Summary: Volatility of GDP has fallen dramatically over the last 20–30 years in most industrialized economies. In the G–7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and Australia, the magnitude of this so-called moderation was similar but the timing was not. The moderation appeared as early as the early 1970s (e.g., Germany) and as late as the late 1980s (e.g., Canada). The author examines three possible explanations in this eight-country sample. These explanations include better monetary policy, structural changes in inventory management, and a fortuitous yet random period of few economic shocks.
