More or Less: Behind the Stats

Can you measure your popularity – or that of anyone or anything – by the number of results that an internet search generates? Tim Harford points the finger at lazy journalists. Plus, a professor of economics assesses the accuracy of a groundhog’s weather forecasts, made famous by the Hollywood film Groundhog Day. This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.

How do you measure a famine? Following the UN’s recent announcement that famine conditions have ended in Somalia, More or Less explores what the definition of a famine is – and how definite a definition it is. Tim Harford hears from Grainne Moloney, head of the UN’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit and Professor Stephen Devereux from the Institute of Development Studies. Also in the programme: Muhammed Ali’s boxing trainer, Angelo Dundee, was arguably one of sport’s greatest behind-the-scenes figures. But did he really deliberately tear Ali’s boxing glove to win the star crucial recovery time in his 1963 fight against Sir Henry Cooper? Tim Harford gets out his stopwatch for a simple exercise in counting. This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Tim Harford investigates one of the most popular questions from More or Less listeners: “Are there more people alive today than have ever lived?” It is a zombie statistic that every time it is laid to rest it rises again. He also looks at whether science fiction writer Arthur C Clarke was right when he suggested that behind every living person are 30 ghosts. He also investigates the strange story of Michelle Obama’s shopping trip to a lingerie store in New York. Can she really have spent $50,000 on underwear? This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Which are the world’s biggest cities, and what are their populations? Two simple questions that we discover are surprisingly difficult to answer. Plus, has the world got heavier or lighter since the industrial revolution? It’s a question posed by a More or Less listener that got us wondering, too. Dr Chris Smith, part of a group of Cambridge University researchers, known as the Naked Scientists, reckons he’s worked out the answer. This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.

A four-year bet about global warming between two scientists is settled. In 2008, after there had been no new record for the global average temperature set since 1998, David Whitehouse and James Annan disagreed over whether there would be a new record by 2011. As the UK Meteorological Office publishes the figures for the past year, presenter Tim Harford brings the two scientists together. Who has won, and does the victory tell us anything about global warming? Plus, Peter Stott from the Met Office tells us how the world’s temperature is measured. Also in the programme: sports statistician Robert Mastrodomenico attempts to predict the results of the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations football tournament. Will his numerical analysis impress the BBC’s African football expert Farayi Mungazi? This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.

President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela thinks the US may have developed a secret technology to give him and other Latin American leaders cancer. He said the fact that several presidents have had cancer is "difficult to explain using the law of probabilities". Is he right? Tim Harford speaks to Dr Eduardo Cazap, president of the Union of International Cancer Control. Plus, it is often said that there are more Malawian doctors in the British city of Manchester than there are in Malawi. Can this be true? And if professionals emigrate is it always bad news for the country they leave? The programme hears from John Lwanda, a Malawian doctor based in the UK; and Robert Guest, author of "Borderless Economics". This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.

High Speed rail - Tim Harford speaks to railway consultant Chris Stokes and Alison Munro from HS2 Ltd. He investigates the different measures of the rise in executive pay with Steve Tatton from Income Data Services and Sarah Wilson from research group Manifest. And resolves a four year-old bet on climate change between climate scientist James Annan and astrophysicist David Whitehouse and Wesley Stephenson looks behind the figures for youth unemployment in Spain.

Tim Harford tackles the use of statistics in court, the average rise in rail fares, infinity and resolves another marital dispute about probability.

A guide to interesting, informative or just plain idiosyncratic numbers of the year. Plus, does probability really exist? Contributors: David Spiegelhalter, Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University; Owen Spottiswoode, Fullfact.org; Tracey Brown from Sense about Science; Jil Matheson, UK Statistics Authority; George Monbiot; Sir Mark Walport, Director of the Wellcome Trust; Money Box presenter Paul Lewis; Sports Statistician, Robert Mastrodomenico; Dr Linda Yeuh Economics Correspondent at Bloomberg; Stand up Mathematician Matt Parker

Tim Harford on income inequality in the UK, and elsewhere. He speaks to Professor Sir Tony Atkinson of Oxford University; Stewart Lansley, author of 'The Cost of Inequality'; and Professor Donald Boudreaux of George Mason University. Also, David Spiegelhalter, the Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University explains why he took on what could be his riskiest venture to date - appearing on BBC One's Winter Wipeout. Plus, the magic of maths with magician and Stanford maths professor Persi Diaconis.

In the week scientists at the Large Hadron Collider announced that the most coveted prize in particle physics - the Higgs boson - may have been found, Tim Harford hears that the statistical significance is being mis-reported. Plus, the difficulties of cornering a market (especially when the commodity is a 1980s plastic doll). And, Tim Harford talks to author Keith Devlin about how Fibonacci revolutionised trade by introducing medieval businessmen to simple arithmetic.

Tim Harford on National Literacy Trust figures and the maths of supermarket price wars. Plus, he continues to scrutinise the popular statistics of the Eurozone crisis - do Italian tax payers really shell out 2 billion euros a year for their politicians to be chauffeured around? And, what are the odds of cracking six double-yolk eggs in a row?

In the week of a nationwide strike over pension changes, Tim Harford explains how the government can make public sector pensions sound generous, at the same time the unions can make them sound small. And he finds out why a Greek national statistician is under suspicion of committing crimes against numbers. Plus, is it really true that there are more Porsche Cayenne owners than tax payers declaring an income of more than 55,000 euros in Greece? Also, are affordable homes affordable? And can the whole world fit on the Isle of Wight? Tim tries to cram his studio full of Radio 4 presenters and producers to test the theory.

In a change to our usual format, we are podcasting Matthew Taylor's "Brain Culture" series. The former Number 10 strategy head looks at politics and mind control, asking if new knowledge about the human brain will allow us to make better choices or leave us open to ever more manipulation . 

In a change to the usual format, we are podcasting Matthew Taylor's "Brain Culture" series. Matthew Taylor’s series “Brain Culture” continues. The former Number 10 head of strategy asks whether Britain’s education system will be changed by new insights into how human brains learn and retain knowledge.