India. And apart from GAP, Reliance has brought home some 35 international brands. Find uot more about Reliance Retail’s growth strategy. The revenue of Reliance Retail has grown five-fold in the last five years. Meanwhile, IT services giant Tata Consultancy Services is set to announce its June quarter earnings today. Our next report tells what analysts expect from TCS results, and what could be the road ahead for the company. Meanwhile, some experts see the RBI’s recent measures to shore up rupee as a ‘knee-jerk’ reaction – which may send wrong signals to the stock markets. They said that the country is still sitting on a pretty-high forex reserve. But ever wondered what is the forex reserve? Let us find out in this episode of the podcast. 

India’s $900 billion retail market has emerged as one of the most dynamic industries and is expected to reach anywhere between $1.3-$1.5 trillion by 2025. The organized retail is seen gaining 15% market share in the overall retail space, while food & grocery and apparel and lifestyle may account for 80% of India’s retail market by 2025. Large market offers big opportunities. And it looks like Reliance Retail has seized it, with its massive omni-channel retail play of physical stores, B2B with kiranas and e-commerce. The company went on an acquisition spree and partnerships in the last three years, adding to its portfolio some of the biggest names, including Hamleys, Dunzo, Zivame etc. It has also partnered with famous global retail chain 7-Eleven. Catering to India’s affluent consumers, Reliance, meanwhile, houses some of the most iconic brands such as Versace, Armani Exchange, GAP, GAS, Jimmy Choo, Michael Kors among others. The premium segment has become one of the fastest growing categories. Also firming up its inorganic play, the company is planning to acquire dozens of niche local consumer brands to build a formidable consumer goods business. Arvind Singhal, Chairman and Managing Director, Technopak Advisors says, there's focus on physical retail expansion. Reliance is looking to cater to both price conscious and brand conscious customers, while trying to capture as much of the private consumption market as possible, he says. Reliance Retail’s competitors are nowhere close to even put up a fight. The company has over 15,000 offline stores across categories, compared with DMart’s 294 stores or Aditya Birla Fashion’s 3,468 outlets. Reliance retail’s revenue has grown five times in the last five years and the core retail revenue of $18 billion is greater than competitors combined, according to a Bernstein report. Speaking to Business Standard, Devangshu Dutta, CEO, Third Eyesight, says, Reliance wants a decent share of Indian consumers’ wallet. From that perspective, Reliance still has a long way to go, he says. As consumer preferences evolve, Reliance too should adapt.  An undisputed leader in the domestic market, the aim of Reliance, according to Mukesh Ambani, is to become one of the top 10 retailers globally. Part of this bet is based on the premise that incomes and consumption power of Indians will increase across the board in coming years. However, could the uneven recovery that different segments of the population have seen stop the pie from growing larger and prove to be a dampener for Ambani’s ambitions? 

Fears of a global recession, especially in the US and Europe, are mounting by the day. Yet, analysts expect Indian IT companies to post steady performance for the April-June quarter. IT major TCS, for instance, may report modest revenue growth later today, led by seasonal strength and robust digital transformation projects. Omkar Tanksale, Senior Research Analyst, Axis Securities says TCS to report 3.4% sequential revenue growth in rupee terms. Strong IT services demand is likely to remain intact and we can expect margins to decline between 80-100 bps QoQ.  Not just TCS, but the entire industry is expected to see the long-standing pain of margin decline due to unabated supply-side pressures, as per experts. Besides, they believe quarterly revenue growth may have varied for companies due to seasonal factors. Speaking to Business Standard, Ashis Dash, IT analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas says, we can expect a steady Q1 for IT sector. Infosys, TCS are likely to see strong revenue growth in Constant Currency. Weak seasonality to dent Tech M, Wipro’s revenue growth. Higher travel expenses, retention costs to erode EBIT sequentially across companies. Kotak Institutional Equities pegs revenue growth on yearly basis to range from 2-4.5% for tier-1 and 3-5% for mid-tier companies. EBIT margins, meanwhile, could decline 70-400 bps YoY. That said, despite a strong near-term demand outlook, analysts caution that risks to long-term growth have increased significantly. Analysts at Motilal Oswal anticipate the impact to be felt in the second half of FY23 and in FY24. The brokerage has trimmed its FY23 and FY24 EPS estimate for the sector by 2-5%, despite a positive 300-400 bps impact from weaker rupee. On the bourses, market experts believe that related stocks haven't completely priced-in a recessionary environment. According to Motilal Oswal, near-term pressure on valuations will continue as the worsening macro commentary is likely to impact industry deal flow and revenue over the next few quarters. However, it suggests investors utilize any consequent correction to raise allocation to the sector. Apart from corporate earnings, investors will monitor the US employment data for market trajectory today. 

It is not every day that the Directorate General of Civil Aviation, the regulatory body that deals with India’s air safety, issues show-cause notice to an airline for allegedly failing to establish “safe, efficient and reliable air services”. One such notice went to SpiceJet on Wednesday. The the Ajay Singh-led airline was involved in nine air safety incidents since May 1st.  Three of those were reported on July 5 alone, which included a flight diversion to Karachi. On July 2nd, another SpiceJet plane returned to Delhi due to smoke in the cabin. Meanwhile, a Vistara aircraft suffered an engine snag after landing in Delhi from Bangkok on July 6th.  Speaking to Business Standard, aviation safety expert Captain Amit Singh said, there has been a general rise in incidents in last 6 months. We‘ve seen accidents with trainer aircraft, small planes and helicopters. But the Indian aviation industry is apperently happy with doing the bare minimum. The DGCA said that a review of several incidents involving SpiceJet’s planes since April 1 showed that “the aircraft either turned back to its originating station or continued landing to the destination with degraded safety margins”. In response, SpiceJet said all its aircraft were audited a month ago by the regulator and found to be safe. Ajay Singh said a lot of these incidents are trivial in nature and happen to every airline. DGCA chief Arun Kumar too said that about 30 flight incidents happen every day in the country and a majority of them have no safety implication. However, the strong words used by DGCA in its notice to SpiceJet have raised an alarm.  A review of incidents by the watchdog showed “poor internal safety oversight and inadequate maintenance actions” by the airline.  During a financial review of the airline in September, it found that SpiceJet’s suppliers were not being paid regularly leading to a shortage of spares. Captain Amit Singh said, DGCA’s comments on SpiceJet highlights systemic failure. Regulator’s action is coming too late, said, adding that DGCA has regulations in place, but implementation is the problem. Last month, the DGCA suspended operations of two flying training schools due to serious safety concerns including unsafe runway and dysfunctional fuel gauge indicators on aircraft. However, Indian civil aviation currently enjoys the highest safety rating from the US Federal Aviation Authority. India is reportedly set to retain the Category I rating as the FAA completed its latest audit of DGCA in April. In 2014, when the FAA downgraded India’s safety ratings, Indian airlines like Jet Airways and Air India faced multiple restrictions including a bar on expanding flights to the US while their existing flights faced extra checks. The International Civil Aviation Organization, a specialised agency of the United Nations, is also expected to conduct an audit of India's air safety readiness sometime later this year.  In recent years, there has been a growing talk of India having an international transit hub like the one in Dubai. Also, India is projected to become the third largest aviation market in terms of passengers by 2024. All of this means more passengers and flights and so it is doubly urgent to find a lasting solution to flight safety issues. 

The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday announced a host of measures to boost forex inflows and push the value of rupee. The steps include doubling the borrowing limits for companies from overseas to $1.5 billion, temporarily removing interest-rate cap for banks to attract deposits from NRIs and relaxing rules for foreigners to invest in local-currency bonds. In the first quarter of the current financial year, the merchandise trade deficit more than doubled to $70.25 billion year-on-year from $31.42 billion. This comes on the back of a surge in global crude and commodity prices due to war in Europe. Also, the rupee has plunged six per cent against the dollar this year.   Apart from the falling rupee, the country’s depleting foreign exchange reserves or forex reserve is also troubling the central bank. It has dropped nearly six billion dollars to about $593 billion. All that we have told you so far begs the question, what exactly do we mean when we say forex reserves? Forex reserves are regarded as the health meter of a country. These reserves are assets like foreign currencies, gold reserves, and treasury bills, among other things, maintained by a country’s central bank or other monetary authority, which checks the balance of payments, deals with the foreign exchange rate of currency and maintains financial market stability. So what are the key components of forex reserve? RBI Act and the Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999 govern the foreign exchange reserves. It can be broken into four categories. The first and largest component is foreign currency assets — it constitutes about 80% of the total portfolio. India invests heavily in US treasury bills and about 75% of the country’s foreign currency assets are invested in dollar denominated securities. Then comes the investment in gold, and special drawing rights from the IMF. And the last is the Reserve Tranche Position. So, what is the purpose of the foreign exchange reserves? First, to ensure that the RBI has backup funds if the rupee rapidly devalues or becomes altogether insolvent. Second, if the value of the rupee decreases due to an increase in demand for foreign currency, then the RBI can and does sell the dollar in the Indian money market so that rupee depreciation can be checked. Third, a good stock of forex establishes a good image for the country at the international level as trading countries can be sure about their payments, thus helping in attracting foreign trade.

India is seeing yet another showdown between Twitter and regulators. And the recent one is being played out in the corridors of Karnataka High Court. The microblogging site has challenged some of the government’s directives asking it to take down certain posts. Twitter is not ready to budge, and so is the government. We find out why there is a growing unease between the government and the Big Tech in India. After the government’s brush with Big Tech, let us move on to its policies governing special economic zones, or SEZs, which have delivered mixed results. It is now coming up with a new law to address some of the problems plaguing the SEZ ecosystem. We look at India’s experience with SEZs over the years and the challenges ahead in making the new legislation, if brought in, a success. The revamped law indeed offers hope to 268 operational SEZs of the country. Let us now move on to a commodity, which has been threatening to derail economies. West Texas Intermediate, or WTI crude futures slipped below $100 a barrel mark for the first time since May 11 on Tuesday. Is the era of high oil prices getting over, or was that a temporary blip? From Citi to JP Morgan and Jefferies, analysts have a varied forecast of how they see oil prices playing out.  Companies go to the primary markets to raise money through IPO. Some of the IPOs are well-received while others are not. A Bloomberg report says that the IPO of Indian startup OfBusiness is one of the keenly awaited issues in Asia. So, how do we apply for an IPO? Find out in this episode of the podcast. 

The confrontation between big tech companies and the Indian government over the country’s new IT rules escalated on Tuesday after Twitter moved the Karnataka High Court challenging the IT ministry’s order to remove content and block multiple accounts on the US microblogging platform.  According to the writ petition, which has been seen by Business Standard, Twitter contended that many of the blocking orders issued under section 69A of the Information Technology Act, 2000, were “overbroad, arbitrary and disproportionate”, and failed to give notice to authors of the content. It also said that some were related to political content posted by official handles of political parties, the blocking of which amounted to violation of freedom of speech. Twitter further argued that the content at issue does not have any apparent proximate relationship to the grounds under Section 69A. Hours after the petition was filed, Minister of State for IT Rajeev Chandrasekhar said all foreign internet platforms have a right to approach the courts, but they also have an unambiguous obligation to comply with local laws and rules. Twitter would risk losing its safe harbour protection under the intermediary rules if it refuses to comply with the blocking order while its executives could face jail terms of up to seven years.  Under the IT rules that took effect in February last year, Twitter’s Chief Compliance Officer faces criminal liability for Twitter’s non-compliance under Section 69A. Another provision requires strict confidentiality on all blocking requests from the government and actions taken by an intermediary. [Byte of Avimukt Dar, Founding Partner, INDUSLAW] Twitter is not the first tech company to take the government to court over the IT rules. Meta-owned messaging platform WhatsApp had approached the Delhi High Court in May last year requesting it to quash a provision that mandated companies to divulge the “first originator of information”. WhatsApp said the traceability rule would break the very guarantees that end-to-end encryption provides and undermines peoples’ right to privacy.  The government says that the right to privacy is not “absolute” and it is “subject to reasonable restrictions”. WhatsApp claims 500 million users in India whereas for Twitter, India is its third biggest market although estimates of its users in the country vary from 24 million to 48 million.  Regulations shouldn’t just be fair, their enforcement must also appear to be fair. With that in mind, won’t the appearance of arbitrariness or bias in enforcement only weaken the government’s efforts to regulate big tech? 

Special economic zones (SEZs) were set up to promote export-oriented manufacturing, domestic investments and improve ease of doing business. Business units in these zones were given a host of incentives including tax exemptions, duty free exports, access to better infra among others. Units in SEZ enjoy 100% income tax exemption on profits from export for the initial five years. And 50% for the next five years. But the World Trade Organization has ruled that these export incentives were against its rules. Nations are not allowed to directly subsidize exports, as it kills competition and distorts market prices. Even though the exports from SEZs increased to Rs 7.59 trillion in FY21 from just Rs 22,840 crore in FY06, it was nowhere close to the success achieved by China. One of the main reasons was the size of the special economic zones in India as compared to China, which has manufacturing zones in the size of mega cities strategically located close to ports and trade-friendly locations such as Hong Kong. The competitive advantage that Indian SEZs enjoyed also waned over the years. Several businesses have also moved away from these zones due to alleged lack of consistency in policy. The withdrawal of tax concessions and the sunset clause along with several ASEAN countries relaxing their regulatory laws lured these business units to shift shops. The huge parcels of land under the SEZs are also under-utilised and lying vacant due to sector-specific restrictions. Now through the Development Enterprise and Services Hub (DESH) Bill, 2022, the government is moving away from the original idea of export-oriented production and is proposing to allow the business units in SEZs to sell in domestic markets more easily and boost domestic manufacturing. The draft bill also talks about setting up an integrated and decentralised single window clearance mechanism for time-bound approvals hubs. If indeed India needs the special hubs, the govt must address the critical gaps in existing SEZ law through the DESH bill and it must be thought through before bringing it to the Parliament. Effective implementation of the law could act as a lever to India's growth.

West Texas Intermediate, or WTI crude futures slipped below $100 a barrel mark for the first time since May 11 on Tuesday - falling nearly 10 per cent in intraday trade before recouping some of the loss. The sharp fall, according to oil watchers, came on the back of concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately dent demand. Meanwhile, Citi on Tuesday suggested that oil prices could dip to $65 per barrel by 2022-end and $45 by the 2023-end in case of a global recession and demand tanks. On the other hand, oil bulls see the prices surge despite recession. Those at JP Morgan, for instance, see oil prices at $380 per barrel in a worst case scenario if Russia starts cutting crude oil production in retaliation for the sanctions.  Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, too, expects the oil to hit $150 a barrel going ahead amid geopolitical concerns. One way oil can spike higher is escalation of the Ukraine conflict and a resulting decision by Europe to take concrete action to stop buying Russian energy, says Woods. Such a risk has grown with the reports of atrocities committed by Russian forces and related allegations of war crimes. All of this makes it harder to negotiate a deal, he says.  But to what extent is the oil market pricing all the fears in, and is the fall in oil prices temporary?  Paul Hickin, Associate Editorial Director, S&P Global Commodity Insights says dated brent will trade above $100/bbl till 2022-end. While there will be supply-side risks around Russia and OPEC+, recession fears have started to trickle in. There's pressure on India, China from EU regarding Russian oil use, he says. So, all this means that we still will continue to pay higher prices for petrol and diesel for now – unless the government cuts excise duty on these two products.  Technically, here are the key levels you need to watch on MCX Crude that trades close to Rs 7,800 mark