Business Standard Podcast

The BJP-led central government will table its last full budget in the Parliament tomorrow. A lot is at stake, both for the government and for the industry too. Outside the corridors of power, people are also curious. Hit hard by inflation, they also expect some relief. And it is not just the personal tax rationalisation. They want more. Business Standard hits the street to find out what people want from the government. FMCG sector too is pinning its hopes on the budget. The segment has been hit hard by the pandemic. Over two years on, some green shoots are visible in rural demand. But what will it take to sustain it? And what do the consumer goods companies expect from this budget? Business Standard’s Sharleen Dsouza caught up with Soumya Mohanty -- the Managing Director & Chief Client Officer of Kantar’s South Asia, Insights Division.  Investors community is also keeping the fingers crossed. While hopes are high for a budget that will fire growth engines, debt market investors are worried about the government’s borrowing plans for the next financial year. Find out about the expectations of the bond markets, and what should be your strategy for fixed income securities. Indian markets ended in green on Monday after three days of losing streak triggered by Hindenburg Research’s report on Adani group. The US-based firm has said it held short positions in Adani Group companies through US bonds and derivative instruments. But, what is short-selling? And how do traders use this market strategy to maximise gains? Find out in this segment of the podcast. 

The King is back! That is how moviegoers have reacted to ‘Pathaan’, the spy-thriller that marks the return of Shah Rukh Khan to the big screen after over four years. Released on the 25th of January, the film got off to a roaring start, reportedly recording advance sales higher than Disney's Brahmastra and on par with all-time hits ‘Baahubali 2’ and ‘KGF: Chapter 2’. So, what is behind this blockbuster opening?  After movies, let us shift focus to the world of academia. The percentage of women applicants for JEE- Mains entrance examination hit a record of 30% this year. It may translate into more women in jobs in related fields in the future. But the representation of women in assemblies, in the Parliament and in several other social spheres is still low. So will a jump in women enrolment in higher education change this skewed equation in the long run?  Frontline indices saw the biggest selloff in a month on Wednesday as pre-budget nervousness gripped Dalal Street. Monthly F&O expiry added to this nervousness. So as we begin the new February series, how should investors position themselves ahead of the Union Budget?  Markets regulator Sebi’s Rs 625 cr disgorgement order against NSE was quashed last week by the Securities Appellate Tribunal. Two former CEOs of the country’s largest bourse were also given relief by the tribunal which set aside disgorgement of their 25% salary in the co-location scam. In this segment of the podcast, we explain what a disgorgement order is and more.

The Securities and Appellate Tribunal or SAT has set aside the Sebi’s 625-crore rupee disgorgement order against NSE in the alleged colocation scam case, saying that it was “patently erroneous”. The tribunal also slammed the markets regulator for not conducting its own probe and, instead, asking the bourse to probe the allegations against itself. SAT also observed that Sebi’s decision to disgorge 25% of the salaries of two former NSE CEOs was erroneous and set it aside. So, does SAT’s order change the whole course of the case?  Sebi is also busy drafting guidelines for financial influencers, who, off late, have been giving tough time to the markets regulator. Meanwhile, the central government has also come out with a set of guidelines governing social media endorsements. Under it, the influencers will now have to mandatorily disclose all material benefits they receive in exchange for promoting a product or service. There is also a provision for a six-month and a fine or both for violations. So what impact will it have on the influencer industry?  Moving on, equity markets have remained muted for most part of January amid pre-budget volatility. As we enter the last leg, how will the market trajectory play out in the run up to the Union Budget and in the following days? We look at the past trends to bring you the answer. Last Friday, over two lakh depositors heaved a sigh of relief when Bombay High Court set aside Yes Bank’s decision to write off additional tier-1 or AT-1 bonds. In this episode of the podcast, we tell you more about these high-yielding but unsecured bonds. 

India’s largest fast-moving consumer goods company Hindustan Unilever reported over 7% jump in its net profit in the third quarter ending December 2022. So is it a sign that the consumption is picking up in rural areas -- where 2/3 of India’s population lives. And if yes, will it sustain?  Revival in rural consumption will indeed help India -- which is poised to become the world’s fastest growing major economy this year. Meanwhile, neighbouring China, which is being pitched as India’s rival by the West, is slowing down. Its ageing population and policies are being cited as the reasons. For decades, China’s population fuelled its growth and that of the world. Now it is India’s turn which appears to have overtaken China as the world’s most populous nation. So what can India learn from its powerful neighbour on the demographic front?  Indian government, meanwhile, is giving final touches to its annual budget which will be tabled on February 1. So how will equity markets behave in the run up to the budget? Will it finally see some decisive moves after remaining muted this month?  Infrastructure development is likely to remain the key focus area in the upcoming budget. In the previous budget, the government had allotted 4,710 crore rupees for the country's first Regional Rapid Transit System (RRTS) project which will connect Delhi to Meerut. We tell about RRTS and more in this episode of the podcast. 

The government has proposed a slew of changes to the six-year old Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code and has also sought suggestions from the public. The aim is to fast-track the resolution process and strengthen the functioning of IBC. So will the proposed overhaul make the insolvency resolution process more effective?  A Bill to amend the IBC is likely to come up in the Budget session of Parliament. Meanwhile, India’s education sector is also crying for the budget maker’s attention. A recent countrywide survey has revealed that India’s school students have regressed in their basic reading ability to pre-2012 levels while their basic maths skills declined to 2018 levels. Is this then a wake-up call for policymakers to turn their focus on school education?  In other news, ports-to-energy player Adani Enterprises has announced a follow-on public offering worth Rs 20,000 crore. The FPO will open on January 27 and close on January 31. However, a day after the announcement, shares of the company slumped over 4 per cent to hit a two-month low of 3,446 rupees per share. However, analysts recommend subscribing to the offer as they re-iterate the conglomerate’s large play on renewable energy.    Indian markets snapped a two-day winning streak due to weak US economic data on Thursday. Meanwhile, most business leaders of the world are in Europe. Few events on the earth boast of such an impressive and long list of guests. Every year, hundreds of business tycoons, politicians and billionaires -- who can make some difference to this world -- pack their bags and head to Davos for the annual World Economic Forum meeting. This segment of the podcast tells you more about this forum. Also, how it came into being, and what purpose it serves.         

Sales of passenger vehicles set a fresh record last year with more than 3.8 million units rolling out of showrooms. And out of it, the share of SUVs was over 42%. The mightier SUV overtook its humble rival, the hatchback, for the first time in 2022. The just-concluded auto expo in Greater Noida also reflected the mood on the streets. So why have SUVs become the first choice of most Indian families?  While India’s auto sales reflected the country’s booming economy, those of Pakistan’s revealed a lot about its uncertain future. Car sales in Pakistan dropped by 51% in Q1FY23. An IMF report also said this week that Pakistan is South Asia’s weakest economy. Amid this turmoil, the country’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has stepped up overtures to India. In a recent interview, Sharif has asked Prime Minister Narendra Modi to come to the table for talks. How should India respond?  Meanwhile, India continued to make big strides toward a better future. The government recently approved the green hydrogen mission with an initial outlay of Rs 19,744 crore to fast-track India’s transition to clean energy. The green hydrogen focus has encouraged participation from India’s largest corporate houses. So which related stocks should be on your radar?  From Mumbai's bustling financial markets, let us shift our focus to the serene hills of Uttarakhand. A small town in the hill state, Joshimath, was struck by a tragedy this month. The hill under it is subsiding and residents are being relocated. Joshimath also serves as the gateway to Badrinath -- one of the four pilgrimages in Char Dham yatra. This episode of the podcast tells about this pilgrimage and more.  

India Inc’s yearly outlook is the most cautious in a decade. That is the finding of PwC’s Annual Global CEO Survey. It comes at a time when India is being seen as a bright spot in a global economy that is beset by recession fears. So, what are the domestic and global factors driving India Inc’s outlook?  Indian economy, meanwhile, is still resilient. Fast adoption of digital payments is one of the reasons. And UPI has the main role to play in mainstreaming the digital payments. The NPCI is now extending the UPI service to NRIs in ten countries -- who can use their international numbers to send money back home. So how will it change the life of NRIs? And how will it impact the existing remittance focused players?  Meanwhile, as the cold wave took north India into its grip, the demand for power crossed 200-gigawatt last week. This was close to peak demand of 216 GW, recorded in summer months last year. After power stocks delivered up to triple-digit returns in calendar year 2022, analysts forecast a robust year ahead for the sector.  After the markets, let us shift our focus to the global supply chain which saw big disruption during the pandemic. India too was hit. But the government is working to stave off any such future crisis. The work on the country’s first mega container trans-shipment port-- which is coming up at Galathea Bay in Great Nicobar Island -- is expected to begin soon. Expression of interest is likely to be floated in a few days from now. Once operational, this terminal will host large international container ships. Find out what is a trans-shipment port. And also, why this new terminal is crucial for India?

India’s rank in ease of doing business has improved from 142 in 2014 to 63 in 2022. A slew of schemes and steps taken by the government led to this improvement, but clearly there is a long stretch to cover. The government is now planning to integrate all the different identities of businesses into one single identity: Permanent Account Number, or PAN. The motivation behind this is to optimise operations and allow better data sharing. So exactly how will it help businesses? And are there any challenges?    There is another sector which is aiming for stars now due to a government push. The Centre had opened the sky for private players about two years ago. Now the Kerala government has decided to move ahead with the plan of building a space park in Trivandrum. One other such space park project on the making in the country is in Bangalore. These parks will give private companies and start-ups the platform to make launch-vehicles, satellites and other components for the sector. But are these space parks ready to take off? And how will they help private players in their ambition to capture the global market?  Moving on to markets, as against expectations, IT firms withstood the global uncertainty and delivered firm results in the December quarter supported by strong deal wins and improved margins. So how will the Q3 earnings impact the beaten-down IT shares amid persisting global risks?  After the markets, let us shift the focus to the ongoing tussle between the judiciary and legislature. Vice-President Jagdeep Dhankar questioned the landmark Kesavananda Bharati case verdict last week, saying it set a wrong precedent. In the 1973 case, the Supreme Court had laid down “the basic structure of the Constitution” doctrine. Let's find out more about this doctrine in this episode of the podcast. 

High attrition rates and fear of recession in key western markets kept India’s IT sector on its toes last year. While attrition has come down, experts suggest that a recession is imminent. Against this backdrop, what do the recent results of IT majors and their guidance say about the future of the sector?  Indian automobile companies, meanwhile, don’t see the looming global recession as a threat to their growth. They have lined up a host of new launches. And most of them are at display at the ongoing auto expo in Greater Noida. So what makes the 16th Auto Expo different?  There is much more to the Indian rupee also than what meets the eye. The domestic currency surprised everyone by starting 2023 on an optimistic note after depreciating over 10% against the US dollar last year. Take a deep dive into what lies ahead for it in the near-term. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the world’s longest river cruise -- MV-Ganga Vilas last week. It will be one big leap in the country’s luxury tourism. The cruise will start the journey from Varanasi and voyage through ganga-Brahmaputra rivers to reach its final destination in Dibrugarh. Find more about it in this segment of the podcast.   

Before the September 2021 relief package, telecom companies in India had faced a number of challenging years amid mounting fears that the sector would effectively end up seeing a duopoly between Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel. The year 2022 saw the much-anticipated 5G auction, which opened up new avenues for telcos, but also came with its own set of challenges. Overall, it seemed that the sector was on the path to recovery. But, will that process continue in 2023? Or will it end up losing steam?  Not just the telcom, other sectors too are expecting some relief from the upcoming Union budget. Economy has opened up. People are travelling like they used to before the pandemic struck. The consumption is rising and the demand for bank credit is also up. So will it lead to the start of an investment cycle?  The IT sector was one of the key driving forces behind India’s health economic growth. It is set to pass the earnings baton to banks as the season enters its second leg. HDFC Bank will kick off the sector’s results with its numbers on Saturday. Analysts feel the pack, as a whole, is expected to see best in class results this quarter with public sector banks faring better than private peers. The key, however, will be sustainability of the trend in the quarters ahead.  Meanwhile, a warning from the World Health Organisation (WHO) has stirred a debate around alcohol consumption. It said that any amount of alcohol may have adverse ramifications. Know more about it in this episode of the podcast.

Q: What do you think really made True Beacon and Zerodha successful?  Ans: >The industries were ripe for a change when True Beacon and Zerodha was founded >The industries were ripe for a change when True Beacon and Zerodha was foundedThe industries were ripe for a change when True Beacon and Zerodha was founded   Q: In the world of startups, your startups stand out because you chose to bootstrap, and then you focused on being cash-flow positive. What advice you want to give to the entrepreneurs thinking to start their own startups?  Ans: >Consider what the market is willing to give at that point  >At a time of high inflation and rising interest rates, raising capital is going to be harder than what it was five to 10 years ago >Companies should focus on profitability  Q: Recently we have seen that investors are growing more cautious towards investing in startups. Markets have also not taken the IPOs of several startups very positively. How do you see the future of fintech in India?  Ans: >As penetration levels remain low, fintechs continues to be an opportunity  >Just about 2% of India has access to the equity markets  >In the mid and long-term cycle, number of people using fintech products will go up  Q: In this, how do you see the role of Bharat – rural India? Ans: >As India’s per capita GDP goes up, the bulk of the growth will come from rural India  >Hope India doesn’t follow the China-way of urbanisation  >Expect backward immigration into rural economies in the future Q: We have seen that inflation in India has been quite high in the past few quarters. How do you think in the coming days it will impact the markets? Have the markets already factored it in? How do you think markets to behave in the near future?  Ans: >When inflation peaks, it’s not a one or two quarter phenomenon, but last for years >Inflation is likely to stay high for a while now. Interest rates will be up   >If interest rates remain elevated and continue on the current trajectory, it will have significant impact on the consumption on the country, and in turn the stock market Q: Recently, Sebi introduced this mechanism called ASBA, where the funds are blocked in the account of an applicant of an IPO. Do you think it will have a positive impact on upcoming IPOs?   Ans: >No sure if Sebi’s Application Supported by Blocked Amount (ASBA) can have a positive impact >With ASBA, the amount of money available for IPOs will go down  >IPOs should not be the dumping ground for early investors, PEs, VCs, foreign investors, promoters etc to retail  >More opportunities and valuations should be provided for retail investors to participat Q: Where do you think the next wave of innovation in retail investment will come from? Which sectors do you think is going to be on the forefront of it?  Ans: >Expect more innovative companies list on the exchanges >Expects to see more innovative tech companies than just services play  >Technologies around climate is going to become a significant sector in the next 10-20 years, like geo-engineering and companies that help alleviate climate change etc

Indian equity markets’ performance in Samvat 2078 is poised to be the worst in seven years with a near 2% slide each in benchmark Sensex and Nifty indices. This comes after Samvat 2071 when the two frontline indices had dropped 4% and 3%, respectively. Analysts attribute the dismal performance in Samvat 2078 to the geopolitical tensions that led to spiralling inflation and hawkish action from global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve. Speaking to Business Standard, G Chokkalingam, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, Equinomics Research says, Ukraine war unexpected; rate hikes dampened sentiment. $20 trillion stimulus globally to fight Covid created inflationary pressures. Key risks: Geopolitical situation, oil prices. Expect 15% market return in Samvat 2079.  The underperformance in Samvat 2078 was sharper in the broader markets, especially in the BSE midcap index, which lost 3%. However, among stocks, defence PSUs, along with Adani and Tata group shares firmly defied the weak broader market. Around 207 scrips outperformed the index in Samvat 2078, of which 143 stocks gained over 10%. Moreover, Adani Power, Adani Total Gas, Adani Enterprises and defence PSUs – Bharat Dynamics and Mazagaon Dock Shipbuilders – saw their market price more than double during Samvat 2078. Nifty majors ITC and Mahindra & Mahindra, meanwhile, surged 54% and 48%, respectively. From sectors, the power pack gained the most, followed by capital goods, FMCG and automobiles. On the flip side, realty, IT, metal, healthcare and consumer durables were the top laggards. Going forward, experts are betting on select pockets along with small-cap stocks that maintained a lead over frontline indices in Samvat 2078 with a 1% gain. Chokkalingam of Equinomics Research suggests that investors should avoid cement, steel; but he is bullish on telecom. Banks - private & PSU; select pharma stocks should do well. His dark horse - expect massive wealth creation in smallcaps.  That said, analysts caution against the near-term texture of the market, which is likely to remain volatile. As per HSBC Global, the US Fed’s continued hawkish stance, rising dollar and the prospect of recession in the US and Eurozone paint a negative outlook for equities in the near term. "While India may not be immune to such risk aversion, we see several positives too, and would view market volatility as a good buying opportunity in structurally winning businesses" - HSBC Global That said, global trends will guide the markets today. The Q2 earnings of index majors – Reliance Industries, Hindustan Unilever, Bajaj Finserv and Ambuja Cement will also be on the Street’s radar. 

Star Alliance is the world’s largest alliance of airlines with 26 carriers under its wings. It has a presence in 184 countries, and it boasts of a fleet size of 5003 aircraft which land and take off from 1294 airports. How Star Alliance came into being In 1997, five airlines -- United, Lufthansa, Air Canada, SAS, and Thai Airways -- came together to create a network to ensure that people can travel to any major global city without the need for separate tickets. Star Alliance network currently offers more than 10,000 daily flights. The Alliance’s combined fleets also serve over more than 50 hub airports. Each airline that is part of Star Alliance has its own hub for important routes. Some of the notable hubs are Frankfurt Airport, Istanbul Airport, Beijing Capital Airport etc.,   The key benefits Apart from the seamless connectivity, Star Alliance members provide several benefits under its two tiers -- Gold and Silver. Gold benefits include, priority airport check-in, extra baggage allowance, lounge access among others. Passengers cannot enroll in the Star Alliance directly, but can join the Alliance by enrolling in a member airline’s frequent flyer program. A frequent flyer program is a loyalty program offered by airlines, where passengers can get rewarded in points based on the miles covered, segments etc. Flyers can redeem the points later for air travel and other purposes. Usually, the Gold status for Star Alliance is given to customers who have reached the highest level of a member airline's frequent-flyer program. Air India has been a member of Star Alliance since 2015. The grouping’s chief executive recently said that the airline under the Tata Group has an opportunity to enhance its product and services to better leverage the opportunities offered by airline memberships and digital add-ons from Star Alliance.

Just over three months after a helicopter went down into Arabian sea near Bombay High leaving four dead, another chopper carrying pilgrims crashed into the hills in Uttarakhand killing seven on-board. Weather was adverse in both the cases and pilots were also new to the machines. These two mishaps and some recent emergency landings -- including the one involving UP CM Yogi Adityanath in June -- raise one question? Is India’s civil helicopter landscape being regulated efficiently? And what will be its future like as the government ramps up the infrastructure to give a leg up to the sector?    The government with the help of private players is trying to make helicopter rides affordable for everyone. But such a ride still remains a distant dream for a large section of the population. Two back-to-back reports from prominent international organisations have put figures to India’s successes and shortcomings in its fight against poverty. A World Bank report said that the pandemic pushed 56 million Indians into poverty. While a UNDP report said that 415 million Indians were taken out of poverty between 2005-06 and 2019-20 -- a period of 15 years till the pandemic struck. Get an insight into India’s prolonged struggle against poverty and its by-products like malnutrition. India’s ability to rein-in poverty will determine its economic growth and a better per capita GDP. Moving on, equity markets across the globe underwent a roller-coaster ride in the Samvat 2078. And as we enter Samvat 2079, analysts believe that the domestic market’s outperformance against global peers will sustain as fundamentals and profitability of Indian corporate improves. We guide you through what top brokerages are betting on this Samvat and the way ahead for markets. From markets lets move on to banking. To ensure financial inclusion, banks are opening specialised branches for delivering digital banking products and services. These paperless branches are being called digital banking units. Lets know more about it in episode of the podcast. 

an uncontrolled hard landing on a snow-clad mountain base made for Char Dham Yatra. In this May 31st incident, the helicopter tried to land and bounced and then landed at the helipad of Kedarnath temple. Aviation regulator Directorate General of Civil Aviation was quick to launch a probe. It also issued an operational advisory to all helicopter operators, demanding strict compliance with safety standards and warned of strict enforcement action against operators and personnel found responsible for such incidents. The regulator also said that a spot check would be conducted. It also said that all operators had to ensure that their pilots were sufficiently qualified. An audit followed. And three months later, in August, the DGCA imposed a fine of 5 lakh rupees each on five helicopter operators, which had been carrying tourists to Kedarnath Dham, for flight disturbances. It also suspended officials of two other operators for three months for violating safety rules.   But just four months later, on this Tuesday,  seven people lost their lives when a helicopter ferrying pilgrims from the Kedarnath temple crashed into a hill amid poor visibility. Pilot too was among the dead. Reports have it that the ill-fated helicopter hit the base of a hill due to poor visibility. The DGCA has launched an investigation into the incident. According to reports, the owner of the helicopter, Aryan Aviation, was previously fined by the regulator for violating norms after a hard-landing in May. Industry experts have told the media that Tuesday's helicopter crash and the fatal Pawan Hans accident near Bombay High in June have highlighted the gaps in standards.  According to them, insufficient updates in training and familiarisation were evident in both accidents, which involved senior pilots who had shifted to flying a new aircraft type only a short period of time before the crash. The pilots involved in these accidents had relatively little experience on the machines that crashed. For example, the pilot in Tuesday's crash had reportedly been an offshore pilot for close to 15 years and mostly flown multi-engine aircraft. He had joined Aryan Aviation only in September, just a month before the crash, and began flying a single-engine helicopter. Against this backdrop, one industry expert told the media that the crucial question was what kind of recurrent training had the pilot been provided to make him proficient in hill-flying. Recurrent training refers to refresher courses that pilots must go through on a regular basis. For example, the Federal Aviation Administration of the US has specific regulations addressing the type, quantity, and frequency of recurrent training required for pilots and crewmembers. Data also points to an urgent need for a comprehensive training and standardisation review. According to a report published on Statista on civil helicopter accidents in India between financial years 2006 and 2019, while loss of control was the most common cause of accidents, most of them were not fatal. Instead, loss of visual reference caused the most fatal accidents. A total of 47 accidents occurred in the fourteen years, with 21 of them being fatal. Loss of visual reference is a situation in which the pilot has lost reference to the horizon or ground. Research by US aviation experts has found that it is either the pilot's decisions or lack of attention that is most commonly associated with such a condition occurring. Thus, they suggest that dealing with loss of visual reference needs to be a part of a pilot's ongoing training, instead of being limited only to the initial training phase. Pilot decisions that are likely to cause such a condition include continuing operations in adverse weather. The Indian civil helicopter market is nascent. In fact, reports last year had indicated that it might even be diminishing in size. Helicopter operations in India are well below its potential, even as their requirement has